Wednesday, October 12, 2011

My Thoughts on Adam Montana

While there's still a lot of information that I need to gather on Mr. M I feel confident enough in what I've learned up to this point to state a few things here.

First, I think it's safe to assume that Adam Montana isn't his real name.  That being the case, one has to ask several questions.
  1. Why does he need to remain anonymous?  Honest business people don't usually need to hide their identities.  What is it that Adam Montana is hiding other than his real name?  
  2. Why would anybody want to do business with a man who won't reveal his true identity or location?  
  3. In the event of an RV what guarantees do his VIP members have that they will be able to capitalize on the advantages that their memberships are supposed to provide for them?
Second, contrary to the view that many people have of Adam Montana, he learned about the dinar from his buddy sonny1 and used to be a moderator on Med's dinar site (which is remarkably similar to Adam's blog ... interesting, huh?) which sonny1 helped him build.  Apparently sonny1 and Med had a falling out and it was during that time that Adam launched the Dinar Vets site with his unique anti-pumper approach.  But isn't it odd that a Harvard grad and successful entrepreneur as Adam claims to be would be spending time online as a mod on a dinar forum?  And Adam says that it takes years to cultivate these relationships with people in Iraq and the CBI, and yet just three years ago apparently instead of flying all around the world developing these contacts he was just sitting around at home banning naughty members on Med's forum.  Until he got DV up and running, that is.  Once he did that he threw the Med business model out the window and created his own unique dinar forum approach.

Instead of just pumping the dinar by giving out rates and dates (which is not to say that he didn't make a few flawed predictions from time to time) he would be the "down to earth" guru, keeping people grounded with "straight talk" about the dinar.  You see, Adam's business model is different in that he puts the focus on what investors will need to do following the RV as opposed to boosting dinar sales and getting a commission prior to the RV.  In other words, Adam doesn't pump the dinar, he pumps his products.  This strategy has worked out quite well, as AM has always been a low-baller on the new rate.  He says repeatedly not to expect much more than a dime.  Adam realizes that most investors hold less than a couple million dinar, so an RV at a dime would only give them $200K pre-tax which isn't nearly enough to retire on these days.  So these people will need a post-RV investment plan to build on their RV windfall.  It's really a shrewd approach, and obviously many have fallen for it.

On the Dinar Vets home page it says "over 1000 VIP members can't be wrong".  I'll have to say that the jury is still out on that claim,  but at $17/mo per member that comes to over $17K/mo which translates to well over $200K/yr, and that's just for the VIP membership.  His book Real RV Intel has sold thousands of copies at $30 a pop.  In addition to that Adam has a whole bag of goodies that he sells to VIP members for offshore investing and Operation Get It There (OGIT).   According to Website Outlook, Dinar Vets generates over $50K/yr in ad revenues and the domain name is worth $104K.  Not bad for somebody who won't rule out the possibility of a lop, huh?  

Third, I have it on good authority that AM wasn't old enough to cash in on the Kuwaiti Dinar as he claims in his book "Real RV Intel" .... "I invested in the Kuwaiti dinar at the right time."  While he might think that stating it that way leaves him some wiggle room in the event that it's proven that he couldn't have bought the Kuwaiti dinar in 1991 (he might explain his way out of it by saying that he profited on fluctuations in the Kuwaiti Dinar some time after Desert Storm), the clear implication is that he bought Kuwaiti dinar when it was devalued after Iraq invaded under Saddam Hussein which presumably would have landed him a windfall of up to $3 per dinar.  Had he been one of the few who made a fortune on Kuwait's currency that would of course give him a certain amount of prestige in the Iraqi dinar investment community.  But apparently even the perception of Adam being a savvy currency trader is enough to provide him with that, because to my knowledge he has never offered a shred of proof to back up that claim.

Fourth,  Adam has always insisted that Rudy Coenen is a crook.  While that may be the case (as of now it hasn't been proven one way or the other, even if he IS a douchebag - it's hard to say what Adam's criminal background is until we have a positive ID on the guy) it is striking to me how insistent he is in stating that.   I think the simple explanation is that Rudy's hedge fund is (or was, as the case may be) competition for Adam Montana's post-RV investment plan.  Here's a quote from today's chat at DV.

[kcw] DiNaR DoCtOr If there is a deletion of zeros and my 25k dinar note is worth 21 usd, then will you still provide VIPs with cheaper ways to cash in (participating banks of yours). i.e lower fees? thank you sir
[Adam Montana] DiNaR DoCtOr I'm going to say yes, but keep in mind
[Adam Montana] if that happens, most bets are off

"Most bets are off" IMO means no refunds for VIP or any post-RV products if Iraq doesn't RV.  It is my belief that neither Rudy's hedge fund nor Adam's post-RV investment plan will ever see the light of day.  Ask any tax attorney if they think that Adam's OGIT is legal and see what they say.  In my opinion, if there is to be a substantial RV of the IQD the best course of action would be to simply take that money that you might have used for Adam's VIP and post-RV products and use it to buy more dinar.  For example, instead of paying $17/mo for a couple of years which would equal around $400 buy 250,000 dinar.  If it RVs at a dime you've turned that money in to $25K pre-tax.  Pretty good, huh?  And the money for the post-RV stuff would pay off even better!  I think that's a much better return than you would get on any AM products, and you won't lose any sleep at night worrying about the IRS.  And of course if there's no RV you're not going to lose any money that you wouldn't have already lost paying your VIP membership dues and the other.  You can apply the same logic of course to the (non-refundable) $750 deposit for a seat in Rudy's hedge fund in which case you could buy 600,000 dinar and reel in $60K pre-tax.  (Note: I'm not advocating the purchase of more dinar here.  I'm simply pointing out the flawed reasoning behind what AM and Rudy are offering.)

Last year Adam hosted a conference call with his buddy sonny1 and a respected dinar researcher named Scooter and some tax expert.  During the call he mentioned the possibility that the windfall from the RV would be taxed at 70% as a lottery tax.  This was something that he had previously relayed to his VIP crowd, knowing that they would no doubt talk about it outside of the VIP forum and scare other investors into joining VIP as a way of avoiding excessive taxation on their gains.  This is a common tactic with Adam.  Everything is geared toward selling the VIP membership.  After reading through the figures I posted above I'm sure you'll understand why. 

Another thing that Adam claims is that he has negotiated a better cash in rate for his members than they will be able to get on their own through any bank or dinar dealer.  I would suggest that you go to a bank manager (or several managers if you want more than one opinion) and tell them that you have a large group of dinar investors who will be cashing in their dinar when it revalues, and you would like to negotiate the best deal possible on their behalf for when they cash in.  My guess is that they'll look at you like you're asking them if they can convert currency from Mars and what the fees would be.  They'll no doubt respond in a very dismissive manner because they believe that this dinar investment is a scam.  Okay you might get lucky and happen to stumble upon one of the few who doesn't but come on .... do you really believe that Adam Montana has negotiated anything dinar related with anybody in the banking industry which has repeatedly issued disclaimers and warnings about the Iraqi dinar investment scam?     

In summation, Adam obviously has his reasons for remaining anonymous.  Whether it's to cover up lies that he has told about himself or to avoid accountability to his members or both I don't know.  But I would be very reluctant to invest money with anybody who can't tell you their name and location.  In addition he has a post-RV tax avoidance program that should make any reasonable investor nervous from a legal standpoint.  If you choose to invest any money with him my advice would be the same as my advice on buying dinar - don't send him any money that you can't afford to lose.

I have other things that I could share but I'm waiting for confirmation.  One thing I know about Adam is that he likes to use the threat of legal action to control what is said about him.  In the meantime you might want to check out this link.  This is a site where they investigate dinar gurus and dealers based on what is displayed on the internet.  Very interesting reading.

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