Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Ghosts of RV Past

In the famous Dickens novella "A Christmas Carol" Ebenezer Scrooge encountered the ghost of Christmas past as he was confronted with his evil deeds.  Well I thought this Christmas might be a good time to take a look at an old conference call featuring convicted dinar fraud Rudolph Coenen. 

In this interview from three years ago Rudy says that he trades the mark.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1-ryajHTxE (16-19 minutes in)  Problem is the mark was replaced by the euro as the official currency of Germany 15 years ago.  How did we miss that?  The guy sounded so convincing.  It seems that we were fixated on his apparent expertise and didn't bother to factcheck what he was saying.  Lesson learned.  When you hear a guru sharing their vast knowledge of all things financial with you in a conference call, blogtalk broadcast, video presentation, or YouTube video just remember that this guy Rudolph Coenen was indicted and convicted for defrauding dinar investors.  Among the lies he told were:
  1. He served and was wounded in Desert Storm
  2. He served as VP of foreign currencies at J. P. Morgan Chase
  3. The currency reform plan of the CBI is a revaluation
  4. He was establishing a hedge fund for dinar investors for post-RV investments

I have to admit that I was fooled for awhile.  Not everybody was taken in by Rudy, however.  One of my readers who goes by DaveD called him a fraud long before the authorities took action.  In this thread he posted by the name of Stew and called the douchebag on his BS. 

While we're at it, we might as well go back and listen to some calls conducted by the alleged co-conspirators Brad Huebner and Charlie Emmenecker, who are once again awaiting trial on similar charges.


$23.8 million in dinar sales would equal over 10,000 people if the average purchase was 2 million dinar.  That's a lot of people to defraud, don't you agree?  No doubt many of them bought after listening to Rudy on their calls.  (They've removed the Rudy calls from their archives for obvious reasons.) 

Once again we see the need to stick with verifiable facts rather than following gurus.  It's your money, folks.  Be careful with it.

Merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous new year to one and all (except for the scammers).


Saturday, December 21, 2013

BH Group Re-Indicted

From the Toledo Blade:

As federal prosecutors had promised, new indictments were handed up this week against three Toledo businessmen accused in a $23-million fraud scheme. 

Bradford L. Huebner, 66, of Ottawa Hills, Charles N. Emmenecker, 66, of Sylvania, and Michael L. Teadt, 67, of Maumee were indicted by a federal grand jury Wednesday in connection with the sale of Iraqi dinar currency and two allegedly nonexistent hedge funds.

All three are charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and wire fraud, while Mr. Huebner, owner of BH Group in Toledo, also faces multiple counts of money laundering and structuring financial transactions to evade reporting requirements.

The trio were originally indicted on similar charges in 2012, but on Nov. 27 — just days before their trial in U.S. District Court was to begin — Judge Jack Zouhary “regretfully” dismissed the indictment, citing a technicality raised by defense attorneys.

Steven M. Dettelbach, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Ohio, said in a news release that investors lost some $23.8 million from dinar sales and more than $700,000 from the sale of nonexistent hedge fund seats and placements.

Beginning in 2010, the trio allegedly made false statements to investors about the U.S. Treasury Department’s holdings of dinar and involvement in the Iraqi dinar investment market.

“These defendants made false statements time and again to convince people to part with their savings and hard-earned cash,” he said. “The fact that they falsely claimed one member of the conspiracy was wounded while fighting in Iraq is particularly egregious.”

A fourth co-defendant, Rudolph Coenen, 47, of Jacksonville, Fla. pleaded guilty in April to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, and five counts of money laundering, but he has not yet been sentenced. Coenen owned Bayshore Capital Investments LLC in Jacksonville.


Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Let's Talk About Iraq

The vast majority of my posts have been about scammers, lies, and numbers regarding currency valuation.  But I think we need to remember that we're also talking about a country.  The IQD is the currency of Iraq, and it's often stated that a currency is only as good as the government behind it.  According to this chart there are only six countries with more corruption than Iraq.


Currencies tend to reflect the confidence in the country behind them.  What is Iraq like today?  Is it blossoming into the quasi-paradise of its neighbors in Kuwait or United Arab Emirates?  It is becoming the land of bounty, the reborn Babylon of old?  Well according to this article, not even close. 


Since coalition forces left Iraq the country has slid into the cultural abyss. How anybody could take an honest look at today's Iraq and conclude that they're going to have one of the most valuable currencies in the world in the forseeable future is mind-boggling.  The gurus won't tell you this, but Iraq is a disaster.  Far from the emerging nirvana presented in your typical dinar conference call, this is a country that is struggling to avoid civil war and a total collapse into a failed state.  Sure, they have tons of oil.  But as the article points out the oil industry produces comparatively few jobs and does little to improve the quality of life for the typical Iraqi.  With widespread unemployment and poverty Iraq is fertile ground for anti-western sentiment and radical ideology. 

In another article newly published, the escalating violence is reported to be responsible for 2,720 deaths since April 24.  (Thanks to CFO for this link too.)


Corruption, deplorable living conditions, widespread carnage from terrorist activity ..... barring a lop, is there really any reason to expect this country's currency to do anything other than languish around a tenth of a penny for the foreseeable future?

Monday, December 16, 2013

A New Twist on the Reno Scam

I just came across this article from Forbes.  It's another great effort from John Wasik whom I've discussed before.  You can find the entire article here.



I recently received a series of emails from a reader describing one of the most convoluted and troubling stories I’ve heard in some time. 

“My 82-year-old mother bought [Iraqi] Dinar about 6 years ago.  A friend of hers told her that their entire church had invested in the Dinar and it was going to make everyone a millionaire very soon.  She didn’t buy a lot of it, but spent about $6,000.  She even got me to put in $1,000.  I have it still sitting in my little safe.  Its fun to look at but I have set my expectations fairly low on this currency ever making me a millionaire. After the stock market took most of my investment in 2008, I decided hard work tended to yield better results with my investments!

A few days ago my brother contacted my mother and told her that he had gotten an inside scoop regarding exchanging the Dinar.  He said that he was told that the US government was currently converting the dinar at an exchange rate of $8.  I questioned this as it just didn’t seem to make sense.  I mean isn’t the government kind of broke right now?  He is not sure either, but says that he is being told this is a definite fact.  At first she was told that she had to fly to Reno, Nevada but that has since changed and now it is to a military base in Washington DC?  So close to the capital!   When I google Dinar Scams – Reno pops up so I am inclined to think that this is just a new location for an old scam.

I have told both my brother and my mother I think this is a scam.  That they will take her passport and her identity.  They will give her back fake Dinar that will look like the real one.  They will then re-sell her Dinar and make a few thousand. But the real bonus is having her identity as well!”

There are a number of fuzzy details that make this set-up even more bizarre, but it smelled fishier than a Maine trawler, so I told her to call law enforcement authorities. She then called the FBI and enrolled her mother in an identity protection service.

“When I spoke to the FBI, they were unaware of the Iraqi Dinar scam (it was kind of like calling in to some local hotline and not terribly helpful).  But the guy I talked to said that typically after the scammers have all the identity information, they fade out of the picture as far as making good on their promise. Right now, the good news is that she is not going to travel to DC as there has been no contract presented for the Dinar purchase.  And so far, no movement on her identity.  I’m just holding my breath….”

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

The Dinar has Revalued

Hundreds of thousands of people have been waiting for the dinar to revalue over the past ten years.  Perhaps millions.  Many have given up, sold their dinar and moved on.  But just like like P.T. Barnum is quoted as saying, there's a sucker born every minute and two to take him.  When one person exits the dinar "investment" it seems that there's always somebody new to take their place, and plenty of scammers to service the RV dreams of the newbie. 

The fact is the dinar has already revalued.  No, I'm not doing the guru "intel" thing where they say we're just waiting on the activation.  I'm going by established and verifiable facts.  In the following chart you can see that there was a substantial increase in the value of about 20% from Nov.1, 2006 to Jan. 2, 2009.  That was an increase of about 9% a year.  (Chart is taken from XE.com)  The CBI parted from their policy of exchange rate stability for 26 months and went to a crawling peg regime as a means of reducing the rate of inflation.  They then returned to their policy of stability and have followed that policy for five years now.

(These charts show the rate of currency vs. the USD so as the line descends the value is increasing.  I tried to make it simpler by using the inverse but the charts didn't display right.)

(12-18-2013  UPDATE!!!  I took the figure of 20% from the US Treasury document I've cited in the past, but according to the XE chart it's closer to a 26% increase.  The point I'm making in this post isn't affected by the 6% difference, but I always try to be as factual as possible and felt obligated to address this.  Whether it's 20% or 26% though, it was a big revaluation and a greater one is extremely unlikely.)

Another revaluation that received a lot of attention in recent years was that of the India rupee.  From July of 2006 to January of 2008 it too increased in value about 20%.  XE Chart

This is typically how major revaluations are carried out.  When I asked currency expert John Jagerson about the largest revaluation in history in my first interview with him two years ago, he responded that it was the ongoing revaluation of the Chinese yuon which at that time had revalued at about 30% since July of 2005.  In the two years since that interview the yuon has added another 5% against the USD for a total revaluation of 35% or so over an eight year period. 


That's an increase of about 4.1% per year, and it's the largest RV in history.  Think about that for a minute.  If the largest RV in history only yielded an increase of 4.1% a year, and the RV of the IQD yielded about 9% a year, why would anybody expect a return of 100,000% or more with the IQD now?  The increase from 2006 to 2009 was huge as far as currencies go.  If you got in early and didn't pay too much of a markup you might have made a few bucks.  But if you bought after Jan. 1, 2009 you missed it.  I missed it, too.  I never even heard of the dinar until after the RV took place. 

The dinar community has been sold a bill of goods.  They've been convinced that a revaluation of impossible magnitude is forthcoming.  It's not.  The big revaluation has already occurred.  They have now stabilized the exchange rate and the focus is on redenomination rather than revaluation.  All of the articles talking about deleting the zeros or removing the zeros are talking about redenomination, not revaluation.  Their focus is now on replacing the IQD with a new dinar and demonetizing the IQD.  The dinar community calls that a lop, and like it or not that's the CBI's stated plan for the IQD.  When it will happen I can't say.  It might never happen for all we know.  But whether they lop or not, to expect any increase beyond the one from 2006-2009 is wishful thinking. 

And to our friend Dinarbeleiver (who seems to confuse billions with trillions), if you're saying that a country's M2 doesn't prevent them from revaluing their currency I actually agree.  If Iraq wanted to start bumping the value up less than 1% a month like they did from 2006-2009 I'm sure they could do that by simply stabilizing the M2 while their reserves grow.  They could certainly raise the value 4.1% a year like China has with that approach.  The question is why would they want to?  What would they accomplish by doing that?  China raised the value because of international pressure.  Iraq raised the value to combat inflation.  Neither one of those are factors with Iraq today.  But if you're saying what you appear to be saying that the M2 is irrelevant I would ask how you draw that conclusion from anything discussed here?  Nobody here said that Iraq isn't capable of increasing the value in the sense of a conventional revaluation of a few % here and there.  The consensus here is that Iraq isn't capable of revaluing to an extent that would make anybody rich, and nothing in any previous revaluation would contradict that.  Cheers!


Friday, December 6, 2013

December Update

Well here we are in December.  Boy has this year gone by fast, and still no RV!?!?!??  What up wit' dat?  I'm starting to have my doubts about this.  LOL!!!

Actually I'm just mimicking what I've read on many of the dinar forums.  People are starting to express their doubts more freely than in the past, and this blog's readership has surpassed every expectation I had when I started writing about these douchebags two years ago.  A couple of weeks ago the total views hit half a million.  I realize that many of them are repeaters but many aren't, too.  I'd estimate that upwards of 30,000 people have visited this blog.  I've recently seen a week where the daily average was almost 2,000 hits!  For a lopper site that's unheard of.  I'd love to attribute that to my wit, charm, and brilliant intellect, but I'd say that's probably an overreach.  People are looking for answers and when they type in dinar related keywords my blog shows up in the results.  Here are a few examples of keywords used to draw people to the blog.

dinar scams
is the dinar a hoax
tony renfrow
dinar scam
is the dinar a scam
tony breitling
dinar rv scam
dinar scam 2013
dinar guru adam montana

They wouldn't come here if they didn't suspect that something is up.  The popularity of the blog is surely more of a testament to the disillusionment of dinarians than it is to any of my skills.  Regardless of why, I'm happy to see the awakening taking place.

One of my readers sent me this recently:

I work at a call center for one of the "major four banks" that's supposedly participating in the IQD buy-backs (we're not, of course).  Specifically, I'm a specialist in foreign currency.  You know, I sell Euros to people who are going on European cruises and give out exchange rates.  Or at least, that's mostly what I do.  I'd say around 15-25% of our phone calls are regarding currency speculation.  It's frustrating to deal with them because when presented with facts, they respond by accusing us of being part of a conspiracy (one caller said to my coworker "I know you guys have a gag order or whatever and can't talk about it...").  Plus, it's a sales department.  We have goals to meet and they are wasting our time with these pipe dreams! 
This is the blog I would write if I didn't think I'd get fired for posting that stuff.  This bank takes it's reputation very seriously and doesn't stand for their employees blogging about work.  I was especially intrigued by your post regarding revenue from web traffic.  That hadn't occurred to me at all.
I've shared your blog with a bunch of my coworkers and we're all getting a big kick out of it.  I told them, "I'm gonna email that guy and tell him he's my hero!"

And another one sent this:

I stumbled upon your website a few days ago and have read some of your blog entries.  I must cheer your efforts and congratulate you for your objective and logical reasoning while using verifiable evidence.

I must tell you a quick anecdote that you may think is too unbelievable to be true; I assure you, it isn’t!  I have a friend that invested in the Iraqi Dinar in January 2013.  She is in the lower middle income bracket and lives in Vancouver, BC.  She flew to Nevada in order to meet a rather large congregation of fellow ‘investors’ from Florida, Australia, and England.  She asked me for financial aid in order to help pay her rent in Vancouver so her 18-year-old son would not have to live without a roof over his head.  I lent her $1,200.00 in mid February.  I am completely astonished that she is still living out of her suitcase in a Nevada motel awaiting this hypothetical RV.  I email her every few weeks requesting an update, however, she always responds with the same old stories… “soon, soon, soon…”.  I have yet to receive a single dime of my owed monies.

Beyond the good deeds of your website, it truly is a sad reality that some very good-natured people get caught up in this Dinar scam!  I want to thank you for espousing the truth respecting this global investment scam and truly wish that more people come to their senses after reading your blog entries.

I get emails along these lines frequently, but these two stood out as they reveal the extent of the lunacy that is the RV myth.  While I'm amazed at this kind of insanity, I'm equally baffled as I read on the boards about people who have been waiting for the RV for five years or more.  Seriously?  How long does it take to catch on, guys?  It took me less than two years and I thought I was slow.  I can't imagine people listening in on conference calls, logging on to their favorite dinar site, and checking the CBI website every day, week after week, month after month, year after year since 2008 or so.  It's time to move on, people. 

In November a guru named TD shook a lot of people up with this:

11-23-2013 Iraq is making it known publicly to the world their intentions be absolute and put to rest whether or not there will be a LOP...and he also confirmed (emphatically !!) that the LOP of the existing notes will be done.

A concerned caller asked BGG about this and his response was:

there are plenty of anti-pumpers as well as there are pumpers being paid by the same dealers ... a dealer makes 20% on the way in and 20% on the way out, and they don't care which direction you're going ..... technically it can't happen ..... they would have identical notes with two different values in different places - that's just not gonna happen

Well first of all, I've probably been called an anti-pumper as much as anybody, and no dealer has ever offered me a stinking dime.  It's nonsense to say that people are being paid to bash the dinar.  Dealers have no trouble buying the stuff from suppliers.  If they did, it wouldn't be such a hassle selling it back to them.  The only reason they offer a buyback program in the first place is to ease liquidity concerns on the part of speculators since they can no longer sell them to the banks.

And second, the notes wouldn't be identical in a lop.  The new notes would be issued in lower denominations and they would have different designs as the lop articles have clearly pointed out.  They will also have the Kurdish language on them.  And most redenominations over the past 50 years have been carried out exactly this way.  Two series of notes with different valuations co-exist for a time until the old notes are no longer in circulation.  Anybody who has researched the history of redenominations knows this.  BGG is either ignorant or lying. 

But the biggest buzz in November was the announcement of the CBI's bond initiative.  Apparently they're going to begin using bonds as a means of managing the internal exchange rate and controlling inflation and interest rates.  Some are reading RV into this of course, since they assume that it will lead to a reduction in the money supply.  I really don't see any more reason to expect a reduction in the money supply with bonds than we've seen in all the years that they used the actions to accomplish their monetary objectives.  It's just a monetary policy change, like when our Federal Reserve raises or lowers interest rates or pursues quantitative easing.  Anybody here ever seen any big celebration taking place over any of that?

In closing, I'd like to issue a reminder that this is the time of year when the gurus talk about the RV making it a very merry Christmas.  They say that every year and they're always wrong.  They'll be wrong again this December, because the CBI's policy is stability.  But I'd still like to wish all of my readers a Merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous new year.
Happy Holidays!!!

Monday, December 2, 2013

Dinar Fraud Case Dismissed

I just got got word about this case being dismissed on a technicality.  It looks like they intend to re-indict.  I'll update as more info comes in.


Federal indictments charging three Toledo businessmen with duping investors out of millions of dollars in the sale of Iraqi currency and hedge fund shares were dismissed Wednesday on a technicality.
U.S. District Court Judge Jack Zouhary dismissed the indictments against Bradford L. Huebner, 66, of Ottawa Hills; Charles Emmenecker, 66, of Sylvania, and Michael Teadt, 67, of Maumee citing speedy trial concerns raised by defense attorneys for the trio. Their case had been scheduled to go to trial Monday.
Mike Tobin, spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office, said the development has delayed the trial again.
“We fully intend to seek to re-indict this case at the earliest possible time,” Mr. Tobin said. “It was surprising to see defendants who were repeatedly asking for delays in their trial date complaining that their trial was not speedy enough.”
Attorney Rick Kerger, who represents Mr. Huebner, said the defense team was prepared to go to trial next week, but wanted to raise the speedy trial violation before trial rather than after.
“When we became aware that there existed a basis to obtain a dismissal of the indictment, we were really duty-bound to raise it,” Mr. Kerger said.
While it was the defense that asked for several continuances in their clients’ cases, Mr. Kerger said the court did not use the required language in granting the continuances, which resulted in the dismissal.
“Nobody’s implying any bad faith on the part of the government, the court, or anybody, and it is a technicality, but it is a technicality that is sufficiently important that led to the dismissal of the indictment,” Mr. Kerger said.
Judge Zouhary granted the dismissal “regretfully.”
“As should be obvious, this court is most reluctant to grant this motion, which only serves to delay, not speed, the trial of this case,” he wrote in a 10-page opinion. “Defendants, on the eve of trial, filed a motion to dismiss knowing a dismissal will likely result in another indictment which will restart the clock.
“For what purpose? To delay the inevitable trial? How does this make sense?” he asked.
Mr. Heubner, the owner of BH Group, 17 N. St. Clair St., and two of his employees — Mr. Teadt and Mr. Emmenecker — had been charged with conspiring to defraud investors in the sale of Iraqi currency, called dinar, and in the sale of hedge fund shares between August, 2010, and September, 2012, resulting in losses of more than $23 million.
A fourth co-defendant, Rudolph M. Coenen, 47, of Jacksonville pleaded guilty last April to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, and five counts of money laundering. The owner of Bayshore Capital Investments LLC in Jacksonville, Coenen has not been sentenced.


Wednesday, November 27, 2013

An International Economist?

Recently a woman named Marisol Luna who claims to be an international economist has been posting on Dinar Recaps and other sites.  Among other observations, she said "While Kuwait was invaded by Saddam he took his currencies out and its value plunged from almost $4.00 dollars per Kuwait Dinar to .05 cents as much. Free from Saddam and regaining control and opening again National Bank of Kuwait honoring the currency at original value of $3.64+. About three months later they issue the new Kuwait Dinar and everyone was happy. New millionaires were born with this process."

I've repeatedly debunked this myth of the millionaire-making Kuwaiti RV. You couldn't buy Kuwaiti dinar from any bank at anything less than the official value of $3 + ... EVER!!! And even if you were fortunate (?) enough to be in the Arab world during Desert Storm, in order to buy enough Kuwaiti dinar at 5 cents on the black market to make a million dollars you would have needed to have about $15,000 in cash that you were willing to gamble on the currency of a country under Saddam's control with the Iraqi dinar as the official currency.  If you bought at a dime it would require $30,000 cash.  At 15 cents $45,000 ..... etc.  To date not one person has provided evidence of anybody making millions on the Kuwaiti dinar during Desert Storm.  I'm sure some people made a few thousand here and there, but millions?  Rubbish!

Of course her pro-RV post was met with unanimous approval and praise at Dinar Recaps since "negative" posts and critical thinking are not allowed.  They are allowed here, however.  Ms. Luna's lengthy explanation of why Iraq would RV was basically a textbook example of a guru taking perfectly legit IMF documents and twisting everything about necessary reforms to mean they're gonna RV and make us rich!  Here's a good example:

Paragraph 8 “Developing a stronger financial sector development will require moving away from the current model in which weak state-owned banks dominate the financial sector and enjoy favorable treatment vis-a-vis private banks. A solid banking system that can support growth and employment will require the full financial and operational restructuring of state-owned banks and creating a level playing field for both private and public banks.


I looked around and didn't find anything on Ms. Luna other than her Facebook and Twitter pages which included no economics credentials. About that time somebody emailed me this link.

I guess the reason I didn't find it is because I wasn't searching in Spanish. If you are fluent in Spanish you won't need a translator, but I'm not so I ran it through Google Translator and the gist of this is that a consumer protection site in Puerto Rico investigated Ms. Luna and wasn't too impressed to say the least. So much for that.

Folks, no legit economist, investment adviser, or currency expert is going to endorse the dinar investment. They'd be the laughing stock of their chosen profession. When you hear somebody claiming to be one of the above and they're touting the incredible potential of the IQD you know right away that something's amiss.

UPDATE!!!  Thanks to Brian who provided the link to this chart.  I think my readers are the smartest people in the dinar world.  In case you don't know, "fils" are divisions of the Kuwaiti dinar into thousandths.  What this chart shows basically is that the Kuwaiti dinar's official value from 1986-2008 was $3.25 - $3.70.  ($1/.307 - $1/.270)

Monday, November 18, 2013

Negative Nellies

The following was posted at Dinar Recaps on Nov. 3.  I thought it presented an excellent opportunity to rebut some of these points and help people to understand why the dinar investment is considered a scam.  My comments will follow the article.


For the “Negative Nellies” who told us the Dinar is a Scam

We’ve all heard from someone that  investing in the dinar is a scam:
If there is a scam going on, it is the dream stealers trying to rob you of hope. In actuality, they are missing out on the blessings that come with dream building with one’s spouse. That alone is very rewarding, and very telling, into how well two soulmates are really thinking on the same page.
 If there is a scam going on, it’s the US govt, Iragi govt and UN holding back info … delaying … the invitable. But post RV/RI you’ll be praised for your insite into this investment by the nay-sayers. (Hindsite investors).
You want an example of a scam? Play the lottery. The odds of winning are astronomically against you. That scam plays on the hopes of the un-informed, or desperate, seeking great rewards without understanding the odds. Governments make unimaginable dollars preying on lottery ticket buyers.

Whereas investing in the dinar, we can attempt to track international politics and become somewhat educated on our investment. We are talking the currency of a resource rich country torn by a former dictatorship, war and civil unrest.  In time, this RV/ RI will happen. Maybe not when we expect it, and maybe not in the manner we expect it, but the value of the Iraqi dinar will rise.

And eventually, we will see our financial rewards. But with the lottery, as those little balls keep tumbling, the odds of winning never get any better, and you never gain any additional insight on what numbers to pick, and you have to keep buying more tickets for a fresh “chance to win.”

We’ve all heard it’s risky:
Bunk. The most you can lose in dollars, is the amount invested, and that is only if you actually lose your dinar. That is right … if you misplace the currency. After all, dinar dealers have a buy-back policy, right? 
Does your financial planner or 401K manager have such a policy? ‘Fraid not.

You want to talk risky? Buy into the stock market, without educating yourself. And what can you really learn from a prospectus? And remember, most financial planners are commissioned salespersons. Ask them if they make their living on their commissions, or on the results of the products they invest their clients money into. You’ll be shocked by this scam.

Let’s say you timed the market well, and bought General Dynamics a year ago at about $35/share. And now it is about double that. Forget trading fees, … you doubled. So if you had purchased 5 shares, for $175, you would now have ~$350. Remember these numbers. Double your money in the stock market … but limited realization in terms of dollars gained, but the limited number of dollars invested initially. 100% rate of return in one year.

How about SSI? Counting on this for retirement supplement, now that’s another risky government scam. ‘Nuff said.

 How about Real Estate? Let’s compare it to purchasing dinar. Build a spec-house for 200,000 and try to market it for 300,000. That is a 2:1 ratio. Or buy a foreclosure house. Say EFMV $150,000 purchased at auction for $100,000, plus holding costs and closing costs, so max realized gain is maybe $50,000 – again a 2:1 ratio.
But you may hold longer than anticipated, (more expense) and lower your selling price and only make $25,000 – now you’re at a ratio of say 5:1. That is saying that for every $5 invested, you only made $1.
If in the example, you are upside down in real estate, you’ve invested 150,000 and got out at 125,000. Now you have lost $25,000. Now compare that to the dinar. In the dinar, you only risk what you invest, and to that I take you back to Dinar Dealers buy-back policy. Further, you did not have to start with a $100,000 investment to try to gain $50,000.

How about buying an estate property below EFMV, and needing to sit on it for three years before reselling it. Even if a profit is gained, the rate of return annualized needs to be divided by three. And was there a positive or a negative cashflow on that property for the three years you held it?

Again, compare that to the dinar. The only argument against the dinar here is that the amount invested was stagnant while you held it.

And if you had the amount of your dinar purchase in a CD right now, could you get 2% return? I doubt it. And to get 2% you’re probably looking at a 5 year hold. ‘Nuff said.

We’ve all heard negative news soundbites:
The few soundbites I’ve heard were so trite, they were laughable. That’s not journalism … it’s sensationalism, not credible research. It’s been the blind leading the blind.

What about how long we have to wait for the RI to exchange.
If you are in an employer based retirement system, how long do you have to work, in terms of years, before you become retirement eligible? And what kind of return do you get? Do you know how to track it? Have you done your homework there? Now that might be a risky investment … a lifetime

Oh, you don’t have an employer based retirement system? Okay. Then look into your Roth or traditional IRA or other “paper assets” in your portfolio. What did you say? You don’t have a portfolio? Or did I just hear you say your portfolio was cut in half in the past two years, as well as your annual earnings? Wow. That was a risky investment, … very risky.

We’ve all heard it’s an pyramid scheme:
 Go to work tomorrow to your JOB (just over broke). I’m all for capitalism. I believe in rewarding those that take the calculated risks, those that create jobs for others, those that stabilize local economies. But when you look at the company ladder, well, there is your pyramid at it’s best.

There are the nay-sayers that say the only ones making money on the dinar are the sellers, such as CBI and dinar dealers. Well, time will reveal the truth on that point of contention.

So let’s talk dinar.  100,000 dinar mailed overnight from dinar dealers  is approximately $140, + 24 UPS fee, + $1 for the money order = $165 invested. This is a relatively small amount to invest in anything.

 Presently the rate is $1=1170 IQD, or $0.0008547/dinar (less than 1/10th cent per dinar). But with shipping, etc, ~= $0.000165 (a trifle above 1/10th cent per dinar.) So we’ll call it $0.001 = 1/10th cent per dinar.

If/when there is an Re-V/I/D, look at the numbers. We’ve heard lows of 1IQD at $0.86 to highs of $3.86.( or much higher)  For easy math, I’m just using RV at 1 IQD = $1. That means you $165 investment is now worth $100,000, pretax.

Okay, you’ll have some expense to exchange … minimal in big scheme, but may take your total investment to say $500. So you turn $500 into $99,500 (pretax).
You did not have to risk investing 1,000,000 to make a potential 100,000, or $125,000 to make $25,000.

Better yet, you were not excluded from the opportunity to make this $100,000 because you lacked the $1,000,000 in cash or credit to invest.

And if the increase in the dinar on the currency exchange boards is a gradual float, and not a spike from an RI (not saying this is likely) you will have to decide for yourself when to cash in. But in this scenario, all it needs to do is increase to 1 IQD = 1 penny, and you have a ten fold return on investment, grossing $1000 on a $165 investment. Have your financial planner or realtor or banker deliver that return! Not gonna happen.

Still skeptical? Stay with the gradual float. At a dime, cash in on 25,000 dinar note. Gross $2500 – $165 + fees and tax so say you clear $2000 How is that for a rate of return? Initial investment of $165, net $2000, but n0pot done yet … still holding 75,000 IQD and you’re “playing with house money.” The rate of return calculated on any gain, is infinite … because you already made more than your initial investment on the first cashout.

Now who cares if you have to wait a few years for a float to reach $3.00+. So $3.22 x 75,000IGD = $241,500 (pretax) is pure profit. Understand i am not an advocate of a gradual float, and favor an RI, but wanted to include it in this post, for the negative nellies to chew on as a worst case scenario. I’ll take that return!

Compare the dinar to CDs. No comparison.
Compare the dinar to IRAs/MFs/stocks/bonds, etc. No comparison
Compare the dinar to the lottery. No comparison. How can I say that? In the lottery, the numbers predicate the number of winners, typically one, if any per drawing. But with the dinar, all that exchange are winners. Thus, again I say, no comparison.
Compare the dinar to real estate. I’ve had great returns and can even mathematically show you infinite rates of return, but for the vast majority of people, real estate transactions returns vs the returns on the dinar investment, well … no comparison. Further, how many across the globe are in trouble financially as we speak, because they thought their home was their biggest asset, only to now realize that their mortgage and over-leveraging is eating them up, both financially, and emotionally.
Compare the dinar to pension plans. Took you 20, 25, 30, 35, etc years of your life, and you can only receive pension payments as alloted, under someone elses discression. So, … no comparison.
I’ll conclude with these thoughts.  For the negative nellies that say you were scammed when you bought into the dinar investment, with the $165 they did not invest, they may have purchased them something else. Lets say they bought dinner and a movie for two, or some clothes they’ll only wear a few times …
So when your investment is eventually worth (Example only) $99,500 pretax, I hope they enjoyed the dinner, movie and clothes that now cost them ~ $99,500.

And I’m not done yet. Let’s say you pay your taxes and tithes, and then pay off your remaining mortgage, freeing up that $650/mo payment for the next 180 months of your life. Look at how much “not buying dinar” now cost the negative nellies.

So I’m willing to give up a night out with my wife and new shoes. In fact, the reward potential in my household said … what else can we postpone pre RV/RI, … to not have to postpone life any longer?
If you followed all the way through this post, thanks for reading. I needed to vent. I needed to take the frustrations of listening to negative vibes and multiply that with negative reasoning, to produce a positive outcome.


First, the author states that the lottery is a scam.  Well the lottery commissions around the country notify all participants of the odds of winning.  They don't tell people that they're holding a winning lottery ticket like dinar pumpers have done.  People know when they buy lottery tickets that it's a longshot.  And as one of my readers DaveD has pointed out, somebody who bought a lottery ticket will hit the jackpot, but nobody who holds dinar is going to get rich.  The lottery isn't a scam.  People know it's gambling and they know the odds.  Dinar investors on the other hand are told that this is a blessing from God, that Dick Cheney, the Fed, and the IMF set this RV up just like they set up the Kuwaiti RV, that there's a global currency reset accompanying the RV, that the US Treasury holds trillions of dinar that they will use to pay off the debt after the RV, that the CBI is reducing the money supply, that the lower denoms have already been printed, that the RV is already done, that special cash-in rates have been negotiated with certain banks .... etc.  All lies!

Lottery websites encourage participants to play responsibly.  When have you ever seen a dinar dealer site with the same admonition for dinar investors?  When have you ever seen a dinar dealer site notifying potential investors that the largest RV in history was less than 40%?  When have you ever seen a dinar dealer site mention that the CBI's policy is a stable exchange rate, and that they've announced their intention to demonetize the IQD when they redenominate?

Sure, there are people who ignore the disclaimers from the lottery commissions and spend their rent money  on lottery tickets, but it's not because they were lied to.  It's because they ignore the advisories.  But many dinar investors have spent money that they really can't afford to lose on dinar because they trust somebody who lied to them, and in some cases the liars have a criminal background.

And the statement that the odds in the lottery never improve is completely wrong.  You can improve your odds by buying more tickets.  For example, if there are 20 million possible combinations that means that the odds of hitting the jackpot with one ticket are 20 million to 1.  But if you buy 100 tickets the odds are now 200,000 to 1.  If you buy 2000 tickets the odds are now 10,000 to 1.  I'm not recommending that you do that, but the point is the odds can be improved with the lottery, but the odds of getting rich by owning dinar will never improve no matter how much you spend.  Currencies don't revalue in a way that would make that possible.  So whether you approve of the lottery or not, there is no comparison to the dinar.

Next the author claims that the only way that you can lose all your money on the dinar is if you lose your dinars, because dinar dealers have a buyback policy.  He doesn't mention however that several times in history countries have closed their borders when they redenominated and people outside of the country were unable to participate in the exchange and lost all they spent on the currency.  I'm not saying that this will happen in Iraq, but it has happened before and it's a possibility.

He then goes on to call the stock market, Social Security, and real estate scams.  Let's start with the stock market.  Sure, if you attempt to pick stocks without doing your due diligence you could lose money.  But if you buy the stocks that Warren Buffet is buying over time you will prosper.  If you have an investment plan that constantly buys over the years in good times and bad you will gain, because the market over time trends upward.  Even people who took a hit on their 401K back in 2008 have seen most all of those losses restored as the DOW is near its all-time high, and if they bought on the dip they came out ahead.  Is their risk?  Of course there is.  But the stock market isn't a scam.  It's an investment vehicle that will produce profits over time if used properly.

Social Security?  Well, the future of SSI isn't certain, but for now people who have paid into it are able to receive what they're entitled to.  Personally I'm inclined to agree with Rick Perry, the presidential candidate from 2012 who called it a Ponzi scheme.  But until we run out of new people to pay into it or it becomes insolvent people can still receive their benefits.  It might collapse in the future, and if it does we can officially call it a scam then.  But until that happens there's still a chance to fix the problem before it's too late.  Let's hope our elected representatives are up to the task.  Whether Social Security ultimately fails or not, for 75 years people have been getting what they expected from it based on what they paid into it.  You can't say that for the dinar.

Real Estate?  Historically real estate has provided people with a good way to increase their net worth as they pay off the mortgage on a house that is increasing in value.  The problem is that so many people bought real estate during the housing bubble from 2002-2007 and took a hit.  Many of them should never have been approved for a mortgage in the first place.  Does that make real estate a scam?  Of course not.  There was dishonesty in the lending industry, but real estate isn't a scam unless you buy a home from somebody who doesn't own it, or that has substandard construction, or that has a lien on it that you aren't informed of.  The issue here is fraud.  Anything that is sold via dishonesty, even a legitimate product, is a scam if the reason for purchasing is based on a lie.

That's the issue with the dinar.  As I've stated since I started this blog, if you're buying dinar because you're going to Iraq and need it for purchases it's not a scam.  That's why banks used to offer the exchange service for their customers before speculators started abusing the service.  I've also said that the dinar investment isn't a scam if you only bought it thinking it might outperform other investments.  While I consider that a highly speculative investment, there have been periods of time over the past ten years where the IQD did exactly that.  But come on, how many people have bought dinar from banks and dinar dealers for those reasons?  We all know that people are buying dinar because they think it might make them rich, and that won't happen.  It can't happen.  Not as long as they're on a conventional managed float like all of the other currencies of that region are.  Not as long as they're backing tens of trillions of dinar with their foreign currency reserves at 100%.

The author then goes on to dismiss the spread as inconsequential compared to the incredible returns you'll get from an RV to as little as one cent.  In his example you buy 100,000 dinar for a total expense of $165.  Now, considering that 100,000 dinar is worth less than $86, my math tells me that the spread here is 92%!  Sure, 92% is no big deal if you're going to turn that $165 into anywhere from $1650 to $350,000 which would equal an increase of 1000-350,000%.  But when you consider the fact that RVs of even 50% don't happen and that Iraq's current arrangement of backing about 84 trillion dinar with $80 billion in their currency reserves only allows for an increase of less than 10%, those spreads of 20-90% start to look pretty steep.

The problem in the dinar community is that people who are ignorant about how currency valuations are determined are making investment decisions based on wrong assumptions.  I include myself in that group, because I bought millions of dinar before educating myself in that area.  Thousands of us over the years have gone through this same experience and took our losses after coming to understand how the scam works.  It feeds on misinformation and wrong assumptions.  Assumptions like currencies go up in value as the economy grows.  Assumptions like the dinar is backed by oil.  Assumptions like people made millions on the German deutschmark and the Kuwaiti dinar (they didn't) so the same could happen with the IQD.  The author's numbers are based on impossible events.  You might as well try to calculate how much money you'll make if the US dollar increases in value by 100,000%, or how long it would take you to fly to Mars on a magic carpet.

I'll conclude by saying this.  The CBI has announced their plan to redenominate (lop).  If for some reason that doesn't happen in the next five years, the dinar will not increase in value substantially.  It might go up a percent or two here and there, but the IQD will NEVER be worth as much as 2/10 of a penny no matter how long it exists, and even that much of an increase is very unlikely.  They will replace it before it increases that much.  Chances are it will never be worth more than 1/10 of a penny.  When you consider that the vast majority of dinarians have bought in the last five years after the exchange rate was stabilized and are still in the hole, and when you consider that the chances of an increase high enough to get them out of that hole are not very good, the reality of the scam begins to take shape.


Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Baghdad Invest

Last week a site called Baghdad Invest caused quite a stir as they announced that the IQD has RVd at around 62 cents.  It wouldn't be unusual for this to come from a site like Dinar Recaps, but Baghdad Invest had previously said the RV would never happen so this was coming from a non-pumper.  Well after a weekend of chatter in the dinar world the fun loving folks at Baghdad Invest announced that it was all a hoax designed to show how gullible the dinar community is.  While that comes as no surprise to readers of this blog, I expect it to deflate a few balloons and ruffle a few feathers in the land of the make believe RV.  I had actually thought about doing something like this, but I didn't want to be responsible for anybody buying more dinar.  I have to admit though, it was kind of amusing to see this play out.




Monday, November 4, 2013

November Update

Another month comes and goes, and the dinar world is again listening to the proverbial chirping of crickets.  It appears that the post-Ramadan period produced nothing encouraging for the dinar hopeful, and yet the hopium is still being consumed in mass quantities. 

In reviewing the events of October I really couldn't find much of interest to write about, except for a few things.  First, a certain guru pretty much outed himself in a conference call.  The other day on a whim I decided to listen to a call by a guy called Loechin who has been making the rounds recently. To my amazement he offered his true name and even gave out the URL of his website. His name is Charles Walters and he's an itinerant evangelist.

Charles "Loechin" Walters
559-726-1399 pin 616571# (7 minutes in)

He also mentioned the donate button on his website after talking about the orphanages he works with in places like Bolivia.

During this call he cited TonyTNT as somebody credible, told us that the current rate showing for the IQN (apparently we're not supposed to call it the IQD now) is $25.99 and the VND is around $2. He also insisted that he has negotiated the highest cash in rate with Wells Fargo over the past two years.

For the life of me I can't understand why an established minister of the gospel would jeopardize his credibility and ultimately his ministry on a scam like the revaluation of the Iraqi dinar. It's one thing to hope that the dinar will provide you with some substantial increase, but to say as he did July 17:

"It's been a very exciting day. At 2:15 this afternoon, the United Nations officially announced the revaluation of the Iraqi dinar. At this moment, we are simply awaiting a call to go to the bank. All has been done and all has been completed. From what we are hearing, we could be at the bank as early as tomorrow and as late as Monday."

and this on October 3:

"WOW all the info coming in today has been amazing. Read Eagle1, Tony, and Bluwolf, and you will get most of the info. As of this very moment the rates are still in the $25 plus change, and I think we will see the VNN at $3 plus. Seems like the closer we get someone wants to push the date back well not this time. It can and I believe will go any moment. It's no longer going to be banks closed or open, Tues-Thur stuff. This is off the table now and we are waiting for any second."

I have to admit I'm stumped. Does he really believe this? And if not, why say these things? I don't see any dinar dealer banners or VIP memberships on his sites. The only thing I can figure is he's fishing for donations, but I have to ask "is it really worth it?" When Iraq does eventually get around to redenominating he's going to have a lot to answer for. In that he's hardly alone, but unlike most gurus he has put his name out there and left his dangling backside completely exposed. When the faithful realize that the CBI's plan was always a lop and that there was never a chance of anybody getting rich from buying dinar they're going to be extremely wroth. For his sake I hope he's got a parsonage ready in Bolivia.

Next, many of you will recall a recent post I did about the rumour sites Dinar Recaps and Dinar Guru which feed content from other sites into their sites to draw hits and generate ad revenues.  Well it appears that Breitling took notice and started a similar site of his own less than a week after I posted that and is now encouraging his followers to check it out.  And so it goes .......

2013 Douchebag of the Year
TNT Tony
Third, for the past two years I have presented an award to the Dinar Douchebag of the year.  The first year Dan "Checkmate" Atkinson was the winner.  In 2012 the award was shared by James "Adam Montana" Wolf and Tony "Breitling" Elder.  Well this year wasn't even close so I'm going to award it 2 months early.  TNT Tony ran off and left the pack in his dust with nonsense about a $20+ rate, non-disclosure agreements (NDAs), the Global Currency Reset (GCR), early cash-ins, and Wells Fargo handling the currency exchange (CE) via a 1-800 number despite their insistence that they have no intention of handling the IQD.  All of this was in addition to his weekly intel from high up sources about today or tomorrow being the day for the RV.

Apparently Tony's douchebaggery was even too much for the 2011 winner Dan from PTR, because he cut Tony loose back in the summer.  Now Tony is free to fly solo and pursue the heights of absurdity with his thrice weekly RV updates.  Congrats to TNT for proving that all you need to get ahead in life is a little determination, hard work, creativity, and personality.  Unless of course you're a pathological liar and scammer. 

And finally, out of curiosity I decided to listen to a few broadcasts from this new audio guru who goes by the name Magellan.  If you've been thinking about checking this guy out .... don't bother.  It was pure torture.  First of all the intro to his Blogtalk show is over two minutes long, with a sickening epic film-score musical theme and a dramatic voiceover.  If you can make it through that without puking you then will hear him throw it into marketing gear.  During the shows he made a pitch for Dinar Inc., his iTunes broadcasts, his Facebook and his Twitter pages, and asked people to email him their prayer requests.  Now of course he could have just told people to call him with their prayer requests and he would pray for them, but if he did that he wouldn't get any email addresses to market himself with, now would he? 

The content of the broadcast was filled with the same old recycled pumper BS - the mythical Kuwaiti RV, Iraq can't be a great country with a suppressed currency, oil backs the dinar, Iraq will be the next Dubai, Bush and Cheney set the RV up, Obama is willing to meet with Maliki because he knows about the RV ..... blah blah blah ....  He also claimed that Iraq is constructing the world's tallest building in Basra, although I couldn't find anything more than a conceptual rendering of what would be the tallest building in Iraq.  Wikipedia has an article on tallest buildings and there's no mention of any building in Iraq.  This is actually quite typical of pumpers, making claims that can't be verified by any factual information.  But who cares about facts anyway?  After all, this is the dinar we're talking about.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Shabibi Videos

From time to time I hear people cite the videos of Shabibi when he was in Washington D.C. in April of 2011 as reasons for believing in the RV.  I've watched these videos several times and I have to wonder if these people are watching the same videos, because everything in them tells me that the big RV that the dinar crowd is waiting for just ain't gonna happen.

In the first video (above) Shabibi states that prior to 2003 Iraq had hyperinflation which led to a depreciated currency.  They also had sanctions, low oil output, high unemployment, and an underdeveloped infrastructure.  So when Saddam was removed and the coalition government and military forces began the transition to a democracy and a free market economy, there was a need for economic stability.  Without stability it's hard to define or accomplish your objectives.  That stability would be characterized by a stable exchange rate, low inflation, and an orderly payment system.  By accomplishing their objectives, the CBI had paved the way for the Iraqi government to rebuild the country by attracting foreign investment.

In the second video he states that Iraq is rich in oil, but not in development, so they need to bring investors into the country to develop it.  He then states that the growing foreign currency reserves are being used to provide stability which is good for the government and for investors.  Pressure from within Iraq to use the reserves for certain projects and pressure from outside of Iraq (exogenous factors) to devalue their currency have been resisted in order to maintain economic stability.  He feels that this stability will continue which will provide the right environment for foreign investment for the foreseeable future.  At the end of the video he was asked about a potential revaluation of the dinar.


He answered that question in the third video by saying essentially that they might raise the value if inflation becomes an issue again.  Half a year later that happened when coalition forces left Iraq and turned in their dinar for their respective nations' currencies, causing a spike in inflation due to the forces of supply and demand.  The CBI's response in January of 2012 was to adjust the exchange rate from 1170:1 to 1166:1, raising the value 1/3 of 1%.  Contrary to the mythical RVs of the dinar gurus, this is how revaluations usually work.  Shabibi also mentioned that factors like imports/exports and balance of payments could determine the need for revaluation. Apparently they haven't been a problem since he said that.

What many gurus have never told dinar investors is that the value of the dinar increased from Nov. 1, 2006 to Jan. 1, 2009 a total of 20% because of a policy change at the CBI.  They went to a crawling peg for 26 months in order to bring the inflation rate down to a tolerable level.  That 20% increase had nothing to do with increased oil production, GDP, growing currency reserves, or how popular the dinar was.  It was a monetary policy change to bring down inflation and nothing more, and it worked.  Once inflation settled below 10% they went to a policy of exchange rate stability which they have been on for nearly five years now.

Two years ago I did a post called Dinar Fact Sheet where I showed a document purportedly from the U.S. Treasury stating: "From 2006 to 2008, the CBI allowed the currency to appreciate by about 20 percent, primarily as a way to combat inflation".  This was confirmed in an IMF document I've referenced several times which stated:  "The central bank followed a policy of exchange rate stability which has translated in a de facto peg of the exchange rate since early 2004. However, from November 2006 until end 2008, the CBI allowed the exchange rate to gradually appreciate. As a result, the exchange rate arrangement of Iraq was reclassified to the category of crawling peg effective November 1, 2006. Since the start of 2009, the CBI returned to its earlier policy of maintaining a stable dinar."

Since the main factor in raising the value 20% during that time was high inflation there's really no reason to conclude that the IQD will increase in value any time soon unless inflation becomes a concern again by climbing back up to 10% or more.  Currently inflation in Iraq is quite low as the chart above indicates.  

Later in the video Shabibi was asked to comment on the news articles about "cutting the zeros".  He referred to it as "redenomination".  He responded that there was a lot of criticism of the proposal .... "all kind of talk".  He said that some critics of cutting the zeros feel that it will lead to depreciation of the currency.  That's odd, huh?  Why would critics think that raising the value 100,000% would cause depreciation of the currency?  Well the fact is the critics know that the proposal isn't a revaluation but a redenomination as Shabibi clearly stated, and history shows us that sometimes currencies depreciate soon after a redenomination.  (The Turkish Lira, for example, depreciated for three years following the 2005 redenomination.)  Thus the crtics' concern.  He went on to say that it was just being done to "facilitate payment", meaning that it makes cash transactions easier.  (The same fact sheet I mentioned above stated that "Under the proposed redenomination, the Iraqi government would issue a new dinar note that will be equivalent to 1000 current dinars. The exchange rate would be 1.17 new dinars to the dollar, equivalent to 1,170 current dinars to the dollar", which would certainly qualify as "facilitated" or "easier" since one dinar would then be able to purchase what 1,000 dinar purchased prior to redenomination.)  He also mentioned "ease of counting" but said nothing about an increase in purchasing power being caused by the proposal. 

Shabibi then gives us a brief history lesson, saying that the zeros were added because of inflation back in the 80s.  That's when the money supply went from billions to trillions in Iraq.  He says that conditions are different now and they have decided to go ahead with this plan to "bring back the Iraqi dinar" by removing the three zeros that were added because of past hyperinflation.  So according to Shabibi, "bringing back the Iraqi dinar", "cutting the three zeros", and "redenomination" all mean the same thing.  He then adds that before that can happen they need to educate the people and they need the violence in the country to subside so that the security forces can assist in the implementation of the redenomination.  Some of the gurus have siezed upon the word "propaganda" as if Shabibi inadvertently let it slip that they're trying to hide the fact that they're going to enact the largest revaluation in history.  The fact is, the word "propaganda" originally had a neutral connotation.  From Wikipedia:

"While the term propaganda has acquired a strongly negative connotation by association with its most manipulative and jingoistic examples (e.g. Nazi propaganda used to justify the Holocaust), propaganda in its original sense was neutral, and could refer to uses that were generally benign or innocuous, such as public health recommendations, signs encouraging citizens to participate in a census or election, or messages encouraging persons to report crimes to law enforcement, among others."

Or an upcoming currency change, perhaps?

So you can see here that Shabibi's use of the word "propaganda" wasn't necessarily indicative of anything covert or sinister.  Even if he hadn't changed it to "advertisement" it would have been an appropriate description of the campaign to educate the public about an approaching redenomination.  Some people will read RV into anything.

Shabibi then states that a redenomination would require help from security forces.  Some have argued against the lop, insisting that there's no reason to delay it year after year if that's what they really intended to do.  Well, actually there is.  Since the redenomination was announced a couple of years ago violence has increased in Iraq.  So have smuggling and money laundering.  Those things require the attention of security forces which would be needed during a redenomination.  To redenominate while things are so unstable in Iraq would weaken overall security to an intolerable degree.  This isn't Sam saying this.  It's Shabs.  He hopes that "security forces become less busy with the violence issue so they can devote time for us".      

In the fourth and final video, Shabibi repeats his concerns about inflation, and price/exchange rate stability.  He concludes by answering a question about the "policy rate", which I believe to be essentially the same thing as the prime rate in the US.  He says that the CBI is concerned about the banks charging high interest rates, so they have a problem with both the banks and the government. 

Everything Shabibi talked about in these videos is contrary to what the gurus have been feeding us.  Shabibi said nothing about raising the value 100,000%.  He said that revaluation depends on inflation, and the history of the IQD tells us that raising the value to combat inflation only requires small adjustments that will probably not provide any profits for dinar investors.  He said that cutting the zeros is a redenomination.  He said Iraq needs a stable exchange rate in order to plan, to budget, and to attract investment into the country. 

It seems clear to me what Shabibi was saying in these videos, and it also seems clear to me that the only justification for believing in a big RV is if everything Shabibi said here was "smoke".  Given the fact that the IQD's value is still below a tenth of a penny two and a half years later I'd say that's not bloody likely. 

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Currency is not Stock

I hear repeatedly from gurus how we know the dinar will go up in value because of all the great things happening economy-wise within Iraq.  It's a bit maddening to hear this repeated ad infinitum and ad nauseum from these posers presenting themselves as authorities on this subject, even after debunking this flawed reasoning time and time again.  It occurred to me that maybe a visual presentation would help, along with a few links.  So here it is, folks.

According to Wikipedia, the countries with the highest GDP growth in 2012 were:

1  Libya 104.5%
2  Sierra Leone 19.8%
3  Mongolia 12.3%
4  Niger 11.2%
5  Turks and Caicos Islands 11.2%
6  Turkmenistan 11.0%
7  Panama 10.7%
8  Afghanistan 10.2%
9  Macau 10.0%
10  Timor-Leste 10.0%

Now, following the logic of dinar gurus, the growth in GDP should be reflected in the value of their currencies.  Let's start with Libya.  After the revolution of 2011 that ended with the death of Gaddafi their economy was understandably in recession.  But it bounced back impressively in 2012 with an increase of over 100%.  What happened with the Libyan Dinar in 2012?  Did it double in value?  No.  Did it increase dramatically?  No.  In fact, it remained rather stable around 1.25 to the USD or $.80.  (Charts below were taken from www.xe.com.)

Next is Sierra Leone.  With an impressive GDP growth rate of 19.8% the gurus would have us believe that their currency the Sierra Leonean Leone saw a dramatic increase.  Not at all.  It remained fairly stable at around 4.35 to the USD or $.23.

Next is Mongolia.  12.3% is pretty good, right?  Let's look at their currency the Mongolian Tughrik.

As you can see it fluctuated between 1.3 and 1.4 to the USD (72 to 77 cents) and has actually depreciated so far this year.  Next is Niger.  Although it fluctuated a bit, it started and ended the year around 506 Francs to the USD or $.002.

The Turks and Caicos Islands use the US dollar so obviously there's no increase vs. the USD there.  Turkmenistan's 11% GDP growth rate produced absolutely no increase in their currency the Manat.

The same was true for Panama's Balboa which is pegged to the USD.

Afghanistan's 10% growth rate apparently didn't impress the currency gods as the Afghani actually depreciated.

Macau's Pataca managed to squeak out a negligible increase from 8:1 ($.125) to 7.98:1 ($.12525).

And finally, Timor-Leste (East Timor) also uses the US dollar so there's no increase there either.

So as these charts clearly demonstrate there's absolutely no basis for concluding that a growing economy translates into a more valuable currency.  Just for giggles I should throw Vietnam into the mix as well, since their economy has grown impressively in recent years while their currency the VND consistently loses value. 

All these dipsticks who have been pumping the dong for the last four years have been 100% wrong, and anybody who bought dong on their intel has lost money.  Currency isn't stock.  It doesn't go up in value simply because the economy is growing.  That's just ignorant armchair economics coming from hacks, quacks, and douchebags.  Iraq's GDP could double next year as Libya's did and it wouldn't mean diddly as far as the value of the IQD.  Case closed.