Thursday, August 30, 2012

MOP Report

Have you ever heard anybody make reference to the Ministry of Planning's Feasibility Studies report saying that the dinar's value should be $1.13?  I've heard of it many times but I never read it until recently.  (Breitling was talking about it the other day and I responded to his comments in my blog "The Breitling Watch".)  As I suspected this report has been misrepresented.  (Surprise Surprise!!!)  Let's take a look at what it says.

The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies
Below are the central controls related to the exchange rate of the foreign currency to convert the project inputs and outputs from foreign currency to its equivalent in the local currency, and that is by calculating the net discounted present value standard and the internal return on investments in economic analysis that governs investment projects that costs excess one million dinars.
Estimate the shadow price of foreign currency:
1. It is necessary to put central controls to amend the official exchange rate * to reflect the shadow price of the foreign currency, and that is considered one of the necessary requirements to implement the net discounted present value standard and the internal return rate on investment in the economic calculation stated in the instructions, paragraph nine.

The central controls for adjusting market prices distinguished a group of outputs and inputs traded internationally, where the projects production or usage of them is reflected on the abundance of foreign currency in the economy and thus project outputs or inputs used of such are considered purely foreign currency outputs or inputs.

* What is meant by exchange rate: the number of units of foreign currency, expressed in dollar per one dinar.
In particular the following outputs and inputs of foreign currency were distinguished:

· Export-outputs.
· Outputs marketed locally that substitute imports.
· Imported inputs.
· Inputs produced locally that usually go to exports.
· Foreign labor.

According to the pricing rules the value of the output and input (traded) is calculated using export prices (FOB) and import prices (CIF), according to what is listed in the pricing rules.

In other words the pricing rules calculate what the project produces from foreign currency (quantity of exports multiplied by the export price (FOB) in foreign currency or the quantity of
substitute imports multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency, as well as what the project uses from foreign currency and imported inputs multiplied by the import price (CIF) in foreign currency .... etc.).
In a later step, project outputs and inputs must be converted from the foreign currency to its equivalent in local currency (dinars) by using a specific exchange rate for the foreign currency.

2. Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment planning. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports... etc.
The justifications to call for the use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official exchange rate are:
· The use of an exchange rate that is lower than the official rate is the appropriate action at the investment planning level to translate the country’s economic strategy aiming at stimulating central investments in the sectors that encourage the development of non-oil exports, as well as sectors that encourage the expansion of domestic production base in order to reduce imports and compensate it with local commodities. This helps to reduce reliance on foreign exchange earnings from crude oil exports and increases the share of non-oil sectors in the local production.
· The application of the amended exchange rate on project imported inputs will assist in directing investments away from aggregated sectors dependent on imported inputs and the preference of those sectors that rely on locally produced inputs.
· The use of the amended exchange rate helps to correct the balance in favor of the traded goods sectors compared to non-traded goods.
· The real exchange rate has declined rapidly since the early seventies, through rapid rise of the level of prices and local costs which led by the steadiness of the official exchange rate to change in prices and actual local rate costs that gave an advantage for imported goods at the expense of locally produced goods, meaning that it led to deterioration of the competitiveness of alternative replacement goods and export commodities.
· This action shows that the official exchange rate overestimates the value of the dinar, compared to the foreign currency and from the promoting goods substituting imports and export commodities point of view of.
And in support to this view is the state’s utilization and in a broad approach to the customs and quantitative protection policies especially for consumer goods, as well as export subsidies that exports have through an amended export exchange rate.
3. Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities.

As you read the report you'll see that it's making a case for reducing the value of the dinar from the "official exchange rate" of $3.20 to $1.13.  (They use the words "amend" and "adjustment".)  Now, what's the official value of the dinar today?  It's $.00086.  So how could they adjust it from $3.20 to $1.13 when it's currently $.00086?  The dinar hasn't been valued at over $3 in twenty years.  There's no mention of the new constitution, the new economic climate in Iraq, or anything from the post-Saddam era.  It's either a very old report or a report based on very old numbers.  The idea here isn't to increase the value from $.00086 to $1.13.  It's to set the value at $1.13 instead of $3.20.

Iraq didn't have a .iq domain extension until 2005 so the page has been uploaded since then.  This report could be left over from the Saddam era when the dinar was officially valued at $3.20 but I don't see why the CBI would include a study from the Saddam era before the IQD was created.  I think it's more likely that the Finance Ministry and the CBI were putting together a currency reform plan based on the idea of returning to the previous value.  It's my belief that this report was written around 2006, about the time the CBI started getting inflation under control and started talking about redenominating. 

"Iraqi officials have had a long-running plan to redenominate the Iraqi dinar. In 2006, the Finance Ministry recommended to the Central Bank that it carry out such a plan."

At the time they already had tens of trillions of dinars in circulation so you have to assume that they were factoring a reduction in the money supply into the equation, which is what a redenomination would do.  By deleting the zeros (lopping) they could reduce the money supply and then return to their former official valuation of $3.20.  But this report seems to be saying that they would be better served by keeping the valuation lower to remain competitive with exports. 

Another interpretation is that they were referring to the exchange rate rather than the valuation, thus the 3.208 and 1.134 references.  This interpretation suggests that they're indicating 3,208 dinar to the dollar and 1,134 dinar to the dollar.  The CBI website says that the dinar's value in 1995 was about 3000 to the dollar, which isn't too far from the 3,208 figure.  This interpretation suggests a target rate of 1,134 which is not too far away with the current rate at 1,166 to the dollar.  The problem I see with this interpretation is that it clearly states at the end "1.134 dollar to the dinar" and even says that the official exchange rate overestimates the value of the dinar. 

I think it's also interesting to note that it says:

"The real exchange rate has declined rapidly since the early seventies"

Kinda shoots down the theory from some that the dinar was suddenly devalued by the coalition as a war strategy in 2003.

Whichever interpretation you prefer, it's clear that they're not saying Iraq can support a straight up revaluation to $1.13 without a reduction in the money supply.  It's quite possible the official exchange rate from the Saddam era was never adjusted prior to this report and they're just basing their numbers on that.  Again, actually taking the time to read this stuff instead of just listening to the gurus could pay huge dividends.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Booted from the Dinar Forum

What many dinarians have discovered over the years is that many forum owners have an agenda, and they use their power as forum owner to control what is said in their forums so as to further their agenda.  For example, if a member finds information that indicates that Iraq might not ever revalue their currency enough for investors to make any profit they are often branded a negative nelly and banned.  If the idea is to discuss the investment then all pertinent info should be allowed, pro and con.  If the con info isn't permitted you have to question the motives of the site owner. 

I found this blog the other day while searching for something.  Never noticed it before but I think it's interesting.  Notice the dates.  This has been going on for years.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Randy's Record

I listened to a conference call on Tuesday that featured Randy Koonce from Currency Chatter.  In this call Randy said two things that stood out to me as blatantly untrue.  First, when a caller asked him if deleting the zeros means removing the notes with three zeros from circulation why don't they just say it that way?  Randy's response was that they are saying it that way in Arabic, but the translation into English distorts the meaning.  Well when Shabibi was in Washington D.C. last year he talked about deleting the zeros in English, and he didn't say squat about removing larger bills from circulation.  He said it was being done to "facilitate payments".  No translation issues there.  Shabibi was describing a redenomination.  And second, Randy said that Allawi won the election but Obama put Maliki back in office.  Actually nobody won the election.  Allawi may have won more votes but he didn't get enough to win the election according to their system.  It's just as wrong to say that Maliki stole Iraq's election because Allawi got more votes as it is to say that Bush stole the 2000 election because Gore got more votes. 

When I started this blog I listed Randy as one of the good guys, despite the fact that he said many things that I disagreed with.  His rate of $3.41 was based on the requirements of Iraq's budget which to me is nonsense.  Currencies aren't valued based on budgetary requirements.  They're based mainly on the size of the economy and the money supply.  Still, I couldn't see that Randy was selling anything or making any money off of his analysis so I considered him harmless.

Well over the past year Randy has been slipping further and further into pumper territory.  He has an ad from Dinar Corp on his website.  He has flown to Chicago to do an interview with Ivy from Dinar Corp.  He has been doing conference calls promoting Dinar Corp and Freedoms Radio.  This disturbing tendency caused me to take another look at RK.  Here's what he has said over the past year or so.

5-16-2011  (via spice4life74) I just spoke with Randy Koonce and he informed me that Parliament is in Special Session now to vote on the remaining ministers. Once that is accomplished we will have our RV

5-19-2011  I understand that everything is done, ministers picked, agreements signed, all we need is a vote, supposedly meeting today for the vote & RV will be shortly afterwards.

5-23-2011  …I feel the ministers were voted on last week… we only lack the announcement which I feel they will do this week…

5-29-2011  At this time we are day to day for the RV to take place…rate HAS to be at least…$3.41

Randy Koonce
6-12-2011 It looks so good for tomorrow I can’t stand it…I’ve told you to watch 2 things…The money (budget) and Ministers…news says ministers approved Ministers of Electricity budget request–means they are ready to open budget and political blocks have agreed on security ministers and will resolve (vote) tomorrow (Sunday)…If they do what they say they are going to do, tomorrow (Sunday) this is over…If they don’t announce ministers it may be delayed a few days…my rate based on the budget numbers is $3.21

7-9-2011  …I believe the pressure is about to break, we are in a pissing contest with maliki and the rest of parliament….I am having trouble with this going 2 weeks

7-9-2011 the Erbil Agreement is agreed on and they can vote on it Tuesday. Then if they vote on it Tuesday and it is passed then Shabibi should pull the trigger…it will be (rate) about $3.40, maybe a little more, to cover the budget

7-20-2011  Looks good for Thursday or any day after that, the Prime Minister has to be in town. Maliki was upset that the U.S. held them up last weekend. The lower denoms are in the banks, not in the streets. Rate won’t be $.86 or $4.40, it will be enough to cover their budget, $3.41, it’s simple economics

8-2-2011  The Erbil agreement has been voted on, we are waiting for the announcement that they will implement it, today, no later than tomorrow, if they do, we are on, we should have an R/V. The rate will come in to make the budget work – $3.41, the people that say $.86 can’t add.

9-18-2011 [via VNJW] The Kurds are saying to M to impliment the Arbil (Erbil) Agreement & giving him til Tuesday or ask for the no confidence. If M does not, then they will try to get M out of office. This puts M in a corner! If he does impliment the Arbil, we have an RV. if not, we will probably be waiting until they oust him & put someone into position to do just that. We need to see the Ministers in place, the HCL, the Arbil implimented and we have an RV. [I] feel Maliki will co-operate rather than loose out….which means the RV would happen by Tuesday. [I] feel the rate will be $3.41 or a few cent more to meet the budget…..but no more and it will stay that way a long time.

10-2-2011  The only part of Erbil that we are concerned with is that they have a government. It will be in the news, no it has not happened yet. Maliki said he agrees with everything…BUT is all of this legal, constitutional???…that’s how he stalled it again. They are going to make sure it is constitutional at the meeting on Wednesday. Are we close, yes, Wednesday is the day Maliki has to put up or shut up, otherwise they will ask for a no confidence vote, if they do it will be another 3 weeks. If you hear anyone say the rate is above $4, take everything they said before that and throw it out of the window. They are not going to drop a rate out that is any more than their budget. Their entire oil revenue was 26 billion, their entire budget was 90 billion, divide the two, that gives you the rate, $3.45, not too far out from that. Don’t let the emotion of an $8 rate get you worked up, don’t be deceived. Check CBI to see if it has RV’ed, if it didn’t RV there, it didn’t RV.

11-13-2011  Shabibi is the ultimate guy that can pull the trigger, he wants a full government, Security Ministers and Stratigic Council should give us a full government. They are putting special sessions together to get this done. The U.S. got ourselves in a bind with this immunity thing, it should have been settled months ago. It’s a political process and we are observers, but we are in a very good spot. We are in a window, don’t know a date…I personally think that before Thanksgiving we are out of this. It’s not a matter of IF, it’s a matter of WHEN. Monday – Thursday watch the news. The rate is $3.41, I know this from so many sources, always to the USD.

12-12-2011  Bottom line is you need to see the implementation of the Erbil and announcement of the ministers & then the rate will show. No one knows the date, Shabibi doesn’t even know the date. Maliki wants out of Chapter 7 – not going to happen until it RV’s. I don’t see it happening on the 15th, the closer it gets to the end of the month, the hotter it gets, yes, it could go to the 1st of the year. I don’t see anything that says this is our week, next week looks better. A $6 or $7 rate, not right. Based on the official numbers, the rate will be $3.41.

1-1-2012  there will be no RV on Sunday or Monday or Tuesday…the earliest time would be around Wed or Thurs of Next week if it happens. there is things starting to take place that gives me hope for the end of the week…Look for the announcement of the Ministers and the completion of the strategic council…do not believe the 4 to 8 dollar rates and do not believe all the hype about the UN or IMF or anybody forcing Iraq to do anything…they are just about finished putting Maliki in a position to show all of this…Exxon, Shell, have said if Iraq does not start paying then they were going to shut there operations down… this was such a great sign because it puts Maliki in a position that he cannot afford…this is coming to a close.

1-9-2012  Iraqs GOI is coming together and they are getting ready to show the ministers. ..Watch for Ministers to show… I believe there are better times than others to show this thing…so my way of thinking is at the end of Business Day In Iraq on Thursday or the Start of Business in Iraq on Sunday….because it makes the most sense… Monday Tues is out of the question this week so I look to the latter part of the week and the Sunday morning for us…My Rate has always been 3.41, because it makes the budget work…I will say that this month is shaping up very good and the next 2 weeks do hold lots of promise…this is on the last legs of the journey.

2-9-2012  Exxon is shutting down if Iraq doesn’t pay them. The biggest thing about the Arab Summit is to show these guys they’re big enough…they’re arrogant enough. Exxon would have to pack up to show them but they think they need them. I don’t think they’ll have an Arab Summit if they don’t get this going. Next week ought to be a very hot week for us…this conference has got to start…it’s all a matter of timing as to how fast they get out.

2-27-2012  I am looking for this thing soon but it will happen after the conference, do I know when the conference will happen i do not yet but I believe this next week should enlighten us on that…So this next week look for a date or a no confidence on Maliki…the big event the Arab Summit must have RV to pay for the Summit. I do not believe at this time they will move the summit even tho Maliki’s group has asked to have the national conference delayed until after the summit…that cannot happen.

3-11-2012  This Arab Summit will not take place until the RV. I do think the Arab summit has them pinned…they have to have the money and Kuwait said you [Maliki] can’t come on the 14th until you have the money…I think we’re in a spot where it’s about to break, but I just don’t know which way…either he finds a way out of it or we find the RV.

3-14-2012  he [Maliki] went and signed papers to pay Kuwait…They gave him until Sunday to make good on GOI and RV… Before or Iraq gets the Summit pulled.

3-21-2012  We need to see these political things done: 1. The Ministers 2. The Stratigic Council. Then right after we should see the RV. That should fulfill everything Sahbibi wanted. It’s never looked this good. Shabibi said he will change the exchange rate to make up the budget – $3.41, $.86 doesn’t make the budget work. This is a great time, we are seeing this come together.

4-2-2012  Iraq did not have the money to do the Arab Summit so they just stayed at the airport for all the meetings. They did move some of the meetings to the green zone, all of which the United States provided the security…The two biggest countries did not really participate in the Summit. And, by everyone’s standard, other than Maliki’s own group, was the biggest bust there could be. Saudi Arabia did not go because Iraq has not lived up to the agreements that Maliki signed off on. That is…showing the Government and letting the money RV. DO NOT WORRY there is still pressure on Maliki to finish at the National Conference on April 5th. which is when they promised to show the Ministers and the Strategic Council.

4-2-2012  So, do we look for the RV? No we look for the Ministers and the GOI. Ban Ki Moon, from the UN, did not go to the Arab Summit to release Iraq from Chapter 7. He went on behalf of another country trying to expose the fact that Maliki Lied on Documents…”and by lying…all things were signed and promised to be done before the Arab Summit.” The only reason they were not done is Maliki wanted to go to the Summit with total control of Iraq. This has back fired on him and now he is facing the wrath of the Kurds which started today…they have quit sending oil. This is a very great sign So do not expect anything until the 5th. It can happen at anytime, but do not expect until the 5th. If there is no GOI, then we will have to see what is happening at that time.

4-5-2012  There’s pressure – tremendous pressure to get the government set up…it doesn’t mean it’s tomorrow, but it does mean it’s not far from the road. If they have it, you’ll see the strategic council and then the money…there’s no if’s, and’s or butt’s…you don’t have to worry about a $14 dollar or $4 rate…It drives me up against the wall with 86 cents….it only means to remove 000’s off the street…you can’t remove 000’s off a rate. Don’t worry about the rates falling from the sky on the bank screens…it’s bs…it will show on the CBI…Just check the CBI and if it hasn’t changed , it hasn’t changed. My number is $3.41.

4-26-2012  The National Meeting has to take place in the public eye. All that is left is an announcement. As soon as Maliki announces the Stratigic Council he looses 2/3 of his power; as soon as the ministers are announces it becomes law. It’s not the IMF, it’s not Chapter 7 etc., holding this up, it’s one man [Maliki]. Now Shabibi says, I’m not pulling the trigger until I get the power sharing. When we see the dates for the National Meeting…that’s our date, well then, Maliki does have to show up. The removal of the 3 zeroes has nothing to do with the rate, it is just about removing them from the streets. The rate, $3.41 based upon the budget. IMO, it can go a couple more weeks, but not much longer than that. I really believe that we are at the end of this.

5-7-2012  We are really close to seeing the National Conference. Maliki has said that he is ready to do this. All has been done in Parliament. All that needs to be done is the Stratigic Council and the Ministers, announced in the public. What we are looking at is political. Are we close, I believe so, as soon as Talabani announes the National Meeting, we are done with this thing. Chapter 7 will not be lifted until we have a Stratigic Council & Ministers. Follow the news and look for these certain things. Do we feel that this is coming to an end – yes. Maliki can force them to call a no confidence. Do I think he will – no. I feel very good about where we are at. Each day that goes by for the next 2 weeks is a good day. We were kind of hoping to see the National Conference today, but it didn’t show. Rate – $3.41, it’s all about the budget.

I don't enjoy posting this because Randy comes across as a nice guy, but facts are facts.  Randy has a track record over the past year about as good as BGG and Frank.  I hope my fears aren't confrimed but at this point he seems to be going the direction of so many of these guys - down pumper alley.

For further consideration you can listen to some old conference calls featuring RK. 

(8/29/12 .... UPDATE!!!  Audios are working now. :-)

Aug. 23, 2010

Oct. 12, 2010

Dec. 19, 2010

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Frankly Reeking III

Just a little more evidence (in case you actually need more) that Frankie is a liar and knows NADA!!!

3/4/2010 - Good evening Family,


Tell me CBI why is it that on the 11th of February ’10 ……..almost a month ago …… showed plans to take 100 billion IQD’s and convert them into 265 billion USD’s. That simple math told us a rate of 2.65. The 2010 budget report showed a study using 2.65. You guys are pretty smart. Whether you have been plotting or planning this all along can be a mystery. But I must admit you are not as dumb ……….as you pretend to be. It’s difficult for us investors to know the path you are taking GOI……in the maze. It’s hard to follow you …….heck it’s hard to make sense of anything you say. Now you are dealing with the first day of elections and even your people are confused because there are hundreds of you running for office. If your purpose was to confuse the masses and us……..not bad. But I am going to tell my Family what I believe may happen based on your recent political and banking comments. If you feel like it GOI ……..please enjoy.

M is wanting to re-instate the value of the dinar before the election as per the Parliaments vote on the Budget for 2010. The budget requested and awarded by the Parliament…….. was based on a "safe budget" number of 3.26. This we know from printed info received in Press Releases from the Planning Ministry of Iraq last October requesting budget request from each of the Ministries. This request asked them to use the 3.26 number and they would be safe as the actual value would be "much" greater. There also was a budget safety factor of 20% built in. 1.20 x 3.26 = 3.91. Rounded off for CBI charges……….. comes out at 3.86 which should be the Forex number. M needs the re-value to help him in his re-election bid on which the voting started today……….and the final vote on Saturday the 7th of March. His competitor is a close friend of Shabibi and since M is forbidden during the election to use a revalue for political purposed the CBI is denying that there is going to be a 1 to 1 revalue of the dinar. This is smoke and mirrors………. that is true in that there will be no revalue at 1 to 1. The revalue will be above 3.26……….. probably around the 3.86 number or higher. There is speculation that there was a "silent RV" in Iraq on Sunday……….. so they could meet their commitments to the Smart Card deposits, government salaries and pensioners on last Monday which was met. This was confirmed by the IMF in their March 2nd press release on the economy in Iraq……….. stating they had fulfilled the IMF request to bring these stated objectives of cutting salaries and maintaining the CBI quest for maintaining low inflation while improving the economy. IMO……….. we should see an RI on or before the 11th of March. Our sources say they are ready to release the US Banks on that date if Iraq decides to implement the re-instatement of the value of the dinar this week.

3/16/2010 -  Family how long have I been telling you that there is an increase in cargo ships out of Basra? Do you remember last Friday I told you that merchants and citizens are on a spending spree? It reminds me of a person…….. that is aware that he is going to receive an income tax return ……..goes out and spends the money before he gets it.

CH7 has stipulations that do not allow this form of cargo traffic into the ports. They’re sanctioned for crying out loud! They are restricted from bringing in so many of the things they are……… bringing in.

This is a new attitude and our team has been telling you about this for some time now. I wish to report that this is more predominate within the parameters of Baghdad. This is where city jobs can be found that require an education that usually allows one to make a higher income of living. This class also inherits local knowledge much faster than the surrounding areas of Baghdad.

The further out you go from the core of the city the less jobs there are …….the less educated people there are and the less knowledge there is. Somehow or another the people in Iraq that can afford it seem to be aware of the onslaught of goods flooding their area. Where there was nothing once………there is plenty now. In their opinion ….best to grab it all up NOW before it’s all gone. Our team says that the IQD is being hoarded and the USD is still being used to buy these products.

3/18/2010 - Around 9pm I received a call telling me that a prominent businessman (who I am familiar with) called my source to say that a Chinese friend of his had just called him from China and read out loud to him an article in their morning newspaper. It claimed that Iraq had revalued its currency at 2.65. I then put a shout out on our forum 30 mins later for anyone who lives in China or Australia to pm me. (for those of you that pm’d me and did not receive a response from me know that I was preparing myself if I had need for a Chinese translation) I wanted to see if either of these countries also had articles in their newspapers with the same subject. As the night went into the morning we learned that the lady from China who read the article out loud attempted to retrieve the article but was unsuccessful. Apparently it had been read off the internet. I requested a newspaper or a link to find it on the computer. Turns out nothing was printed and the article was no longer available. Do we believe this story Family? I am caught in the middle because I know these sources up to ……….the Chinese lady. These sources are heavily invested whales. They would not lie to me. Did the Chinese lady lie? IMO…….what does she have to gain? She too is a businesswoman with interests in her investment. She has no interest in creating false rumors. So if this Chinese story is true ………why is the article gone so quickly? Well…… certainly wouldn’t be the first time this has happened. And finally…….our team was told early this year that a stipulation was agreed upon with China that they would cash out first in the banking systems when it RI’d. They do not trust The Plan nor the USD. In fact they dumped a truckload of US T bills to Japan just recently. Is there a link for this stipulation………of course not. I give it to you as intel. Yet ……there is logic in this procedure. The sun will rise in China to start the day as the rest of the world ……catches up. It is easy to allow China to cash out first.

3/25/2010 - Did you see the auction from yesterday and today? These are large numbers. I don’t know what they mean but it would please me to know that they were for the movement of lower denoms. Has anyone seen the 2010 budget rate yet? Has anyone seen the 2010 budget for that matter? Does anyone in Iraq even talk about the 2010 budget? Why does one ignore a subject? It seems pretty obvious to me they don’t want to tell us the rate they will use in the budget. BUT WHY NOT? What’s so bad about telling us that you are going to use 1170………again?! Unless? The GCC wants to create a single currency basket by March 30th . They have invited Iraq in the past to be a part of it. Silly rabbits …..they can’t do that with used toilet paper…….unless. A lot of funds are being recovered in Iraq… fact they are trying to find a way to recover the 12 million dollars lost daily from burning off excess natural gas from oil fields. Why bother…….unless?

5/10/10 - The Euro dollar was somewhat successful in uniting and strengthening the European economies. So the Americas decided to watch the Euro dollar for about three years and reproduce the model. So about three years ago the Americas of this planet united…….Canada…….USA………Central ……….Mexico and South America. They created a common currency called the …………Amero Dollar. Whether you know it or not……….your tax dollars have been supporting this currency for about three years now. It is a separate American currency that is desperately trying to payoff the debt owed to China. You can google it and learn about it…… you should! It is blue and white. Understand? Let’s continue.
So with so much idol time on everyone’s hands while we wait for the IQD to RI……….China sends word to the US. This is not a request………..they are telling the US to once again to go back to the days of Fort Knox and support the American dollar ……….with gold. Oh boy……….if it isn’t one thing……it’s another. Family there is not enough gold on this planet to back up our national debt…………AND CHINA KNOWS THIS! So China says ……..why don’t you make up the rest of it by giving us some worthwhile currencies? They say……….we know you have boocoo bucks of dinars in your FR. Want to give us some? NO!!! You have your own……..and we worked to hard for ours. They say……..fine but we still demand that you support your USD with gold. Reluctantly ……….the USA has no choice but to work things out with their creditors. The Plan ……..must not fail and will not

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Dinar Corp Video

I found this video the other day on YouTube.   I think there's a lot to learn from it.

My first observation is that there is nobody from Dinar Corp in this video.  Does that seem odd?  Well if you've watched the other Dinar Corp videos you know that their owner "Sam" never appears on camera.  In a couple of videos he had his spokesman Ivy Johnson appear, and Ivy has spoken on a few conference calls, but we never see or hear from "Sam".   According to the review of Dinar Corp at Iraqi Dinar Money "Sam" is Samir Al-Tayeh who was the subject of a lawsuit by the attorney general of Illinois.  According to Ivy the owner's name is actually Hussam, not Samir.  Well whoever he is he's apparently very shy.

My second observation is the background.  Notice anything unusual?  Empty bookshelves.  Don't people usually put books in bookshelves?  Or at least knickknacks?  There's nothing!  Not a good sign if you're looking for a dinar dealer who plans on being around for awhile, huh?  Okay, maybe this isn't their headquarters.  Maybe this is a studio location or something, but even studios have props.  Man, I don't know about you but I'd like some visual indication that my dinar dealer plans on being around for awhile in the event of a lop so that I can exchange my dinar for the new dinar or USD.

Next is this "Fresh" guy.  For those of you who aren't familiar with him he's the host of People Invested.  He used to be one of the intel guys at People's Dinar until he started his own site about a year ago.  Here's one of his biggest hits.

Fresh (Fresh Chat at PI @ 3:40pm EST Tuesday): PI 10/4/11 October 4th, 2011 02:59 pm  
[Elilail] Fresh talk to us man
[Sushi] Fresh wb!
[sisterbreen] Fresh Fresh Fresh
[starjump123] woo woo woo
[beachdreaming777] momof5 Fresh has some great great great news
[Elilail] Fresh yea?
[Lady Sarah] beachdreaming777 Fresh Fresh Fresh
[para~investigator] starjump123 Really!
[Sushi] Fresh k, and?
[starjump123] ummmm WHOA
[momof5] beachdreaming777
[Elilail] Fresh wha wha wha?
[Elilail] right…
[Elilail] I would say the same thing….
[Sushi] k
[para~investigator] starjump123 04/10/2011 21:51:00 Baghdad (NINA) – President Jalal Talabani will hold a press conference later in the evening, after leaders of political blocs have concluded their meeting. Source at the President’s Office told NINA, “Talabani will announce the meeting’s results and the reasons for postpone making decisions concerning important political issues.
[Elilail] oh yea?
[Elilail] how soon….
[templejc] Tell us
[AMAC0910] para~investigator That could be interesting!!!!
[Lady Sarah] Fresh ummm the question of the hour
[para~investigator] Fresh Inquiring minds want to know!!!
[AZGhostHunter] “soon”
[templejc] We can handle it
[belabun] raising my blood pressure in anxiety waiting for Fresh to spill the beans
[DINARHOPES] Fresh how soon please
[dlcarr] Days, weeks, hours, months?????
[JamVox] so whats the specific window?
[para~investigator] AMAC0910 Yes, very interesting
[Tank2323] Fresh any word on M in or out
[sisterbreen] Fresh Fresh Fresh wow wow wow
[Elilail] oh yea?
[belabun] omg omg omg
[momof5] Fresh nooowayyyyy
[dsatmhk] Yay!
[templejc] Wowwwwwwwwwwssssss
[DINARHOPES] Fresh thats fantastic
[Tank2323] Fresh shut up!!!!!
[para~investigator] Fresh Sounds good to me man!!!
[Lady Sarah] Fresh i am in htat window every day, thank you for shareing that i am not alone [poco loco] its been very soon i want it now
[dlcarr] Fresh From your lips to God’s ears!
[Sushi] Fresh that would be wonderful!!!!
[Elilail] that’s flippin awesome
[belabun] Won’t send a hit man out if it is not true, I promise
[templejc] Woooooooooll hooollllllllll
[AMAC0910] Fresh That sounds awesome!!!!
[beachdreaming777] Fresh hey bud.. can you PM me?
[fxmanaz] whats up dinar land peeps
[starjump123] wooooooooo
[dsatmhk] Wish I could see everyone smiling!
[Elilail] Fresh did this person give a reason why?
[templejc] U can call me in about an hour.
[AuntieTeeTee] I miss Fresh what u say?
[para~investigator] fxmanaz Hi Randyman
[belabun] Someone capture this for reposting please
[Lady Sarah] Fresh probably all with the same questions
[beachdreaming777] Fresh can you PM really quick?
[dsatmhk] Scrolled too fast!
[sisterbreen] Fresh Fresh Fresh ty ty ty
[Elilail] Fresh lovely… well we look forward to hearing from you
[thebuzz] Fresh [Sushi] para~investigator hello and thank you very much
[starjump123] YAY for Fresh
[DINARHOPES] Fresh thanks bunches now i feel better
[AMAC0910] Fresh Thx Fresh… We needed that this afternoon.
[dsatmhk] Thank you Fresh!!!
[starjump123] oooOOooo thanks
[AuntieTeeTee] what Fresh say?
[Elilail] okay… so Fresh says someone told him the RV may happen today
[Elilail] let’s make on a bet on how long it is before Okie steals the intel
[Sushi] Fresh Fresh thank you
[anthonlcs] Fresh How good is the source
[AuntieTeeTee] Elilail 5 min
[AZGhostHunter] AuntieTeeTee he said go to the beach today, cuz you could be busy tomorrow
[dsatmhk] Where should we watch? Forex best?
[AuntieTeeTee] AZ I at beach already!
[templejc] Cool
[anthonlcs] Fresh awesome thanks
[starjump123] Fresh fresh he’s our man           

That's right!  He was calling the RV back in October like a total douche.  Remember what I said about dinar dealers, dinar gurus, and dinar site owners all working together in "Connecting the Dots"?  Well this guy also owns a site, also does the intel thing, and also runs a Dinar Corp ad.  Coincidence?  You tell me.

Next observation is this guy Lee.  He says he lost $15,000 in reserves buying from another dinar dealer.  HOLY CRAP!!!  Dude!  OMG!!!  Wake up!  Unfortunately Lee's story is all too common.  Many people got pumped into believing that the RV was about to happen and bought on reserves only to lose their deposit when they couldn't pay off the balance.  What's puzzling to me is that some of these people are still buying on reserve only now they're doing "guaranteed", "secured", or "safe" reserve purchases.  Haven't they learned anything more than that?  There's nothing safe about investing in the dinar.  There's only risky and riskier.

My final observation is Beverly at the end.  IMO "Sam" should fire Ivy and hire her.  I'd buy ameros from that babe.  Okay, that's not really relevant but hey, I'm a guy.
8/23/12  UPDATE!!!  Somebody did a remix of this video.  Check it out.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Douchie for Aug. 12-18

Before I get to the Douchie I would like to mention that this week marks the first anniversary of The Douchies.  The first recipient was bear5642 for his bank story.  Since then bear has announced his guru retirement I'm happy to say.  But not to worry, there have been plenty to come along and take his place. 

I've enjoyed doing these weekly reminders of how none of these guys know anything, and that the dinar will never go up in value like they say it will.  It might go up a few % here and there but it's not going to $.86 or more.  If they don't lop it's possible to make money by owning dinar, but it's also quite possible to lose everything you invest in it, so you have to weigh those considerations. 

As this week marks the first anniversary this will be my last weekly Douchie post.  I might pop in from time to time to post one when somebody does something really outrageous, but after a year of this I can't imagine anything more outrageous than we've already seen.  I suppose the worst were Okie telling some guy to quit his job, and his subsequent comparison of himself to Jesus.  Then there was the plea from the "Friends of Brad Huebner" to send Brad some dinars because the IRS took his.  Then there was the time Footforward said that it had been revealed to him that trillions of dollars would pass through his hands in his lifetime, and that it will take quadrillions of dollars to fix the world's economy.  Kinda hard to surpass all of that for outrageous, huh?  Thanks for reading.  I hope you enjoyed them.

This week I'm going to grant a special award to BGG from Dinar Updates.  In a conference call on Friday BGG said:
  • You gotta be careful who you listen to because some of these guys are in bed with crooked dinar dealers
  • If it sounds too good to be true it probably is
  • He and Poppy have a good friend who is a billionaire
  • He and Poppy did a drive that raised $375,000 in pledges for cancer victims
I have to say this guy has stones.  For a blatant pumper to say what he said here is simply dumbfounding.  Congrats to BGG for winning the first ever (and probably the last) DDB Chutzpah Award.;0MTAwNTkwMDY=1

And now This Week's Douchie!

(STOP THE PRESSES!!!  I was just about to post the Douchie when I read this from Eagle 1.  WOW!  At the last second he came from out of nowhere to become this week's co-Douchie.)

On Friday Eagle 1 from Frank Villa's "family" posted:

First let me provide you with some numbers and statistics so you know where I’m coming from.
According to the CIA’s statistical reports at the end of 2011 (and they provide these reports for all countries or nations of interest), the CBI held some 80 metric tons of gold in its vaults at that time. (We know, by the way, that this number has increased significantly since then; and the CIA is reporting that central banks worldwide have been purchasing massive amounts of gold for their treasuries. The Federal Reserve purchased some 400 metric tons of gold during the past quarter, just as an example.)
So that you understand the significance of these amounts, let me break it down for you.
There are 14.57 ounces of gold in a troy pound.
There are 2200 pounds in a metric ton.
That equals 32,054 ounces in a metric ton.
Multiply that by a rounded off $1600/oz. and you have a dollar value of $51,286,400 per metric ton of gold.
Now let’s pick an arbitrary number and say that the CBI is going to sell of a quarter of the gold reserves they had at the end of 2011. That works out to $1,025,728,000 (a trillion, 25 ¾ billion dollars) in cash returns to the CBI for the sale of that gold. A trillion plus dollars to add to their coffers.

Okay, for an international banker this guy really sucks at math.  $1,025,728,000 is a BILLION, 25 ¾ MILLION dollars.  So he was only off by $1,024,702,272,000. (One trillion, 24 billion, 702 million dollars.)

Why would they do this?  Let’s look at the amount of Dinar that the Central Bank has outstanding worldwide. According to the latest figures provided by Dr. Shabibi, there are between 35 – 37 trillion Dinar in circulation outside of Iraq. The U.S. Treasury holds a lion’s share of that amount, and there are many other countries that have purchased significant amounts of Dinar. China has been scarfing up Dinar (and silver) like there is no tomorrow. Italy and Greece each hold something on the order of 500 Billion Dinar.

Not so sure that Shabibi said that, but even if he did there's no evidence that the US Treasury, China, Italy, or Greece hold one stinkin' Iraqi dinar.  PROVE ME WRONG, PLEASE!!!

According to the Year-End Report issued by Ernst & Young (December 31, 2011, and signed off as accepted by Dr. Shabibi on February 2, 2012), Iraq’s Central Bank held a total of $76T+ in monetary assets (cash on hand, foreign currencies, gold, treasury notes, silver, diamonds and other tradeable securities). I just about did a double-take when I saw that figure. $76 Trillion in monetary assets is not pocket change, folks! Iraq is one VERY RICH country!! None of these figures take into account receivables in oil revenue, oil reserves, proven gold and diamond reserves or other commodities.

$76 Trillion in monetary assets?  Really?  Seems to me with that kind of wealth they could afford to keep the lights on.  Seriously, guy.  Give us a link to back up this claim.  I read that they have 143 billion barrels of recoverable oil in their reserves.  Figuring a generous $100 a barrel that would come to about $14.3 trillion.  So you're saying that they've got over $60 trillion in other assets?

You’ll all appreciate that the U.S. military, when fighting the war against Saddam, stationed soldiers in the streets of Baghdad. When fighting broke out in the streets, soldiers began digging fox holes and trenches in the streets of the city from which to fight. As they dug, they discovered extremely rich veins of gold running through the middle of the streets. At this point, no one really knows how much gold Iraq has in the ground, but when you remember that this area was part of the Garden of Eden, it all makes sense!

Oh dear God!!! 

Back to the question of why Iraq would sell some of its gold: having been in banking, I can tell you that when bankers are faced with unknown prospects such as those the CBI faces knowing that they could very well have more folks cash in their Dinar than their statistical model indicates, they tend to be almost overly cautious. From a banker’s perspective, it is very prudent for them to increase their U.S. Dollar reserves in preparation for a potential run when the announcement is made. Last week, the IMF announced that the CBI had 130% of its minimum needed asset requirements to begin the RV. That may sound impressive, but that’s 130 percent of 15%. We can round this off and use a general figure. What the IMF was saying was that Iraq had cash reserves amounting to roughly 20 cents on every dollar (or dinar) outstanding.

That’s a whole lot better than any U.S. bank, but let’s look at that in actual numbers. Let’s assume that investors are going to cash in 5 Trillion Dinar within a two-to-four week period of the announcement, and that the initially announced rate will be $3.86. That means that the CBI will have to cough up $19 Trillion+ USD. It takes no great rocket science to see that a sudden demand for that amount of cash could easily put a strain on things – their monetary reserves notwithstanding. Apart from the USD the CBI holds in its vaults, it has something on the order of $5 Trillion in U.S. banks and around $750 Million in Canadian banks. Selling off some of their gold is a pretty smart move, and they could easily sell off half of the reserves (or 40 metric tons) if it seemed prudent to do so.

Again, if they've got so much money why can't they keep the electricity on?  What a liar!  But what do you expect from an associate of Frankie Frankie?

This is all fascinating information, but I hear the questions: namely, what does this have to do with the timing of the announcement and the rate?
Iraq’s President Talabani has just returned (according to unverified info) or will return before the end of this week. Shabibi made it clear some weeks back that he wanted Talabani to make the actual announcement of the RV. Talabani has already indicated in advance that he will be calling a public event on Sunday, August 26th. While there are possibly other reasons for this announced event, there is a general consensus among our analysts that we will have our RV announcement on that date. There is other logic for believing that.
In the last couple of days, Dr. Shabibi has announced that the CBI will release 1 Dinar, 5 Dinar and 25 Dinar coins for public use and trade on September 1. It makes no sense whatever to issue a 1 or a 5 Dinar coin if the RV has not taken place. What good is a 5 or even a 25 Dinar coin if a loaf of bread costs 3,000 Dinars (current price of a loaf, pre-RV). If indeed the plan is to release these coins for use on September 1, then August 26 makes sense for the RV announcement. (And that doesn’t mean the announcement will wait that long. It could actually occur even sooner.)
That’s it for the moment! There is another development unfolding behind the scenes but I’ll hold off on that for the moment. While it could be related to the RV, or not related, it will certainly have worldwide economic consequences. Let’s see what happens over the next ten days or so, and if it seems appropriate I’ll send out another memo for your consideration.

Okay Eagle 1.  When September rolls around with no RV of more than 10% I want you to explain to us where your analysis went wrong.  In the meantime enjoy sharing a Douchie with Mike from the IQD Team.

The IQD Team did a call on Sunday where they insisted that pressure is mounting on the Iraqi government to increase the value of the dinar because people are paying too much for food.  78 minutes into the call a caller asks about the worst case scenario.  "Straight-talking Mike" responds that the worst that could happen is that you get back just a few more dollars than you invested.  He then says that with the increase in their foreign currency reserves (now reportedly at $67 billion) they have to add value to their currency.  Well their reserves have been growing steadily since 2009 and the dinar has gone up a whopping third of 1%, so I'd say maybe they don't have to add value to their currency.  They might just print more money like they've been doing.  Yeah, I think that's probably what they'll do.  They'll do what they've been doing.  They'll either print more money or reflect the growth in the reserves with electronic currency or bonds or something.  I look for the M2 figure to rise from 71 trillion to 75 or more within a month or two. 

About 88 minutes in a caller asks where the money is coming from to pay us for the RV.  Mike gives him the typical "Fed creates money out of thin air and uses it in fractional reserve banking" response.  He goes on to dish out more douchebaggery saying:;0Mzg1MTEzMjA=1

Mike followed up this rubbish with a conference call on Friday where he insisted on linking a story about a plan to build a showroom for big cars and trucks featuring Mercedes-Benz to the forthcoming RV.  (I kid you not, folks.  About 43 minutes in.)  The location for this project would be in the Al-Basra region near the port of Um Qasr by the Persian Gulf about an hour away from Kuwait City and near the border with southern Iran.  The story even talks about the booming agricultural and industrial economies of southern Iran as being one of the driving forces behind the plan.  So picture this.  They're going to build a showroom and maintenance facility for expensive cars and trucks near the Persian Gulf and Kuwait City and southern Iran which would be a convenient location for people to come from the entire Gulf region, and somehow Mike reads RV into this???  Can you say REACHING???

Mike then states during Q&A that the CBI website tells us that the dinar was devalued in 2002 or 2003, and that up until then the dinar was valued at $2.44. (84 min. in)  Now either Mike is lying or he can't read.  Here's what the CBI website says. 

"After the Gulf War in 1991, and due to the economic blockade, the previously used Swiss printing technology was no longer available. A new, inferior quality notes issue was produced. The previous issue became known as the Swiss dinar and continued to circulate in the Kurdish region of Iraq. Due to excessive government printing of the new notes issue, the dinar devalued quickly, and in late 1995, US$1 was valued at 3,000 dinars."

$1 divided by 3000 dinars would equal about $.000333 according to my math.  Not $2.44.

"Straight-Talking Mike" goes on to say that Saddam was a Kurd (he was a Sunni, but Mike admittedly wasn't too sure about this one) and proceeds to tell an 82 year old woman who thinks that an RV to $.86 is too good to be true that she's lucky to find out about the dinar, because "we weren't supposed to find out about this".

I couldn't help but notice all the Skype noises in the background as Mike is saying this crap.  Being the suspicious bugger that I am I have to wonder if maybe some master pumper isn't feeding him these lines?  Instead of "Straight-talking Mike" maybe he should go by "Jive-Talkin' Mike".  Congrats, DB.;0Mzg1MTEzMjA=1 

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