Saturday, December 8, 2012

Seasons Greetings!

Yes, I'm still alive.  Just devoting my time and energy to other things these days.  Despite my dinar detox program I must admit that I do still follow some of the douchebaggery in the dinar forums and conference calls, but not with the interest I once had.  But, this being the season for giving I figured I'd take a few minutes to offer my comments on some of what I've heard and observed. 

First, it seems that since Brad Huebner and Rudy Coenen were indicted for fraud that some of the pumpers have suddenly become quite shy, while others have decided to drop the notion of a big RV.  The popular theory now is that the dinar will be allowed to float.  By speculating on a float the gurus can sidestep the legal quagmire of misrepresenting the CBI's currency reform plan.  That was part of the case for fraud presented against Brad and Rudy.  Instead the gurus can now just say that Iraq won't follow through with the CBI's plan but will float the IQD until it returns to its former valuation. 

Before I continue let me review what was stated in the indictment.  Under the "General Allegations" section we find the following:

7. The term "revaluation" (casually shortened to "RV" in dinar-sales parlance), refers to the contention that at some point in the near future, the dinar will rise against the U.S. dollar, a circumstance which will enrich earlier purchasers of the dinar.  BRADFORD HUEBNER, CHARLES EMMENECKER, RUDOLPH COENEN and MICHAEL TEADT repeatedly advanced claims to potential investors over the telephone, through web pages, and through a weekly internet conference call that even relatively small investors in the dinar would, following the "revaluation" or "RV", become wealthy overnight.

8. A "redenomination" of the dinar refers to an actual proposal by the Central Bank of Iraq, announced as recently as June 21, 2011, to re-print the currency to remove three zeroes from the physical dinar banknotes as a matter of convenience.  A redenomination of the Iraqi currency would not lead to a revaluation by the same amount, and may have no effect on the currency's value.  Under a redenomination, a new currency replaces an old currency, but the value remains the same.  Under the proposed redenomination, the Iraqi government would issue a new dinar note that will be equivalent to 1000 current dinars.  The exchange rate would be 1.17 new dinars to the dollar, equivalent to 1,170 current dinars to the dollar.


http://www.realscam.com/attachments/f12/1576d1348185792-bayshore-capital-investments-bh-group-bhgroup_indictment.pdf


Some dinarians have read this and still cling to the big RV fantasy, dismissing the wording in the indictment as "smoke".  Folks, you don't put a case like this together without making sure it's solid.  If there was any chance that Iraq would revalue their currency to any substantial amount the prosecution wouldn't have included any reference to it in the case for fraud IMO.  They would just prosecute them on the hedge fund and money laundering stuff.   

So we can see here that in the case for fraud the indictment lists the misrepresentation of the CBI's proposal to remove three zeroes (a redenomination or "lop") as an RV that will make investors wealthy overnight.  Some of these gurus took notice and quit saying that we're gonna be rich when they remove the zeros.  Thus the float theory.

The problems with the float theory are numerous.  First of all, countries as unstable as Iraq don't float their currencies as a rule.  It would hurt their economy to subject the dinar to the volatility that a free float would present.   

Secondly, nothing in Iraq's history suggests that the official value of the dinar is being artificially held down.  To the contrary, it appears that it is being propped up considering the difficulty Iraq has had in keeping the market price in the same ballpark as the official value as it fluctuates from 1200-1300 IQD to the dollar.  The often touted story from 2004 about the CBI buying back dollars with dinar to keep the dinar from appreciating too much was a reference to the market price, not the official value.  Remember, the IQD is pegged to the USD so the official value can't appreciate apart from a decree from the CBI.  It has been eight years since they had any concerns about the market price going too high in Iraq.  The problem now is the value going too low. 

Additionally, a float does nothing to reduce the money supply, which is the reason the dinar's value is so low in the first place.  Until the money supply is significantly reduced a float would likely result in depreciation rather than appreciation. 

It is my belief that when the CBI makes a reference to floating the value of the dinar they're either talking about a managed float of a few % with the official value or they're talking about raising the market price via the auctions by manipulating the money supply within Iraq.  They have no intention of putting the dinar on a free float in the international market IMO. 


Another issue that keeps coming up is the Feasibility Study from the Ministry of Planning in Iraq.  Supposedly this study shows us the real value of the dinar at $3.20 but they can't come right out of the gate that high.  They need to RV to something like $1.13 and then slowly float up to $3.20. 

I would like to put this Feasibility Study/Justification Report nonsense to rest once and for all.  It has nothing to do with the IQD.  It refers to the official value of the dinar as $3.20 but the dinar's official value has been less than a tenth of a penny since 1995 according to the CBI website, so it has to be at least 17 years old.  I think you'll find that the study was published in 1984 and revised in 1990 regarding the old Saddam dinar (thanks to Brian for the info on this). 

From the website for the Ministry of Planning we read:

In turn, The Guidance For Technical And Economic Feasibility Studies And Post-Project Assessment Of Development Project (Regulations No. 1 for the Year of 1984 and it’s amendment for the year of 1990) has specifies a series of steps to be undertaken, which lead to the completion of a Capital Budget.
http://www.mop.gov.iq/mop/index.jsp?sid=1&id=295&pid=259

Then if you click on the 7th link that says "The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies" you will find the study in question.

The real value of the IQD is not $3.20.  It's not $1.13.  It's not $.86.  It's a tenth of a penny.  According to the CBI website's financials there's 72 trillion dinar in the M2 money supply.  This study was conducted when Iraq's money supply was measured in the billions, not trillions, so it makes no sense to base any analysis or investment decisions on anything in this report. 


Then there's the dong.  When all else fails pump the dong.  Think about it, folks.  Vietnam has had over 35 years to raise the value of their currency.  And it keeps going down.  Why?  Because they want it to, that's why. 

"The government has pushed to lower the value of the Dong in the hopes of pushing up exports and fostering export oriented economic growth (also referred to as export led development)."

Vietnam's economy is growing, and countries with emerging economies like this prefer a depreciating currency to an appreciating one so that they can pay their debt with cheaper currency and increase their exports.

Prior to the 1970s most mortgages in the US were fixed-rate mortgages.  In other words, the homeowner paid the same interest rate for the duration of the mortgage.  When double-digit inflation hit in the late 70s many homeowners were paying 7 or 8% interest on homes that were appreciating at nearly 15% a year and interest rates were higher than that.  Lenders were losing money and the homeowners were loving every minute of it because they were paying off the mortgage with cheaper dollars on a home that was rapidly increasing in value.  Lenders were actually bribing them to refinance.  This is what led to the emergence of ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages).  Lenders wanted to cover their arses in the event of an unforseen recurrence of high inflation.   

In the same way countries like Vietnam can pay their bills with cheaper currency by allowing it to depreciate somewhat, so long as it doesn't get out of control.  The only reason Vietnam would have for raising the value of their currency is if inflation was a concern like it was in Iraq from 2006-2009 when they were raising the value of the IQD by about 9% a year.  Believe it or not neither Iraq, Vietnam, nor any other country is going to raise the value of their currency just to put wads of cash in the pockets of speculators.  That's a shocker, huh?


There's a few other topics being bandied about in the dinar world like Ban Ki-moon and Chapter 7 (irrelevant), and the Kurds (ditto).  Breitling is telling people that Germany's currency returned to its pre-war value in eight years so Iraq is dragging their feet a bit. In fact the German deutschemark didn't "return" to anything. It replaced the pre-war currency the German reichsmark in 1948 so any notion that a currency can return to its pre-war value without a redenomination isn't supported by the history of the deutschemark. FootForward is telling people that hedge funds drove the Kuwaiti dinar up to $9 after the Kuwaiti "RV" in 1991 which is about as accurate as his World Series prediction.  BGG is still talking about Maliki, Shabibi, Barzani, Talabani, Allawi and everybody else in the GOI and CBI who might have something to do with Iraq's currency reform, as if any of this is going to lead to substantial profits for any of BGG's listeners.  And the dinar?  Well, last I checked it hasn't done diddly.  That's a shocker too, huh?  I actually thought that removing Shabibi might bring about some increase in the dinar's value but it looks like his replacement is content to leave it be.

This is the time of year when gurus traditionally start setting dates and telling everybody it's going to be a very Merry Christmas and a very prosperous New Year (read BIG RV!!!).  And of course the holidays come and go and ..... nada!  Just a reminder of what to expect.

Last year I wrote a post called A Letter to Santa in which I asked to see some pumpers go to jail.  Well Santa delivered four indictments in September so he's halfway there.  Good job, Santa!  Now I am making the same request this Christmas.  How about a few more indictments in 2013?  You can do it, you jolly old elf!  I know you can!   




Merry Christmas everybody!




Sunday, October 28, 2012

Trick or Treat


I've been enjoying my hiatus from doing dinar research and blogging, but a few things have surfaced recently that I couldn't ignore.  First, has anybody heard from our dear friends Dan and Tony at PTR lately?  Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think they've done any weekly conference calls in over a month.  Could it be that the indictments of Rudy and Brad sent them into hiding?  Maybe they've been taken with Dr. Todd to an undisclosed location awaiting the verdict.

Also, dinar guru FootForward recently stated that God revealed to him that the Tigers would win the World Series (the last minute of the call).  He said this after they swept the series against the Yankees and it looked like they were a cinch to win it all.  Well as of now they are trailing the Giants three games to zip and have yet to even score a run.  I know it's counterintuitive but having a few days off before the World Series can do a team more harm than good.  Seems their little break after the short series with the Yankees might have cost them their competitive edge.  Many times things that seem so obvious turn out to be far from the truth .... you know, like the dinar being undervalued and oil countries have to have valuable currencies.  Maybe the Tigers will make an historic comeback and win four straight against the apparently superior Giants, but I'd say their odds aren't much better than the odds of the dinar RV'ing to $1.  If the Tigers lose I presume I will be reporting on the public stoning of the Canadian false prophet/dinar guru affectionately known as FootForward.  I wonder if the BIG Call guys would be willing to broadcast that?

10/29/12  UPDATE!!!  Giants closed out the series last night winning 4-3 in 10 innings.  Looks like FF got some 'splainin to do.  If I get any details on the time and location of the stoning I'll be sure to announce it.

10/31/12  UPDATE!!!  FF did a conference call last night where he failed to mention the failed prophecy.  In Q&A a caller asked him about it and FF said he heard God wrong, that he assumed that God was talking about this year but it might be years from now when the Tigers will win the World Series.  Nice try, but here's what you said FF:

God gave me a word a while ago about Detroit being one of the centers that was going to really ... God was really going to revive ... it was gonna be a ripple effect where you know ... certain areas would really be heavily affected and the blessing would ripple out from there.  Before the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees series started I was told that the Tigers would win the World Series and that that would be a sign that Detroit was gonna be revived and restored.  I got that just before game 1 started and sure enough Derek Jeter broke his ankle and the Yankees lost tonight so the series has been a sweep, so look for that as well.  That is going to be a sign and I want to get that on record.

And on record it went.  The context here clearly shows that this was a "word from God" concerning THIS World Series, and that the imminent RV would trigger this revitalization in Detroit (presumably by all of the new cars being purchased by the new dinar millionaires).  There are currently 30 teams in MLB, and 22 of them have won a WS.  The 8 who haven't won one have been established since 1960 including the Tampa Devil Rays who are only 14 years old, so it's a pretty safe bet that the Tigers will win a WS at some point in the future.  So saying that God told him that they would win the WS in the future is somewhat akin to saying that God told him that a trailer park will be hit by a tornado at some point in the future. 

Can you imagine a false prophet in the Old Testament era trying to wiggle out of a failed prophecy like this as they drag his arse before the village for a public stoning?  FF is fortunate to live in modern times where he can have his sidekick Bruce say "we'll forgive you" as he did on this call. 


And finally, there is a new guru doing conference calls and spewing out the same old RV BS.  His name is John Gilha, and he's the head of a program called Zero Debt in 90 Days.  A link to his conference call was listed on IQD Calls so I clicked on it and listened.  He says he's anticipating a minimum return of 1000 times, which would turn your $1000 investment into a cool $1 million although he really thinks it will end up closer to $4 which would make you a multimillionaire post-RV.  Among the misinformation he shared:
  1. EO 13303 gives us the right to invest in the dinar (apparently he didn't read the indictment handed down to Brad Huebner and Rudy Coenen because it included the misrepresentation of EO 13303 in the case for fraud)
  2. The windfall from the Kuwaiti dinar RV is what allowed Clinton to balance the budget (the mythical Kuwaiti RV allegedly occurred in 1991 and the balanced (?) budget didn't appear until 1994)
  3. The only risk (other than having your dinar stolen or destroyed in a fire) is the small loss you would incur if you decided to sell your dinar back to a dealer (if Iraq lops you could end up with worthless currency .... also the currency could decline in value or the government could be toppled or they could go to war or they could have an earthquake ..... etc.)
Well you know me .... I catch a whiff of a scammer and I'm off on the hunt.  This one was easy, though.  Ten minutes and I was done.

http://florida.arrests.org/Arrests/John_Gliha_7194746/

http://consumers.creditnet.com/Discussions/credit-talk/t-john-glihas-debt-elimination-60384.html

http://www.zerodebtguaranteed.com/Videos.html


In the call they mentioned a book I've never heard of before called "Windfall & Wealth Management for Dinar & Dong Investors" by Charles Lahue which sells on Lulu.com for a mere $97. They also mention the excellent reserve program offered from Dinar Corp and the wonderful dinar analysis from Dinar Updates (BGG) and the IQD Team. I don't know if John Gilha is involved with any of these people but you could hardly blame a guy for having his suspicions, ya know?

Happy Halloween everybody!






Friday, October 19, 2012

Arresting Developments

I've been following the latest drama unfolding with the allegations against Shabibi and I felt that I should make a few comments.  First of all I need to reiterate that I have never called the dinar a scam.  I do think it's a scam to promote dinar sales on the notion that the value will go up 100,000% or more at the flip of a switch when the largest revaluation in history was less than 40%.  I also think it's fraudulent to tell people that the CBI's plan to remove three zeros is actually a reference to a revaluation (pulling the 000 notes out of circulation to reduce the money supply) instead of a revenue neutral redenomination, and the recent federal indictment against the BH Group and Rudy Coenen confirms that fact.  However, I have always maintained that it is possible to make a profit with the dinar, and have stated several times that I still own a small amount for that reason.  My problem with the pumpers/gurus isn't that they're saying the dinar might go up in value, because it could and it has done so in the past.  My problem is that they're lying about the upside and downside potential.  There was never any chance that you could turn $1000 into $1,000,000 and there was always a chance that the dinar would be demonetized with no way for investors to redeem their IQD for USD or the new dinar, meaning that every dollar invested in dinar was at risk.

Well now we have a good example of how things can change in favour of dinar investors.  Shabibi's currency reform plan was always a lop, despite the voluminous and vociferous protestations from the perpetrators of pumpitude.  His plan to delete the zeros was from the beginning an event which would result in zero profits for dinar investors.  Now that Shabibi has apparently been removed (at least temporarily - I'm not going to speculate on the legitimacy of the allegations or the outcome) some people like BondLady are coming around and saying that this could be a good thing because Shabibi wanted to lop and his replacement is pro-RV.  Better late than never I suppose.

The options for Iraq have always been pretty much limited to stagnation (like we've seen since 2009), a lop, or a slow growth scenario toward a penny.  One of the reasons I decided to take a break from blogging about the dinar was my belief that nothing significant would happen with the value of the dinar for a year or two with Shabibi and parliament at an impasse.  With Shabibi out of the picture that could very well change now.  Do I expect my dinar to be worth 1000 times more next week?  Absolutely not.  100 times more?  No.  10 times more?  Again, no I don't.  But I do think we could see the dinar's value increase by 10% a year or more.  Perhaps much more.  That wasn't going to happen with Shabibi in charge because as an economist he was focused on stability.  From what I'm able to ascertain his replacement Abdel-Basit Turki is not an economist, but has served as a minister of human rights instead.  With him in charge of the CBI I have to believe that Maliki has more control and the potential for an increase in the dinar's value has just gone up exponentially.

That's no guarantee that it will happen, of course.  And it could just as easily go down, so the risk factor is still there.  But the potential for a proft of any kind is better now than it was a couple of weeks ago, and the likelihood of a lop has decreased proportionately IMO. 

With Shabibi at the helm the money supply was growing consistently and the exchange rate was motionless.  With Turki in charge that could change.  We could start to see the M2 figure retreat from over 70 trillion back to the 60 trillion neighborhood.  We could see a reduction in the percentage of backing in foreign currency reserves.  Any number of factors could change the landscape for the dinar investor.  Despite all of the lying, scamming, and general douchebaggery that this blog has pointed out over the past year or so, the crazy thing is that the potential for profit has always existed and still does.  The change in leadership at the CBI could signal a shift in that potential.  I'll be keeping an eye on the situation.  Meanwhile I'm watching for more developments in the dinar fraud investigation.  I'm not a big fan of "intel" but I'm hearing that more arrests are coming.  I'll be sure to report anything significant.

Shabibi and Stability
Maliki and the RV
Maliki and the RV II
Deleting the Zeros



       

 

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Reuters Article

An article from Reuters entitled "MIDEAST MONEY-Iraq dinar is short-term disappointment, long-term bet" came out Wednesday and it confirms some of the things I've been saying for some time now.  My comments will be added below.



BAGHDAD, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Many Iraqis have lost faith in their dinar currency but to some foreign speculators, it promises big profits. The contrast underlines the uncertainties of investing in Iraq as the country recovers from years of war and economic sanctions.

The logic of the dinar bulls is simple. Iraq's oil exports rose to 2.6 million barrels per day in September, their highest level in three decades; the country aims to hit 6 million bpd by 2017, which would put it close to Saudi Arabia's current level.

Even if unstable politics, militant violence and bureaucratic inefficiency prevent that target from being hit, Iraq still seems to be on the threshold of an oil boom that will transform its finances.

Inflows of new oil revenue could give the country big external surpluses and push state finances deep into the black by late this decade - the classic recipe for a strong currency.

"As far as our investors are concerned, when they buy Iraqi dinars they do know it is a long-term investment. You know it takes time for a country to rebuild itself," said Hassnain Ali Agha, president of Dinar Trade, a U.S. dealer of exotic currencies.

Because the dinar is not freely traded by banks outside Iraq, online dealers of banknotes such as Dinar Trade are the only way that most foreigners can invest in the currency. The Las Vegas-based company says it sells as much as hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of dinars daily, shipping dinar notes to thousands of customers in the United States and elsewhere.

Agha said that because of optimism about Iraq's oil wealth, there had been solid demand for dinars since his company was founded in 2004, a year after the U.S. invasion which triggered years of political violence and economic turmoil.

Back in Baghdad, however, Iraqis themselves are not convinced. Many take what opportunities they have to change their dinars into hard currency, and conduct all but small day-to-day transactions in U.S. dollars.

"We have no trust in the Iraqi dinar - we feel afraid to save it. We trust the dollar more. The dollar does not go up and down, it is fixed," said housewife and mother-of-two Eman Saadeldine.



WILD SWINGS

The dinar has endured wild swings over the past three decades. In the 1980s, one dinar bought around $3, but economic sanctions imposed on Iraq around the time of the 1991 Gulf War sent the currency into decline and stoked inflation, which the government fuelled by printing money. By late 1995, $1 bought as much as 3,000 dinars.

After the 2003 invasion, the central bank intervened in the currency market to strengthen the dinar, using its supplies of dollars to manage the exchange rate.

But over the last several years, even as Iraq's oil production has expanded, there has been none of the appreciation for which speculators have been hoping. The central bank now sells dollars in daily auctions at a fixed price of 1,166 dinars, a level barely changed since 2009.

In fact, the dinar has recently faced downward pressure as a result of the international economic sanctions imposed on neighbouring Iran and Syria. Iraqi traders rushed to buy dollars to sell on illicitly to residents and businesses in those countries, which are hungry for hard currency.

The dinar fell as low as 1,280 in the open market this year before Iraqi authorities reacted by allowing two state-run banks and some private lenders to sell dollars, helping push the exchange rate back to around 1,200 currently.

Another factor counting against the dinar is the fact that the largest banknote is only 25,000 dinars. This often makes the currency unattractive to use in an economy where the banking system is primitive and deals are often done in cash.

Saadeldine recalls paying in cash for a new house in 2009.

"If our money had been in dinars, it would have been impossible for us to carry it. It was in dollars and we carried it in a small suitcase," she said.

The central bank has been considering plans to knock three zeros off the nominal value of banknotes to simplify financial transactions. This would not in itself increase the real value of the dinar, since prices would adjust in line with the redenomination, but economic experts say it could improve confidence in the dinar and thus boost its value eventually.

"It would increase trust in the dinar even though its value would not change," said Baghdad-based economist Majid al-Souri. "Indirectly, when trust increases there will be appreciation."

Earlier this year, however, the cabinet decided to suspend the technically complex redenomination plan until further notice, saying the economic climate was not suitable.

The biggest obstacle to dinar appreciation is the fact that for now at least, Iraqi authorities appear content with the exchange rate in its current range.

In a memorandum to the International Monetary Fund on economic and financial policies for 2011, written in March that year, the Iraqi government said it saw benefits in keeping the dinar stable.

"We believe that the policy of maintaining a stable exchange rate continues to be appropriate, as it provides a solid anchor for the public's expectations in an otherwise uncertain environment and in an economy with a still very low level of financial intermediation," it said.



LONG TERM

In the long term, however, Iraq's finances and economy may improve so dramatically that authorities feel comfortable allowing the dinar to appreciate under the pressure of flows of oil money into the country.

The IMF expects this year's estimated budget surplus of just 0.2 percent of gross domestic product to balloon to 12.1 percent in 2017. The country's balance of trade in goods and services, in deficit as recently as 2010, is projected over the next five years to shift to a large surplus of 11.3 percent of GDP.

Deputy central bank governor Mudher Kasim told Reuters that he expected redenomination of the dinar to go ahead in 2014 or later, by which time the amount of Iraqi currency in circulation would have increased significantly, making financial dealings in cash even harder.

In the long term, the central bank aims to make 1 dinar equal to $1 with a combination of redenomination and appreciation, although that will take over three years because of instability in the Middle East, Kasim said: "If not for the regional circumstances, we would proceed faster with that plan."

Some analysts think the appreciation could go further. Kamal al-Basri, research director at the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reforms, an independent research body in Baghdad, said he expected the dinar to stay stable for the next three years, but that afterwards it might strengthen beyond parity against the dollar, including the effect of redenomination.

For that to happen, Iraqi politics will have to stabilise, skill and education levels rise and the economy diversify so that it is not so heavily dependent on oil exports, he said.

Speaking at the Baghdad currency exchange shop that he owns, Ahmed Abdul-Ridha said the dinar's stability in the past three years was good, but it did not indicate the long-term trend.

"We wish the dinar's value would go back to what it was like before, when it used to equal $3 in the 1970s and even in the 1980s," he said.

"I expect that day will come. Why not? What we are going through is an abnormal condition...We are an oil country."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/03/iraq-economy-dinar-idUSL5E8KT13720121003



My first observation is that Iraqis are concerned about the volatility of the dinar.  Now why should they be concerned?  The dinar's value is pegged to the US dollar after all, and to my knowledge hasn't declined in value since it was introduced nine years ago.  Well the fact is there are two values for the IQD - the official value and the market value.  This is a foreign concept to Americans but in Iraq the street value can vary from the official value considerably.  Take a look at this chart from the CBI website.


As you can see the Auction Price reflects the official exchange rate and the Market Price is the street price which has fallen considerably against the dollar this year.  This is why the CBI had to step in recently to bring the street value closer to the official value, as was discussed in this article.   

Majid picture, that the U.S. dollar in freefall and Sesawe Iraqi dinar exchange rate in the next few days, praising measures the central bank "successful" to reduce the dinar exchange rate against the dollar. said Suri (of the Agency news) today Sunday: One of the important factors for the high exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar in the summer months the past is the high demand and tight supply and exploitation of banking companies for citizens to raise the price of the dollar, prompting the central bank to increase supply in the currency auction. added: that the success of actions the central bank to reduce dollar against the dinar would make dollar equals Iraqi dinar per the next few days. confirmed the picture: the decline of the dollar was limited only to demand cash and not remittances, noting that the transfer obtained by the merchant through banks and banking companies circulated at the official rate, The cash demand by citizens through banking offices fell to its dependence on the supply and demand factor.

http://www.sotaliraq.com/mobile-news.php?id=72841#ixzz27wuhAqCc

What I believe this article is saying is that banks in Iraq were gouging the people on the value of the dollar which led to a decline in the street value of the dinar against the dollar. When the central bank bought dinars with dollars that seemed to bring the dollar's value down and the dinar's value back up as supply and demand did their thing. If you don't understand that there are two markets for currency in Iraq you won't understand these articles. The official value (which is the value of the IQD that investors hold) wasn't affected. Only the street value was.  

Of course some of the gurus completely misinterpreted this article and focused on the fact that the CBI was manipulating the exchange rate and said that this confirms that they're hiding the true value. Rubbish! They were just managing the market value which is something they've done for years. The gurus focused on the words "would make dollar equals Iraqi dinar per the next few days". I believe that this is just referring to the CBI's success in bringing the street exchange rate closer to the official exchange rate of dinar per dollar.

Which brings to mind another article from the NY Times a few years ago entitled "Billions Over Baghdad". In this article there was a reference to the appreciation of the dinar shortly after the currency was changed in 2004.


Because the new Iraqi dinar was so popular, the central bank bought billions of United States dollars to keep it from appreciating too much.


Again, the dinar is a pegged currency so it doesn't appreciate apart from the occasional adjustment by the CBI which has only occurred once since 2009. The appreciation that this article was referring to was the market price in Iraq and had nothing to do with the official value of the dinar held by speculators.

 
The next point in the Reuters article I'd like to address is this paragraph.

The central bank has been considering plans to knock three zeros off the nominal value of banknotes to simplify financial transactions. This would not in itself increase the real value of the dinar, since prices would adjust in line with the redenomination, but economic experts say it could improve confidence in the dinar and thus boost its value eventually.

This confirms what I've been saying about "deleting three zeros" means redenomination (lop), which yields no net increase in the value. This was also stated in the recent indictment of the four dinar pumpers who were arrested on fraud and money laundering charges.  And for anybody who thinks "deleting three zeros" is a mistranslation of the Arabic reference to removing the three zero notes from circulation, bear in mind that this is a Reuters article written in English, not an Arabic article translated into English. 


Next we have this.

In a memorandum to the International Monetary Fund on economic and financial policies for 2011, written in March that year, the Iraqi government said it saw benefits in keeping the dinar stable.

This confirms what I wrote recently about Shabibi and Stability. Contrary to what the gurus are telling us Iraq likes the exchange rate just like it is, and that's why it's not going up.  It's not because of Maliki or Obama or the Kurds or Kuwait or China or anybody else.  It's because the Iraqis don't see fit to raise it. 


And finally, we read this.

Deputy central bank governor Mudher Kasim told Reuters that he expected redenomination of the dinar to go ahead in 2014 or later, by which time the amount of Iraqi currency in circulation would have increased significantly, making financial dealings in cash even harder.

As I have been saying, rather than reducing the money supply the CBI is representing the growth in their economy by increasing the money supply. The deputy governor of the CBI anticipates further increases over the next year or two according to the article. Also, as I suspected the currency reform apparently won't happen for another year or more. This is one reason I have decided not to spend as much time as I was on the blog. (I never said I wasn't going to post anymore as some are claiming.)  I can't see myself posting three times a week for the next year or two like I've been doing for a year now. In fact I was just going to stop posting entirely unless something significant occurred. Well wouldn't you know it? Right before the one year point of my blog the arrests took place. How could I not post on that? And I now anticipate more developments.

I had been told recently that something significant was about to happen with investigations of dinar fraud, but I dismissed it just like all of the other dinar rumours I hear. In this case however the rumour proved to have substance. Now I am told to expect further movement along these lines so I might have to put my blogging hiatus on hold. Nothing would make me happier, I assure you.






 

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Dinar Indictments

"Removing Three Zeros"
Brad Huebner, Charlie Emmenecker, and
Michael Teadt doing the perp walk
 

Kudos to MrIQD for staying on top of this story for four months now.  Seems that three of the guys featured on my blog's banner have new photos on the internet, courtesy of law enforcement.  Brad Huebner, Charlie Emmenecker, and Rudolph Coenen have all been indicted on dinar-related charges.  Hopefully there are more indictments to come.  Today BGG dismissed this as "no big deal", "a little trouble", "a goofy article", and "tax trouble".  Folks these guys were charged with defrauding investors out of $23.8 million dollars in dinar sales and $700,000 from non-existent hedge fund seats.  I'd say that qualifies as a big deal.  Breitling said that it was about structuring, but there's a little more to it than that.  The article says they repeatedly made false statements to sell dinar.   If making false statements to sell dinar is a federal offense I have to assume there are more arrests coming.  And what Breitling failed to mention is that according to Brad Huebner, Breitling was part of their marketing team for LDHL (24 minutes in). 

I've been telling you for a year now that the dinar world is full of crooks.  This is just the latest example.  Of course they're all presumed innocent until proven guilty in a court of law by a jury of their peers.  Nobody wants to deny them their rights.  But this is the biggest development in the history of this blog, and will no doubt send reverberations throughout the dinar world.  Read the indictment in the pdf file below to see how a federal document completely debunks what gurus are saying about the dinar.


Rudy Coenen mug shot
http://www.realscam.com/attachments/f12/1576d1348185792-bayshore-capital-investments-bh-group-bhgroup_indictment.pdf (Thanks to Real Scam for providing this.  I addressed some of the lies listed in the indictment in my post "Dinar 101 - From the BH Group")

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2012/09/21/3-local-men-face-chargesof-defrauding-investors.html

http://jacksonville.com/news/crime/2012-09-20/story/ohio-indicts-jacksonville-man-iraqi-dinar-fraud-scheme#ixzz273uElQdC

http://www.13abc.com/story/19594414/local-men-charged-with-fraud-in-multi-million-dollar-scheme-to-sell-iraqi-currency

http://mriqd.com/2012/09/20/breaking-bh-group-brad-huebner-bayshore-capital-rudy-coehen-indicted-by-a-federal-grand-jury-for-fraud-schemes/#comment-89



9/21/12 UPDATE!!!   I've read through the indictment now and have had a day or so to reflect on this story.  Here are my observations.

  1. The indictment states that the CBI has expressed their intent to redenominate, not revalue.  Printing new currency and removing three zeros will be done for the sake of convenience, and won't change the value of the dinar.  (Just like we've been saying.)  Therefore promoting the dinar investment based on the presumed upcoming revaluation (#8) is fraudulent. 
  2. The indictment addresses the non-existent hedge funds.  This raises the question regarding other dinar gurus and dealers.  Does the post-RV product that they offer exist?  Is the post-RV service that they offer legit?  If the RV itself isn't legit as stated in the indictment it would be hard to imagine a post-RV product or service being legit.  So anybody using a special cash-in deal as incentive to buy into anything has to be rethinking that idea right about now.  Or any tax avoidance plan or any scheme to move revalued IQD out of the country to avoid taxes.  It will be interesting to see these guys revamp their dog and pony shows now. 
  3. The indictment states that EO13303 says nothing about the right to invest in the dinar, but refers to protection of the DFI.  This is also a point that many of us have been making for some time, and we now have official confirmation. 
  4. The indictment states that the US Treasury only holds a nominal amount of IQD for daily transactions.  Now we have evidence that they hold no IQD for investment purposes.  We've been saying all along that there is no evidence that the UST holds any dinar for any upcoming RV, but for some reason we were never quoted on Dinar Recaps, Dinar Guru, or Dinar Daddy.  Wonder why? 
  5. The indictment addresses Rudy's false claims about his background.  This raises the issue of gurus/dealers lying about their backgrounds in order to sell dinar, dinar services, dinar related products, or any other investment related product.
  6. The indictment mentions repeated lies told by the accused to sell dinar.  Anybody selling or pumping dinar for a dealer has to now realize that they could be the next ones doing the perp walk.  Review the page "Forum Facts" to see what lies they've been telling.
  7. The indictment reveals that an undercover agent bought dinar from Michael Teadt in May of 2011, so we know that the feds have been working undercover on the dinar case for over 16 months now. 
This is a good day, indeed.  We now know for a fact that the authorities weren't ignoring the situation.  They were just taking their time to build an airtight case.  My hope is that their intent was to make it so bleak for these guys that they will reveal everything that they know about the other douchebags in order to get reduced sentences, in which case I will have other arrests to report.  We can only hope.





Wednesday, September 19, 2012

More of the Best of Breitling

Over the past year of posting about the dinar I have found that one of the best ways to learn about it is to fact check what the gurus are saying.  Nobody puts more "information" and analysis out there than Tony "Breitling", so naturally I have listened to him quite a bit.  In fact I've created a separate blog just to address some of the things he's said lately.  It's called The Breitling Watch and there's a permanent link under Related Sites.

This will be my last post on Breitling unless he gets arrested or something equally newsworthy happens.  I had a lot of information left over from my previous Breitling research that I didn't know what to do with, so I decided to post assorted comments from The Tonester from 2009-2010.  For those of you who feel that I'm being cruel just remember how many people are being influenced to spend money they really can't afford on dinar, not just by Breitling but by all of these guys.  Think about the lives that have been ruined, marriages wrecked, homes foreclosed ..... even suicides.  (One guy wrote Breitling asking about when the RV would happen, saying that his house was about to be foreclosed.  B's response was "let 'em take the damn house!  You can buy another one after the RV!"  And people think I'm the douchebag?)  I have heard far too many of these stories and they're all a result of comments from people who either don't know what the flip they're talking about or are scamming people.


First of all I want to respond to a recent comment by Mr. B.  He was "debunking" my post on "Shabibi and Stability" when he cited an article from 2010 where Saleh from the CBI said:

"I've been working for years to improve the value of the Iraqi dinar exchange, and was taking several measures until we came to the stability of its value at 1170 dinars to the dollar."

Breitling presents this as proof that the CBI's policy is in fact to raise the value (meaning purchasing power) of the dinar, but this actually supports the contention that I've been making that every reference to raising the value is either talking about via redenomination or about raising the street value via the auctions.  Notice Saleh went on to talk about currency reform that will reduce the money supply from 25 trillion to 15 billion dinar, exchange rate stability, deleting three zeros, and issuing new currency to facilitate payments as Shabibi spoke about when he was in DC last year.  This describes a redenomination or "lop" to a T.

"Reform Progress
He disclosed that the new strategy has begun the reform of management system of the national currency and payment system of Iraq, said that this will be the basis in the application of Istratejp to reform the currency. The Iraqi official was likely that these steps will take a year or more.

..........

.........

In 1990, the cash block of 28 billion dinars, and became a six trillion dinars in 2003, and now stands at 25 trillion dinars. He said that this has become necessary to change the payment system because of the Iraqi economy on the verge of developing and producing oil major which leads to a large expenditure.

According to the adviser at the CBI, the new strategy will transform the current monetary mass (25 trillion dinars) to $ 15 billion through the adoption of coins and the smaller Iraqi currency.
.............
..............

Relative stability
For his part, said a banking expert, Mohammed al-Samarrai said the Iraqi dinar is witnessing a relatively stable for the time being, and security conditions influenced the rise and a slight decrease is not as great as in the past............

...........

Surplus oil
The Iraqi banking expert Mohamed Kamel Hussein said that there was a perception among the Iraqi Central Bank to raise three zeroes from the value of the dinar, by issuing a new currency to improve its value.

However, he believed that the lifting of the three zeros will not change anything because the factors affecting the exchange of the dinar against foreign currency depends on the surplus that is supplied by oil revenues."


http://dinaroutcast.forumotion.com/t8204-an-iraqi-official-announced-the-adoption-of-a-new-strategy-intended-to-raise-the-value-of-the-iraqi-dinar-against-foreign-currencies


So B proved my point without realizing it.




Here's an oldie but a goodie.  Back when Breitling was still posting at Med's site Dinar Speculator he was asked about a recent bombing at the CBI. 


Breitling chat: Dinar Speculator 6/21/10 @ 6:30pm June 21, 2010
irishbrian says to (19:02:43):

B, if they drag out the forming of the Gov’t would the wiser heads in the IMF and CBI relaize that the people need something to calm them down and the revalue would at least help to do that. Also the bombings of both CBi and TBI by the insurgents was not a conicidence?

BREITLING says to (19:04:07):

THE BOMBING WERE BECAUSE THEY DID NOT RV

NOT TO STOP IT

http://iraqidinarnews.net/blog/2010/06/22/breitling-chat-dinar-speculator-62110-630pm/



Yep.  According to the Tonester insurgents bombed the CBI because they didn't RV.  So imagine if you will a bunch of dirty, smelly, scruffy insurgents sitting around quoting the Koran, smoking cigarettes, and discussing the latest CBI financial statement. 

"Achmed, what is latest figure on foreign currency reserves?" 
"$43 billion"
"Still backing 100%?"
"Think so."
"Abdul, latest figures for M1 and M2?"
"25 trillion, 58 trillion"
"You believe them?
"Of course not.  Liars!"

"I agree ... Mustafa, latest GDP?"
"$105 billion, give or take."
"Opinions?"
" Still undervalued."
"Agreed.  We Bomb!"
"ALLAHU AKBAR!!!"


Even for Breitling this is stupid.  We're talkin' Okie Oilman stupid.  The CBI was bombed for the same reason every other target was - either sectarianism or resistance to the democratization of Iraq.


Before this fine piece of Iraqi news analysis came an impressive example of B's grasp of modern finance.

4/5/09

In Fractional reserve banking ( which CBI is using) you take $1000 down to the bank and deposit the funds. The bank in return can loan 10 X that amount in credit but it is all based on money's or currency that is not there. you people are simply not under standing how banks work or how they get wealth. so you get a annual report the bank is going to post the inflated credits as if they had real currency. Iraq does not have 35 trillion dinars in hard currency. they have 9 trillion end of story. If i go down to my local bank and i was the only customer and deposit $1000 the bank will report it has $9000 in value. ok they take that $9000 give out a $1000 loan they can add another $9000 to the value of the bank with one deposit and one loan they are at $19,000 in value. is this BS oh hell yeah. but this is how banks are ran and they can pump up the numbers like this as did CBI and every other bank that uses fractional reserve banking. please no more lectures on banking and M2 reports how it all works ,links with shoty definition. and i work part time as a plumber/ construction worker/ banking expert advice. again only place on the planet people are saying Iraq has 35 trillion hard currency is on IIF. so I know you guys are trolling over here. lets get back to the rumors. because as far as i am concerned any one's guess on dates, is as good as any one Else's guess, and plus it is fun. and yes you can float a false rate based on this information example UNITED STARES OF AMERICA. we do it and why should Iraq not do it they have the same system as we do. they same people who own the Federal reserve run the world bank, and the IMF, they own our currency and they own Iraq;s currency also, CAN YOU SAY SLAVES. they manipulate the world through banks. with value that does not really exist.


http://www.dinarrumor.com/showthread.php?1241-Activity-at-the-CBI-on-4-02-09&p=8208#post8208


I asked John Jagerson about the fractional reserve cash-in theory.  He said that right now we only have about $2 trillion USD in circulation.  If investors suddenly cashed in $2 trillion via fractional reserve banking it would double the dollars in circulation virtually overnight which of course would lead to a considerable devaluation if not a crash of the dollar. 

B then says that there was only 9 trillion dinar in circulation in 2009 .... "end of story".  But the CBI website financial statement indicates that there were 21 trillion dinar outside of banks and 45 trillion in the M2 in 2009.  So I guess there was more to the story, huh? 

http://www.cbi.iq/documents/key%20financial.xls


And finally, no Iraq doesn't have the same system that the US does, not when it comes to their currency.  The USD is a free floating currency that is recognized as a world reserve currency.  The IQD is a pegged currency of a country that inspires so little confidence that they're backing it 100% with their foreign currency reserves and they still have trouble maintaining the official value on the streets of Iraq.



In February of 2010 B said that the RV was in the budget.  I don't know how many times I've heard that over the past couple of years but I'm convinced that this started on Med's site and B was repeating what he heard.

February 3, 2010

THE RV IS ALREADY IN THE BUDGET
I KEEP GETTING IM’S PEOPLE IN PANIC
AKING IF WHAT EVER NEWS COMING OUT IS BAD
JUST REMEMBER THE RV IS IN THE BUDGET

http://dinarded.wordpress.com/2010/02/03/breitling-chat-02-03-2010/


Well, apparently the RV wasn't in the budget, huh?


A few weeks later B says that the Iraqis' pay was cut so that must mean that the dinar will be worth more. 


February 20, 2010

IRAQ IS RUNNING ON 20% OF BUDGET LEFT OVER FROM LAST YEAR
THE NEW BUDGET WILL START SOON
MARCH 1ST
WE ALSO ARE GETTING NEWS OF FUNDS BEING PAIED IN LESS DINAR
BUT WILL SAME VALUE
SO THE END OF THE BUDGET AND THE NEW PAYMENT SCALE ARE ALL IN PLACE
BEFORE ELECTIONS
WHEN THIS YEARS BUDGET STARTS IT VERY WEL CAN HAVE THE NEW RAte in it
SO WE HAVE TO BE SO CLOSE
PEOPLE IN IRAQ ARE GETTING LESS DINAR FOR WORK
BUT THE VALUE IS THE SAME
SO THIS WILL GIVE US A RV
MEANS THE DINAR IS WORHT MORE COOL

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/8976-breitling-chat-ds-22010-1249am/


So I guess these poor Iraqi shmucks have been working for reduced pay for two and a half years now waiting for the RV.  Boy would that suck!



In March 2010 B did a Q & A session at Dinar Daddy.  He was known at the time as one of the main pundits at Med's site Dinar Veterans which became Dinar Speculator.

March 9, 2010

Annonymous Question:
Please dont take this the wrong way. What are your “credentials” and what resources do you have to make you a person of interest concerning this investment. In other words, why should we listen to you? I apologize if this sounds blunt, but I dont know much about you and you are involved with a very controversial person. DD has created a great site. All info, he doesnt give his opinion. Everyones opinion over the last 5 years have unfortunately been wrong. I really dont want to hear opinions anymore. Just facts. According to DD, you fall in that catagory. Thanks you and I appreciate your time and effort. Please

Breitling Answer:
This is a fair question and I appreciate that as a investor I am just that nothing more. In my personal life I own a software company. I never asked anyone to listen to me. I have talked on our private site and some of it has leaked out.  And I have been approached ever since our bread and butter is watching the IMF CBI and GOI. We have not stopped looking at this investment from that perspective. As far as information being wrong I would not know about that I watch what has been done and look for windows, not a hard job really.

Here B only mentions that he owns a software company.  No mention of him being a bank owner, a political consultant, a real estate consultant, a professional investor, a manufacturer .... etc.  All claims he has made over the past year or so.  (I documented this in The Breitling Catalog.)  This doesn't prove anything really, but I do find it interesting.  He had a perfect opportunity to give them the whole Breitling resume and all he mentions is the software company. 



UJGWBW Question:
Breitling, First of all thank you for taking the time to answer our questions. It is greatly appreciated. I know that everyone is very optimistic that we are all going to make a huge amount off of this investment, but what in your opinion are the odds that we make as much as everyone is thinking? From reading Pacster’s info on here he believes we will make about 6 times our money which is a great return, but everyone else tends to believe we will make 1000 times our return.I know that in any investment there is a chance that we could lose money, so what in your opinion are the odds we lose money on this investment? Finally if it does not happen by the elections when do you think the RV will take place? Again thank you for answering our questions.

Breitling Answers:
I don’t know who pacster is and I don’t know where he gets his numbers and I don’t worry about other people posts I don’t ask them for there opinions not interested. I have people who do math all day on this and none of them can agree so I stay away from the rates. Best guess I will go with the Dubai boy’s $1.49 remember best guess only. I really don’t get to much into finding the rate to be honest I just look for the date I spent all I can on this investment no matter what the rate is going to be. so knowing the rate will not help me or do anything for me.  As far as chances of investment not panning out it depends on how you look at it. You know the Dinar is going to go up I mean you have to be a idiot to no think the Dinar is not going to go up, look at all the countries around Iraq and the rate of the currency. Iraq has a ton of recourses. Way more then all in that region So how can the rate not go up ? I mean you have to be blind IMOP not to see it. And, if you think Iraq is going to be below a 1 USD after looking at all those other countries and they don’t want Iraq coming in to low because or labor and export rates. Then I don’t know what to tell ya. So I think your safe and I wish you well with this investment. If it does not next window is when the new budget hits and the new rate may be attached to it. March 15th I think

Well in the two and a half years since he said this the dinar has gone up 1/3 of 1%.  No, it doesn't have to go up.  It obviously doesn't have to do anything.  It could very well stay about where it is for years.

  

CWO4USMC Question:
Breitling, I’m very tired of seeing the dead LOP horse being beaten. That horse is dead IMO but it just won’t go away.. I have a question that I have not seen anyone ask before. IF a LOP happened I.E. the removing/raising of the 000’s will take away the bills with ,000 printed on them. 25,000 10,000 ……. 1,000 will be taken out of circulation, how does this or should I say how “Can” this apply to a bank account with no paper money?

Breitling Answer:
The only people on the planet that talk about LOPS are from one forum and the misunderstanding have been carried to other forums Iraq under any law are in no condition to LOP they could not even if they wanted to they have one of the lowest inflation rates in the world, and LOPS only apply to countries with high inflation 50% and above. This started when WARKA was trying to scare people into buying stock and for the longest time it worked. You don’t need to worry about the LOP. I don’t care how you read the articles Iraq wants the big notes off the market. And the three zeros of the
rate that’s two dif things.

Here you have the blind answering the blind.  The question comes from a guy who thinks that "deleting three zeros" means they will remove the notes with three zeros from circulation.  As I have posted before "deleting zeros" means redenomination (lop) and in a redenomination all denominations are demonetized.  And of course electronic currency is adjusted to reflect the rate of the new currency.

B says that the only people on earth who talk about the lop are the confused members and former members of "one forum" which I believe is a reference to IIF (Investors Iraq Forum).  I guess he forgot about Shabibi.  He said when he was in DC last year that deleting the zeros is being done simply to facilitate payments.  That's what a lop does.  He has also stated that he was studying the redenomination of Turkey, which was a lop.  By the way, Turkey's inflation rate was under 10% when they lopped in 2005.  And if Iraq wants the big notes off the market they've got a strange way of doing it.  The money supply is going up, not down.  How do you increase the money supply while removing the 000 notes from circulation and without raising the value of the dinar?



Gloria Roop Question:
Do you believe that the dinar’s value will increase to its former value in the future? If we all cash some dinar at the opening rv, is it wise to hold on to some and wait out the increase? I truly believe that in the future ( five years or so) that the Iraqi dinar will be the most valuable money in the world. Thank you all so very much for being there for all of us. Your expertise is so very appreciated.

Breitling Answer:
I am right there with you but the way I look at it with the investments I have planned I can make $5 per Dinar on investing it on other projects with in the 5 year mark, so for me it is a big risk, you may be in a dif spot then me so it depends on how you look at it, I also am in the opinion that they will have the number one rated currency on the planet in the 5-10 year range. I wish you and your family well.

That was two and a half years ago so that 5-10 year range is now 2.5-7.5 years.  So far it's gone up 1/3 of 1%.  That means it's increasing in value at a rate of 1% every 7.5 years.  At that rate it will take 750 years to go up 100%.  7,500 years to go up 1,000%.  75,000 years to go up 10,000%.  750,000 years to go up 100,000%.  That means it will take over 3 million years to become the world's most valuable currency.  So according to my math B is off by 3 million years, give or take. 


Sharon Dryden Question:
Again and Again I ask myself, “Why aren’t the Americans living in Iraq and or the nationals” within their own country speaking to each other and their neighbors, and people they would know in other parts of the world about the revalue of the currency and when this event will transpire???!!! Hmmmmm. Thanks, Coloradopinecrone

Breitling Answer:
Maybe this will help you , why did the people in India not buy the currency before the RV. Why did the Chinese not buy into that currency before the RV yet they RV’ed so did India? Why did’nt any one in the eastern block countries buy the new currency before it RVed ? Yet all this countries Rv’ed. kind of makes you go hmmmmmmmmmmm maybe the thought this investment was to good to be true? Like all the other countries that rved from 1955 on up? do your homework. One thing I learned in this life is you cant talk the avg human being out of being poor because it is all just to good to be true, or everyone would be doing it. Keep telling yourself that , just more pie for me.


As I pointed out in The Breitling Catalog the revaluations in India and Canada were each less than 30%.  If you had bought $10,000 worth of either one at precisely the right time your profit would have been between $2500 and $3,000.  A nice profit but "too good to be true"?  Hardly.  Now, if you own $10,000 worth of IQD and it goes from $.00086 to $.86 your profit would be almost $10 million, and THAT IS too good to be true!




March 23, 2010, 2:06 AM

JUST SO YOU GUYS KNOW IRAQ HAS DONE EVERYTHING THE UN AND THE IMF HAVE ASKED
SO WE ARE NOT FAR AWAY
WE ARE CLOSER THEN YOU THINK
........
IRAQ IS HITTING IN ALL CYLANDERS
IT WILL RV
DONT WORRY ABOUT IT
PHmichael says to (18:56:54):
breit ,,,will the imf implement rv if it continues to evade iraqi implementation
PH YES THEY WILL
AND IN THE PAST 50 YEARS THEY HAVE DONE SO
AND WHAT WAS IT THEY GAVE THEM THE POWER TO DO SO
.....
IT WAS THE LOANS THAT GAVE THEM THE POWER
JUST REMEMBER THIS IS CLOSER THEN YOU THINK

http://dinardaddy.wordpress.com/2010/03/23/breitling-chat-dinar-speculator-32210/

 
Well unless they were all thinking that it would be another 3 years I'd say it wasn't closer than they thought.   Even with the IMF loan it hasn't happened yet. 




3/19/10
 

IT IS VERY HARD FOR SOMEONE TO JUST UNDERSTAND ALL THATS GOING ON
TOOK ME A YEAR + TO GET IT DOWN
.....
THE IMF LOAN FOR 3 BILLION THAT WAS BUILT INTO THE BUDGET IS ALL WE NEEDED
......
AND LOOK AT PAST MODELS THE IMF HAS USED , AND LOOK AT WHAT THEY DID
THIS IS ALL PAR FOR THE IMF AND MOVING A CURRENCY UP AND INTO A TRADABLE STAGE
THEY HAVE DONE THIS MANY TIMES SINCE THE 50'S
SO THEY KNOW WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE AND WHAT CAN BE DONE
NOTHING NEW GOING ON HERE
THE NEW CURRENCY WAS PLANNED BEFORE WE INVADED IRAQ
MEANDS WE HAD A PLAN TO PAY OURSELVES BACK FOR THE COST OF THE WAR
BEFORE THE WAR EVEN STARTED

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/12478-breitling-chat-3-19-2010-948am/


B says that it took him a year to get this dinar thing down.  Well if you buy the idea that electronic currency can protect you in the event of a lop, or that it's possible to raise the value of a currency by 100,000%, or that you can reduce the money supply by 99% without a lop, or that you have to have 50% inflation to lop, or that Bush said the war would pay for itself, or that deleting the zeros means removing the larger notes from circulation .... then yeah, I guess B's got it down. 

B says that the IMF has raised the value of currencies several times since the 50s.  I'm still looking for documentation of this, but based on what I've seen so far I don't anticipate anybody producing it.  What I have found is a document from the Congressional Research Service that says:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO) approach the issue of “currency manipulation” differently. The IMF Articles of Agreement prohibit countries from manipulating their currency for the purpose of gaining unfair trade advantage, but the IMF cannot force a country to change its exchange rate policies. The WTO has rules against subsidies, but these are very narrow and specific and do not seem to encompass currency manipulation. Several
options might be considered for addressing this matter in the future, if policymakers deem this a wise course of action. To date, while the issue remains a topic of concern, governments have not
taken action to address the different ways the IMF and WTO address this topic

The IMF can exercise “firm surveillance” but it cannot compel a country to change its exchange rate. Nor can it order commercial foreign exchange dealers to change the prices at which they
trade currencies. It can offer economic advice and discuss how changes in countries’ exchange rates might be in their own interest. It can also provide a forum, such as its new multilateral
consultation mechanism or discussion on the IMF executive board, where other countries can urge a country to change its exchange rate procedures. However, in the end, the authority to make the change resides with the country alone.


http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS22658.pdf



As for the plan to pay ourselves back before the war started, that's pumper BS.  Nothing about that war was planned very well beyond the overthrow of Saddam.  Remember, Donald Rumsfeld estimated that the war would last less than six months.  If there was a plan to cover the cost of the war that was obliterated by the ensuing insurgency that dragged the war on for eight years and escalated the cost to upwards of a trillion dollars.



In March of 2010 Breitling gave a pep talk to some downcast investors.


4-5-10

NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT GUYS
JUST SIT BACK AND RELAX
I THINK WE WERE SUPPOSED TO HAVE IT ALREADY
MID MARCH
lawlesslucy: u mean april?
NO MID MARCH
WAS SUPOSED TO BE DONE WITH ALL THIS
JUST DELAYS
THEY CANT AVOID IT FOREVER
ALL THE CHIPS ARE ON OUR SIDE
JUST POLITICS AND LEGAS ISSUES
mrdinar: b – is every day a possibility from now on?
NO WHEN THE SEAT THE PM IS WHEN THEY WILL HAVE HAND ON THE SWITCH
WHEN YOU SEE WHO IS SEATED
lawlesslucy: when do u thikn they wills eat the PM?
MAYBE THIS WEEK SOMETIME
BUT BE HONEST I DONT KNOW
I HAVE ASKED ABOUT LEGAL DEADLINES AND I GOT LIKE 15 ANSWERS
AND ALL WERE PLAUSIBLE
SO WE WAIT ………………………
BUT
WE ARE SO GOLDEN
JUST RELAX AND HAVE FUN OK
YOU DONT RELIZE THIS BUT YOUR PRAYERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ANSWERED

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/14580-breitling-chat-4510/


Maybe God's answer was "NO."
 
A month later:

4/7/10 

Breitling says to : THE ARTICLES THAT ARE COING OUT ABOUT IT MAY TAKE 5 MONTHS TO FIX THIS ELECTION
Breitling says to : YOU HAVE TO READ INTO THEM CORRECTLY
Breitling says to : YOU GUYS EVER WATCH THE NEWS HERE IN THE STATES
Breitling says to : AND YOU HAVE A BUNCH OF PEOPLE DROPPING OPINIONS LIKE NOTHING
Breitling says to : THATS WHAT IS HAPPENING
Breitling says to : THOSE ARTICLES ARE NOT OFFICIAL
Breitling says to : THE ARE WAY OVER STATED
Breitling says to : FOR POLITICAL REASONS
Breitling says to : IT AINT GOING TO TAKE 5 MONTHS FOR THEM TO HASH OUT A GOV
Breitling says to : THE LAWS ARE CLEAR AS A BELL
Breitling says to : AND THE UN AND THE USA WILL FORCE THEM TO FOLLOW TO THE END
Breitling says to : SO DONT WORRY ABOUT THAT OK
Breitling says to : THE BOMBINGS
Breitling says to : WE HAVE MORE MURDERS HERE IN THE STATES THEN THEY HAVE BOMBINGS
Breitling says to : SO EVEN AFTER IT RV;S THEY ARE GOING TO BOMB SOMEONE
Breitling says to : THAT WILL NOT FORCE ARE GET US ANY CLOSER TO RV
Breitling says to : IT IS THE SAME AS IT WAS LAST YEAR WHEN IRAQ ASKED THE IMF IF THEY WILL HELP THEM GET THE CURRENCY BACK ONTO THE OPEN MARKET
Breitling says to : IMF GAVE THEM STIPS
Breitling says to : AND THEY HAVE BEEN WORKING ON THAT EVER SINCE
Breitling says to : THEY HAVE DONE EVERY ONE
Breitling says to : EXCEPT ONE
Breitling says to : ANY ONE?
Breitling says to : KNOW WHAT THAT IS
dinarfrank says to : RV
Breitling says to : CORRECT
Breitling says to : SO WE ARE NOT FAR AWAY FROM ANYTHING
Breitling says to : IT IS CLOSE
Breitling says to : AND WE ARE ON TOP OF IT
Breitling says to : ALL THE REST IS SIDE SHOW ANTICS
Breitling says to : MEANS ZERO

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/14858-breitling-chat-4-7-10-early-morning/


It was in fact another 6 months before the election was resolved and another 8 months before Maliki's government was approved by parliament.  As for his comments about murders in the US, the only country with a higher murder rate than Iraq is El Salvador.  As last week's bombings demonstrate Iraq is still a very dangerous place, and that discourages investment as anybody who understands economics and currency valuation realizes.




4/25/10

GUYS OUT OF ASIA ARE GOING CRAZY
THEY CANT EVEN GET VIETNAM CURRENCY OUT OF HONG KONG
HEAVY HITTERS ARE BUYING IT ALL UP
HEY I DID A INTERVIEW ON THE VEITNAM CURRENCY WITH DD
DID YOU GUYS SEE THAT
IT IS THE INTERVIEW I GAVE DD ABOUT THE DONG
I AM REALY THE ONLY ONE WITH INTEL ON IT
DONT KNOW HOW ALL OF A SUDDEN EVERY ONE NOW KNOWS PEOPLE FROM NAM
BETWEEN 1 -6
PROB ANYDAY
YOU GUYS HAVE TO UNDERSTAND
WE SHOULD BE IN POST RV MODE
IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN RIGHT AFTER THE ELECTIONS
BUT HERE WE ARE

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/16964-breitling-chat-ds-4252010-1234-pm/


Yep, and here we still are.  As I pointed out in The Breitling Catalog the dong has steadily depreciated since then.  No RV.  I'm not sure but I believe this is where the hype about the dong originated, and since then it seems all the gurus have an opinion about it.  In my opinion it all started because some supplier was unable to deliver dong to his dealer client and somebody read RV into that.  You know how these things go.  Today currency dealers seem to have no shortage of VND. 




5/24/2010
 

I WAS TELLING THE DV FOLKS LAST NIGHT ABOUT SOME NEWS I GOT
what’s the news, B?
ANY WAYS SMALL REPORT
I HAVE HAD BUSINESS CONTACtS OUT OF DUBIA FOR 2 YEARS NOW
THIS GROUP I WAS WITH FRIDAY IS A DIF GROUP OUT OF DUBAI
THEY ARE FRENCH AND LIVE IN DUBAI
THEY WORK FOR YAMAHA
I INTODUCED THE DINAR TO THEM
ABOUT 4 MONTHS AGO
ANYWHO, THEY WHERE IN HAVASU FOR JETSKI TESTING AND THEY GAVE ME A REOPRT OUT OF DUBAI WHAT IS BEING SAID
AND ALL THE BANKING AND INVESTMENT CONTACTS IN DUBAI THAT THEY HAVE, ARE ALL KNOW THE DINAR
AND THEY ALL KNOW IT IS GOING UP SOON
THEY DON”T KNOW THE RATE OR ANYTHING
BUT THEY KNOW
AND IT IS A BIG DEAL
THEY BOUGHT MORE TODAY
THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG AS THEY SAY
AND THE BANKING COMMUNITY IN DUBAI IS ON IT
ANYWAYS
THAT’S ALL IT WAS
let’s hope maliki doesn’t kill the cat
I GOT PUMPED AFTER THEY TOLD ME THIS
NO HE WON’T
THE IMF HAS A RED LINE THEY WON’T GO BELOW
THEY WILL RV JUST TO GET THE FUNDS THEY GAVE BACK
SO AT A MINIMUM WE HAVE THAT
BUT HE CAN NOT MESS IT UP
ONLY DELAY IT

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/19532-breitling-chat-24-may-2010/


So much for his contacts in Do Buy.  And what's up with that IMF thing?  Don't they want their money back?




5/20/10
 

THE RV IS ON THE TABLE AND ATTACHED TO THE ELECTIONS AND THE CHPATER 7
ONE WILL PROB BE ELIMINATED NEXT WEEK
DONT WORRY IT WILL WORK OUT
WE DONT EVEN NEED THEM TO RV
IF WE CAN JUST GET THE DINAR ON THE OPEN EXCHANGE IT WILL GO UP TO A BUCK OVER NIGHT

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/19201-breitling-chat-dinar-speculator-52010-700pm/


A 100,000% increase overnight on the open exchange?  For those of you who don't know, a 2% increase in one day on forex is HUGE.




6/19/10
 

I JUST HAD A TALK WITH SOME OF MY GOOD FREINDS ABOUT THE DINAR
DONT WORRY YOU GUYS ARE ALL ALREADY RICH
THEY ARE HIDING THE TRUE VALUE
JUST THINK OF IT ON THOSE TERMS
ALSO WHY THEY HAVE NOT REALEASED THE TRUE VALUE YET
THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE THE MANDATE TO SERVE THROUGH 2014
AND THAT IS WHY THE GAME IS SO BIG AND THE DELAYS MEAN SO MUCH
BUT THEY ARE PROGRESSING DONT THINK THEY ARE NOT
THE OUTCOME WILL BE PROB A THRRE WAY SPLIT AMONG THE KURDS , AND THE TWO TOP LARGEST BLOCS
THIS WAY THE POWER EVEN OUT
ALLOT OF HORSE TRADING GOING ON
THIS MAY SEEM CRAZY BUT THIS IS GOOD
NOT ONE PARTY IS GOING TO HAVE POWER OVER IRAQ
IT IS GOING TO BE A SPLIT
AND THAT IS GOING TO MAKE IT A BIT MORE STABLE
SO THE PROCESS TO GET THIS DONE IS A LIITER HARDER AND TUFFER
BUT DONT WORRY YOU WILL BE ABLE TO CASH IN WITH THE TRUE VLAUE SOON
SORRY I HAVE BEEN A NO SHOW , BUT I STARTED A NEW COMPANY
WHY DO WE KNOW THE DINAR VALUE IS HIGER THEN IT SHOULD BE ?
THEY GOT RID OF 70%
OF ?
THIS IS THE SAME PROB NAM HAS
THEY HAVE WAY TOO MUCH CASH
CHINA IS CALLING IT A UNFAIR PLAY BY NAM
AND WILL FORCE THEM TO TAKE AMOUNTS OF THE CURRENCY OFF THE MARKET
THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR
CHINA NEEDS THE DINAR TO RV MORE THEN THE REST OF US
ALSO WHY THEY HAVE NOT REALEASED THE TRUE VALUE YET
WHY DO WE KNOW THE DINAR VALUE IS HIGER THEN IT SHOULD BE ?
DONT WORRY IT WILL RV
THEY ARE STILL IN IT…..AND PROB WILL GET TO CHPATER 8 AFTER
SHJ THEY HAVE A TON OF DINAR
YOU KNOW WHY ?
THEY KNOW WHAT WE KNOW
IT IS WORTH A TON OF MONEY
THAT SHOULD MAKE YOU HAPPY JUST KNOWING THAT
REMEMBER TODAYS RATE IS NOT A REAL RATE
YOU GUYS DONT KNOW HOW BLESSED YOUR ARE REALLY….THE WORLD IS GOING TO BE PUMPED UP BY THIS AND YOUR ONE OF THE VERY FEW SITTING ON THE CURRENCY…IT IS AMAZING

http://iraqidinarnews.net/blog/2010/06/19/breitling-chat-dinar-speculator-61910-1230pm/


It truly is amazing.  It's amazing to me that anybody listens to this guy.  Hiding the true value?  The true value is out there in plain view.  $.00086 is the value when you have about $60 billion in foreign currency reserves backing about 70 trillion in currency.  If they got rid of 70% then why do their money supply figures keep going up?  This was over two years ago, folks.  Are we to  believe that the Iraqis have been surviving on less than 30% of the money they had over two years ago?  And if they're using USD instead how does their foreign currency reserves total keep climbing?   




7/19/10 @ 10:30pm

hansonent says to (23:15:25):
Breitling, What is your current Thoughts on the V. Dong?
Breitling says to (23:15:44):
STILL WATCHING TO SEE IF THEY ARE GETTING RID OF CURRENCY OFF THE MARKET
JUST LIKE IRAQ DID
WHAT IS FUNNY ABOUT THAT
PEOPLE BOUGHT DONG THINKING THEY WOULD MAKE A QUICK BUCK
THATS NOT HOW THIS GAME WORKS
YOU STOCK UP ON CHEAP CURRENCY WHEN EVER YOU CAN
UNTILL IT POPS
THATS HOW YOU PLAY THIS GAME
WHEN I BOUGHT DINAR THATS HOW I APPROACHED THIS
BUY LOW SELL HIGH
BUT WE HAVE THE DINAR GOING
AND WE ARE AT THE END
WITH THE REDUCTION OF IRAQ CURRENCY OUTSIDE AND INSIDE
THE RATES CAN GO WAY HIGER THEN I EVER THOUGHT
I JUST NEVER DREAMED THEY WOULD TAKE THAT MUCH OFF THE MARKET
THIS PROVES THE CBI NUMBERS IS A COMPLETE LIE
WHICH MOST SUSPECTED ANYWAYS
FROM WHAT I HAVE GOTTEN THE POST IN THE GOV HAVE BEEN AGRRED ON ALREADY
AND THEY JUST HAVE TO GET THE LAW TO COMPLY WITH IT
THE RATE OF THE DINAR IS BASED ON THE BAD NUMBERS ON THE CBI SITE RIGHT ?
SO IF WE KNOW THEY HAVE REDUSED 70+ %
AND THEY HAVE NOT POST THAT REFLECTION ON THE SITE YET
THEN THE RATES THE CBI HAS ARE VOID, OR WRONG
THE DINAR RATES ARE ALLOT HIGHER THEN WHAT IS BEING POST
AND WHEN IT RV’S THEY WILL ADD TO THAT ANYWAYS
SO YOUR ALREADY GOLDEN
WHEN THEY ARE IN CHAPTER 8 STATUS, WE WILL LEARN MORE ABOUT THAT STUFF
.....
STAY GOLDEN 

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/24984-breitling-chat-dinar-speculator-71910-1030pm/


Golden showers from Mr. B.  Interesting how here he says people bought dong thinking they would make a quick buck.  "That's not how this game works."  Yet one of the reasons they thought that no doubt was people like B saying "heavy hitters are buying it all up", "probably any day now",  "1-6 cents".  Three months later with no RV Breitling is saying they shouldn't have expected to turn a quick profit.  What a douche!  "Buy low, sell high."  Well how about buy low and watch it go lower?  And this 70% reduction of the money supply as we all now know was a total misinterpretation of an article about moving 70% of the excess liquidity into the economy. 


Like I said, Breitling is either completely misinformed and confused or he's a scammer.  Based on his recent pumping of the penny stock LDHL I'm leaning toward the latter.  The world of currency investments, MLM, and penny stocks is full of hucksters preying on the uninitiated and gullible.  I'm still waiting for B to pick a stock for us on NASDAQ or the NYSE that will go up substantially because of strong fundamentals as opposed to an OTC stock that can be manipulated through hype.