Saturday, December 8, 2012

Seasons Greetings!

Yes, I'm still alive.  Just devoting my time and energy to other things these days.  Despite my dinar detox program I must admit that I do still follow some of the douchebaggery in the dinar forums and conference calls, but not with the interest I once had.  But, this being the season for giving I figured I'd take a few minutes to offer my comments on some of what I've heard and observed. 

First, it seems that since Brad Huebner and Rudy Coenen were indicted for fraud that some of the pumpers have suddenly become quite shy, while others have decided to drop the notion of a big RV.  The popular theory now is that the dinar will be allowed to float.  By speculating on a float the gurus can sidestep the legal quagmire of misrepresenting the CBI's currency reform plan.  That was part of the case for fraud presented against Brad and Rudy.  Instead the gurus can now just say that Iraq won't follow through with the CBI's plan but will float the IQD until it returns to its former valuation. 

Before I continue let me review what was stated in the indictment.  Under the "General Allegations" section we find the following:

7. The term "revaluation" (casually shortened to "RV" in dinar-sales parlance), refers to the contention that at some point in the near future, the dinar will rise against the U.S. dollar, a circumstance which will enrich earlier purchasers of the dinar.  BRADFORD HUEBNER, CHARLES EMMENECKER, RUDOLPH COENEN and MICHAEL TEADT repeatedly advanced claims to potential investors over the telephone, through web pages, and through a weekly internet conference call that even relatively small investors in the dinar would, following the "revaluation" or "RV", become wealthy overnight.

8. A "redenomination" of the dinar refers to an actual proposal by the Central Bank of Iraq, announced as recently as June 21, 2011, to re-print the currency to remove three zeroes from the physical dinar banknotes as a matter of convenience.  A redenomination of the Iraqi currency would not lead to a revaluation by the same amount, and may have no effect on the currency's value.  Under a redenomination, a new currency replaces an old currency, but the value remains the same.  Under the proposed redenomination, the Iraqi government would issue a new dinar note that will be equivalent to 1000 current dinars.  The exchange rate would be 1.17 new dinars to the dollar, equivalent to 1,170 current dinars to the dollar.

Some dinarians have read this and still cling to the big RV fantasy, dismissing the wording in the indictment as "smoke".  Folks, you don't put a case like this together without making sure it's solid.  If there was any chance that Iraq would revalue their currency to any substantial amount the prosecution wouldn't have included any reference to it in the case for fraud IMO.  They would just prosecute them on the hedge fund and money laundering stuff.   

So we can see here that in the case for fraud the indictment lists the misrepresentation of the CBI's proposal to remove three zeroes (a redenomination or "lop") as an RV that will make investors wealthy overnight.  Some of these gurus took notice and quit saying that we're gonna be rich when they remove the zeros.  Thus the float theory.

The problems with the float theory are numerous.  First of all, countries as unstable as Iraq don't float their currencies as a rule.  It would hurt their economy to subject the dinar to the volatility that a free float would present.   

Secondly, nothing in Iraq's history suggests that the official value of the dinar is being artificially held down.  To the contrary, it appears that it is being propped up considering the difficulty Iraq has had in keeping the market price in the same ballpark as the official value as it fluctuates from 1200-1300 IQD to the dollar.  The often touted story from 2004 about the CBI buying back dollars with dinar to keep the dinar from appreciating too much was a reference to the market price, not the official value.  Remember, the IQD is pegged to the USD so the official value can't appreciate apart from a decree from the CBI.  It has been eight years since they had any concerns about the market price going too high in Iraq.  The problem now is the value going too low. 

Additionally, a float does nothing to reduce the money supply, which is the reason the dinar's value is so low in the first place.  Until the money supply is significantly reduced a float would likely result in depreciation rather than appreciation. 

It is my belief that when the CBI makes a reference to floating the value of the dinar they're either talking about a managed float of a few % with the official value or they're talking about raising the market price via the auctions by manipulating the money supply within Iraq.  They have no intention of putting the dinar on a free float in the international market IMO. 

Another issue that keeps coming up is the Feasibility Study from the Ministry of Planning in Iraq.  Supposedly this study shows us the real value of the dinar at $3.20 but they can't come right out of the gate that high.  They need to RV to something like $1.13 and then slowly float up to $3.20. 

I would like to put this Feasibility Study/Justification Report nonsense to rest once and for all.  It has nothing to do with the IQD.  It refers to the official value of the dinar as $3.20 but the dinar's official value has been less than a tenth of a penny since 1995 according to the CBI website, so it has to be at least 17 years old.  I think you'll find that the study was published in 1984 and revised in 1990 regarding the old Saddam dinar (thanks to Brian for the info on this). 

From the website for the Ministry of Planning we read:

In turn, The Guidance For Technical And Economic Feasibility Studies And Post-Project Assessment Of Development Project (Regulations No. 1 for the Year of 1984 and it’s amendment for the year of 1990) has specifies a series of steps to be undertaken, which lead to the completion of a Capital Budget.

Then if you click on the 7th link that says "The Exchange Rate of Foreign Currency in Economic Feasibility Studies" you will find the study in question.

The real value of the IQD is not $3.20.  It's not $1.13.  It's not $.86.  It's a tenth of a penny.  According to the CBI website's financials there's 72 trillion dinar in the M2 money supply.  This study was conducted when Iraq's money supply was measured in the billions, not trillions, so it makes no sense to base any analysis or investment decisions on anything in this report. 

Then there's the dong.  When all else fails pump the dong.  Think about it, folks.  Vietnam has had over 35 years to raise the value of their currency.  And it keeps going down.  Why?  Because they want it to, that's why. 

"The government has pushed to lower the value of the Dong in the hopes of pushing up exports and fostering export oriented economic growth (also referred to as export led development)."

Vietnam's economy is growing, and countries with emerging economies like this prefer a depreciating currency to an appreciating one so that they can pay their debt with cheaper currency and increase their exports.

Prior to the 1970s most mortgages in the US were fixed-rate mortgages.  In other words, the homeowner paid the same interest rate for the duration of the mortgage.  When double-digit inflation hit in the late 70s many homeowners were paying 7 or 8% interest on homes that were appreciating at nearly 15% a year and interest rates were higher than that.  Lenders were losing money and the homeowners were loving every minute of it because they were paying off the mortgage with cheaper dollars on a home that was rapidly increasing in value.  Lenders were actually bribing them to refinance.  This is what led to the emergence of ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages).  Lenders wanted to cover their arses in the event of an unforseen recurrence of high inflation.   

In the same way countries like Vietnam can pay their bills with cheaper currency by allowing it to depreciate somewhat, so long as it doesn't get out of control.  The only reason Vietnam would have for raising the value of their currency is if inflation was a concern like it was in Iraq from 2006-2009 when they were raising the value of the IQD by about 9% a year.  Believe it or not neither Iraq, Vietnam, nor any other country is going to raise the value of their currency just to put wads of cash in the pockets of speculators.  That's a shocker, huh?

There's a few other topics being bandied about in the dinar world like Ban Ki-moon and Chapter 7 (irrelevant), and the Kurds (ditto).  Breitling is telling people that Germany's currency returned to its pre-war value in eight years so Iraq is dragging their feet a bit. In fact the German deutschemark didn't "return" to anything. It replaced the pre-war currency the German reichsmark in 1948 so any notion that a currency can return to its pre-war value without a redenomination isn't supported by the history of the deutschemark. FootForward is telling people that hedge funds drove the Kuwaiti dinar up to $9 after the Kuwaiti "RV" in 1991 which is about as accurate as his World Series prediction.  BGG is still talking about Maliki, Shabibi, Barzani, Talabani, Allawi and everybody else in the GOI and CBI who might have something to do with Iraq's currency reform, as if any of this is going to lead to substantial profits for any of BGG's listeners.  And the dinar?  Well, last I checked it hasn't done diddly.  That's a shocker too, huh?  I actually thought that removing Shabibi might bring about some increase in the dinar's value but it looks like his replacement is content to leave it be.

This is the time of year when gurus traditionally start setting dates and telling everybody it's going to be a very Merry Christmas and a very prosperous New Year (read BIG RV!!!).  And of course the holidays come and go and ..... nada!  Just a reminder of what to expect.

Last year I wrote a post called A Letter to Santa in which I asked to see some pumpers go to jail.  Well Santa delivered four indictments in September so he's halfway there.  Good job, Santa!  Now I am making the same request this Christmas.  How about a few more indictments in 2013?  You can do it, you jolly old elf!  I know you can!   

Merry Christmas everybody!


  1. Thanks for the update Sam... I've been waiting for your outlook on the newest batch of horse apples from the forever growing list of jalagoons.

    1. Thanks Harold. This is mostly stuff we've heard before, but for the sake of the newbies I think it's important to address it.

  2. Welcome back Sam! We've missed you. I suppose it's a good thing that we haven't seen as much of you.

    1. Thanks. Yeah, I think reality is setting in with most. Whatever role this blog played in that I'm glad to have been able to help.

  3. I told the folks over at CC not to look for any change in value. Not now or next year. The dinar is a pipe dream.

  4. Good analysis Sam. It truly is mind-boggling the number of people who are intelligent enough to understand the Federal Reserve printing more money = fall in value of the $, yet brainwashed enough to think Iraq Central Bank printing +10x more money than even the Federal Reserve = a "magic rise" in value...

    "It refers to the official value of the dinar as $3.20 but the dinar's official value has been less than a tenth of a penny since 1995 according to the CBI website, so it has to be at least 17 years old."

    Indeed. The "feasibility" study is an archived document from the late 80's / early 90's before even the first Gulf War under Bush Senior. If you read further into its other development sub-sections it talks about rolling out state of the art technologies like "Telex" and "Fax machines". LOL. ;-) It's as utterly absurd as declaring Carter / Nixon era plans for the 80's were written last week (even when 1980's dates are still on them!...)

    "Then there's the dong. When all else fails pump the dong."


    1. Vietnam had chronic inflation of up to 700% as part of a mis-managed currency reform. Triple digit inflation that lasted years. That's why its value plummeted in the first place... The Dong has been under 10000:1 vs $ long before Iraq was invaded. There is no "hidden wealth" to "revalue" to and never has been...

    2. The Dong's weakness was caused by natural inflation proof of which is same fall in value against gold as the USD. Here's a graph clearly demonstrating that:-

    3. There's an eye-watering ONE *QUADRILLION* Dong in circulation (over 12.5m Dong printed for every man, woman, child & baby living in Vietnam). Of course it isn't going to have the same value as Western currencies (who typically only have $xx,000 per person in circulation). You simply can't "RV" away (by moving an external peg) internal devaluation caused by internal inflation as it takes no money out of circulation which is root of the problem in the first place. That's why redenominations were invented in the first place...

    4. Vietnamese are queueing up to swap Dong *for* other less inflated currencies (USD, Euros, Chinese Yuan, etc).

    5. As you say, Vietnamese central bank chief Nguyen Van Binh said he doesn't want the Dong to appreciate in real value vs the $ or Vietnam will lose export industry competitiveness vs China. This is common sense that the Dinaraholics get completely back to front : Export-oriented countries benefit from WEAKER currencies and IMPORT-oriented countries benefit from stronger currencies.

    If a net exporter (like Vietnam) made their currency 1,000x stronger they would instantly destroy their own export-industry competitiveness vs China, Malaysia, Taiwan, etc... It would be national suicide. Why do people think that China undervalues the Yuan vs the $ via a peg and why raising the value of the Yuan would cost them exports? This is both basic economics not to mention plain old fashioned common sense...

  5. Well that blows why isnt the government shutting this crap down? Dd for example jus bc ur not the drug dealer himself or the person buying the drugs u still get in trouble for being the runner in between that's wat he is in my opinion

  6. Do we have any real comments about "prosperity packages"?

    1. Tipper, I wondered myself why the government wasn't shutting the dinar sites down or arresting anybody. Well we finally saw some arrests in September and we now know that the case was ongoing for nearly a year and a half prior to the arrests. They're working on it, they're just moving very slowly and methodically I guess. As for the prosperity packages, Marcus Curtis did some research on Nesara, CMKX, and prosperity packages (a.k.a. global settlements) at and

    2. Ok HERE ARE THE FINAL QUESTIONS.......wat should we as dinarians know the true meaning behind the dinar? Do we need to use it as a stocking stuffer? Toilet paper for when we go huntin? Or Is there still a possibility that sumthin will happen?

    3. Tipper, don't believe this "prosperity package" BS. Dinar pushers know it defies all common sense to suggest that a currency that has been as massively printed as the dinar is going to revalue. So, to try to justify it, they push this notion that there are trillions of dollars from a long held settlement at the Bank of International Settlements that are going to be released. That is going to facilitate the RV. In addition, it's going to result in a worldwide reset of all currency exchange rates. It's a far-fetched scheme that originates in the minds of the conspiracy theoriests. It's entirely concocted by the irrational. Dinar pumpers have latched onto it to push their sales and subscriptions. But it's a laughable notion. Don't believe it for a second.

    4. So there is nothing to look forward to? I mean is there a chance that something happen for us? Do u have dinar? If so what are you going to do with it? Please give me sum good ideas

    5. There's plenty to look forward to. Just nothing related to the dinar. It's not going to re-value. It may redenominate at some point, but that's no big deal. No one will make any money on a redenomination. But, on the bright side, there are plenty of good things happening. The price of energy continues to fall as our domestic oil and gas production skyrockets (and people said supply doesn't matter). Drought conditions in the southeast have been nearly eliminated. The walleye fishing has never been better in Northern Ontario. There are lots are good things going on. You just have to know where to look.

  7. Sorry, couldn't help it.

    12-12-2012 Intel Guru Frank26 Well Fargo has told me they couldn't talk to me until Iraq is lifted from Chapter 7. They are not buying or selling dinar until the restrictions are lifted. A source said Wells Fargo is training people to exchange the Iraqi dinar. They were/are being trained from November 28th to the 12th of December. They were told "we will put you to work right away, we will have our holiday & then you will come right back at January 1st to get to work".

  8. I can't wait until they are all arrested (they will be trust me..wink). If you aren't converting your money into something that works for you need to get an MRI (no free ride folks). Just saying, an investment means you make money even if it's small bumps. If you buy this paper you will lose and anyone telling you different will be doing time, or be using their blessing to get them out of their troubles. There will be no RV, there will be no blessing, and there will be no ROI. Really who starts any investment losing 40% off the top? Seriously folks! O wait, go check Ebay you can get 100k for 76. Ha! Go RV!

  9. Really Frank? Hmm..from jordan

  10. Comments please.........

    1. Tipper, the "World Global Settlement Fund" originated from the now defunct (Chris Story who died of cancer years ago). He was obsessed with a con-man named "Leo Wanta" who he falsely believed had trillions of "stolen money" and was "just waiting to give it 'back' to the people". Since then anyone & everyone has pulled random numbers of their butts & declared that "it's waiting for them in a settlement fund" with no logical explanation or legal connection whatsoever. From deluded CMKX penny-stock fraud victims still blaming everyone else for their own stupidity & chronic lack of discernment for falling for a bunch of conmen who claimed they had "2000x more diamonds than DeBeer's" without ever mining or producing a thing and having <$500 in their bank account) to Chris Story's bunch who've been making things up silly things all along like Leo Wanta being a "Somali Ambassador to Canada".

      "From the Capital Times on 21 November 1995, in an article titled, rather tellingly, "DELUSIONAL' CON MAN GETS EIGHT-YEAR TERM":

      Leo Wanta, the Appleton man who claimed to be an international businessman with connections to government agencies but was portrayed by prosecutors as an international con artist, will be spending the next few years in Wisconsin prisons. Wanta, 55, who was convicted in May of tax evasion, was given an eight-year prison term Monday by Dane County Circuit Judge Michael Torphy, who also ordered a six-year probation to follow.

      For his part, Wanta - described as delusional by his own attorney - continued his scam to the end. Haag said Wanta was arrested in Switzerland in 1993 for attempting an $81 million bank fraud. Wanta claimed diplomatic immunity in that case, contending he was the Somalian ambassador to Canada. The Swiss deported him to the United States, where he was arrested in New York on the Wisconsin tax fraud charge".

      Much on the alcuinbramerton site is just unthinkingly copied fake "intel" from the "Casper Reports" over at Fourwinds & the defunct (inc Cottrell & his "White Hat Reports"), all of which has long been debunked. Steer clear of anyone who quotes Benjamin Fulford too. He's the nutjob who declared that the Queen of England, etc, "has 3 months to resign or else I Ben Fulford, will personally order 4m Chinese Ninja's under my command to take her out". That was over 2 years ago - by a megalomaniac failed journalist who thinks he's become a Super-Ninja-White-Dragon-Clan-Chief after moving from Canada to Japan... Since then he's been trying to combine 1,001 different conspiracies into the "One True Conspiracy" and sounding increasingly deranged & unhinged. Every prediction he's made has failed, and he's a laughing stock to all but his devout followers.

      Serious advice : Half the "truther" movement are just as much bald-faced liars as the people they claim to "stand against". We all want to live in a better world, and hopefully there will indeed be serious positive global economic & political reformation on the horizon, but the amount of disinfo by attention seekers trying to become "patriot celebrities" latching onto the alternative media movement with made up bunk & dishonest "positive conspiracies" is equally absurd. Don't just believe in the first thing you read simply because it sounds nice / you want it to be true. We've all made that mistake in the past (including myself I'll readily admit).

      Hope this helps. Merry Christmas all!

    2. No comments needed. It's all made up.

    3. Brian that was a fascinating read. Interesting that this Wanta guy is from Appleton. You know who else is from Appleton? Dr. Johnson a.k.a. Dr. J, the forex trader who became a semi-guru for the dinar. You know where Appleton is? Just a few miles down the road from Greenville, Wisconsin. Guess who lives in Greeneville? hmmmm ....

  11. Like most of you, I've taken a break from dinar land for a while, but have any of you noticed this on dinar guru's website? It may have been available for a while, but I just now noticed it. How stupid do you have to be to fall for something like this?

  12. I'm getting a feeling that maybe ol Adam "snake oil" Montana might be getting a little desperate. This seems like a pretty obvious shill post. I mean claiming that they searched the internet and did not find posts claiming that the RV is a hoax? What were they reading their screen through (dinar colored) welders goggles? I created an account to post a polite reply that there are such posts on this very site, and that account was immediately terminated.

    1. Without a doubt, the primary objective of the web site owners and moderators is to scrub the site meticulously for resistance. Their business, after all, is dependent upon a universal belief that the dinar is going to RV. Any suggestion otherwise is promptly removed. That's certainly one reason why a user may not find much negative information. I've been scrubbed numerous times from dinarvets and PTR. And, quite frankly, a couple of my posts weren't hostile or condescending but did indicate that I had sold all my dinar. That seems to strike a peculiar nerve.

  13. I felt a need to debunk the latest garbage (from TLAR) making the rounds at various dinar sites but it was a bit long for a post here, so I posted it here which is my blogger site (that I rarely use).


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