Sunday, January 29, 2012

No Douchie

I was very busy this week interacting with people over a couple of my posts.  "The Usual Suspects" really got some people up in arms.  One guru sent me about a dozen emails in response to how I classified them.  My next post "An Interview with John Jagerson" threw another guru into maniac mode and he devoted the better part of two days' material to rebutting it.  There were more comments on that post by far than any other post in the history of this blog.  I'm hoping to bring John back to respond to some of the things these guys said in their rebuttals.

Because I was so preoccupied with my blog I wasn't really on top of what all was going on in other forums with pumpers and intel and all that crap.  Over the weekend I've looked through the guru posts and to be honest there's nothing new there.  Same ol' same ol'.  These guys are starting to just phone it in.  So I'm going to do something different this week.  I'm going to pass on awarding a Douchie.  No, I'm not getting soft.  I'm just not going to give somebody a Douchie just to say I did it.  If nothing jumps out at me then I'm going to be honest with you and say so.  Maybe next week somebody will come up with something a bit more clever and Doucheworthy. 

All kidding aside folks, this is serious business (no pun intended) we're talking about here.  People are being misled about what's going on with the dinar, and millions of dollars are being "invested" based on out and out fraud, deception, and ignorance.  I try to inject a little humor into the discussion, and that's what the Douchies are all about.  But there's nothing humorous about people being sold an investment with unrealistic expectations created by con artists and unqualified investment advisers, some of whom don't even seem to understand the meaning of redenomination and revaluation.  That's why I wanted to interview John Jagerson. For the first time many dinar investors have been provided the opinions of a currency and investment professional.  A man whose very livelihood depends on knowing what he's talking about.  A man who has offered to debate this topic and can't seem to get any takers.

I think it's okay to listen to people who don't make a living in the investment world, and who post under an anonymous name on dinar forums.  But for God's sake don't summarily dismiss the views of an experienced and qualified adviser who uses his real name and provides his credentials as John has, simply because he's not telling you what you want to hear.  In the future I intend to conduct more interviews from people with different opinions and perspectives.  All of them will be people who pass my credibility requirements.  I'll offer my own opinions from time to time, but I seriously doubt that I'll ever have anybody more qualified than John is sharing their views.  If you don't accept what he's saying now at least remember where you read this.  You might be coming back in a few months to reconsider.

Friday, January 27, 2012

A Fake Interview?

Well I just listened to Breitling's response to the interview with John Jagerson.  He claimed that John was interviewing himself.  Not even close.  I never even met John online until a couple of weeks ago.  John is on record as having never bought dinar.  I am on record as having bought before I did adequate due diligence.  The fact is John doesn't need to interview himself.  He has posted a ton of stuff on his own website, a lot more than was included in this interview.  I just thought it might be nice to include an interview from somebody with his background along with the other interviews I've already conducted.  Many of my readers don't venture outside of the dinar forums very often so maybe they've never heard his perspective.

Another claim that Breitling made is that I am engaging in personal attacks.  Not true.  Everything I have posted on B in the past has been relevant to this investment.  I have never called him ugly, fat, stupid, or anything like that.  I did call him a douchebag but that's kind of the theme of this blog, ya know?  It's nothing personal.  It just means your conduct as a dinar "authority" needs improvement.  When I reveal a potential conflict of interest, or disprove statements made, or point out cases of flawed intel those aren't personal attacks.  That's just me being a watchdog for the dinar world. 

Something else that I find interesting is that B claims he got a ton of email from people ranting about that interview.  So far I have only received email from one person who took issue with what John said.  Odd, huh?
One final point.  John Jagerson offered to debate Breitling or any other guru on any number of topics.  Breitling apparently is declining this offer based on his claim that John (supposedly me) has been attacking people personally.  Now that I have set the record straight on this I wonder if B will reconsider?

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

An Interview with John Jagerson

Since I first started visiting dinar forums one thing that has bothered me is the fact that most of the "experts" on this investment have a background in something other than finance, economics, or investment analysis.  Many of them come from the world of MLM, selling products like Xango or Fuel Legacy.  Some are former military personnel.  Some work as contractors or in the oil business.  One guy was a corporate recruiter.  Another worked in the restaurant business.  One guy was even a snake breeder.  Not exactly what I was looking for.

Well I found one man who has discussed the dinar at length who is indeed qualified to discuss this investment, but some of you probably won't like what he has to say.  His name is John Jagerson.  He runs a website called Learning Markets, and his videos were included on one of the first posts I did back in September.  Recently he commented on my blog which frankly surprised me.  I replied and invited him to participate in a brief discussion for my readers which he agreed to do.  I may not agree with John on everything, but I respect his credentials and his opinions and welcome his thoughts on investing in the IQD.

Sam:  I appreciate your taking the time to answer a few questions for us.  Could you give us a brief bio with your credentials?

John: I graduated from Utah Valley University with a degree in Business Administration where I emphasized in accounting and finance. I later completed the PLD at Harvard that has a strong international business focus. I have spent most of my career as an entrepreneur, which led me in two directions that eventually converged to form my current occupation. The first direction was to become involved in private equity (AKA venture and angel capital), which gave me experience in investment and risk analysis. The second was my experience (early in my career) importing products and equipment from Asia. While I was doing that I was frequently hedging currency risk and the currency-trading bug bit me. I haven’t turned back.

In 2003 I left entrepreneurship briefly and went to work with Investools, which was a roll-up of several online companies focused on investor education and information. Investools later acquired the options-brokerage thinkorswim (Barrons’ #1 rated), which was later acquired by TDAmeritrade after I left the company. I was a Vice President at the firm and was responsible for content, training, and client education. Working at thinkorswim Group I had the opportunity to get to know how individual investors work. This gave me a lot of insight into the biggest mistakes they make as well as the commonalities among successful traders.

For a brief period I was also a principle for a small CTA (NFA registered) focusing on forex trading, but left the industry when regulation changes in the U.S. pushed so many domestic traders overseas. I currently still write two option advisory letters that have done well. I ended 2011 profitably, which is “pretty good” in my book even if I didn’t blow the doors off.

I have written three books published by McGraw Hill. Two of these were about the international currency market or “Forex”. The third is on gold investing. I am currently writing a book on the coming (in my opinion) bond market collapse. I regularly write and record videos for online publications including, Scottrade, International Stock Exchange (ISE),, Mint (an Intuit company) and Alpari among others.  

OK that was not brief and I apologize for that but I thought it would be helpful to make sure that people wondering about the dinar know that I am not just speculating. I have experience in this business and I can show them how to find real information for themselves.

Sam: That's quite all right.  Have you reported on other redenominations that were pumped as big profit opportunities?

John: Yes and no. I have reported on RVs and RDs in the past, but the dinar is an unusual situation that is being pumped unlike anything I have seen before. Everyone in the business knows that RVs and RDs are virtually impossible to trade so pumping would have just been seen as nonsense. The IQD RV is being pumped successfully because they are using it to scam non-professionals who don’t know how the currency market works.

I was “introduced” to the dinar RV by a friend who asked me what I thought. I told him RVs don’t work that way and that it sounded like a “rain maker” scam, but he invested anyway. I did a little investigation into how this scam was working and starting writing about it in 2008. I felt like this was a good thing to take a stand on since so many service men and women are being taken advantage of by the scammers.

I have written about other redenominations (Turkey, Mexico, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Germany, Japan, China, Kuwait, Iraq, and Vietnam) and revaluations (China, Japan & Switzerland).  Both redominations and revaluations happen but none of them have or could work like dinar-RV investors think.  – I have also written about other investor scams like advance-fee frauds, target date funds, HYIPs, and mail-order bullion dealers.

Sam: I'm sure a lot of my readers are saying "how can you call the dinar a scam?  I bought dinar at BOA or Chase".  How do you respond?

John: It is legal to exchange currencies with a service bureau or a bank in the U.S. There are still a few that will even exchange the dinar. However, that is not the same as advising that this is a “good investment opportunity.” That is the scam. The currency is just paper issued by the Iraqi government.

Sam: You say the IQD hasn't revalued since 2003, but many investors will tell you that they have doubled their money since they purchased. 

John: A real RV is the result of intentional action by the central bank. Most currencies fluctuate in value over time without any interference from the bank. It is definitely possible to have bought the dinar at some point over the last few years and to be in a profitable position right now but that was not the result of an intentional RV. The real question is whether the dinar can continue to appreciate versus the dollar now?

Whenever I hear this I get pretty skeptical though. Where is the proof? There are plenty of folks who can show they bought between 1500 and 1100 to the dollar, which is where the official rate has ranged since the new series was issued, but counting costs and spread that is a far cry from a money-doubler. There was a VERY brief period in 2003 when the dinar was exchanged at over 1900 to the dollar, but I have yet to see anyone prove that they bought during those few months. Keep in mind that these aren’t my numbers. These are from the Central Bank of Iraq. I always tell people to go look it up themselves and make sure they are getting their information from the source rather than a pumper.

Can you tell us definitively how the Kuwaiti dinar redenomination unfolded?

John: Stage one – Fall 1990
Iraq invades and replaces the Kuwaiti dinar with the Iraqi dinar as the “official” currency. The Kuwaiti government was essentially in exile. However, because of the way currencies were managed in the early 1990’s the official rate for the KWD never changed. The UN condemned the invasion and no one of any consequence recognized the right of Iraq to replace the government and currency of Kuwait. There are many anecdotes floating around that you could have bought the KWD for a fraction of its original value on the black-market for a few weeks during that period but I don’t know of anyone brave enough to come forward and admit (and prove) that they did it. 

Stage two – Winter 1991
The U.S. led invasion and liberation of Kuwait was chaotic to say the least for money supply in Kuwait. I have again heard anecdotes of people being able to buy KWD on the black market during this period but the official exchange rate was still the same. The old Kuwaiti government was restored following the withdrawal of Iraqi troops. This is really important => Unlike Iraq, the same government, currency, central bank, money, and civil system was in place before and immediately after the Iraqi invasion.

Stage three – September 1991
The KWD was redenominated with new bills in 1991. This means that the old bills held by the public were exchanged for new bills. Sometimes redenominations are done at a ratio (referred to as “lopping”) but this one was 1:1 straight across. Theoretically it is possible (this is a big “if”) for some investors who had bought KWD on the black market during the occupation to have made a big return but there are no known institutional investors who have admitted engaging in that activity and I suspect that the few people who did it are keeping quiet since war-profiteering is generally an unpopular if not illegal thing to do.

KWD Exchange rates
The KWD has been pegged to a basket of currencies (dominated by the dollar) or the dollar itself since 1975. Since the mid-1980s when the dollar was released to float more freely the KWD has had an exchange rate that has ranged between $2.78 and $3.10. This includes the period of the Iraqi invasion and the U.S. invasion of Iraq in the early 2000s.

The bottom line is that if you had 1,000KWD worth $3,000 before the invasion you still had 1,000 new KWD after 1991 that was still worth about $3,000 assuming you were able to exchange your hard currency. No one profited from the invasion.

What about the claims that some people made a fortune on the KWD?

John: As I mentioned above I have heard rumors and stories about profits being made by people who were buying KWD for a few weeks on the black market in the fall and winter of 1990, but where is the proof? There is none. In any case, these stories don’t help the hopes for the Iraqi RV because the same money and government existed before and after a 6 month war in Kuwait, which is why it is even theoretically possible to have made some profits. The only thing the Iraqi dinar has in common with the pre-1990 IQD is the name. Everything else has been changed. The government, central bank, and quantity of money supply has been changed since the invasion.

Sam: Did any currency dealers profit from the Kuwaiti dinar?

: Theoretically it was possible to profit from the KWD if you had purchased it on the black market during the Iraqi invasion. There was a brief window of time that it was possible. However, it’s a lot like saying “oh I knew Apple was going to come back so I bought it at the absolute lowest price and sold it at the highest.” That sounds great but where is the proof? Even if he did its still moot. The KWD was the same thing with the same government backing it before and after the invasion. You can pull the historical exchange rate right from the central bank’s website. The IQD is a different currency, different government backing it, different supply, etc, etc.

Sam: If a dinar guru claims that he profited from the Kuwaiti dinar would you say he's lying?  Adam Montana for example made such a claim in a book he wrote.

: Yes, but can I prove it? No, but I can’t prove he doesn’t have magic beans either. It seems extremely unlikely that he was present in Kuwait and prescient enough to buy the KWD on the street when it was available before the Americans went in. If he did it then it should be easy to prove.

To your knowledge, what is the most substantial RV in history?

In absolute value terms the most significant RV in history was the RV of the Chinese Yuan in 2005 that is still ongoing. The exchange rate has actually moved in favor of the yuan 31%. However, there are slim pickings for this kind of RV. Usually an RV is done to lower your currency’s value. The Bank of Japan does this periodically by budging its exchange rate down by a few percentage points that usually evaporates within a few weeks. The Swiss National Bank did it last year when they pegged to the Euro but the change was just a few percentages then as well.

The IQD has fluctuated but has not been revalued since it was reissued in 2004. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has been raising interest rates to head off inflation which probably helped protect its official peg of 1170 to the U.S. dollar. However last year, inflation started getting away from them and the unofficial exchange rate (as reported by the CBI) is now about 1200 to the dollar.

Sam: Have investors ever managed to make a profit off of a redenomination?

John: Its pretty tough, but it is possible. The problem is usually one of liquidity because it is really difficult to buy and sell most of these currencies that go through a redenomination. If you want to do it, the most reliable way to make money from a redenomination is to short the currency. The vast majority of redenominations lead to a currency that continues to fall. You would have made money shorting the TRY in 2005 or the MXN in 1995, which were both trading actively in the forex at the time. This problem is that this is exactly the opposite of what IQD buyers are waiting for. They believe the IQD will go up after an RD, which has pretty much never happened.

If you are wondering about making money from the actual “redenomination” process then the answer is no. A redenomination does not affect the total value of the currency. If you had 120,000 IQD that are currently worth $100USD (1,200 USD/IQD) and the dinar remonetizes tomorrow by dropping three zeroes to a new exchange rate of 1.2 IQD to the dollar then you are flat. You would have to exchange your 120,000 dinar for 120 new dinar, which are worth $.833333 each or $120 in total. A redenomination results in the same aggregate value. Outside of the costs incurred in the transaction there are no gains or losses.

Sam: Is it possible that the US Treasury will take our dinar and use them for oil credits?  This is a common claim made to explain how the RV process will work.

John: I don’t know why they would. The Treasury has FX reserves but not in any amount that would put a dent in oil imports from Iraq in the far future. Besides that, why would spending (injecting more dinar) into the world market drive its value up? Increasing supply drives prices down not up. Secondly – and this is really important - Oil is priced in U.S. dollars and most exporters sterilize their capital flows to prevent becoming dollarized or to head off inflation and some kind of massive reserve of the dinar would make that very difficult. The last thing I always ask when this question comes up is how do they know that the Treasury has some massive dinar reserve? Where did that data come from? It didn’t come from the Treasury. Like most of these rumors and “facts” it was just made up by the scammers.

Sam: Can fractional reserve banking allow investors to cash in $2 trillion or more?

: Not without creating a significant shift in the value of the U.S. dollar. Money supply is measured in different ways but one of these – M1, which is a measure of liquid dollars and deposits in the economy - is just over $2 Trillion now. So you would basically be doubling the liquid dollars in the market. Can a fractional system absorb that from a practical perspective? No.

Sam: Would you be willing to debate Kaperoni, Frank Villa, Medic, Breitling ... etc. on this?

John: Yes, in person or in writing. Anytime.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The Usual Suspects

I've been asked several times, "who can I trust in the dinar world?"  Well, I can't say for certain that you can completely trust anybody, but I think at this point it's safe to say that some are more trustworthy than others.

First we have the people who are saying things every week like "the RV is happening, the rate will be $4 or more, prepare for cash in" .... etc.  This isn't an exhaustive list but it's a start.  The usual suspects are:

Dan Atkinson aka "Checkmate"
Okie Oilman
Freeway Bill

IMO you should completely disregard everything that these people have to say.  Avoid them like the plague!  They're a cancer on the dinar investment.

Next we have the people who don't give rates and dates every week but frequently serve up a heapin' helpin' of BS news analysis.  Among them are:

Randy Koonce
Adam Montana
Wang Dang

Take what these people say with a grain of salt.  Some of what they say is true but a lot of it isn't.  They often offer opinions as facts and most are selling something or have their own website to promote.

The people who IMO offer honest analysis with no hidden agenda are:

American Contractor
Marcus Curtis

I don't agree with these guys on everything but I think they're honest and informed, and I can listen to them without tossing my cookies.

The bottom line is - do your own research.  Use these people not for your sustenance but for guidance to the information you need to draw your own conclusions.

UPDATE!!!  07/10/13 ... I have concluded that Randy Koonce is not somebody with honest analysis and have moved him to the BS News Analysis group.  This move is long overdue but I just now noticed my oversight.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

This Week's Douchie goes to Fr____

Bet you thought I was gonna say Frank, didn't you?  Nope.  Freeway Bill takes the honors this week for calling the RV on Tuesday night. 

_[papajack] I'm just planning to get cashed out but we don't really know the rules yet so working on plan D right now.

[papajack] I do know Dinar Trade will lock in rate but you don't dare miss your appointment. But if it comes out high for only a short time it's an option.

[papajack] Blessedby Well my understanding is they use their Dinar to lock in your rate so they take that serious.

[BellaGrits] JONNY IS ON HIS WAY.....

[wenmar] papajack where are you planning to cashout at or who with?

[papajack] wenmar Not sure till it goes down, I'm going for the best deal


[FreewayBill] Sorry for the delay folks but I believe we have pretty good news for you..... We have firm cofirmation that the IMF indeed has released the Revaluation .... What this means is that it now has been released to all the Central Banks (Our Central Bank is the United States Treasury) and to our banks and the next step would be to show live on the teller screens for cash in!!!

(NOTE!!! Our Central Bank is not the US Treasury ... if anything it's the Federal Reserve)

[FreewayBill] not done yet


[FreewayBill] The time is here folks.... Hit your knees as the blessing is arriving and your dreams to help others will now come true!!!

[FreewayBill] The rate has yet to be released.....

[BWM] I know the obvious questions seem to be popping up... but don't worry about the rate UNTIL it's on the screen... if you have planned then regardless of the rate you will have an initial cash out procedure in place....

[BWM] sandytob nothing is written in stone until we see the rate... and it may not be as you perceive

[FreewayBill] Phone Dinar Banker tomorrow and ask them about your layaway.... depends on whent hey got the word...

Actually there was a rate change on the CBI website this week.  The first change in three years, it went from $1/1170 to $1/1166 later in the week, up a whopping .34%!  That was hardly the RV that Freeway Bill was talking about though, unless he thought a million dinar speculators would be lining up at the banks to cash in on a 4 pip spike.  Interesting that with all of the first rate intel out there, all the contacts at the US Treasury, CBI, business world, government, military .... etc. nobody seemed to have a clue that this change was coming.  Great work, douchebags!  If ever there was any doubt that these guys are clueless this should clear it up.

Friday, January 20, 2012

RD 101

As dinarians discuss Iraq's pending redenomination, the subject of a lop often surfaces only to be met with derision from uninformed or unscrupulous people who refuse to acknowledge that the possibility exists.  I thought it would be good to clear up some misconceptions and clarify exactly what people who know what they're talking about are saying when they refer to a lop.

First of  all, let's define a redenomination (RD).

From Wikipedia:

Redenomination is the process of changing the face value of banknotes or coins used in circulating currency.  When redenomination occurs, financial data that spans the change must be correctly accounted for.  In times of inflation, the same number of monetary units have continually decreasing purchasing power. In other words, prices of products and services must be expressed in higher numbers. If these numbers become excessively large, they can impede daily transactions because of the risk and inconvenience of carrying stacks of bills, or the strain on systems, e.g. automatic teller machines (ATMs), or because human psychology does not handle large numbers well. The authorities may alleviate this problem by redenomination: a new unit replaces the old unit with a fixed number of old units being converted to 1 new unit. If inflation is the reason for redenomination, this ratio is much larger than 1, usually a positive integral power of 10 like 100, 1000 or 1 million, and the procedure can be referred to as "cutting zeroes".

"Cutting zeroes" sounds a lot like "removing zeros" or "deleting the zeros" which has been mentioned many times in statements coming from Iraq.  The slang for removing zeros is "lop", as in lopping or chopping off zeros.  A redenomination can be done without a simple removal of zeros, as was the case with Brazil when they did a 2750 to 1 redeonomination in 1994, but usually they are done with a simple removal of zeros to avoid confusion.  The basic idea is that the currency is replaced with new currency that has a higher value and usually a proportionally lower money supply.

In Iraq's case a lop of three zeros would reduce their money supply from about 25 trillion dinar down to about 25 billion (depending on whose numbers you go by) and raise the value of their currency from $.00086 to $.86.  The money supply's value would remain unchanged at approximately $21.5 billion (25 trillion times $.00086 = 25 billion times $.86).  As they dedollarize theoretically their monetary base of $21.5 billion would expand to compensate for the loss of US dollars. 

Usually a redenomination occurs because of the effects of inflation, but not always.  Sometimes they occur because of political change, like when Iraq's currency changed from the old Saddam dinar to the current dinar, or when European nations converted to the euro.  Sometimes they happen to address the effects of war, as was the case with Kuwait when it redenominated in 1991 because Saddam stole so much of their money and the printing plates for their currency.

Below is a list (from Wikipedia) of nations that have redenominated through the years.

New unit Exchange rate (new:old) Old unit Year Country Cause Note
!a -9e99 !a !a !a !a !a
~z 9e99 ~z ~z ~z ~z ~z
Chinese "silver" yuan 500 000 000 "gold" yuan 1949 China (Republic of China) inflation
Yugoslav novi dinar 13 000 000 1994 dinara 1994 Yugoslavia inflation Anchor currency: German mark
Chinese "gold" yuan 3 000 000 (old) yuan 1948 China (Republic of China) inflation
Peruvian nuevo sol 1 000 000 Peruvian inti 1991 Peru hyperinflation "nuevo" is an official designation and is still in use
Yugoslav 1993 dinar 1 000 000 1992 dinara 1993 Yugoslavia inflation no official designation
Turkish new lira 1 000 000 Turkish lira 2005 Turkey inflation "new" is an official designation and has been dropped in 2009
Hryvnia 100 000 Karbovanets (third) 1996 Ukraine inflation
New Taiwan dollar 40 000 Taiwan dollars 1949 Taiwan (Republic of China) inflation "new" is an official designation and is still used in official documents
Second Renminbi yuan 10 000 First Renminbi yuan 1955 China (Peoples Republic of China) inflation
Peso argentino 10 000 Peso ley 1983 Argentina inflation
Peso (convertible) 10 000 Austral 1992 Argentina inflation
Polish złoty 10 000 Polish złoty 1995 Poland inflation
Leu 10 000 Romanian Leu 2005 Romania inflation
New Ghanaian cedi 10 000 Cedi 2007 Ghana inflation
Azerbaijani new manat 5 000 (old) manat 2006 Azerbaijan inflation
Turkmenistani new manat 5 000 (old) manat 2009 Turkmenistan inflation
Real 2 750 Cruzeiro real 1994 Brazil inflation Anchor currency: United States dollar
Cruzeiro (antigo) 1 000 Real (old) 1942 Brazil inflation
Cruzeiro (novo) 1 000 Cruzeiro (antigo) 1967 Brazil inflation
Austral 1 000 Peso argentino 1985 Argentina inflation
Peruvian inti 1 000 Peruvian sol 1985 Peru inflation
Cruzado 1 000 Cruzeiro (novo) 1986 Brazil inflation
Cruzado Novo 1 000 Cruzado 1989 Brazil inflation
Cruzeiro real 1 000 Cruzeiro (third) 1993 Brazil inflation
New Shekel 1 000 Shekel 1986 Israel inflation
Russian Rouble 1 000 Rouble 1998 Russia inflation
Bulgarian New Lev 1 000 Bulgarian Lev 1999 Bulgaria inflation Anchor currency: German mark
Belarussian Rouble 1 000 Rouble 2000 Belarus inflation
New Mozambican metical 1 000 (old) meticais 2006 Mozambique inflation
Bolivar Fuerte 1 000 (old) Bolivar 2008 Venezuela inflation
Euro 239.640 Slovenian tolar 2006 Slovenia monetary union Eurozone
French Franc 100 Franc 1960 France inflation originally called New Franc
Peso ley 100 Peso moneda nacional 1970 Argentina inflation
Euro 40.3399 Belgian or Luxembourgian francs 2002 Belgium Luxembourg monetary union Eurozone
Euro 30.1260 Slovak koruna 2009 Slovakia monetary union Eurozone
Peso moneda nacional 25 Peso moneda corriente 1881 Argentina inflation
Euro 1.95583 Deutsche Mark 2002 Germany monetary union Eurozone
Cruzeiro (third) 1 Cruzado Novo 1990 Brazil renaming
Karbovanets (third) 1 Soviet ruble 1992 Ukraine
Euro 0.787564 Irish pound 2002 Ireland monetary union Eurozone
Euro 0.585274 Cypriot pound 2008 Cyprus monetary union Eurozone
Austro-Hungarian krone 0.5 gulden/forint 1892 Austria-Hungary monetary union Moving from silver to gold standard
Euro 0.429300 Maltese lira 2008 Malta monetary union Eurozone
Peso moneda corriente  ? Real 1826 Argentina
Second Zimbabwean dollar 1 000 (first) dollar 2006 Zimbabwe inflation
Zimbabwe Third Dollar 10 000 000 000 Zimbabwe Second Dollar 2008 Zimbabwe Hyperinflation
Zimbabwe Fourth Dollar 1 000 000 000 000 Zimbabwe Third Dollar 2009 Zimbabwe Hyperinflation

There are several misconceptions about a lop.  Some people think that a lop means the country's currency becomes worthless and people who hold it will lose everything.  Not true.  Redenominations are done with a time frame for turning in the old currency for the new.  The trick for dinarians would be to find a place thousands of miles away from Iraq to handle that conversion or redeem the IQD for USD.  Some think lops are only done during hyperinflation, when in fact they are often done after hyperinflation has abated; sometimes years later.  Others think that a lop is an admission of failure for the economic policy.  Not at all.  In fact, redenominations are usually done after the country has experienced some success in combating inflation and the currency's value has stabilized.  Another misconception about a lop is that the country that redenominates (in this case - Iraq) would be screwing other nations out of something.  Wrong.  Other nations who hold cash of the currency being replaced would be allowed to convert to the new currency just like everybody else.  If they hold electronic currency the conversion is done via software.  The only way they would be screwed is if there was some secret plan to revalue it to create a windfall for the countries who own it.  In the case of Iraq there is no evidence that any such agreement exists.  Yet another misconception popularized by Breitling is that a lop doesn't affect all denominations.  As was stated in the definition above: "When redenomination occurs, financial data that spans the change must be correctly accounted for."  That means all denominations, all electronic currency, all prices based on the currency's value .... EVERYTHING!  You can't escape the effects of a lop by buying lower denoms or electronic currency any more than you can escape the effects of a nuclear bomb by hiding under your desk.  The change is all-encompassing.

Sometimes you'll hear people who don't believe that Iraq will lop say something like "why are you so negative?"  It's not a matter of being positive or negative.  It's simply a matter of understanding history.  Countries that go through a period of hyperinflation caused by war, sanctions, unrest ... etc. tend to redenominate by removing zeros from their currency after things stabilize somewhat.  Others will act like this whole lop theory is crazy and these "lopsters" are just making it up.  Not at all.  If anything is being made up it's this idea of Iraq revaluing their currency to 1000 or more times its current value.  I have listed above dozens of times when a country has lopped.  I have yet to see anybody present one example of a nation doing what Iraq is supposedly about to do.  If they RV at $.86 or more it would be a phenomenon of economics.  It would be completely unprecedented and would defy the conventional wisdom of the financial world.

Let's take a look at what Shabibi said earlier this year when he visited DC. 

Starting at about 3:30 in:


I've heard a report in the last couple of days That Iraq is about to cut three zeros off the currency ...they call that re-denomination that may be the same question that you just received (at the end of the preceding video somebody asked Shabibi if Iraq was going to revalue their currency) but I wonder if you had any information about that.

Well, I mean .... I don't know whether if it is the same question, I think this cutting of three zeros... shouldn't be exaggerated ... that is a problem...the question is ... just re-denomination and .... people writing a lot of articles in the news papers... criticizing the Central Bank…., that is going to devalue the Iraqi dinar... that is going to depreciate ... all kinds of talks. This is a question, just actually, to facilitated payment... ease of counting and all this things.... when you see a lot of figures, you see trillions and huge figures.... if you want to be precise and you see twelve figures or fifteen figures or digits ... So I think we have a plan on that.

If you remember ... there was not a government decree to add this zeros. It happened because of the course of development of the economy at the beginning of the eighties.... Inflation was very high ... Inflation was rampant and therefore... small denoms start not to be use government started to add the three zeros.... and of course conditions are different now .

Inflation is under control, exchange rate is manage by the Central Bank.... when you have the zeros you could not manage ... not because of fault of the government or the Central Bank (only) ... which I think there was but because there were a lot of exogenous (external) factors.

I'm not saying that we are champions now... there were a lot external factors which affected and a lot of people did not know what to do, so they started to add three zeros and all this things.

So now the situation is completely different from that time, you had a high inflation, you have now a low inflation, you had actually something which is a stable macroeconomics situation . At that time the situation was not stable . So the only way to combat all of this things at the time was to increase the denomination and put three zeros.

I think… to bring back the Iraqi dinar were the three zeros are remove .... of course, this will have to go hand in hand with the monitoring of the exchange rate and all this things, and we'll see ...

I think now, it is probably .... we are studying ...not studying, we have decided actually on that, when to implement that. Removal this three zeros is very soon, but of course this requires not only the Central Bank activity it requires a lot of propaganda, a lot of advertising campaign and all of this things, and you have to go probably a campaign... to educated a lot of people on this things…. and I think it needs a lot of help from the government, from many people from the government, specially the security forces, and we hope the security forces becomes less busy with the violence issue so that they can give more time for us.

So here Shabibi talks about how the zeros came about because of inflation when people quit using the lower denominations, and now that they feel that they have inflation under control they have decided to remove three zeros.  This is a typical lop scenario.  Dr. Shabibi mentions that it will take time to educate the Iraqi people to make for a smoother transition to the new currency and exchange rate.  His use of the word "propaganda" has been taken out of context by some to mean that Iraq has a campaign to mislead us into thinking that they're going to lop instead of RV.  (Obviously English isn't his first language so it's understandable if he uses a wrong word or pronunciation on occasion.)  The context clearly shows that he's referring to an advertising campaign to educate Iraqis, which is standard procedure when a country redenominates.  It has nothing to do with investors.

Hopefully now you're starting to see why many people have referred to the dinar investment as a scam.  It's because these pumpers have taken all of this information about a simple redenomination and misinterpreted it to make inexperienced and unsophisticated currency investors think that they could turn $1000 into $1,000,000 or more.  Then some of them have started to make up intel to support these misinterpretations.

Of course the lop scenario isn't popular with people who make money selling dinar, or by selling advertising on their dinar forums, or by selling other things while they're telling people about this incredible "blessing" we're about to receive.  Nobody is going to get rich from a simple redenomination.  And it's not popular with people who want to believe that they're going to become millionaires by investing a thousand dollars in a hard currency, something that is seen in the investment world as a gamble more than an investment.  The average dinarian would either lose money or just break even.

Like it or not, history tells us that this is the most likely outcome.  Yeah, maybe there's a secret plan at work here.  Maybe Bush, Cheney, and the international bankers had this all set up before we ever invaded Iraq.  Maybe Iraq is fudging the numbers to throw us all off.  Maybe the new lower denoms were printed back in 2003 and have been sitting in storage waiting to be introduced when Iraq revalues the dinar.  Maybe some ingenious innovation of currency valuation has been recently developed.  Maybe there's an impending overhaul of the world's financial system with the Iraqi dinar being used to bail us all out.  Then again, maybe not.

For more research:

(My thanks to dinar_queen at for much of this research.)

Thursday, January 19, 2012

RV 101

Dinarians use the word "revalue" (or RV) frequently but I'm not so sure that most really understand the concept.  From Investopedia:

Revaluation: A calculated adjustment to a country's official exchange rate relative to a chosen baseline. The baseline can be anything from wage rates to the price of gold to a foreign currency. In a fixed exchange rate regime, only a decision by a country's government (i.e. central bank) can alter the official value of the currency.

A revaluation is a calculated adjustment.  Typically those adjustments aren't more than a few percentage points.  In rare cases they are 20% or more.  Gurus and pumpers make reference to an RV of anything from a dime to $5 or more.  Let's break that down to percentages.  An RV to a dime would represent an increase of over 11,500%.  (Remember, "per cent" means "per hundred", so you just add two zeros.  1000% means ten times, 10,000% means 100 times ... etc.)  A dollar would be more than 115,000%.  Two dollars 230,000%.  Three dollars 345,000% .... etc.  When China RV'd in 2005 it was a 2% increase.  The more you understand about revaluation the less likely the gurus' 100,000+% increase seems.
To me, this is a fairly simple investment once you understand a few basic things.  First, a nation's economy is defined primarily by money supply and GDP.  Iraq's money supply is currently around 25 trillion dinar or a little over $20 billion USD and their GDP is around $113 billion a year ($81 billion nominal GDP).  Given these factors Iraq could probably support a substantial revaluation, but when I hear people talking about an RV of $3 or more I know that they're either lying or uninformed.  With 25 trillion dinar in circulation Iraq's money supply would jump overnight from $20 billion to $75 trillion or more.  Not gonna happen.  I don't need any high up sources or "intel" to know that.  Just common sense.  They would need to bring their money supply down to a trillion dinar just to think about an RV at $1, and they're nowhere close to that right now.

For four months now I have been calling the pumpers/gurus on their bogus intel and flawed analysis.  During that time countless claims of an impending RV have gone unfulfilled, despite the "highest level" of the sources and the reputations that have been staked on the reliability of the intel.  Every week I select one or more of these people for a Douchebag award, knowing that what they're sharing is BS.  People are starting to take notice and ask me how I know that they're wrong, and how I can be so sure of what I'm saying?  Well, let me give you a little background.

I bought dinar like most of you, thinking that the RV was going to happen very soon and I didn't want to be left out.  Being rushed to purchase I didn't really have the time to do adequate research.  Since the RV didn't happen when I was told that it would, I started doing my due diligence to find out what was really happening with this investment.  I was assured by people who bought dinar that it wasn't a scam, but the more I dug into it the more it started to resemble a scam.  True, you can always get most of your money back, so in that respect it's not really a scam.  But the so-called gurus are not giving people the whole picture, and in most cases they're misrepresenting the parts of the picture that they do offer.

For example, gurus like to tell people about the numerous times that Shabibi has talked about increasing the value of the dinar, but they don't explain to people that a redenomination does exactly that.  It increases the value as it decreases the supply, which Shabibi has also said that they will do.  There is no net gain, but in the IQD's case the value would jump from $.00086 to $.86 as the money supply decreases from 25 trillion to roughly 25 billion, in effect removing three zeros from their currency.  That's clearly what Shabibi is referring to, but how many gurus tell you that?  Is that what Iraq is going to do?  Who knows?  But that's definitely what they're describing.  They even made reference to similar redenominations (lops) in Turkey, Brazil, and Romania that they were studying to decide how to proceed. 

Another example would be the references to revaluing the currency to combat inflation.  Gurus love to say that inflation is our friend, but what they don't tell you is that there have already been adjustments to the IQD to combat inflation, and nobody became a millionaire off of those "RV"s.  But for some reason we're led to believe that the next adjustment will make us all rich.  Rubbish!  If inflation gets too high in Iraq I would expect them to tweak the rate to no more than $.0011 which would be an increase of about 30%.  You'd have to already be a millionaire to buy enough dinar to make a million off of that RV.

As you can see from these charts, the dinar's value stabilized as inflation was brought under control in 2006.  The adjustments to the exchange rate from 2006-2009 were small percentages designed to help manage the inflation rate.  Nothing in these charts suggests that anybody is going to get rich from any future inflation-induced rate changes.

The second thing that people need to understand is how currencies are valued.  There are many factors involved, such as:
  1. Money supply - Hyperinflation brought on by two decades of war and sanctions caused Iraq's money supply to skyrocket from less than 30 billion to upwards of 30 trillion dinar.  With that much in circulation there's no way that Iraq can have a valuable currency without a redenomination or lop. 
  2. Stability - Iraq's government is a fledgling democracy, and has to deal with tribal conflicts, corruption, and a general lack of comprehension of how democracies function.  Such a government doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in it's ability to survive, let alone thrive.
  3. GDP - Iraq's GDP is ranked 62nd in the world, behind such economic powerhouses as Angola, Bangladesh, Slovakia, and Nigeria.  Yes, it's improving, but they have a long way to go before they're ranked among the highest in the world.
  4. Diversity of the economy - Over two-thirds of Iraq's GDP comes from oil.  For their currency to grow in value they need to develop other products and services so that their economy won't be dependent on one product.  The price of oil fluctuates wildly at times, so a diverse economy would help them to weather those periods of volatility.  It would also help them to reduce unemployment.
  5. Infrastructure - Iraq has the second largest oil reserves in the world, but their infrastructure is currently insufficient to produce more than three million barrels of oil a day.  It will take them years of progress to reach their reported goal of 10 million barrels a day.  They also have a long way to go in developing their roads, communications, and banking system to the point of their more advanced neighbors.
  6. Security - Iraq still has a big problem in this area, and businesses are nervous about investing in a country where their employees and facilities might be the target of terrorists or insurgents. 
  7. Peace - Iraq is currently no longer at war, but it faces threats from Iran and civil war constantly.
  8. Inflation - Iraq has made a great deal of progress in this area, but there's still reason for concern as Shabibi has stated on numerous occasions.
  9. Debt - This is one of the strongest factors in Iraq's favor.  Very little debt. 
  10. Natural resources - By far the biggest thing in Iraq's favor.  They have an abundance of natural resources that inspires hope in their future. 
As Iraq makes progress in these areas their currency should increase in value, but to expect them to RV now to anywhere near their pre-Sadam value is pure fantasy.  They have a lot of work to do first.

This is why I can state so confidently that the gurus are wrong every week.  I understand the basics.  There's no real mystery here.  No secret plan.  No New World Order conspiracy to uncover.  No cryptic messages to decode.  Just get the basics down and you'll know right away how to separate the gold nuggets from the cow turds.

I've recently listened to several conference calls presenting the latest intel from various gurus who are always wrong.  The consensus among these types has been that the RV was going to happen by the end of the year or right after the first of 2012.  Well of course we're into the third week of January and still no RV.  Let me make a prediction right now.  I will stake my reputation on the fact that the value of the IQD will remain relatively unchanged as of April 1, 2012.  It might go up a few % but nothing more.  Like I said, 30% at the most.  When all of these gurus are wrong I invite you to come back and review what I've presented in this blog.  They depend on intel.  I go by the history of currency revaluations and redenominations.  They go by contacts.  I go by common sense.  They follow conspiracy theories.  I follow basic economics.  I'm not bragging here.  I'm just making an observation.  People who go by guru intel are always disappointed.  People who understand the basics will recognize just how unlikely the overnight millionaire scenario is and they will exercise patience and a cautious outlook as this speculative investment comes to its ultimate conclusion.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Sonny1 Says Goodbye

One of the old timers in the dinar world decided to hang it up on Monday, saying he is bored with it all and wants to get on with his life.  This is nothing new as most of you probably know.  Many gurus have announced their retirement only to return a few days, weeks, or months later.  I wrote a post on this called "Gurus and Goodbyes".

Sonny1 aka Nick, has been active for years on various dinar forums; especially Dinar Speculator owned by Medic and Dinar Vets owned by Adam Montana.  Sonny1 and Adam go way back.  With both being from Wisconsin I have a feeling they knew each other before the dinar thing came along.  Sonny1's claim all along is that he has friends who are economists and contacts who are dinar investors in Dubai.  Through his contacts he frequently gets information to pass along to the faithful, and is frequently wrong.  In honor of his withdrawal from the dinar scene I figured I would offer a sort of tribute to Sonny ... a "Greatest Hits" if you will.  I would like to acknowledge Delight from for their research on this.



[LittleMissGrits] sonny1 ... what is your take on the banks supposedly being on alert for rate change?[sonny1] LittleMissGrits i was told the same thing by the 5-3 in chicago area
[LittleMissGrits] sonny1 .. the bank people actually told you that?
[SBX] sonny1 you wre told directly by 5/3
[sonny1] SBX yes
[financeminister] there sure are a lot of posts lately about banks getting notified (heads up) about dinar
[SBX] 5th 3rd
[dfekigjkh2] 5-3 is fifth/third bank
[sonny1] and two others, on saturday, and they werent b.sing they said it is new territory for them and dont know the proscess
[sonny1] i call them 2-3 times a month, and have ordered millions of dinar from them, i have became friendly with the manager, and she she thats true
[sonny1] same as mailman, no date nor a rate
[LittleMissGrits] sonny1 who tells the banks to be on alert ... the treasury?
[sonny1] LittleMissGrits they were told thru a e-mail, they wont tell anyone its true, so if you ask them, they will laugh at you
[sonny1] so whenyou call, and alot of you will, they will tell you it isnt true, i wont give the actual location

1/26/2010 a.m.

[sonny1] good news today, shouldnt be much longer now
[sonny1] its a very good day for us
[LittleMissGrits] sonny1 so u think the RV and budget are tied?
[sonny1] LittleMissGrits i do
[sonny1] thats why it took so long
[LittleMissGrits] sonny1 time frame?
[sonny1] imo, we should see rv in the next week or two, maybe sooner

1/26/2010 p.m.

[sonny1] ok as we know over the last 3 weeks the news has dropping hints of a rv
[sonny1] like the article that said we are waiting for a new exchange rate before we approve the budget, and the jan 31st article, and the we were going to change the exchange rate, but civil unrest, and political unrest caused a halt
[sonny1] now as we know the exchange rate is done
[sonny1] how they did it i have no clue, i am surprised, very surprised
[sonny1] the erm will be implemented so when iraq does rv and it should be soon now ( i hate saying that) they wont take a huge exchange rate hit with all the dinar coming back to them
[sonny1] there budget is roughly 80 billion u.s, if they didnt put the erm in place there exchange rate if a dollar lets say, could drop 50 cents with huge dinar exchanged
[sonny1] and there budget would be screwed, and they would be way short
[sonny1] my guys did the math with there budget, and all the infrastructure work they have planned the rate should be around 1.50-1.60, or the euro
[sonny1] now for the chapter 7 guys, i agree 7 is huge for them to get out of, but there is no chance of them getting out, without rv'ing first, they arent get out of 7 at 1170
[sonny1] u.n wont give them 150 billion in cash and assets back at 1170, it defeats the purpose
[sonny1] they have been meeting with the u.n now for the last 3 days, my guess is that they needed the u.n approval on the rate, and they needed to know if that rate will help them get out of 7, and by the budget passing tells me they all are on the same page
[sonny1] and its odd that its coming together 6 weeks before the elections, think maliki is a dummy, think again when this goes down, he will be a hero
[sonny1] i hate saying this, cause in the past it hasnt happened, but the numbers are adding up, we are within a few days to two weeks of cashing in.


[sonny1] they said they want to phase out the large notes by the end of year
[sonny1] a rv would have to happen well before then, they would need all those notes back by years end
[sonny1] so imo, the rv could happen anytime, heres a question to think about, how long will it take iraq to get back the 10-12 trillion that joes like us have


[sonny1] this recent news to me shows me that we are probably with-in days of this happening
[sonny1] then i get a call that totaly backs that up
[sonny1] a trusted bud, who has been right and early on news called me about an hour ago
[sonny1] the people in dubai that i have, who also invest in kuwait, told me that they are hearing this as well, not just them, but major dinar buying groups over there
[sonny1] and we could see this whole thing go down in the next 72 hours
[sonny1] they are very confident in the rate around the euro, they said anything lower would be shocking


[MoneyFreak] sonny1 every thing looks like it is going on the direction we want it too correct? or are there hidden speed bumps in the way still? just curious'
[golfguy] sonny1 where could we research an answer to the rv process?
[sonny1] MoneyFreak it looks like it is going to go the way we want, i cant really think of speedbumps
[sonny1] golfguy i dont know
[BTSC2000] sonny1 ok sounds like something has to break soon!
[sonny1] this is getting interesting, hang tight, it shouldnt be much longer......see ya


[sonny1] gankans there getting imf restrictions lifted, obviously those restrictions were set to stop a rv, and now there gone
[bambi] toweyk to set up the new elected officals and get the government in place imo
[krull] sonny1, is the IRS trying to figure out a way to get it's pound of flesh out of us?
[sonny1] the sanctions were put on by the fund, and now the fund asked them to remove them..........can you ask yourself
[sonny1] im not taking questions anymore.....its pointless......i wish everyone could respect this and let me hang out when i come on for the last little time til this bursts
[gankans] The exchange rate has been fixed for the past 4-5 years at a low rate to drop inflation
[k98nights] sonny1 thank you!!
[Drstain] Sonny thanks for all you have done, pull up a chair and sit a spell.
[sonny1] i will break stuff down, and say what rumors i got, but it is pointless.......this thing is sooooooooooooooooooooo done.......i just dont know when


[sonny1] the gentleman who got me into this long and drug out journey 6 years ago called me today
[sonny1] we havent talked much lately, and he wanted to give me an updat on what he had
[sonny1] he has middle eastern ties, and has friends in dubai, and kuwait
[sonny1] not that that matters, hes like ef hutton, if he talks to me i shut up and listen
[sonny1] i have much respect
[sonny1] anyway, he talked to his friends today in kuwait
[sonny1] they are all in investing, and so is my bud, he is an ex economics proffessor
[sonny1] and has done very well, he has 80grrrrr american invested in this
[sonny1] and wants nothing more than to cas-in
[sonny1] ]cash
[sonny1] with that said, he told me that all the people in kuwait, including government members expect this to be wrapped up no later than 48 hours after they announce a winner in the elections
[sonny1] and if you have read the news today, they expect this to be as early as wednesday
[sonny1] but they hand who knows for sure


[sonny1] well adam was on last night, his info i beleieve is in the chat archives
[sonny1] i wont tae that one, but ill bet you it happens by the end of march
[sonny1] i got a call last night, and my buddy reassured me that the people in kuwait, including government, say 48 hours after elections are confirmed
[sonny1] and that the imf meeting on the 18th was to "finalize" everything
[john1025] sonny1 ok that could be weeks
[sonny1] sfredieu no $hit
[babysnake] sonny1 , have any idea about the runners yelling fruad an how it will affect the elections
[sonny1] john1025 i think by next tuesday or wed, they should make the election announcement
[gina1exp] sonny1 now that would be a great birthday present
[sonny1] babysnake i think we have stepped in, so it doesnt turn into a joke
[sonny1] the weird thing is there is no time iraq cant announce an rv
[sonny1] they could do it anytime
[babysnake] sonny1 , how would our input help ------don't they just do their on thing there- wonder how strong their opinion of fraud will take them to stop M from winning
[sonny1] its just we are greedy and want it yesterday, im no different
[RDP_62] sonny1 i agree,the election is over,all they are doing now is counting ballots
[john1025] sonny1 if they leave the rv up to the new government it could be a very long time, so I'm hoping they have already decide on rate and date before the election
[sonny1] babysnake m will win, we wont let him lose, we trained him to good to let someone we dont know in there (THIS IS ONE THAT HE GOT RIGHT! m=Maliki and he ended up the winner ... but there was no RV once the winner was determined)


[sonny1] nothing changed since i was on yesterday morning, they truly think this week could be it
[sonny1] iraq said that there revenues were going to go up 10 fold
[sonny1] either there smoking some nuggets, or there rv'ing.


[sonny1] i has been brought to my attention, that this ride is almost over
[sonny1] and not over like tk over, but realy over
[sonny1] you guys know i usualy dont get crazy over rumors, but we are finaly with-in 90 days of this being over, i cant say how i know, but its TRUE


[sonny1] first of all, i just want to say once again, and its the last time i am going to type this, that everything i told you guys is true
[sonny1] what is up is this, and i will never say what company or anyones name, i dont know any of you and will not get anyone in trouble over people i dont know, and prob will never meet
[sonny1] this company is making something for iraq, it pertains to oil, they need it stat
[sonny1] they wanted it by june first, but they dont have any money to pay for it
[sonny1] when so this company got a call begging them to release it, this company said go to he ll
[sonny1] they got several more calls, these calls stated that iraq was going to up there rate of exchange, and it was the process and iraq wanted to pay AFTER.......THEY asked again company said take a hike
[sonny1] the second to last call told this company that everything was to be taken care of and they would have there check between july 26th and august 1st
[sonny1] there are companies also that are needed in this whole thing, and this company i am refering to is working with them.
[sonny1] these other companies to a certain extent were told the same thing
[sonny1] and it pertains to oil, and well being
[sonny1] that is all i have, to me its FACT....NO B.S........I dont have an exact date just a when by
[sonny1] and i dont have a RATE......BUT i wll not be higher than the euro


[sonny1] wow this thing is going to be over quick
[sonny1] enjoy whats left of this ride, because were about to get off it
[sonny1] linda55 not this week, but it could be imo, within 20 days, but im still sticking to july 26th or alitte before
[sonny1] linda55 i think upper bank peeps now whats coming, but tellers and branch managers will find out the same time we do
[sonny1] you cant tell me the head of chase and boa (who helped iraq set up atm's) dont know whats coming


[sonny1] i have been on the phone alot today
[sonny1] and i still stick to my july 26th date, infact i know it will happen by then
[sonny1] but there is a good chance it will happen this week, from what i am hearing
[sonny1] now if it doesnt happen this week, dont get all bent out of shape
[sonny1] as we know it will be over by july 26th
[sonny1] this is the biggest week in the history of iraq


[sonny1] i just wanted everyone to know that nothing has changed on the reval by july 26th, and i stay firm to that date
[sonny1] i do think that there is a good chance of the reval being close to the 2.00 range
[Linda Bower] sonny - digi wants to know about your DUBAI contact
[sonny1] i dont realy have anything else, i got a text yesterday from my professor buddy, who has been right a few times, and he said that there is a 75% chance of an rv this week
[sonny1] but we still stick to the july 26th,
[sonny1] Linda Bower there the ones with the 75% chance of this week, but we are still sticking to the 26th as the date, on or before the 26th i should say
[sonny1] my professor buddy is the one who is realy tight with the guys in dubai


[sonny1] very good news on that ofac release though
[sonny1] so its on the world currency list, and released from ofac, this thing could pop anytime, hope you all have a plan
[sonny1] it will stay around its initial rv rate for a while
[keepmwlknfny] sonny1 yea im thinkin best news we have heard in a while!
[sonny1] keepmwlknfny yes it is, we are very,very close


[sonny1] good evening everyone, as many of you know over the last couple of weeks i have said that there is no way it would rv with-in the next 6 weeks or so
[sonny1] but there is no way it will go that long
[sonny1] i know i have been wrong many times
[sonny1] never intentionaly
[sonny1] but this thing should be wrapped up in the next 3 weeks

[sonny1] they will have a gov in the coming week, and it will rv with-in 4 days of this event
[sonny1] and i know i have never been in the $3.00 camp
[sonny1] and i still dont think it will be that high, but i am now in the $2.00 camp
[sonny1] i have had one of the best info and fact days ever with this investment
[sonny1] and this no cash-in auction for 11 days now sealed it for me, it was explained to me the right way today, iraq has taken in over 50 billion over the last 7 years with there auctions, and now no cash for 11 days. means they havent been holding auctions
[sonny1] thats 2 work weeks of no auctions
[keepmwlknfny] sonny1 sonny1 that whole no cash auctions is bigger then we thought!!!
[sonny1] keepmwlknfny it means they havent been doing auctions
[keepmwlknfny] sonny1 sonny1 so you think that within 4 days of govt seated we will see the RV?
[sonny1] keepmwlknfny i do, i had a long, long chat with a very smart, non internet, realy smart person today.


[sonny1] sparklingblue the same peeps that gave me the pm settling info, gave me there opinion on when we could-should see the rv
[sonny1] they think if not the rest of this week, then shortly after there holiday (holiday is nov 14-21)
[sonny1] i dont sense excitement, this is what you all have been waiting for, i would think you guys would be happy
[sonny1] wyocowgirl honestly between .50-$3.00, so im not realy any help on rate
[stnkng1] sonny1 do you think there is a chance it wont rv this year?
[sonny1] stnkng1 not very good
[stnkng1] sonny1 ty
[sonny1] they told us last year they wanted it done by the end of 2010
[MrRich] sonny1 I'd like to be excited but I'm going to have to remain cautiously optimistic for now
[sonny1] MrRich i was remaining that way as well, but the goi is done (it appears) now is the time to go to the next level
[sonny1] well guys im not sure how much i will be on anymore, if i dont come back on i just want to seriously want to wish you all the best, im not saying the rv will be here tomm, but its on the horizon, best wishes ALL..........


[sonny1] but someone who i trust, and has been right a few times on the news end of it, happens to think that at some point this week the cbi will release the rate
[sonny1] he says they will need the large notes back in by years end
[sonny1] and we wont be able to hold the large notes til it goes up to 2.00 or 3.00 dollars
[sonny1] or if you ask TK.......8.27
[sonny1] no offese to anyone, but if anyone thought it would come out the gate from 1170 to 3.22 was kinda dreaming
[machcobra] sonny1 if RV'S this week and has to have all the large notes in by years end, that leaves very little time?
[sonny1] machcobra a month, i need 28 minutes
[sonny1] seand .84-1.61
[sonny1] Snickers77 but there 1170 dollars in the negative right now, its not going to go up 3000 TIMES........ Sorry
[sonny1] im just telling you all what im hearing, i get alot of b.s, but this one i kinda believe


[sonny1] there is some real news for once
[sonny1] kaperoni posted some info on another site about them already starting the 3 zero reduction in Iraq
[sonny1] it is totaly true
[sonny1] it is sucking in the large 1-5-25000 notes back in
[sonny1] smaller notes are the ones they are currently relying on
[sonny1] so it appears that shabbs has started the rv process a few months ago
[sonny1] all the credit on this goes to kaperoni
[mi17mech] beancounter8 they are still going on like normal there is no change in money they still us 10's and 25's
[sonny1] i dont think you guys realize what this means
[sonny1] the 25000 and 10000 notes are drying up quickly
[mi17mech] what credit its not true
[sonny1] shabbs has already started the rv process
[mi17mech] sonny1 I'm sitting in Taji as we speak I work with the Iraqis everyday and there is no truth to the big bills being brought back in.We just went to dinner last night and the Iraqis pided with 25' nad a 10's They will be taking another pay cut this mo or next when that happens it may start
[sonny1] Deepthought no, the taking 3 zeros is by them taking the lare notes off the street slowly, its not a l o p its a process
[mi17mech] sonny1 they just got paid in them. They pay them in cash
[sonny1] mi17mech gov pays them, or contractors
[mi17mech] sonny1 gov I work with the Iraqi Air Force
[sonny1] mi17mech thx, im just telling what i have heard with my own ears, its on the forum if you guys all want to listen to it...
[mi17mech] sonny1 It is comin they talk about what is on the Tv all the time and what there Dads tell them I would think by June or July
[mi17mech] sonny1 I listen all the time but when you all start going and there is not truth to it I will say so from what I know from being with them everyday
[JKET955] mi17mech so you think we still have 6 more months to an rv??
[mi17mech] JKET955 maybe or more I dont do date or rate


and with troops withdrawing sooner, the rv balloon quickly deflates. it was a good run though, we had a chance, now we take our ball and head home..... well as of dec 6th atleast....


i want to wish everyone my best, i know it doesn't really matter, because i have been wrong alot, but i will not be coming on to post,chat,or even looking in anymore on the dinar.

it isn't because i do not think it will happen, but pure boredom has set in, and its time to move on from the dinar, and concentrate on having a life.

good luck,



In fairness to Sonny he was right when he stated that Maliki would prevail, and about the weekend that the PM issue would be resolved.  But all of the RV date stuff was off.  My thinking on Sonny1's sources is this .... I have no reason to believe that the guy is making money off of anything he says.  Sometimes he has been absent from the scene for weeks or months at a time.  You don't do that if you're simply pumping.  I think the guy trusts his sources, but I also believe his sources don't have a clue what's going on any more than you or I do.  Just because your sources are in Dubai and claim to be big investors doesn't mean they know anything.  I've talked with many people who have great connections in business, government, the military, the oil industry ... etc.   None of their intel on the RV has ever panned out.  EVER!  As Enoch8 told us in my interview with him, the higher up you go with your intel the more likely you're getting disinformation.  That's counter-intuitive but apparently true.  I feel kind of sorry for Sonny1 because I think he was really trying to get it right.  This is a brutal lesson to learn, but the facts are the facts.  That's why it's best to stick with sound, time-proven investment principles and economics.  Happy trails, Nick.