Thursday, January 5, 2012
An Interview with Scooter
Sam I Am: I appreciate you taking the time to chat with me today.
Scooter: Oh, you're very welcome
Scooter: thank you for having me
Sam I Am: Can you tell the readers a bit about your background?
Scooter: I was Born in Southern California.
Scooter: The family then moved to the great northwest at an early age.
Scooter: Northeastern Washington is a beautiful place to grow up. It was a small town 80 miles north of Spokane in the northern rockies.
Scooter: It was particularly interesting being the wild and crazy kid that I was and
your father was the Varsity football, wrestling, and Golf coach.
Scooter: After high school, I moved to Phoenix and Went to College
Scooter: Got my four year degree in 2.5 years
Scooter: I knew if I didn't go blasting right through
Scooter: I would never get it -- they called me PRIMATE back then - don't ask...
Scooter: Started my first professional position in software design
Scooter: moved to Chicago and got recruited by a very large organization
Scooter: to manage their software development teams throughout North America
Scooter: It was at that time that I did two things that changed my life
Scooter: Started playing the FOREX market
Scooter: became a partner in a small startup software company
Scooter: The FOREX venture started out bad --- at least the first week
Scooter: we'll get to that in just a second
Scooter: but the software venture exploded worldwide
Scooter: The package was sold in 90 countries and 13 languages
Scooter: big hit!
Sam I Am: impressive
Scooter: We sold the business in 2001 but I was still playing FOREX.
Scooter: again -- wait for that story because it gets good
Scooter: Nevertheless, sold the software company and moved back to Phoenix
Scooter: Chicago has incredible culture and people but the weather really stinks!
Scooter: back to the FOREX
Scooter: I started FOREX in 2000
Scooter: maybe 2001
Scooter: anyhow, I went into the game and purchased Forex Made EZ. Essentially, the product was
supposed to do it all and provide indicators as to when you buy and sell.
Scooter: In essence, I didn't have to think.
Scooter: So, as a result the first week, being the impatient man that I am
Scooter: I got DRILLED !!! I lost about 10k that first week
Sam I Am: ouch
Scooter: My better half lynched me !!!
Scooter: but I loved this market
Scooter: it was like nothing I've ever experienced
Scooter: As a result, I had to go to classes before I could ever start trading live again.
Scooter: somewhat funny -- but I learned a very hard lesson that I still practice today
Scooter: Never chase the market
Scooter: always let the market come to you!
Scooter: My instructor pretty much told me my problem wasn't that I made the wrong decision
Scooter: it was more of a patience problem from being a MAN
Scooter: anyhow -- I loved this market and ever since i've been active on and off for the past decade
Scooter: At this time, I currently live in Phoenix and just acquired another software company and it's on the precipice of exploding
Scooter: so, I'm pretty excited
Scooter: I purchased my first DiNAR in 2005
Scooter: and my last batch in 2006
Scooter: I was on a plane traveling from Phoenix to San Diego
Scooter: and saw a full page spread in USA Today
Scooter: and bought immediately after exiting the aircraft
Scooter: I thought it would be a 8 - 10 year play
Scooter: and thought it would open around $0.35
Scooter: That was one long sentence
Sam I Am: that's okay
Sam I Am: How did you get started on the dinar forums?
Scooter: The forums ---
Scooter: Let's see, I think I joined one of the major forums in late 2009
Scooter: I met a couple of folks and went to chat in hopes to learn a bit more about this investment.
Scooter: At that time, I was hot and heavy in playing FOREX. I was glued to analsys and research to learn about what's happening in the marketspace
Scooter: I mainly was playing the majors -- rarely the exotics
Scooter: but I quickly found out that the leaders in these forums
Scooter: were stating information that was completely inaccurate but I stayed quietly on the sidelines
Sam I Am: What do you think about the information available on the forums?
Scooter: Since that time, the information and research has improved 100%
Scooter: but I still think the community suffers from some basic problems
Scooter: too much of the information is based on "INTEL"
Scooter: and not on factual data coming from the organizations that do this type of work everyday
Scooter: Just my opinion
Scooter: at that time in early 2010
Scooter: the information was being spewed out there and I knew for a fact that it was completely off base
Scooter: and I also witnessed innocent people getting hurt
Scooter: hurt badly too
Scooter: They were overleveraging themselves to the point of losing their homes and looking at this investment as a lottery ticket
Scooter: As a result, I engaged myself and started the massive reading binge
Scooter: Started posting the information and the response was
Scooter: well, it overwhelmed me and I was honored by everyone's appreciation
Sam I Am: So Scooter research began as a way of keeping people grounded and getting them to go by factual information?
Scooter: Haaah! Yes.
Scooter: I suppose so
Scooter: I started doing organized chats
Scooter: at several sites
Scooter: not the kind where I came in and chatted with friends
Scooter: but a thought out written chat
Scooter: at that point, Scooter Research was "Branded" and had it's own identity
Sam I Am: I see
Sam I Am: Let's talk a little about the investment
Scooter: one second
Scooter: one last item
Sam I Am: okay
Scooter: NEVER in this venture have I received any fiduciary rewards or money or anything.
Scooter: I always felt if I did receive cash, my credibility would be severely diminished.
Scooter: I now have a blog
Scooter: and now get some minor $$$$
Scooter: from the ads -- but it's nominal at best
Sam I Am: if it's like my blog it's very minor
Scooter: I can buy my wife dinner a couple times a month
Scooter: But I enjoy having it and it's my center where I post all my material
Scooter: it's a hobby I guess
Sam I Am: the URL?
Scooter: I'm allowed to do that
Sam I Am: sure
Scooter: Nevertheless, it's fun and I enjoy the research
Scooter: it's just fun to me
Scooter: I like the emerging market space and I think it's important today more than ever
Scooter: particularly when we look at the current worldwide financial picture
Scooter: I firmly believe that natural resources from sovereign nations
Scooter: will be the next currency of the 21st century
Scooter: at least, it will have a huge impact on the strength of the currency
Scooter: I'm now researching over 42 Emerging Markets right now
Scooter: learned a lot
Sam I Am: I'm sure
Sam I Am: now?
Scooter: now, your question
Sam I Am: What do you think the current money supply is in Iraq?
Scooter: Well, once again, I look at the facts
Scooter: and I take that one step farther
Scooter: for example, when the CBI post there bi weekly financial indicators
Scooter: I like to verify this data with other organizations
Scooter: Because data and statistics can be made to look many ways
Scooter: depending on the audience
Scooter: and in Iraq's case -- a double verification is always a good practice
Scooter: when taking a look at those numbers -- I try to verify with the IMF database or World Bank Database, etc..
Scooter: does that make sense
Scooter: I hope so
Scooter: just a practice I try and do
Sam I Am: yes
Scooter: so back to circulation amount
Scooter: and in Iraq, outside of banks right ?
Sam I Am: ok
Scooter: As of December's report ---
Scooter: the November's number are clearly showing 26.866 Trillion IQD outside of banks
Scooter: shows m1 to be 57.997 Trillion
Scooter: M2 67.160 Trillion
Scooter: with that said
Scooter: there's some variables that we need to look at
Scooter: one, some of that could be in reserves of other countries
Scooter: and those reserves will never see the shores of Iraq ever again.
Scooter: that number is unknown right now
Scooter: and nobody knows what that amount currently is
Scooter: we do know that within the immediate area of baghdad
Scooter: there's approximately 4 trillion in hard currency
Scooter: Saleh just reported that one
Scooter: with that said, and knowing Baghdad has approximately 6 - 8 million of the populace
Scooter: we can start dissecting and making educated guesses
Scooter: Now, the other unknown in this equation are two items
Scooter: The $173 Billion USD sitting at US Treasury account that came from the DFI's Savings account
Scooter: We don't know, how much $$$$$ is being sheltered from the partner countries
Scooter: to be dedicated to Iraq when the structural changes go down
Scooter: What do you think the circulation in Iraq is?
Scooter: sorry, I know., you're doing the questions ...
Sam I Am: My guess is 20 trillion
Scooter: In Iraq?
Sam I Am: Like I said, it's a guess
Scooter: just like mine
Scooter: I think it's in the 12 - 14 range
Scooter: probably closer to 12
Scooter: I figure outside countries will carry 8 trillion
Scooter: independent investors is unknown and the speculation is all over the map.
Scooter: like I said -- everything is a guess -- ha ha
Scooter: I think the moves that are required to reduce the circulation of the larger notes have been occurring over the last six months in country
Sam I Am: Do you think there has been a significant reduction of IQD in circulation in Iraq?
Scooter: I think they will make the structural changes and we'll see a hybrid conversion
Scooter: the larger notes will be sucked into the CBI and they will SOIL those notes immediately
Scooter: the value is still the same -- i mean of the aggregate number ---
Sam I Am: replaced by USD?
Scooter: if the value of there reserves were 25 Billion before -- it will be valued at 25 billion when they convert
Scooter: they need to to create immediate demand for IQD
Scooter: they need to de dollarize their economy and fast
Sam I Am: right
Sam I Am: that's their stated goal
Scooter: Their goal will be to make the IQD the standard throughout the country
Scooter: and make it attractive to do business inside the country and to investors inside and outside the country.
Sam I Am: okay, so you're saying the IQD will be sucked into the CBI upon the RV?
Scooter: I think they are already reducing the 1000 series notes as we speak
Scooter: but we won't have the details of their banking circulation for the year
Scooter: until the third week of January
Scooter: maybe fourth week
Scooter: that's when some good juicy details about the exact make up the the circulation comes out
Scooter: it will tell us how many 25k notes are in the private banks, government banks, and individuals hands
Scooter: all the notes and coins
Scooter: but they only provide that report once a year
Scooter: So they will suck those notes in and deploy the CPI immediately
Scooter: remember, they have already deploy almost 2 million of those smart cards
Sam I Am: CPI?
Scooter: those cards are like having 15 wallets or files on you
Scooter: Consumer Price Index
Scooter: They modified it in March of 2010 to reflect the lower denoms
Scooter: they just haven't deployed it yet
Sam I Am: ok
Scooter: also, those Iraqi citizens will immediately need to open their first checking account
Scooter: if they haven't already
Scooter: they'll deploy the lower denoms and coins immediately
Scooter: and suck in those larger notes
Scooter: I don't think they'll be able to do this all at once
Scooter: it's virtually impossible to do this in a short period of time
Scooter: As a result, they will be encouraged in some way shape or form to convert that CASH into electronic form
Scooter: Just my opinion
Sam I Am: okay
Scooter: one other item
Scooter: they need to develop their Government Bond and Commercial Bond market space
Scooter: That is very very critical
Sam I Am: Yes, Enoch made reference to that
Scooter: Yes, the government needs liquidity and that's what these bonds can provide
Scooter: Those bonds will help pay for these critical projects over the long run
Scooter: It appears they are leaning toward the Japanese model
Scooter: that's another discussion
Sam I Am: How does your view now differ from your original time frame and expectation of $.35?
Scooter: Good question!!!,
Scooter: when I first made my estimates,
Scooter: I hadn't reviewed the 1000's pages of documents from multiple organizations
Scooter: So my opinion has changed quite bit since that time.
Scooter: Now, with that said
Scooter: let me make the disclaimer
Scooter: anything, and I mean anything, can occur in this investment
Scooter: that includes nothing happening at all.
Scooter: but when the founders of the plan developed the details, they had several strategic goals in mind
Scooter: Significantly improve the lifestyle of every Iraqi citizen
Scooter: move them from earning $2.00 a day per family to
Scooter: something significantly better with a currency that had a strong purchasing power
Scooter: With that goal achieved, the citizens of Iraq, in theory, would be drawn to more market driven activities
Scooter: We knew they had all the resources
Scooter: but politics, the enemy, and several mistakes made throughout has slowed the process down considerably
Scooter: Iraq needed to be the poster child for western democracy throughout the middle east
Scooter: as a result,
Scooter: this RV was built around several financial Tranches
Scooter: some of those haven't occurred but are waiting for the right moment
Scooter: The idea was to plant several economic explosions in locations that will take off in their economy, invigorating the private sector and foreign investment
Scooter: For example, agriculture
Scooter: that was one of the targets
Scooter: At one time, Agriculture was a far bigger contributor to their GDP than oil
Scooter: it was close to 37%
Scooter: this had an impact on my opinion as to the price point to open.
Scooter: Saleh has said the real value of the IQD is around $1.30
Scooter: the 2009 budget, as evidenced by the Tables of increases from their budget, came in at $1.17
Scooter: 2010 -- $2.05
Scooter: 2011 -- $1.27
Scooter: Now that combines both the operational budgets and Investment budgets.
Scooter: So to answer your question my friend
Scooter: $0.35 ?
Scooter: I don't think so -- I think there's another plan that hasn't been seen or discussed in the forums
Scooter: and they will be paying for this RV in some other way
Scooter: Just my opinion
Sam I Am: ok
Sam I Am: and the time frame is .... whenever?
Scooter: Who knows
Scooter: I can show you documents from the IMF
Scooter: that indicated the structural changes were to occur at the same time as the parliamentary elections of 2010
Scooter: Nobody knows -- but they are behind scheduled -- that is for certain.
Scooter: it could be June 2013
Scooter: when the Iraqi Banking reforms are scheduled for conclusion
Scooter: nobody knows
Scooter: but remember, the banking industry and governments are the BEST at misdirection
Scooter: they will have you look to left and sneak through the back door and steal the cookie jar.
Sam I Am: Okay, one last question
Scooter: I have one more in me
Sam I Am: What is your advice for dinar speculators and potential investors?
Scooter: I can't provide any advice as I'm not a licensed financial planner
Scooter: I will say this again --- there's far too much INTEL out there being provided, with the majority being incorrect
Scooter: However, this is a great opportunity !!!!!
Scooter: I won't deny that but I still treat this as something riskier than a penny stock
Scooter: because it is.
Scooter: and nobody knows what's going to happen for the exception of about 3 - 5 people
Scooter: in the world.
Scooter: but the good news is that there's strong tangible evidence that suggest the RV will occur.,
Scooter: Logic dictates that it's required sooner rather than later
Scooter: That's it
Sam I Am: Anything else you'd like to add?
Scooter: I don't think so --- I think I've bantered about for the last hour and a half
Scooter: I'm good!
Sam I Am: Okay, thanks for your time and all of your research
Scooter: I just hope this was helpful !
Scooter: You are so welcome Sam
Posted by Sam I Am at 2:32 PM