Monday, July 14, 2014

Guru Updates

Just thought it would be fun to let everybody who is still paying attention to dinar events know what the gurus are saying, now that Iraq is in such dire straits.


7-7-2014   Kaperoni    Article: "Political blocs warns of blocking the formation of the government for "a long time" because of the insistence of Maliki confirms: Star is not the most likely candidate" Maliki has set the stage...stating he will not give up the right to a 3rd term which is really saying.."I am not leaving no matter what" unless toes up. The reality is everyone...nobody wants to admit it, but this is a real bad situation...not only for Iraq but for us as investors...when these types of events happen (terrorists taking over a province) or Maliki (refusing to leave)...the end result is not only an escalation in violence but the destruction of years of hard work rebuilding the infrastructure.  The [longer] this continues the more damage is done. And this is a setback. In reality, If Maliki squats, and the violence escalates we could be looking at a year or more to restore what had been accomplished prior. I wish there was better news..but this is not good news and we all need to be aware and should watch it closely as it is significant to our investment. I am keeping my fingers crossed and hoping for the best!
Some of my readers get mad at me because I don't come down on Kap any more than I do, but this is a good example of why.  Although we obviously disagree on the potential of the dinar as an investment, I will at least give honour where honour is due.  Kap is one of the very few gurus willing to point out the risk and obvious negative circumstances investors face.


This guy hasn't been right about anything in the three yeas I've been blogging, but he might get this one right.  Nothing in Iraq is ever done in a timely fashion.  As for the swift movement, maybe if we send them a shipment of prune juice.

7-6-2014  wmawhite   It appears to only support Maliki has is within the SoL...the rest of the NA don't want him, the Sunnis don't want him, the Kurds don't want him...and he bought a $3 million home for his family within the last 3 weeks in Qatar...maybe he knows.

Funny how nobody wants Maliki but they can't seem to get rid of the guy.  People have been saying that Maliki is history for as long as I've known about Maliki, and he's still there.  Don't hold your breath waiting for his exit.

7-6-2014 Tlar    There is a lot of confusion going on now with some articles offering hope then other articles saying there are disputes within the coalition and even more saying they won't be ready. I feel very comfortable that this is the finest snow job I have ever been witness to. The intention of which is to keep the SOL and Maliki in the dark. IMO they are ready this time just as Allawi stated a couple of days ago. With all the confusion being spread, the SOL has no clue how to react or plan. That's exactly the way it is supposed to be IMO. Keep them guessing and then lower the "boom". Walk in and vote them into oblivion and quickly leave. We will just have to see on Tuesday whether what have been witnessing in the press is just smoke.

As I pointed out recently tlar is way out there in lala land.  As we now see the press is far more reliable than gurus like tlar.

7-6-2014 Hub   ... have three close very close people that know more than we do...real...time business currency business info and they were in on the kuwait rv and they know the talk and talk the walk...the real information is the dinar has been revalued.   two major contacts, yes. ...some of my people are all oil people in iraq, iran, kuwait, saudi, and the other mid east oil people...these people are a special contact which is a currency broker, made a killing on the revaluation of the kuwait dinar  ..... the dinar has had a value for 200 years and will retain the 1955 it was $2.55 and in 1990 it was $3.22. ...the main outlook is the dinar will has too to maintain the history...and so we are waiting for it to happen. i dont know what it will revalue at...

A common flaw in the thinking of dinar investors and gurus is that a currency has a natural value that it gravitates toward, kind of like with gasses such as helium rising above oxygen, or chlorine settling below oxygen.  But currencies don't have a "natural" value.  They have a value that is determined by the unique history, money supply, and GDP of the country that they represent.  China has a huge economy but their currency is valued at around 16 cents, yet smaller countries like Bahrain with a GDP of only about $25 billion have a currency worth about $2.50.  Nothing causes depreciation of a currency more than war, and countries like Germany, Japan, Vietnam, and Iraq have currencies that depreciated in value because of war.  Germany redenominated to bring their value back, but Japan and Vietnam left their currency valued very low and just went on with life.  If Iraq decided to bing their currency's value back to where it was over 30 years ago then they will do it just like Germany did, with a redenomination or "lop". 


7-6-2014   Chattel  -  The Kurds had announced in advance their intention to leave after being sworn in if there was no declaration of the PM nominee in advance...there is a procedural "game" being played out between the SLC and the National Alliance and the anti - Maliki forces are watching it closely. BUT, who can know what is "in play", Kurdish independence, oil sales, or does any of this have any effect upon our liquidity event? there is no "RV manual", this is all " unploughed " ground.

Unploughed [sic] ground?  I thought Kuwait RV'd?  I thought Germany RV'd?  I thought Iraq was going to create millionaires just like those two did?  LOL!!!  Chattels is right, an RV that creates millionaires has never occurred, and for one simple reason - it doesn't make sense.  Why would a country want their currency to go up substantially in value thereby making it more expensive for other countries to do business with them?

But all of this was topped off by Breitling's rambling geopolitical history lecture where he claimed that Hitler devalued the deutsche mark, that Donald Rumsfeld said that the US sold Saddam WMD, that the US put Saddam in charge as a buffer against Iran, and that Tulsa brings in more money than LA.  A few minutes with Google will reveal that Hitler died three years before the introduction if the deutsche mark, that Donald Rumsfeld never said anything remotely like "we sold WMD to Iraq", that Saddam came up through the ranks of the Baath party in Iraq and was in fact the leader of Iraq before our ally the Shah was deposed in Iran, and that LA's GDP is roughly $750 billion while Tulsa's is roughly $50 billion.  (LA's population is roughly 10 times that of Tulsa, so even going by GDP per capita the numbers don't favour Tulsa.) 

What better reminder does one need of the folly of following gurus?

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Adam Montana's Take on the Crisis in Iraq

Recently "Adam Montana" sought to console his troubled minions with a word of encouragement about their "investment".  Below you will find a few of his comments followed by my commentary in bold.


Good morning everyone!
25th of June, 2014 - the situation in Iraq isn't one of peace
and tranquility just yet, but I get the feeling things are coming
to a head and it's not turning out that bad. Quite frankly, I feel
that if things were to take a drastic turn for the worst we would
be seeing it by now.
Not turning out that bad?  Excuse me??!!?  Their second largest city has been taken over by a terrorist group called ISIS that also stole millions from the bank there to further fund their organization.  So many Iraqi troops deserted that Maliki had to call on Iraqi citizens to join the fight.  Take a look at this map and tell me things aren't that bad.  About 1/3 of the country has been overrun by these militants.  

So here's the current scoop. ISIL is holding on and making waves
still, but it's starting to look like they are stretching themselves
thin and that's never a good thing for an attacking party. Jordan
is aligning forces with Iraq, and it makes sense for them to do so
because if they allow Iraq to fall victim to these attacks, they are
not too far from suffering the same fate. Other countries (such as
the US) are being slow to join, but it's getting apparent that Iraq
will get some help sooner or later, and likely before anything can
happen that would destroy Iraq's recent progress.
I got news for you, pal.  Iraq's progress has already been destroyed.  Ten years' worth of political progress establishing a democratic presence in the region is virtually dead in the water.  Listen to these quotes from Kurdish president Barzani. 
“Iraq is obviously falling apart"
“The time is here for the Kurdistan people to determine their future and the decision of the people is what we are going to uphold.”
“Now we are living [in] a new Iraq, which is different completely from the Iraq that we always knew, the Iraq that we lived in ten days or two weeks ago.”
“After the recent events in Iraq, it has been proved that the Kurdish people should seize the opportunity now – the Kurdistan people should now determine their future.”

These are not the words of a man who thinks that this is just a temporary setback for the new Iraq and the GOI.  These are the words of a man who sees that Kurdistan has been a good sport and given the new Iraq a chance, and now sees that it has failed and the time has come for Kurdish independence.   Have a listen to this discussion on NPR with four experts on the region.

You would think that with all this madness and chaos and "OMG the
sky is falling!" going on over there, the currency would be plummeting
back to the 4000:1 rate it was at a decade ago… but that's not the case.
In fact, the stability was only in question for less than a week, when the
dinar "wobbled".

The IQD was never valued at 4000:1.  That was the street value of the old Saddam dinar.  The IQD has never been valued at more than about 1500:1

Turki / Central Bank states that despite the current events, the dinar is
and will remain stable. Not only that, they have the ability to maintain
any rate without a roof. (That says "float" to me!)

Surely you jest, Wolfy.  The IQD would plummet if it were allowed to freely float.  A country facing the possibility of secession and war with such deep sectarian division doesn't exactly inspire a lot of international confidence.  And the current exchange regime that the dinar is on is a managed float, which means that they manage it in order to maintain exchange rate stability.  How does one profit from a policy like that?
(Yes, all this in spite of the "doom and gloom" the lame-stream media
would have you believe!)

Yeah, right!  This is all just misinformation from the media who is owned by the cabal.  Unfortunately the gullible are likely to lap this up and hold onto their dinar, but thankfully many are wising up and moving on.

People like Adam Montana will never come out publicly as negative on the dinar "investment" for one simple reason.  They need people to believe in order to keep their revenue stream going.  Take if from me, there's not much money in telling people the truth about the dinar.



Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Happy 4th of July!

The other day I was browsing through dinar sites and caught a glipse of this article. 


Uncomfortable Independence Day Questions

Here comes another Fourth of July - a good time to ask some serious questions – and ponder just how “free” we really are:

* Why is it ok to celebrate violent resistance to a government by our wig-wearing ancestors, but “extremist” to say anything negative about government today?
* If people can’t be trusted to govern themselves, how is it that some people can be trusted to govern others?
* What’s so great about taxation with representation?
* Has anyone ever showed you the “social contract”?
* If we’re so “free,” why can’t we even celebrate our “freedom” by lighting off a few firecrackers and bottle rockets in our own backyards? They’re illegal in most states these days for ordinary citizens to even possess – let alone use.
* If the Constitution is the supreme law of the land, why do the “interpretations” of that law by judges supersede the plain language of the Constitution?
* Why do civilian cops have military ranks? Sergeants, captains – even four-star “generals” . . . some of them have military flair (AKA “fruit salad”) too … as if they’d “served” in a war somewhere.
* If it’s wrong for me (an individual) to do something aggressively violent, how does it become right when a group does the same thing?
* Is morality merely a question of numbers and percentages?
* Does calling a thing by a different name change the nature of the thing? Does a cat become “not-cat” by dint of calling it “not-cat”? If it’s still a cat – no matter what I call it – how is it that taking someone else’s money (theft) becomes not-theft when it’s called “taxation”?
* If abortion is acceptable because it’s “the woman’s body” and thus, “her right to choosearrow-10x10.png”- how come a man can’t choose to do what he likes with his body? Like choosing not to wear a helmet while riding his motorcycle, for instance?
* How come there are no “senile citizen checkpoints”?
* If the “right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed,” why are the people forced to get the government’s permission to keep and bear arms?
* How is it “reasonable” to stop people en masse and at random, and force them to submit to an interrogation/search?
* Why are we forced to transact our business with privately owned banks? Why is it illegal for us to exchange value for value among ourselves?
* If you have the right to not incriminate yourself, why is it considered a criminal act to decline to fill out a federal tax form?
* Did anyone ever ask you for your “consent” to be governed? What if you do not consent?
* Why is an officer’s“safety” more important than your safety?
* If the “civil” war was fought to free the slaves, how come the commanding general of the Union Army, Ulysses S. Grant, owned a black man while he waged war on the South? (He freed the poor man eventually.)
* If corporations are “persons,” how come you can never get one on the phone – much less put “him” in prison when he defrauds you?
* Why is it ok for big cartels like Monsanto to sell genetically modified foods on their say-so that it’s ok, but a “crime” for a local farmer to sell unpasteurized milk?
* If slavery is against the law, why is it we’re compelled to work for the benefit of others?
* Shouldn’t everywhere – anywhere – be a “free speech zone”?
* If you own your home, why must you pay rent to the government every year in order to be allowed to continuearrow-10x10.png to live there?
* How come other people choosing to have sex – and choosing to have kids – imposes a financial obligation on you that’s enforceable at gunpoint, but choosing to adopt a cat and figuring out how you’ll feed him and pay for his bills is entirely your own problem?
* Why don’t school busses have to have seat belts?
* If guns are so dangerous, how come politicians are surrounded by cordons of heavily armed men?
* How did the good ol’ USA become the “homeland”?
* If you believe it’s ok to fight off a mugger, how come it’s not ok to fight off a tax collector?
* If only “Congress may declare war,” how come we’ve been “at war” (on “terror”) for going on 13 years without a congressional declaration of war?
* Why can’t DMV (or IRS) “customers” say “no thanks” to the services offered?
* How can health care be a right if someone else is forced to provide it?
* Do you suppose motorcycles would be “allowed” if they were a new inventionarrow-10x10.png?
* If you’re a free man, why must you obtain permission to travel, marry or work?
* How is eminent domaining a man off his land any different than simply stealing his land?
* Why are we forced to do business with, feed, house – even hang out – with people we’d avoid if we were free to do so?

Answer – hell, even read – these questions and you’ll come to grips with just how unfree we actually are this Farce of July. Better to stay home, wear black and mourn what we’ve lost – what some of us have freely given away – than to go through the sad pantomime of celebrating our enslavement.
Throw it in the Woods?


This strikes me as talking points from one of those "patriot" groups who think that we're a step away from living in a dictatorship or a police state because there have been restrictions placed on our freedoms.  In reality, our freedoms have always had restrictions. 
Nearly a century ago there was a case where a defendant named Charles Schenck claimed the right to freedom of speech in handing out leaflets discouraging people from submitting for the draft during WWI.  Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes stated that avoiding the draft was a criminal offense, and that encouraging such a crminal offense during a time of war presented a clear and present danger and could be punished, thereby placing established limitations on freedom of speech.  In his opinion he used the example of falsely yelling "fire" in a crowded theater to illustrate how freedom of speech is not absolute. 
People who claim that we're losing our right to freedom of speech overlook the fact that we have more rights today in this area than we did a century ago.  Can you imagine somebody today being prosecuted for voicing opposition to the draft?
People complain about taxes, but the truth is taxes are lower across the board, and the top marginal tax rate today is less than half of what it was during the 70s.
People complain about their 2nd amendment rights being taken away, but gun ownership is still legal.  True, there are restrictions on gun ownership, but there are also restrictions on vehicle ownership and operation.  We don't complain about that because we understand the need for public safety provided by those restrictions.  Why should it be easier to own and operate a gun than it is to own and operate a vehicle?
My point is that many of these claims that our rights and freedoms are being taken away are based on perceptions, and not facts.  Having said that I'd now like to address a few of the points in the article.
  •  I don't hear anybody saying that it's extremist to say anything negative about our government.  I criticize the government all the time and I've never been called an extremist.
  • Of course nobody has ever seen the social contract, because it isn't a written contract.  It's a concept behind the relationship between the governmental authority and the citizen who gives up a certain amount of freedom in exchange for the services that the government provides.  We accept the contract without being conscious of its existence, but if it didn't exist we would certainly notice because we would have anarchy. 
  • Fireworks are deemed illegal in many states because they are dangerous.  DUH!  Sure, they're fun, but talk to your local fire department about their experiences at New Year's and July 4.  Does that mean that we don't live in a free country?  Of course not.  It means that we're tired of irresponsible people posing a threat to our neighborhoods with fireworks and we've passed laws to protect our property.
  • The "plain language" of the constitution isn't always so plain.  For example, the 8th amendment says that cruel and unusual punishment isn't allowed.  Now how do we interpret that?  Is capital punishment cruel?  Some people think so, and as a result we've tried to make it painless.  It's certainly severe, regardless of whether or not you consider it cruel.  But what about unusual?  It's definitely not unusual, because it has been practiced for thousands of years in virtually every civilization.  So does the expression "cruel and unusual punishment" refer to punishment that is either cruel or unusual, or both cruel and unusual?  (We have the same dilemma with the wording for impeachment because of "high crimes and misdemeanors")  If it refers to "either" then perhaps we should do away with capital punishment, but if it refers to both then we shouldn't necessarily end it because while it might be considered cruel by some people it certainly isn't unusual.  Language by its very nature is often vague and subject to interpretation.  The founding fathers knew that and that's why they built into our constitution a mechanism to deal with this issue.  Another reason we have judges to interpret the constitution is to provide checks and balances within out government.  For example, if congress passes a law that is unconstitutional, we have a mechanism in place to address that called judicial review.  The courts review the law and determine its constitutionality.  And if the court gets it wrong, their ruling can be reversed in the future by another court.  Such was the case with capital punishment.  For ten years there were no executions in the US, but prior court rulings were reversed and it resumed in 1977.
  • I don't see the connection between a woman having an abortion and a man wearing a helmet while riding a motorcycle.  Abortion is legal because of a Supreme Court ruling (which I don't agree with, by the way) and motorcycle laws are established by states.  A better argument in my opinion would be why should a woman have the right to terminate a pregnancy without the father's approval, but if she decides not to terminate the father can't force her to do so and then is required to provide for the child after it's born.  To me that is the inequity.  Still, how does that support the assertion that we don't live in a free country?
  • It's okay to fight off a mugger because they're breaking the law and presenting you with the threat of severe bodily harm or death.  It's not okay to fight off a tax collector because they're enforcing the law and there is no threat of bodily harm involved.

Okay, I think that's enough.  Basically this is just a good exercise in critical thinking.  What sounds good to some paranoid anti-government people when they first read through something like this fails to hold up under closer scrutiny.  The US is still a free country.  Are there restrictions on those freedoms?  Certainly there are, but we can still come and go as we please, and we can still criticize our government and vote to change our leadership if we don't approve of the job that they're doing.  For all of its faults the USA is still the greatest country in world history IMO, and hopefully will remain so for many years to come. 

Happy Independence Day!!!