Wednesday, November 5, 2014

November Update

Not much to report this month other than a couple of articles and a really stupid guru comment.

The article that seemed to generate the most interest was this one.

"A few days ago announced a committee of economy and investment in the Iraqi parliament, that the deletion of zeros from the Iraqi currency will be working by next year (2015).

It is noteworthy that the subject of the deletion of zeros from the Iraqi currency is not new, it was the Iraqi government project about deleting three zeros from the Iraqi dinar, to reduce inflation suffered by the Iraqi currency, but it has been postponed. He was scheduled to testify in 2011 to delete the three zeros from denominations of Iraqi currency, so that it becomes the new dinar, equal to 1000 Old dinars.
What does that mean?

First, it is necessary to clarify the fact that the abolition of zeros any currency in the world, does not mean in any way an improvement in the exchange rate, and this in turn leads to another conclusion is that the deletion of zeros does not mean as well as any improvement in the Iraqi citizen's income, it does not mean to address the many
economic problems suffered by the Iraqi economy. If that is the case, for all the world's governments scrapped zeros from their currencies. The deletion will not address inflation and will not contribute to the aggravation, and will enhance the economic reform, that if there is any economic reform originally.

The only goal is to facilitate the buying and selling processes, and the mitigation of carrying large quantities of banknotes, and perhaps give a positive psychological boost for Iraqis, so that they feel, even if only from the door of the feeling, that the purchasing power of the dinar, has become the best. In any case, we must clarify here is the fact that the Central Bank of Iraq, the authority is independent of the government is not entitled to state intervention work."


The article clearly states that:

  1. The new dinar will be equal to 1000 old dinars. That means that it will be valued at $.86. That would be a lop, folks.
  2. The deletion of the zeros doesn't mean in any way an improvement in the exchange rate or in the Iraqi citizen's income. That would be a lop too, folks.
  3. This isn't being done to fix their economic problems. If they could fix their economic problems by removing zeros then every country would do it. While that sounds sooo obvious it's amazing how many dinarians can't seem to comprehend the fact that you can't revalue your way into prosperity.
  4. The only goal is to facilitate buying and selling. "Facilitate" means it will be easier, which is what a redenomination (lop) does. It makes cash transactions and accounting easier. They go on to say that they hope that this will provide a psychological boost to use a currency with a higher value, even if there's no true increase in purchasing power.
The article concludes with a reference to the dinar returning to its glorious past (how many times have we heard gurus talking about the dinar returning to its glorious past through a revaluation?), but that this is "false joy, nothing else". In other words, the redenomination will give the people a good feeling, but it's only a feeling. There's no true increase.

Read the article here.





A November Douchie is awarded to Frank Villa (Frank26) who stated his opinion that the algorithm has been released and is making its way around the world. Folks, this line is almost three years old. Take a look at this post I did in December of 2011. There's no algorithm, no activation, and no RV. The IQD is stuck at 1166 to the dollar and will probably remain there until it is replaced by the new dinar. The only thing in the system that's making its way around the world is pumper BS.






Another article getting a lot of attention was this one that says the initiative to revalue and delete zeros from the Iraqi Dinar will be delayed for five years because of the political and security situation in Iraq. Of course there are some who will point to the word "revalue" and insist that it's not a redenomination or "lop" that they're talking about but an increase in purchasing power from a revaluation. But as many of us can attest, you have to go by the description of the process and not the particular verbage resulting from the translation of Arabic into English. The process they've been talking about for at least four years is a typical redenomination that you can read about in any financial or investment dictionary. You don't delete zeros, issue new currency, and remove the old currency from circulation in a revaluation. Even if they botch the translation the description tells you very clearly what they intend to do.





Removing Three Zeros - Brad, Charlie, and
Michael Teadt do the perp walk (Sept. 2012)
But the good news from October in my opinion was the sentencing of Brad Huebner and Charlie Emmenecker from the BH Group. Brad got seven years and Charlie got three for dinar fraud and related charges. It seems there is at least some justice in this world. Apparently Brad is still in denial, stating that "one day in the near future the Iraqi government would revalue its currency and everyone’s investment would pay off". Unbelievable! Their partner in crime Rudy Coenen received a five year sentence back in September for his role in the ruse. Now if we can just get the justice department to follow up with a dozen or so more indictments.

http://www.toledoblade.com/Courts/2014/10/31/Local-men-sentenced-in-dinar-case.html

http://www.nbc24.com/news/story.aspx?id=1116530#.VFOaKPnF9WN







Tuesday, October 14, 2014

October Update

It's been a month since I did a post, so I thought I should write something.  The truth is there really isn't much to talk about.  The "war" against ISIS isn't going well, but even if we could instantly eradicate them it wouldn't bring about any increase in the official value of the IQD.  The leadership in Iraq is still trying to figure out who is in charge of what and how they're going to proceed from here.  And of course the gurus are still saying "any day now".

I've been asked to comment on a couple of things.  First is this Dave Schmidt guy.  I've already given him two Douchebag of the Month awards.  The guy is a serious contender for the 2014 Dinar Douchebag of the Year.  For anybody who is on the fence about him check out the links below.

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2013/10/october-update.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2014/03/douche-of-month.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2014/04/another-douchie-for-davey.html


The second thing is the Zimbabwe dollar.  Somebody emailed me telling me that the gurus are pumping it again and that it's a scam.  NO KIDDING!?!?!?!  I know the fact that the ZWD has a ton of zeros excites people at the possibilities of a revaluation, but you have to realize that the currency is valued that low for a reason.  NOBODY WANTS IT!  Nobody except for gullible speculators, that is.  From Wikipedia:

"Despite attempts to control inflation by legislation, and three redenominations (in 2006, 2008 and 2009), use of the Zimbabwean dollar as an official currency was effectively abandoned on 12 April 2009 due to the skyrocketing inflation."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_dollar

Just because something has a very low price doesn't mean it's undervalued.  Toothpicks are pretty cheap too.  Why not stock up on them?  Maybe the Central Bank of Toothpicks will raise the value on them and you'll get rich!  It makes about as much sense as buying Zimbabwe dollars.  As one honest ZWD dealer says "ZIMBABWE CURRENCY IS DEFUNCT AND NOT LEGAL TENDER ANYWHERE.". 


In closing, I'd like to direct you to a great post.  Jay Adkisson from Forbes did an article called "You Can't Fix Stupid - The Iraqi Dinar Scam Lives" a couple of years ago, and every month or so he updates it with his thoughts on the dinar investment.  This month he said, among other things:

"Sometimes currencies lose their value to the point where the mere size of the bills means they have become impractical. Thus, if you’re having to pay for a pack of smokes with a Dinar-10,000 bill, things are obviously out-of-whack, and the government has to re-denominate the currency so that the folks using the currency don’t lose all confidence in it and start trading in some other currency. That is what is happening to the Dinar.

But re-denomination of a currency does not, repeat NOT, change its value relative to other currencies. What actually happens with a redomination is that the government simply issues new bills, knocking a few zeros off, and then sets a deadline by which the old bills become worthless unless they are traded in by that date. So, the local resident might take in their old Dinar-10,000 bills and exchange them for new Dinar-100 bills."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jayadkisson/2012/07/30/you-cant-fix-stupid-the-iraqi-dinar-scam-lives/  (Give the page a minute to load, and then scroll down to the bottom right before the comments.)

Now, lest anybody conclude that Jay talks about the dinar like I do, I assure you it's the other way around.  Experts like Jay and John Jagerson are responsible for my epiphany.  I learned what I know from them, from a few sharp guys who frequently comment on this blog, and from my own research.  My thanks once again to Jay for his frank analysis of this scam.  Until next time.

 







 

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Three Years

My how time flies.  Three years ago this month I started this blog.  In those three years a lot has happened.  A few dinar douchebags have been arrested and convicted.  Many have been exposed as frauds.  Some have disappeared.  Others have just tweaked their presentation and kept on going.  Many people have caught on and sold their dinar.  Some have actually joined me in the cause.  And then there's Iraq.  Coalition forces left at the end of 2011.  Shabibi was removed as the governor of the CBI in October of 2012.  President Talibani was disabled by a stroke two months later.  Now in 2014 the terrorist organization ISIS has taken over about a third of Iraq, and it appears that the US is heading back into Iraq to some extent. 

Yes, a lot has happened but one thing hasn't happened.  The much heralded RV.  Oh sure, the dinar's value went from $.0008547 to $.0008576 (or 1170:1 to 1166:1) a couple of years ago but that's not the RV that the gurus were hyping and the hopeful were waiting for.  That RV will never happen.

When I started the blog a lot of people got mad at me for calling gurus "douchebags" and insisting that nobody would get rich by owning dinar.  Since then the hatred has waned as people started waking up.  Today almost all of the sites are bashing gurus to one extent or another.  In fact I hear some of what I've said being repeated in conference calls and posted in forums. 

Since September of 2011 this blog has had 850,000 hits.  By my estimate it should hit 1 million next summer if the blog is still up.  Considering how little traffic I had the first few weeks that's just amazing to me.  A lot of that is due to the word of mouth advertising done by my readers, and for that I am truly grateful. 

I have started another blog and have moved on for the most part, but this experience will always be with me.  The one thing I've proven to myself is that one person can make a difference.  You should never be afraid to respond when you see an injustice taking place.  You should never refuse to try just because the odds are against you.  When you hear yourself saying "why doesn't somebody do something about this?" stop and ask yourself if you might be that somebody.  And don't ever be intimidated into silence, thinking that you don't know enough to have a valid opinion or to voice those opinions.  I have learned more since I started the blog than I did before I started it, but I started with what I knew and proceeded from there.

I'm certainly not taking all of the credit.  John Jagerson was the voice in the wilderness two years before I came along.  Others like DaveD and Brian Simpson were debunking guru BS on various forums for years.  Marcus Curtis revamped his pro-RV blog and denounced the dinar scam two years ago.  Baghdad Invest joined in the fun for awhile, even trapping the gurus with a fake RV story which they later admitted was a hoax to see how many gurus "confirmed" their intel.  They've now returned to their true passion which is updating people on the events in Iraq.  We wish them well.

All of us have contributed to the decline in dinar sales and dinar site traffic.  All of us have been vindicated over time.  All of us have helped to curb the hype and irrational exuberance that was prevalent in the dinar world a few years ago.

As for the dinar, I'm afraid the future's not too bright.  If it survives at all the value is likely to remain below 1/10 of a penny.  I still maintain that nobody will get rich from owning the IQD or the VND.  You will probably lose money on both.  If you haven't figured that out by now I can't help you. 

Thanks again everybody, and best wishes to all!