http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000346909
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Addressing the hype surrounding the Iraqi dinar to prevent more people from being misled about this investment.
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Thursday, January 15, 2015
CNBC Video About the Dinar Scam
Just learned about this from Kenny Lejkowski Sr. Thanks, bud!
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000346909
Everybody should have caught on by now, but just in case a few are still on the fence this should make it clear. Currencies don't increase in value by 100,000%. Have a good weekend.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000346909
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That article backs up everything I've ever said regarding who is in charge of the exchange rate: The CBI. That's it.
ReplyDeleteThe after-effects of a major RV are going to be gigantic, and I won't even attempt to spell all that out... but regardless, the bottom line is simple. ONE organization is responsible for the exchange rate, and that organization is the CBI. Plain and simple.
Once they pull the trigger, a LOT of crap is going to hit a lot of fans, and a lot of us will be scrambling to make the most of the situation.
I'm stoked to be in the group I'm in - I have a LOT of confidence in my professionals, and I'm looking forward to the things I'll get to do with the VIP group.
Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/194512-adam-montana-january-14-2015/page-4#ixzz3OvxBJ3s5
If Adam is stoked then so am I!!!!! Screw your facts Sam lol. I hope Adam is still letting sign ups for his vip before its too late.
Isn't it patently obvious to his readers what Montana is all about? How many times does he hold his "last VIP sign-up period"? How many times does he threaten to close VIP forever only to open it up when some "exciting" news comes along (and, of course, he determines whether the news is "exciting")? How many times does he warn people this is their last and only chance? The guy is as transparent as they come. He doesn't even make much of an effort to hide it. His site and weekly chats all but scream "scam" but it never registers with a good portion of his followers. That guy could probably come out and publicly declare the dinar RV and his site a scam and he'd still have a handful of followers that wouldn't believe it.
DeleteYesterday he claimed to be part owner of the Green Bay Packers. What he didn't mention is that anybody can be for a couple hundred bucks since they're publicly owned.
DeleteIf there ever was a single phrase summarizing the entire theme of how folks get sucked into this scam its "Screw your facts". Why base decisions on facts when you can base them on fantasies, myths, and wishful thinking instead!
Delete"ONE organization is responsible for the exchange rate, and that organization is the CBI." this is true, but incomplete. The exchange rate in any transaction, for anything (dollars for euros, or dollars for apples, or ...) is whatever is agreeable to both parties. The CBI can not force any other entity to use any particular rate. Note that even banks inside Iraq are not exchanging at the 1188 or so (1166+2%) IQD per 1 USD the CBI would ike to see, but more like 1280 IQD to 1 USD. The power the CBI has to control the rate is that they are virtually the entire market for IQD. That is due to the vast majority of exchanges being oil dollars from the MOF being turned into IQD to spend in the government budget, and IQD being turned back into USD to buy imports, all of which go through the CBI. Unlike the dollar that is traded all over the world without going through the Fed. Thus the USD is a floating currency since the exchange rate at any instances is whatever you can buy or sell it for on the global market.
So whatever rate the CBI ACTUALLY OFFERS drives a peg into the rate landscape, and then others that are buying from them offer a rate relative to or around that peg (thus the name of this type of currency as "pegged"). The rate the CBI can actually offer is of course limited simply by the ratio of the money supply to their reserves, thus giving them about 15% (not 100,000%) headroom. That is the one essential fact anyone thinking about buying IQD needs to understand. Especially if you are buying it at 20% over the CBIs offered rate.
During one of these reports, if they could just spend 90 seconds explaining the absurdity and mathematical impossibility of a massive revaluation, it would go a long way to shutting this scam down. It certainly wouldn't end it because the clowns would continue to talk gibberish to confuse their followers but it would strike the common sense nerve in many of these people.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to wonder if the dinar rv will ever happen. Could it be a scam?! I'm willing to wait another two life sentences. LMAO!!! So sad these yum yums......
ReplyDeleteFrom http://www.quatloos.com/Q-Forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=9280&p=182937#p182937
ReplyDeleteRe: Any Day Now, the Dinar RV Story
Postby Gregg » Sun Jan 18, 2015 2:05 am
OH OH OH, I forgot to mention something else.
The thing that makes the whole RV almost plausible to people who don't think it through is the supposed wealth of Iraq and the ability of their oil sales to finance the RV.
With the Iraq M2 at about 85 trillion, iraq annual oil exports were $78 billion (2012) it would take upwards of 1,000 years for the oil to finance a 1-1 exchange rate. The guru range of RV estimates range from 10 cents to $35 with the consensus seeming to be between 1-1 to $3.60. So even the minimalist fantasy would take 100 years of EVERY PENNY of oil revenue and the higher estimates would take geological timescales to realize. The oil obviously won't hold out long enough even for the lower numbers and that 2012 oil revenue number figures $80/bbl prices.
Often when you read the guru analysis they also factor in major increases in Iraqi production which if actually happened would further erode the price per barrel and somewhere in there you have to find a break even point. Currently ANY increase in production is likely to have substantial impact on the price it brings as some OPEC countries are almost frantically calling for production cuts to stabilize falling prices. My tip of the tongue guess at current Iraqi oil revenue is about $40 billion annual rate, and their budget is $75 billion which is could start depleting their foreign reserves that support the current 1166:1 exchange rate. What this means is that Iraq is going to have to stop growing their money supply MB, M1 and M2 could start to contract OR the rate which has held steady for 5 years could start dropping (growing, its a backwards number) soon which just might set off a panic in guruland.
Finally, at any time Iraq could follow through on their stated intention to replace their currency with new notes sans 3 zeros, making all those notes stashed in trailer parks nationwide worthless if not traded for the new ones, and doing that could be very hard and involve actually going to Iraq to do so.
Hey F8. I don't see how their budget deficit will deplete the CBIs foreign reserves disproportionately to a drop in their money supply (assuming that is what you meant). If imports were to exceed exports (a trade deficit) then both the money supply and the CBI's foreign reserves will go down, just like with a trade surplus the both go up. But since imports are financed mostly by oil revenue I suspect imports will fall as well. But just a guess. To deal with the budget shortfall the GOI can of course cut their budget and I suspect some of that will occur.
ReplyDeleteTo make up for the rest the MOF will I think have to issue bonds in USD to sell on the open market, though the terms will have to be pretty attractive to get any buyers. Proceeds from such bonds will flow through the MOF and CBI etc just like oil revenue. They could also issue bonds in IQD, which would be bought locally in Iraq. Maybe there are enough wealthy people or banks or whatever in Iraq to make a dent here and if so this does not change the money supply but just transfers more of it to the GOI to spend in its budget.
But if the CBI buys them, then that will increase the money supply without a corresponding increase in foreign reserves (this is exactly what the Fed did with QE) since the CBI just issues IQD to make the purchase. They have a little headroom here but not that much. Without any cuts they need to make up at least 30B USD worth, and even 8B USD worth (8.8T IQD) in bonds would increase the money supply by 10%. They could maintain the current rate at that level, but it would use up 1/2 to 2/3 of their headroom that I think they want to maintain as a weapon against possible inflation (i.e. allowing them to raise the exchange rate in inflation becomes an issue). They are in a tough spot for sure.