Well I found one man who has discussed the dinar at length who is indeed qualified to discuss this investment, but some of you probably won't like what he has to say. His name is John Jagerson. He runs a website called Learning Markets, and his videos were included on one of the first posts I did back in September. Recently he commented on my blog which frankly surprised me. I replied and invited him to participate in a brief discussion for my readers which he agreed to do. I may not agree with John on everything, but I respect his credentials and his opinions and welcome his thoughts on investing in the IQD.Sam: I appreciate your taking the time to answer a few questions for us. Could you give us a brief bio with your credentials?
John: I graduated from Utah Valley University with a degree in Business Administration where I emphasized in accounting and finance. I later completed the PLD at Harvard that has a strong international business focus. I have spent most of my career as an entrepreneur, which led me in two directions that eventually converged to form my current occupation. The first direction was to become involved in private equity (AKA venture and angel capital), which gave me experience in investment and risk analysis. The second was my experience (early in my career) importing products and equipment from Asia. While I was doing that I was frequently hedging currency risk and the currency-trading bug bit me. I haven’t turned back.
In 2003 I left entrepreneurship briefly and went to work with Investools, which was a roll-up of several online companies focused on investor education and information. Investools later acquired the options-brokerage thinkorswim (Barrons’ #1 rated), which was later acquired by TDAmeritrade after I left the company. I was a Vice President at the firm and was responsible for content, training, and client education. Working at thinkorswim Group I had the opportunity to get to know how individual investors work. This gave me a lot of insight into the biggest mistakes they make as well as the commonalities among successful traders.
For a brief period I was also a principle for a small CTA (NFA registered) focusing on forex trading, but left the industry when regulation changes in the U.S. pushed so many domestic traders overseas. I currently still write two option advisory letters that have done well. I ended 2011 profitably, which is “pretty good” in my book even if I didn’t blow the doors off.
I have written three books published by McGraw Hill. Two of these were about the international currency market or “Forex”. The third is on gold investing. I am currently writing a book on the coming (in my opinion) bond market collapse. I regularly write and record videos for online publications including Nasdaq.com, Scottrade, International Stock Exchange (ISE), LearningMarkets.com, Mint (an Intuit company) and Alpari among others.
OK that was not brief and I apologize for that but I thought it would be helpful to make sure that people wondering about the dinar know that I am not just speculating. I have experience in this business and I can show them how to find real information for themselves.
Sam: That's quite all right. Have you reported on other redenominations that were pumped as big profit opportunities?
Sam: That's quite all right. Have you reported on other redenominations that were pumped as big profit opportunities?
John: Yes and no. I have reported on RVs and RDs in the past, but the dinar is an unusual situation that is being pumped unlike anything I have seen before. Everyone in the business knows that RVs and RDs are virtually impossible to trade so pumping would have just been seen as nonsense. The IQD RV is being pumped successfully because they are using it to scam non-professionals who don’t know how the currency market works.
I was “introduced” to the dinar RV by a friend who asked me what I thought. I told him RVs don’t work that way and that it sounded like a “rain maker” scam, but he invested anyway. I did a little investigation into how this scam was working and starting writing about it in 2008. I felt like this was a good thing to take a stand on since so many service men and women are being taken advantage of by the scammers.
I have written about other redenominations (Turkey, Mexico, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Germany, Japan, China, Kuwait, Iraq, and Vietnam) and revaluations (China, Japan & Switzerland). Both redominations and revaluations happen but none of them have or could work like dinar-RV investors think. – I have also written about other investor scams like advance-fee frauds, target date funds, HYIPs, and mail-order bullion dealers.
Sam: I'm sure a lot of my readers are saying "how can you call the dinar a scam? I bought dinar at BOA or Chase". How do you respond?
John: It is legal to exchange currencies with a service bureau or a bank in the U.S. There are still a few that will even exchange the dinar. However, that is not the same as advising that this is a “good investment opportunity.” That is the scam. The currency is just paper issued by the Iraqi government.
Sam: You say the IQD hasn't revalued since 2003, but many investors will tell you that they have doubled their money since they purchased.
John: A real RV is the result of intentional action by the central bank. Most currencies fluctuate in value over time without any interference from the bank. It is definitely possible to have bought the dinar at some point over the last few years and to be in a profitable position right now but that was not the result of an intentional RV. The real question is whether the dinar can continue to appreciate versus the dollar now?
Whenever I hear this I get pretty skeptical though. Where is the proof? There are plenty of folks who can show they bought between 1500 and 1100 to the dollar, which is where the official rate has ranged since the new series was issued, but counting costs and spread that is a far cry from a money-doubler. There was a VERY brief period in 2003 when the dinar was exchanged at over 1900 to the dollar, but I have yet to see anyone prove that they bought during those few months. Keep in mind that these aren’t my numbers. These are from the Central Bank of Iraq. I always tell people to go look it up themselves and make sure they are getting their information from the source rather than a pumper.
Sam: Can you tell us definitively how the Kuwaiti dinar redenomination unfolded?
Sam: Can you tell us definitively how the Kuwaiti dinar redenomination unfolded?
John: Stage one – Fall 1990
Iraq invades and replaces the Kuwaiti dinar with the Iraqi dinar as the “official” currency. The Kuwaiti government was essentially in exile. However, because of the way currencies were managed in the early 1990’s the official rate for the KWD never changed. The UN condemned the invasion and no one of any consequence recognized the right of Iraq to replace the government and currency of Kuwait. There are many anecdotes floating around that you could have bought the KWD for a fraction of its original value on the black-market for a few weeks during that period but I don’t know of anyone brave enough to come forward and admit (and prove) that they did it.
Stage two – Winter 1991
The U.S. led invasion and liberation of Kuwait was chaotic to say the least for money supply in Kuwait. I have again heard anecdotes of people being able to buy KWD on the black market during this period but the official exchange rate was still the same. The old Kuwaiti government was restored following the withdrawal of Iraqi troops. This is really important => Unlike Iraq, the same government, currency, central bank, money, and civil system was in place before and immediately after the Iraqi invasion.
Stage three – September 1991
The KWD was redenominated with new bills in 1991. This means that the old bills held by the public were exchanged for new bills. Sometimes redenominations are done at a ratio (referred to as “lopping”) but this one was 1:1 straight across. Theoretically it is possible (this is a big “if”) for some investors who had bought KWD on the black market during the occupation to have made a big return but there are no known institutional investors who have admitted engaging in that activity and I suspect that the few people who did it are keeping quiet since war-profiteering is generally an unpopular if not illegal thing to do.
KWD Exchange rates
The KWD has been pegged to a basket of currencies (dominated by the dollar) or the dollar itself since 1975. Since the mid-1980s when the dollar was released to float more freely the KWD has had an exchange rate that has ranged between $2.78 and $3.10. This includes the period of the Iraqi invasion and the U.S. invasion of Iraq in the early 2000s.
The bottom line is that if you had 1,000KWD worth $3,000 before the invasion you still had 1,000 new KWD after 1991 that was still worth about $3,000 assuming you were able to exchange your hard currency. No one profited from the invasion.
Sam: What about the claims that some people made a fortune on the KWD?
Sam: What about the claims that some people made a fortune on the KWD?
John: As I mentioned above I have heard rumors and stories about profits being made by people who were buying KWD for a few weeks on the black market in the fall and winter of 1990, but where is the proof? There is none. In any case, these stories don’t help the hopes for the Iraqi RV because the same money and government existed before and after a 6 month war in Kuwait, which is why it is even theoretically possible to have made some profits. The only thing the Iraqi dinar has in common with the pre-1990 IQD is the name. Everything else has been changed. The government, central bank, and quantity of money supply has been changed since the invasion.
Sam: Did any currency dealers profit from the Kuwaiti dinar?
John: Theoretically it was possible to profit from the KWD if you had purchased it on the black market during the Iraqi invasion. There was a brief window of time that it was possible. However, it’s a lot like saying “oh I knew Apple was going to come back so I bought it at the absolute lowest price and sold it at the highest.” That sounds great but where is the proof? Even if he did its still moot. The KWD was the same thing with the same government backing it before and after the invasion. You can pull the historical exchange rate right from the central bank’s website. The IQD is a different currency, different government backing it, different supply, etc, etc.
Sam: If a dinar guru claims that he profited from the Kuwaiti dinar would you say he's lying? Adam Montana for example made such a claim in a book he wrote.
John: Yes, but can I prove it? No, but I can’t prove he doesn’t have magic beans either. It seems extremely unlikely that he was present in Kuwait and prescient enough to buy the KWD on the street when it was available before the Americans went in. If he did it then it should be easy to prove.
Sam: Did any currency dealers profit from the Kuwaiti dinar?
John: Theoretically it was possible to profit from the KWD if you had purchased it on the black market during the Iraqi invasion. There was a brief window of time that it was possible. However, it’s a lot like saying “oh I knew Apple was going to come back so I bought it at the absolute lowest price and sold it at the highest.” That sounds great but where is the proof? Even if he did its still moot. The KWD was the same thing with the same government backing it before and after the invasion. You can pull the historical exchange rate right from the central bank’s website. The IQD is a different currency, different government backing it, different supply, etc, etc.
Sam: If a dinar guru claims that he profited from the Kuwaiti dinar would you say he's lying? Adam Montana for example made such a claim in a book he wrote.
John: Yes, but can I prove it? No, but I can’t prove he doesn’t have magic beans either. It seems extremely unlikely that he was present in Kuwait and prescient enough to buy the KWD on the street when it was available before the Americans went in. If he did it then it should be easy to prove.
Sam: To your knowledge, what is the most substantial RV in history?
John: In absolute value terms the most significant RV in history was the RV of the Chinese Yuan in 2005 that is still ongoing. The exchange rate has actually moved in favor of the yuan 31%. However, there are slim pickings for this kind of RV. Usually an RV is done to lower your currency’s value. The Bank of Japan does this periodically by budging its exchange rate down by a few percentage points that usually evaporates within a few weeks. The Swiss National Bank did it last year when they pegged to the Euro but the change was just a few percentages then as well.
The IQD has fluctuated but has not been revalued since it was reissued in 2004. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has been raising interest rates to head off inflation which probably helped protect its official peg of 1170 to the U.S. dollar. However last year, inflation started getting away from them and the unofficial exchange rate (as reported by the CBI) is now about 1200 to the dollar.
Sam: Have investors ever managed to make a profit off of a redenomination?
Sam: Have investors ever managed to make a profit off of a redenomination?
John: Its pretty tough, but it is possible. The problem is usually one of liquidity because it is really difficult to buy and sell most of these currencies that go through a redenomination. If you want to do it, the most reliable way to make money from a redenomination is to short the currency. The vast majority of redenominations lead to a currency that continues to fall. You would have made money shorting the TRY in 2005 or the MXN in 1995, which were both trading actively in the forex at the time. This problem is that this is exactly the opposite of what IQD buyers are waiting for. They believe the IQD will go up after an RD, which has pretty much never happened.
If you are wondering about making money from the actual “redenomination” process then the answer is no. A redenomination does not affect the total value of the currency. If you had 120,000 IQD that are currently worth $100USD (1,200 USD/IQD) and the dinar remonetizes tomorrow by dropping three zeroes to a new exchange rate of 1.2 IQD to the dollar then you are flat. You would have to exchange your 120,000 dinar for 120 new dinar, which are worth $.833333 each or $120 in total. A redenomination results in the same aggregate value. Outside of the costs incurred in the transaction there are no gains or losses.
Sam: Is it possible that the US Treasury will take our dinar and use them for oil credits? This is a common claim made to explain how the RV process will work.
Sam: Is it possible that the US Treasury will take our dinar and use them for oil credits? This is a common claim made to explain how the RV process will work.
John: I don’t know why they would. The Treasury has FX reserves but not in any amount that would put a dent in oil imports from Iraq in the far future. Besides that, why would spending (injecting more dinar) into the world market drive its value up? Increasing supply drives prices down not up. Secondly – and this is really important - Oil is priced in U.S. dollars and most exporters sterilize their capital flows to prevent becoming dollarized or to head off inflation and some kind of massive reserve of the dinar would make that very difficult. The last thing I always ask when this question comes up is how do they know that the Treasury has some massive dinar reserve? Where did that data come from? It didn’t come from the Treasury. Like most of these rumors and “facts” it was just made up by the scammers.
Sam: Can fractional reserve banking allow investors to cash in $2 trillion or more?
John: Not without creating a significant shift in the value of the U.S. dollar. Money supply is measured in different ways but one of these – M1, which is a measure of liquid dollars and deposits in the economy - is just over $2 Trillion now. So you would basically be doubling the liquid dollars in the market. Can a fractional system absorb that from a practical perspective? No.
Sam: Would you be willing to debate Kaperoni, Frank Villa, Medic, Breitling ... etc. on this?
John: Yes, in person or in writing. Anytime.
Just in case one of the pumpers reads this article I wanted to be very clear that I am happy to debate via writing or in person or recording or whatever any of the points we disagree on. I have offered a few times but so far no takers.
ReplyDeletejohn kaperoni would clean your clock in a debate!! lol
ReplyDeleteJohn has already extended the offer. We'll see if Kaperoni accepts.
DeleteHe he he... A guru debating this man would be like a little league kid trying to hit major league pitching. I was working in currency reserves at the Bank of England when Iraq invaded Kuwait, trust me, he's right. In theory you could have made a fortune when people who were holding KWD were panicking but finding them in any quantity wasn't possible and most of the ones physically holding them were in occupied Kuwait at the time, which aside from them having other fish to fry at the time, wasn't a happy place for a westerner to be, much less to be carrying around sacks of cash in any currency.
ReplyDeleteCongrats Sam....best post yet! When I saw John reply to my interview after I posted his article on DV, I had hoped you would jump on an opportunity to interview him. Although it's not what any current Dinar investor wants to hear, he's absolutely correct. If even a few people read this and take it to the various forums, "eventually" reason will gain a foothold, and the guru bonanza will come to a screeching halt. Even if they don't immediately believe it, the fact that none of the pumpers/gurus will agree to debate the subject (as we did on DV) will at the very least convince the rational reader and potential "new" investor not to fall victim to the scammers. Great job guys! I can't post it, but somebody will.
ReplyDeleteP.S.: Here's a link to John's original article, followed by more than 350 questions and answers where he patiently goes into much greater detail on issues commonly raised. It's a good read, and most of what he says is independently verifiable by those who still have doubts.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.learningmarkets.com/the-iraqi-dinar-scam/
Great info John. Nice to see someone with real credentials getting involved to bring light to this scam. Thanks to Sam also for bringing this into the mostly “locked down” dinar world.
ReplyDeleteI would just like to add a little more info to the Kuwait scam. When Kuwait was invaded they only had about 380 million dinar in circulation. The Central Bank and all private banks ceased operations and didn’t re-open until Saddam was expelled. So while a few people on the street might have bought a few dinars from citizens who were panicking or from some street money exchangers… the thing to remember is that the Central Bank of Kuwait, nor any private bank issued one single dinar, NOT ONE, at a rate lees than the $3 official rate.
The Central Bank of Iraq has issued 30 trillion dinar at a rate of 1166 or worse.
Hey 16045....Your excellent point about the 30 Trillion Dinars in circulation is one that I've brought up dozens of times at DV (prior to being blocked) and not one of the gurus/pumpers will ever address that issue. People seem oblivious to the fact that each of those Dinars in circulation would instantly assume the new value were this RV of .10 cents to $8.00 (depending on which genius pumper you want to listen to) to actually occur. Unless I'm missing something, this would create more money in Iraqi currency alone than currently exists in the entire world, making the entire RV concept virtually impossible without even considering the myriad of other factors and available evidence. Perhaps John could return and discuss the subject to give it a bit more credibility. To me, at least, it's one of the most important pieces of this puzzle.
ReplyDeleteLegolas I would have loved to cover a number of other topics, but I felt that there was only so much I could cover in one post without overwhelming people. The main thing I wanted him to address is that RVs and RDs are nothing like what's being represented in the dinar forums, and likewise with the Kuwaiti dinar. Maybe I can bring him back in a few weeks for a follow up.
DeleteExactly Legolas… I too have been banned from most of the dinar sites for simply pointing out facts.
ReplyDeleteLast I saw… the whole world combined has about 5 Trillion dollars worth of currency (hard cash) circulating around. A $1 RV for Iraq would give them $30 Trillion in dinar, or 6 times the entire world combined.
Iraq on the other hand has a $200 billion GDP. The world combined has a $60 trillion GDP. That gives them one third of 1% of the worlds GDP.
So six times more currency than the whole world, with 1/3 of 1% of the GDP… and to think people actually believe this will happen. To make it even worse… 80% of Iraq’s GDP is in oil sales which are conducted in dollars.
Legolas, lol I was banned from DV for posting your interview with sam I am.
ReplyDeleteThis is the best analysis of the Forex market, Kuwait, and Iraq Dinar that I have seen. One point, the Central Bank of Kuwait, when the country was invaded took all the banking records and hid them. When they were liberated everyone who had an account still had one and still had their money.
I've listend to the bs from these sites for over 3 years and I'm sooooo happy that finally the truth is being told.
Thank you Sam I Am for Dinar Douchebags! You Rock!
My first thought after reading the interview is:
DeleteIt would be refreshing for a completely objective party to conduct the interview and submit the questions instead of what appears to be an individual with an agenda. In fact, depsite any conveyed philanthropic motivations, Sam I Am comes across as somewhat of a scorned individual consumed with fulfilling her (or his) particular vendetta. Whatever that may be......
As far as Mr Jagerson is concerned, his purvue is a typical by the book perception of the matter at hand. He indeed uses some historical fact to support the view point and by the book economic principle. However, there seems to be a certain congruency that is lacking where this issue in Iraq is concerned. Take Zimbabwe for instance. They don't really have a GDP. Then there is the tired example of Turkey. Turkey was not conquered by the World's Hedgemonic Power, then completely restructured to reflect Westernized Economy and Governance. Nor is Iraq plagued with hyper inflation. Considering there is a Central Bank in Iraq and now in Libya, both of which are possessed by Western interests, the rules of the game have changed. Amalgamtion is the order. He and Sam I am fail to take this reality into account.
All things considered, I found Jagerson's perspective reasonable. Yet as per usual limited in the scope of understanding in regard to the real state of Global Finance & Power. The rules of the game have changed and those rules are only for the serf class. To a degree Jager stated he was unsuccessful or unwilling to continue in the 3+T-a day Forex Mkt because of the rules change. It is interesting to note that Banks run that market.Then there are the intra bank plays which the public knows nothing about wherein they make billions over night.
At the end of the day this is speculation. THat entails great risk-Period. Although in this game the downside is limited and totally according to someone's willingness to "play". The price of admission is fairly nominal and the upside could end in a profit. Especially considering who is in control. My bet is on the need and greed of the Power. Regardless no one is forced into this and do so willingly. So if they "can't hack it , they need to pack it"...
Finally- anyone, including Mr Jagerson or Sam I am that believes this is about Iraq, for the Iraqi people and they are now a "Soveriegn", come see me,I have a bridge to sell you. There are other issues regarding the complexity of this matter which are not addressed, but those can be for another time
THis should get the party started - for now....
Duke you're right. I do have an agenda. I want people to make their decisions based on facts and not hype. And they won't get facts from the pumpers.
DeleteYou're right, this is speculative. Unfortunately it's not presented that way by many of the gurus. It's a blessing from God, or a fulfillment of bible prophecy, or a plan put together by Dick Cheney and company to create a windfall in the trillions for the US and we were just lucky enough to find out about it .... yada yada. Interviews with people like I am presenting provide dinarians with a more down to earth fact based assessment. If you want to throw a thousand or so into the dinar without worrying about losing it then fine. But far too many lives are being ruined by the fraudulent practices of gurus and pumpers. I've heard of people investing up to $50K in dinar. Not too many people can afford to invest that much in something "speculative".
By the way, Turkey's inflation rate when they lopped was right about where Iraq's is now and their economy was growing. You can call it a tired example if you wish, but Shabibi thought it was worth studying.
And I think your statement that the downside is limited assumes that we'll all be able to exchange our currency for the new currency in the event of a lop. We have no guarantee of that. Every dollar you spend on dinar is at risk until this plays out.
Clearly you do, because it comes across quite aggressively. I'm all for strong opinion, that trumps weakness and hedging any day.
DeleteRegardless of that fact it also seems to have clouded your better judgement. THe scope of this is not relegated to Iraq and the Iraqi people. Before you, Jagerson or anyone else balks, study it in order to substantiate your position instead of waxing emotional or claiming "tin- foil hat conspiracy" at first blush. So, "the facts" as you & Jagerson have stated them are not comprehensive, but quite limited in their range.
Case in point- consider the facts in what was a State, read Libyan owned CB which Ghaddafi planned to utilize in his plan to back their Dinar with... Gold. Guess who got "Saddamed"??? THen study Fiat Currency, the advent of the Fed Reserve. Perhaps a little reading on the G 7/G 8 meetings and their intent to restructure the GLobal Currency Mkt would do you well. THen we'll talk.
Turkey had single digit inflation then LOP'd ???? I find that interesting because the average rate of inflation in the ME is @ 6.2%- 7%. UAE has the lowest at around .9%. Iraq's is also growing. Yet we digress because you are honing in on one aspect of the big picture. IF you are indeed seeking truth sans the vendetta, it would be advisable to refrain from the myopic approach.
Risk? Ok, I get it. However it seems your good intentions are also clouded by what appears to be a personal problem. Name one investment, including a business venture that doesn't possess risk. I would also be interested in where exactly we can find any guarantees. Stock Mkt perhaps? Bonds? Forex? MF GLobal??? Looks like we're coming up blank huh?
So someone has willlfully invested 50k into what amounts to an Exotic Currency? So what? That is why the call it SPECULATION, friend. If they do not possess the good sense to refrain from using the milk money for a specualtive venture, or simply take someone's word without proper due dilligence, how exactly is that he pumpers fault? It is not your business , mine or anyone elses what someone does with their time or money. And.....guess what , not our problem either.
My sense is that your motivations are not quite all that you project, or perhaps all that you might think. THat however is your prerogotive. Mine is to comment according to what I see.
THe ladder goes both ways friend.
PS Oh and um, I don't have a website or sell IQD either
Hello Duke.. I have been reading the back and forth exchange, and while you are trying to bring hope, which is appreciated, you too also have failed to provide any hard evidence of the possibility that a country can increase their exchange rate by 1000x, when there is the excess of circulation that they currently have, at least without having devastating affects on their economy. I can say, that at least Sam in the past posts, as well as John, have provided good historical data to help people understand what a redenomination is, and how this is a very real risk, but there has been zero proof that a country can revalue their currency 1000x higher in an instant. Until you can do this, I would not advise trying to try to say the sky is green, when it is clearly blue, however, I would love to see whatever evidence you have that shows any of the theories that dinars have already been withdrawn from circulation, or that the CBI bank numbers are fake, etc.
DeleteIf those of us that consider the possibility that the CBI has been up front with their intentions are wrong, then can you explain and give us the definition of a redenomination? What is the definition of a redenomination to you, and what is involved in the process if we are wrong? This info, if you know better, may be extremely helpful.
I would also like to ask, while you are here to defend those that make up stories each week, or give info, but never provide hard evidence, because there is speculation here that what we have been reading and hearing is in fact true, and the proof has been provided from those on this site, whereas those gurus who claim an RV is imminent, have you gone to THEIR sites to ask them for proof, or questioned them as to why they continually say that a redenomination is not possible, and we are guaranteed to make millions on a thousand dollar investment? Your argument seems a bit one sided here, which leads me to believe you may be trying to close your eyes from the boogie man so the boogie man will not bite, or, you are trying to wish something into existence.
Sam has never once been shy to answer any questions, provide any proof, or give any details as to how a conclusion was drawn. Now, go to a site where there is a clear agenda where there is profit made by creating a sense of urgency to their readers, and ask them for proof to what they are saying, and you will surely be banned. Now which sounds like they are more afraid of the truth to you? I think you are smart enough to know the answer to that question.
JayP,
DeletePerhaps you should re read both my posts. In neither of them have I stated nor implyed that there would be a 1000x increase in the Rate of Exchange in the Iraqi Dinar. Or anythting of the sort. In fact I didn't even address the issue directly. So unless I have missed a finer point of your comments, I'm sure I have no clue what you are talking about.
In terms of redonomination, I think the definition is quite academic. In regard to the conveyances of the CBI , Fed Reserve or any bank, interpret their communications anyway you wish. Other than the fact that they make public anouncements/ statements, I wouldn't depend on much of anything they communicate in terms of validity, unless there is a fee attached. Consider our congress for example.
Where have I defended any individual or set of pumpers? It seems apparent you missed that reference, because they as well as, liars, charlottans and ignorance exist on both sides of the aisle here. That much is apparent.
Anyone who states or projects that a Zero Neutral LOP or some equivalent is not possible does not fully comprehend the investment that they have entered into. For the record I have gone to several sites ands asked exactly that.In conjunction with calling certain individuals out regarding information I know to be fabrication. I've read many and frankly tire of it. Imminence is clearly subjective here. THat could mean tomorrow or three years from now...
Finally, my postion is only one sided only to someone whom is not reading my posts in their entirety. My position isn't taking sides ,but drawing the line of reason. Sam I Am has posted no real proof of anyting other than lies and fabrications of pumpers. Anyone with a wit of intelligence can identify that. I don't need to go to a site to indentify a charlatan much less someone who doesn't possess a comprehensive purvue in order to provide me or anyone else with the informationm I need to make and intelligent decision.
AS I stated and will so again- the ladder goes both ways. Like it or not.
Interesting, because this sounds an quite familiar to what Sam has been saying all along. A 1000x increase is not possible, nor realistic.
DeleteYou then go on to state the definition of a redenomination is quite academic. Well, I would agree with that, and add to it, that is actually very elementary, or simple to understand. What you did not provide though, is your definition of a redenomination, and what is involved in the process. Sam has, and there is no matter of interpretations here. What the CBI is saying, is the definition of a redenomination. If you are in any way implying though, that there is a way to misinterpret, or that there is any other interpretation of what the CBI has been saying regarding the deletion of the zeros, then this would be an opportunity for someone like yourself, who is trying to discredit Sam, or John for speaking the truth, to prove them wrong by simply explaining to the readers, what the definition of a redenomination is. Until you can do this, and provide a definition that is not what the CBI has been saying, then it sounds to me that maybe this is just a matter of miscommunication, and you actually are in agreement with what was said.
Please see the below link regarding the redenomination in Nigeria, and the definition of a redenomination as per the Central Bank of Nigeria:
"What is currency redenomination?
Currency redenomination is the process where a new unit of money replaces the old unit with a certain ratio. It is achieved by removing zeros from a currency or moving some decimal points to the left, with the aim of correcting perceived misalignment in the currency and pricing structure, and enhancing the credibility of the local currency."
http://www.cenbank.org/redenomination/newpolicy.asp
I think that you can agree, that this sounds exactly the same as what the CBI has been quoted as stating. If I am incorrect, please let me, and the readers know, but I do not think that this is a matter of interpretation as to what they are stating.
For the record, I do appreciate your response and input, and feel this has been a fun and healthy dialogue of opinions.
JayP,
DeleteYou clearly have a penchant for reading into my posts then projecting your misinterpretation onto the context of what I clearly stated. Bravo...
RD is RD as far as I can tell and I believe I stated that -academically speaking. Other than by your haranguing misiterpretations, I didn't mention it. Regardless of that painful fact, I wasn't offering any opinion.
Where I did question Sam and Mr Jagerson is on their collective purvue. It is limited based upon what I read and I stated that quite clearly. If their stated belief is the whole of the matter , it is also naive. Nothing is by the book, not anymore. Especially because the book is now being rewritten.
JayP you seem like a nice person, but participating in your questioning has not been fun. Primarily because of your gross misinterpretations and presumption. So heretofore, I will ignore them if you continue in that vain because it is exhausting.
One last comment in regard to Mr Jagerson when I read his remarks.
Those that can do. Those that can usually teach...
Fair enough, but it sounds like you seem to agree with them in one response, whereas the next you try to make a point that you cannot clearly convey for some reason. If this is tiresome for you to try and defend statements such as:
Delete"However, there seems to be a certain congruency that is lacking where this issue in Iraq is concerned.", and then you state things such as "Nor is Iraq plagued with hyper inflation.". This is what you stated when trying to make it sound as if there are factors in this that John is not considering. Your own basis of your stance on that opinion is flawed because you must know that they did suffer hyperinflation. In fact at one point being at nearly 140% .
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=iz&v=71
It would seem that it is not John that is missing some facts here.
Additionally, you stated that a redenomination is academic, meanwhile if you concede that they did suffer from hyperinflation, but not any longer, I would have to assume that you must also realize that the redenomination generally occurs after the hyperinflationary period, not during, and in some cases, not soon after.
It just sounded as if you felt some bitterness towards Sam I am, and the intent of this site, and that is something that unless you feel that there is some need to defend those that which this site directs it's opinions towards, or exposes the truth about the people on these sites that take advantage of those that are naive or ignorant by getting people to spend money based on false pretenses and lies, then maybe you should think a bit harder before posting something like your initial response if maybe it is their opinions that can be fully supported, when you have done nothing to prove your own opinions that they may be wrong, or may have not considered other factors cannot be be supported.
You stated Sam's judgement may have been clouded, maybe your own desire or desperation to want this so badly has actually clouded your own better judgement when reading this interview. If this is not fun, and tiresome for you, then please, no need to respond any further, I believe that I have made my point abundantly clear about your judgement, or bitterness, and it is the bitterness towards the people like Sam and John that have a true intent to help those being taken advantage of those that lie and confuse, that give those people precisely the ammunition to continue on with their nonsense.
Bitterness?(swore I wouldn't do this) Why am I not surprised by the ad homminum? THat is a typical response when clear reason will not suffice.
DeleteNo flaw, no preconceived notion of how I want things, just keen observation based upon their own words, nothing more. All without blatant or oafish attempts at changing their context. Which is in sharp contrast to your penchant JayP....
In terms of the hyper inflation, there currently is none in Iraq. Infation is being mitigated though. What once was (ie 140%), is irrelevant at this point except for historical proof. Supposedly we as a species once lived in caves..... Now that is also irrelevant. Kind of like the presence of any semblance of reason and context when reading posts you happen to disagree with.......JayP
There is also no enabling in the least by me to the pumpers. Just like railing on them will not stop them either. No more than positive feelings & hope will summon the tooth fairy.
My initial response was listed with facts, that can be verified JayP. It simply takes work and comprehension to do so. One attribute you clearly lack and the other to this point,..... is questionable
Ultimately the only real point you have made and underscored time and again is that you either possess no ability to understand context or the ability to exercise an open mind. Which seems to be clouded with wayward emotion...
Now you have taken this in a direction I simply didn't wish to go. However the case, that is your prerogotive and most likely your intent. You personify the thought that whenever facts or reason won't do,resort to emotion..... Well done JayP
Yet, once again, a response with no information. Your response proves just how much of a lack of understanding you have, and how foolish you sound. You can attack me and state I lack comprehension in a failed effort to try distract the attention from your own misinformed statements. Even in this pitiful response, you stated that the past inflation (that is the cause for the 27Trillion dinars now in circulation) is irrelevant at this point, but if it was YOU that did your homework rather than pumping away in this blog for whatever strange purpose it is, you would learn a little something yourself, that when a country suffers from hyperinflation, and after the inflation is mitigated, it is THEN that they redenominate their currency. So, once again, your strange, twisted, and distorted response is once again wrong, and you used this opportunity to try and deflect your own lack of understanding to distract, so with that, I will not play your "I know you are, what am I" game in the form of fancy words.
DeleteThe fact of the matter, is this interview pointed out some very important facts and opinions, and regardless if you like it or not, your bitter opinions will not take away from this important information being put out there. The truth is, I was the one that stated I enjoyed the exchange of opinion, while it was you that felt it beneath you and became emotional when questioned about your so called facts that meant nothing, nor could you prove it did. Hmmm... sounds an awful lot like the pumpers that are exposed here on this site.. wonder why you have an axe to grind..
My, you are quite the emotional one aren't you JayP? Listen friend , now you have hardened my resolve.
DeleteI've stated several facts. They simply sailed miles over your head. Iraq is not currently in a state of hyper inflation. No matter how you might conjure the notion. Any rise in single digit inflaton is being mitigated by the CBI through auctions and other "deleting the zeros". All per the CBI articles IF I interpret them correctly. THis function reduces the circulation of dinar which has a correlating effect on ...the rate of inflation.They also seem to be engaging or about to engage some form of de dollarization. Inflation, once more is and remains in the single digits for over three years...
To further exhibit your irrationality and lack of understanding the current Rate of Exchange is by and large an artificial one that has been held in check by Shabbibbi and the CBI by agreement with the IMF.THe IMF also imposed the artificial devaluation when the UN place Iraq under sanctions. Just like what has recently happened to Iran's state owned CB. Whether or not they will RD or some variant thereof is anyone's guess. Any person stating anything or any knowledge to the contrary is not telling the truth.
Lastly, it should be obvious that responding is not beneath me, though I said I would not. It is on the other hand STUPID. To continually be ompelled to clarify my very clear language, to an inpertint, incoherent individual who persists in convoluting everything post I make is pointless.
Considering I have nothing to sell, no site to manage or even a blog to run, it escapes me as to what exactly I am pumping. Except of course the notion that I can reason with someone like you JayP......
now twist away......
lol!!! Once again, you never seem to fail to amaze with how you have no logic in anything you state, just attempts to dazzle with words, and it is actually very unimpressive.
DeleteFor one, I also stated that they are no longer suffering from hyperinflation, so we agree there, but somehow I think in your arrogance you fail to see that much.
Secondly, can you define your definition of other "deleting of zeros"?? What "other" form of deleting zeros is there my friend? Is there other forms of deleting zeros we are not aware of outside of a redenomination? Are you implying already that they are deleting zeros now by any chance? If so, then this puts you in the same school of thought as certain "gurus" out there that have been pumping that nonsense. If that is the case, show me proof, and not some silly article saying people are complaining dinars are hard to come by... lol!
Secondly, you stated the IMF imposed the artificial devaluation.. I challenge you to show me anything that shows that the IMF imposed this artificial rate when they were placed under sanctions. I can agree that due to the sanctions, they suffered from hyperinflation, and their currency then spiraled downward, but, due to trading on the black markets even before the Kuwaiti invasion, the Dinar was already on it's way downward. I believe that the actual rate of the dinar had already fallen to less than .35 by the time they invaded Kuwait in 1990, and then plummeted after the invasion. So, truth be told, I believe you are incorrect in your research about why the dinar holds the rate it does today. In fact, after the Dinar was exchanged for what we hold today, it actually went up from where it was prior to that.
So, before you want to tell me that I am incoherent, maybe you should look in the mirror, and read some facts, because until then, you stories make no sense. The truth is, I do not need to make stories up to try and speak down to someone else. If you do want to speak down to someone, try and get your facts straight.
JayP, in all honesty, you're an exhausting, agitating nag. I'm not implying anything other than what the CBI has stated via their own press and daily auction information. Nothing more.
DeleteYet you cannot resist the tourette-style compulsion to add your particular spin of what I didn't state , nor imply. If there is a shortage somewhere of anything in Iraq, including sock lint, I wouldn't know it.
In terms of the IMF imposed devaluation -disprove it after you've disproved the Iranian Rial devaluation that just happened. Iraq nor Iran did this arbitrarily. In either case, the initial devaluation of 4000:1 USD is a far cry from .35 USD. In addition , yes it has risen according to regulatory agreement, not arbitrary appreciation via the evaluations by unilateral decree of the CBI.
JayP, I don't need to simply "tell you that you are incoherent", you prove it in every response.
next...
So, do you have anything that shows that the IMF actually imposed a new rate on Iran? Even with the UN Sanctions imposed on Iran in 2006, they already had a devalued currency. The rate of the Rial was over 9000:1 in Dec of 2005, so the rate has been declining well before the recent sanctions, so I am not sure I understand where the reference that the current Rial rate was imposed by the IMF..
DeleteI have always thought that telling the public that the Dinar will definitely RV was very misleading. Im very surprised that people like Adam Montana or "Wolfey" are still operating their web of B.S. websites. Why the FBI has not stepped in I have no idea.
ReplyDeleteHey JohnnyV and Area52. Thanks for the replies. I think people are finally beginning to realize that Adam Montana (not his real name) is not the helpful saint which so many have been brainwashed to believe he is, and he's suddenly discovered that he can no longer afford to allow free speech on his site. His is in fact the largest of the BS Dinar empires, with at least 19 related websites,and I remain hopeful that his house of cards will come crashing down on him in the near future. There are Federal statutes which govern large scale organized fraud, and I believe that a thorough investigation might be extremely revealing - only time will tell. It's evident that individuals are gathering evidence against many of these people. I encourage everyone to copy and save as many of the pumper/guru posts as possible. We never know when that information may become valuable, and I'm confident that complaints will number in the thousands when the truth is eventually revealed. The guru fans will suddenly become their worst nightmares when they realize they've been victimized, and they start looking for avenues of retribution. Sites like this one will help to make people more aware, and it's already clear that it's the dealers, gurus and pumpers who have made the huge money - at the expense of the investors. The money involved here may ultimately make the Madoff scandal look like peanuts in comparison.
ReplyDeleteMy take on why this has been allowed to continue.
ReplyDeleteI think when the dinar was released the Coalition and Iraq allowed the dinar out into the surrounding middle eastern countries and wanted as many people as possible holding dinar and hoping for a big RV. It was a way to get support for the whole Iraqi operation.
Anyone holding dinar would be rooting for success. If you doubt the effectiveness of that… I’ve seen many democrats who despised George Bush and anything he did, on dinar boards pulling for Iraq. It was basically a big Psy-op plan. What I don’t think they expected, but turned out to be a blessing in disguise, was that the dinar turned into a world wide phenomenon. Dinar sales filled their FX reserves. It was and still is basically a huge interest free loan.
I look forward to seeing how they treat the trillions of dinar that have left Iraq and is in the hands of speculators.
Thanks for your take on this. I have theorized in the past that Iraq and the US govt were somehow complicit in this but couldn't quite frame it in a logical fashion as you have. Well done.
Delete16045....that's been the most logical explanation I've been able to put forth for the past 2 years. This massive speculation undeniably amounts to a HUGE, long-term interest free loan for Iraq, and they've inexplicably permitted billions of brand new IQD to leave the country unabated every month for 8 years now. Had they any intentions of RV'ing the Dinar, there's no way they would or could have allowed that to occur in such astounding numbers. The M1 has increased by trillions each year, and to believe that the GOI is unaware of this rampant RV expectation is simply delusional. Without a doubt, Iraq, the dealers, gurus and pumpers have been laughing all the way to the bank for years now. The final outcome remains unknown, but one would think that the liability issue for those fraudulently promoting it would be significant. Time will ultimately tell the story.
ReplyDeleteI saw this interview made it to Dinar Daddy's site, but was quickly deleted. Probably not good for sales at Treasury Vault.
ReplyDeleteSame with DV. I posted some quotes from John Jagerson. It was deleted immediately and I was banned. What does that tell you. I agree with you 16045 it is like a massive interest free loan and money has flooded in for years otherwise I think the FBI would of shut a number of the Dinar sites by now as well as dealers.
DeleteHello guys.
ReplyDeleteWe also have not to forget that the US did not invade Iraq for playing war games.
There was a solid plan in return of there investment as we all know and one of them is the huge Oil reserves Iraq has. However long this will take - I am a firm believer that we all will prosper from this currency but in a way of investing in Iraq as business venture and start building it up. The doors are open...lets help them to get back on the economic map....
That happened with Germany, Vietnam, and so forth...the real treasure is in help building economies.......return will be tremendous and the currency will stabilize.....but we have to get of our lazy butts an stop listening to all those super stars out there who claim they heard it all....nobody knows for sure and won't until Iraq decides to..very simple.... I listen to a few selected guys....but quite honestly......they seem to be all in it for themselves...just think about it....facts are facts...and the fact is nothing will happen until it happen...whenever that is....
Question: How many Johns are out there? How many Breitlings are out there?
I love your Blog Sam......at least the name....lol God Bless the all of you..