Sunday, August 26, 2012

Randy's Record

I listened to a conference call on Tuesday that featured Randy Koonce from Currency Chatter.  In this call Randy said two things that stood out to me as blatantly untrue.  First, when a caller asked him if deleting the zeros means removing the notes with three zeros from circulation why don't they just say it that way?  Randy's response was that they are saying it that way in Arabic, but the translation into English distorts the meaning.  Well when Shabibi was in Washington D.C. last year he talked about deleting the zeros in English, and he didn't say squat about removing larger bills from circulation.  He said it was being done to "facilitate payments".  No translation issues there.  Shabibi was describing a redenomination.  And second, Randy said that Allawi won the election but Obama put Maliki back in office.  Actually nobody won the election.  Allawi may have won more votes but he didn't get enough to win the election according to their system.  It's just as wrong to say that Maliki stole Iraq's election because Allawi got more votes as it is to say that Bush stole the 2000 election because Gore got more votes. 

When I started this blog I listed Randy as one of the good guys, despite the fact that he said many things that I disagreed with.  His rate of $3.41 was based on the requirements of Iraq's budget which to me is nonsense.  Currencies aren't valued based on budgetary requirements.  They're based mainly on the size of the economy and the money supply.  Still, I couldn't see that Randy was selling anything or making any money off of his analysis so I considered him harmless.

Well over the past year Randy has been slipping further and further into pumper territory.  He has an ad from Dinar Corp on his website.  He has flown to Chicago to do an interview with Ivy from Dinar Corp.  He has been doing conference calls promoting Dinar Corp and Freedoms Radio.  This disturbing tendency caused me to take another look at RK.  Here's what he has said over the past year or so.

5-16-2011  (via spice4life74) I just spoke with Randy Koonce and he informed me that Parliament is in Special Session now to vote on the remaining ministers. Once that is accomplished we will have our RV

5-19-2011  I understand that everything is done, ministers picked, agreements signed, all we need is a vote, supposedly meeting today for the vote & RV will be shortly afterwards.

5-23-2011  …I feel the ministers were voted on last week… we only lack the announcement which I feel they will do this week…

5-29-2011  At this time we are day to day for the RV to take place…rate HAS to be at least…$3.41

Randy Koonce
6-12-2011 It looks so good for tomorrow I can’t stand it…I’ve told you to watch 2 things…The money (budget) and Ministers…news says ministers approved Ministers of Electricity budget request–means they are ready to open budget and political blocks have agreed on security ministers and will resolve (vote) tomorrow (Sunday)…If they do what they say they are going to do, tomorrow (Sunday) this is over…If they don’t announce ministers it may be delayed a few days…my rate based on the budget numbers is $3.21

7-9-2011  …I believe the pressure is about to break, we are in a pissing contest with maliki and the rest of parliament….I am having trouble with this going 2 weeks

7-9-2011 the Erbil Agreement is agreed on and they can vote on it Tuesday. Then if they vote on it Tuesday and it is passed then Shabibi should pull the trigger…it will be (rate) about $3.40, maybe a little more, to cover the budget

7-20-2011  Looks good for Thursday or any day after that, the Prime Minister has to be in town. Maliki was upset that the U.S. held them up last weekend. The lower denoms are in the banks, not in the streets. Rate won’t be $.86 or $4.40, it will be enough to cover their budget, $3.41, it’s simple economics

8-2-2011  The Erbil agreement has been voted on, we are waiting for the announcement that they will implement it, today, no later than tomorrow, if they do, we are on, we should have an R/V. The rate will come in to make the budget work – $3.41, the people that say $.86 can’t add.

9-18-2011 [via VNJW] The Kurds are saying to M to impliment the Arbil (Erbil) Agreement & giving him til Tuesday or ask for the no confidence. If M does not, then they will try to get M out of office. This puts M in a corner! If he does impliment the Arbil, we have an RV. if not, we will probably be waiting until they oust him & put someone into position to do just that. We need to see the Ministers in place, the HCL, the Arbil implimented and we have an RV. [I] feel Maliki will co-operate rather than loose out….which means the RV would happen by Tuesday. [I] feel the rate will be $3.41 or a few cent more to meet the budget…..but no more and it will stay that way a long time.

10-2-2011  The only part of Erbil that we are concerned with is that they have a government. It will be in the news, no it has not happened yet. Maliki said he agrees with everything…BUT is all of this legal, constitutional???…that’s how he stalled it again. They are going to make sure it is constitutional at the meeting on Wednesday. Are we close, yes, Wednesday is the day Maliki has to put up or shut up, otherwise they will ask for a no confidence vote, if they do it will be another 3 weeks. If you hear anyone say the rate is above $4, take everything they said before that and throw it out of the window. They are not going to drop a rate out that is any more than their budget. Their entire oil revenue was 26 billion, their entire budget was 90 billion, divide the two, that gives you the rate, $3.45, not too far out from that. Don’t let the emotion of an $8 rate get you worked up, don’t be deceived. Check CBI to see if it has RV’ed, if it didn’t RV there, it didn’t RV.

11-13-2011  Shabibi is the ultimate guy that can pull the trigger, he wants a full government, Security Ministers and Stratigic Council should give us a full government. They are putting special sessions together to get this done. The U.S. got ourselves in a bind with this immunity thing, it should have been settled months ago. It’s a political process and we are observers, but we are in a very good spot. We are in a window, don’t know a date…I personally think that before Thanksgiving we are out of this. It’s not a matter of IF, it’s a matter of WHEN. Monday – Thursday watch the news. The rate is $3.41, I know this from so many sources, always to the USD.

12-12-2011  Bottom line is you need to see the implementation of the Erbil and announcement of the ministers & then the rate will show. No one knows the date, Shabibi doesn’t even know the date. Maliki wants out of Chapter 7 – not going to happen until it RV’s. I don’t see it happening on the 15th, the closer it gets to the end of the month, the hotter it gets, yes, it could go to the 1st of the year. I don’t see anything that says this is our week, next week looks better. A $6 or $7 rate, not right. Based on the official numbers, the rate will be $3.41.

1-1-2012  there will be no RV on Sunday or Monday or Tuesday…the earliest time would be around Wed or Thurs of Next week if it happens. there is things starting to take place that gives me hope for the end of the week…Look for the announcement of the Ministers and the completion of the strategic council…do not believe the 4 to 8 dollar rates and do not believe all the hype about the UN or IMF or anybody forcing Iraq to do anything…they are just about finished putting Maliki in a position to show all of this…Exxon, Shell, have said if Iraq does not start paying then they were going to shut there operations down… this was such a great sign because it puts Maliki in a position that he cannot afford…this is coming to a close.

1-9-2012  Iraqs GOI is coming together and they are getting ready to show the ministers. ..Watch for Ministers to show… I believe there are better times than others to show this thing…so my way of thinking is at the end of Business Day In Iraq on Thursday or the Start of Business in Iraq on Sunday….because it makes the most sense… Monday Tues is out of the question this week so I look to the latter part of the week and the Sunday morning for us…My Rate has always been 3.41, because it makes the budget work…I will say that this month is shaping up very good and the next 2 weeks do hold lots of promise…this is on the last legs of the journey.

2-9-2012  Exxon is shutting down if Iraq doesn’t pay them. The biggest thing about the Arab Summit is to show these guys they’re big enough…they’re arrogant enough. Exxon would have to pack up to show them but they think they need them. I don’t think they’ll have an Arab Summit if they don’t get this going. Next week ought to be a very hot week for us…this conference has got to start…it’s all a matter of timing as to how fast they get out.

2-27-2012  I am looking for this thing soon but it will happen after the conference, do I know when the conference will happen i do not yet but I believe this next week should enlighten us on that…So this next week look for a date or a no confidence on Maliki…the big event the Arab Summit must have RV to pay for the Summit. I do not believe at this time they will move the summit even tho Maliki’s group has asked to have the national conference delayed until after the summit…that cannot happen.

3-11-2012  This Arab Summit will not take place until the RV. I do think the Arab summit has them pinned…they have to have the money and Kuwait said you [Maliki] can’t come on the 14th until you have the money…I think we’re in a spot where it’s about to break, but I just don’t know which way…either he finds a way out of it or we find the RV.

3-14-2012  he [Maliki] went and signed papers to pay Kuwait…They gave him until Sunday to make good on GOI and RV… Before or Iraq gets the Summit pulled.

3-21-2012  We need to see these political things done: 1. The Ministers 2. The Stratigic Council. Then right after we should see the RV. That should fulfill everything Sahbibi wanted. It’s never looked this good. Shabibi said he will change the exchange rate to make up the budget – $3.41, $.86 doesn’t make the budget work. This is a great time, we are seeing this come together.

4-2-2012  Iraq did not have the money to do the Arab Summit so they just stayed at the airport for all the meetings. They did move some of the meetings to the green zone, all of which the United States provided the security…The two biggest countries did not really participate in the Summit. And, by everyone’s standard, other than Maliki’s own group, was the biggest bust there could be. Saudi Arabia did not go because Iraq has not lived up to the agreements that Maliki signed off on. That is…showing the Government and letting the money RV. DO NOT WORRY there is still pressure on Maliki to finish at the National Conference on April 5th. which is when they promised to show the Ministers and the Strategic Council.

4-2-2012  So, do we look for the RV? No we look for the Ministers and the GOI. Ban Ki Moon, from the UN, did not go to the Arab Summit to release Iraq from Chapter 7. He went on behalf of another country trying to expose the fact that Maliki Lied on Documents…”and by lying…all things were signed and promised to be done before the Arab Summit.” The only reason they were not done is Maliki wanted to go to the Summit with total control of Iraq. This has back fired on him and now he is facing the wrath of the Kurds which started today…they have quit sending oil. This is a very great sign So do not expect anything until the 5th. It can happen at anytime, but do not expect until the 5th. If there is no GOI, then we will have to see what is happening at that time.

4-5-2012  There’s pressure – tremendous pressure to get the government set up…it doesn’t mean it’s tomorrow, but it does mean it’s not far from the road. If they have it, you’ll see the strategic council and then the money…there’s no if’s, and’s or butt’s…you don’t have to worry about a $14 dollar or $4 rate…It drives me up against the wall with 86 cents….it only means to remove 000’s off the street…you can’t remove 000’s off a rate. Don’t worry about the rates falling from the sky on the bank screens…it’s bs…it will show on the CBI…Just check the CBI and if it hasn’t changed , it hasn’t changed. My number is $3.41.

4-26-2012  The National Meeting has to take place in the public eye. All that is left is an announcement. As soon as Maliki announces the Stratigic Council he looses 2/3 of his power; as soon as the ministers are announces it becomes law. It’s not the IMF, it’s not Chapter 7 etc., holding this up, it’s one man [Maliki]. Now Shabibi says, I’m not pulling the trigger until I get the power sharing. When we see the dates for the National Meeting…that’s our date, well then, Maliki does have to show up. The removal of the 3 zeroes has nothing to do with the rate, it is just about removing them from the streets. The rate, $3.41 based upon the budget. IMO, it can go a couple more weeks, but not much longer than that. I really believe that we are at the end of this.

5-7-2012  We are really close to seeing the National Conference. Maliki has said that he is ready to do this. All has been done in Parliament. All that needs to be done is the Stratigic Council and the Ministers, announced in the public. What we are looking at is political. Are we close, I believe so, as soon as Talabani announes the National Meeting, we are done with this thing. Chapter 7 will not be lifted until we have a Stratigic Council & Ministers. Follow the news and look for these certain things. Do we feel that this is coming to an end – yes. Maliki can force them to call a no confidence. Do I think he will – no. I feel very good about where we are at. Each day that goes by for the next 2 weeks is a good day. We were kind of hoping to see the National Conference today, but it didn’t show. Rate – $3.41, it’s all about the budget.

I don't enjoy posting this because Randy comes across as a nice guy, but facts are facts.  Randy has a track record over the past year about as good as BGG and Frank.  I hope my fears aren't confrimed but at this point he seems to be going the direction of so many of these guys - down pumper alley.

For further consideration you can listen to some old conference calls featuring RK. 

(8/29/12 .... UPDATE!!!  Audios are working now. :-)

Aug. 23, 2010

Oct. 12, 2010

Dec. 19, 2010


  1. In very, and I mean very, simplified terms, the "wealth" of Iraq, divided by the units of money, will equal the value of their currency. If you go from 30 billion Dinar to 70 trillion dinar (which is the short version of what has happened since the mid 80's) without increasing the relative wealth of the economy, you end up with a currency that was once nominally valued at $3 per give or take, to one that is worth 1166 to the dollar. For the ones that are saying even if it lops to .86 and they'll raise it to 1:1, that's not a realistic number to think of for 5 years or more, for it to gradually rise to 3 Dinar to the dollar from there is a 50-100 year kind of thing. They would have to triple their economic base (and even that relative to growth of the dollar actually) to do that. With 92% of their GDP in oil, and the real possibility that the US and China may power their auto fleets with domestically sourced natural gas within 10 years, I wouldn't bet on them keeping even over that time horizon.

    They'll redenominate the currency to 1.17 give or take, and within 5 years it might, with luck, reach 1:1....

  2. When you say "They'll redenominate the currency to 1.17 give or take" what are you saying, that 1 dinar will equal 1.17 USD?

    1. No. That's 1.17 dinar per dollar. It's currently 1188 dinar per dollar. So removing 3 zeros means moveing the decimal point over 3 places. 1166 becomes 1.166.
      So that's 86 cents per dinar. For the new dinar only. Current dinar will retain it's current value.

    2. Sorry. That should say it's currently 1166, not 1188

  3. Harold - What he means is : The old (current) currency gets exchanged for new currency at a fixed rate (usually 1:1000) which has the effect of "raising the value 1000:1" (via simple supply and demand). This means those 31tn (M0) and 72tn (M2) Iraqi Dinars money supply tradable at 1170:1 will become only 30bn / 72bn but will be tradable at 1.17:1.

    On a personal level, this means you'd also "cash in" 1:1000 for newer 1000:1 notes resulting in a 1:1 neutral swap, ie, if you bought 1m Dinar for $854 at 1170:1, you would be given 1,000 (1k) New Dinar's of which each unit would be worth 1,000x more (1.17:1) (or the same $854). There wouldn't be a raise in $ value (or Euro value or GBP £ value, etc) of whatever currency you changed it up for.

    This also applies to the whole money supply (ie, bank balances in Dinar accounts, Dinar valued Bonds, financial accounting adjustments, etc). Everything moves at the same ratio - it can't work any other way.

    Everything also gets repriced downwards by same factor 1:1000 factor. It can't work any other way as the maths obviously have to balance out across the board or you'd end up with 1,300 Dinar loaves of bread (currently costing $1.11) ending up priced at $1,111 per loaf if they "RV'd" 1.17:1 without a redenomation. The biggest pumper "RV" credibility shattering elephant in the room is that without any redenomination, everything inside Iraq would end up 1,000x more expensive to export!...

    There's absolutely nothing new about the process and nothing unique about Iraq. It's been done literally dozens of times on every continent on Earth (including next door Turkey, similarly US occupied Afghanistan and oil rich Venezuela (which has literally twice the oil reserves of Iraq).

    The only confusion comes from dishonest pumpers who've spent years churning out false information (ie, "you'll exchange 1:1, no redenomination", etc) about the "RV" repeatedly being openly contradicted by the Central Bank of Iraq that some have abandoned the "It's an RV not a redenomination" discredited propaganda but instead are now trying to blur the lines between them and pretend "they're the same thing". Not even close

    1. Are you the notorious Brian from

    2. Who me Sam? Couldn't possibly be... ;-)

      Just out of interest, what notoriety? Have a few pumpers gone and got upset when a good dose of the truth gets posted on a site they can't censor? :-D

      PS : Love your site. You're doing an awesome job!

    3. Thanks. Just kidding about "notorious". I'm delighted to see you here finally. What took you so long? I used to read your stuff when I was doing my research a year ago before I launched this blog.

  4. I'm flattered! I have a lot of other interests really. Aside from currency and precious metals trading (that's kinda how I see straight through the pumper BS) I also volunteer part-time for a charity that assists people in recuperating from brain injuries. It's been very busy (but also very rewarding). Thanks. (And keep up the good work!)


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