According to Wikipedia, the countries with the highest GDP growth in 2012 were:
| 1 |  Libya |
104.5% |
| 2 |  Sierra Leone |
19.8% |
| 3 |  Mongolia |
12.3% |
| 4 |  Niger |
11.2% |
| 5 |  Turks and
Caicos Islands |
11.2% |
| 6 |  Turkmenistan |
11.0% |
| 7 |  Panama |
10.7% |
| 8 |  Afghanistan |
10.2% |
| 9 |  Macau |
10.0% |
| 10 |  Timor-Leste |
10.0% |
Now, following the logic of dinar gurus, the growth in GDP should be reflected in the value of their currencies. Let's start with Libya. After the revolution of 2011 that ended with the death of Gaddafi their economy was understandably in recession. But it bounced back impressively in 2012 with an increase of over 100%. What happened with the Libyan Dinar in 2012? Did it double in value? No. Did it increase dramatically? No. In fact, it remained rather stable around 1.25 to the USD or $.80. (Charts below were taken from www.xe.com.)
Next is Sierra Leone. With an impressive GDP growth rate of 19.8% the gurus would have us believe that their currency the Sierra Leonean Leone saw a dramatic increase. Not at all. It remained fairly stable at around 4.35 to the USD or $.23.
Next is Mongolia. 12.3% is pretty good, right? Let's look at their currency the Mongolian Tughrik.
As you can see it fluctuated between 1.3 and 1.4 to the USD (72 to 77 cents) and has actually depreciated so far this year. Next is Niger. Although it fluctuated a bit, it started and ended the year around 506 Francs to the USD or $.002.
The Turks and Caicos Islands use the US dollar so obviously there's no increase vs. the USD there. Turkmenistan's 11% GDP growth rate produced absolutely no increase in their currency the Manat.
The same was true for Panama's Balboa which is pegged to the USD.
Afghanistan's 10% growth rate apparently didn't impress the currency gods as the Afghani actually depreciated.
Macau's Pataca managed to squeak out a negligible increase from 8:1 ($.125) to 7.98:1 ($.12525).
And finally, Timor-Leste (East Timor) also uses the US dollar so there's no increase there either.
So as these charts clearly demonstrate there's absolutely no basis for concluding that a growing economy translates into a more valuable currency. Just for giggles I should throw Vietnam into the mix as well, since their economy has grown impressively in recent years while their currency the VND consistently loses value.
All these dipsticks who have been pumping the dong for the last four years have been 100% wrong, and anybody who bought dong on their intel has lost money. Currency isn't stock. It doesn't go up in value simply because the economy is growing. That's just ignorant armchair economics coming from hacks, quacks, and douchebags. Iraq's GDP could double next year as Libya's did and it wouldn't mean diddly as far as the value of the IQD. Case closed.
I can't argue with that. You're exactly right. I see Randy Koonce has now changed his tune and states that Iraq has to RV the dinar because it is broke! For years, all we heard was the dinar was going to revalue because of how rich Iraq was. It has bountiful deposits of oil and natural gas and gold and minerals. The economy was growing by leaps and bounds and there was just no way to contain it. They would have to revalue to reflect the true value of the country. What a crack-up! Obviously, that argument grew old and tired (and was proven wrong). So now he's switched gears and claims they need to RV because they are broke. It's as if he thinks wealth is created out of thin air (he probably does). If it was, every poor country in the world would RV their currency and pull their citizens out of poverty, right? Maybe we should scoop up the currency of every poor country in the world. One of them is bound to revalue and pull their citizens out of poverty. Heck, the US could revalue the dollar and eliminate it's massive debt overnight. Why don't we just do that? LOL! Dinar mania requires a heavy helping of ignorance to be successful and Koonce, whether he knows it or not, feeds it to dinarians in copious quanitities.
ReplyDeleteGreat research Sam. As you mentioned, the Vietnamese dong is the most ludicrous "elephant in the room" in pumper-land. Since some pumpers started pumping it, it has fallen in value by 25% despite GDP more than tripling. What more needs to be said?
ReplyDeleteEven though this is all very true, you guys know the response to this.
ReplyDeleteNone of this matters and you can't compare becuase Iraq is sitting on an ocean of oil!
Well I'm not delusional enough to believe that I'm going to convert any gooroos. But there are thousands of people out there who have been fed this crap and maybe a few of them will see the light before it's too late. I hear from them constantly about how they almost bought dinar until they read my blog, or that they have sold and moved on thanks to sites like this one. Those are the people I'm trying to reach. Those who have ears to hear. Those who don't I have to leave to their devices.
DeleteAmen Sam. Well done. Hopefully many in the dinar world will read this instead of pump mania from Ennorste and Crapper-pony.
ReplyDeleteThe problem are not the pumpers. It's us. Those of us who see people being duped need to come together and figure out how to get this noticed by authorities and get it stopped.
ReplyDeleteI am a Pastor and I see countless Christians duped into buying this "investment". Even though I sit down with those I pastor and give them the info off of this site and others, they still believe in the fantasies of Tony and others.
If I talk to senators about this, they can't believe that people are actually buying this stuff and therefore discount it as a serious problem but it is.
I know folks who have sunk retirements into Dinars or are single moms, struggling families who can't afford what they have put in it.
When I said we are the problem I didn't mean that in a belligerent tone. :) I just meant we need to band together and put a stop to these scammers. I'm all in for that. I can't stand to see innocent people duped.
I wish it were that easy. Unfortunately, lying to people is not a crime. It's despicable, deplorable and disgusting but it's not illegal. I'm not sure the authorities can do anything. I'm not sure the authorities will do anything. Of all the things on their plate, I think this ranks pretty low. I think this blog and articles by John Jagerson, Jay Atkinson and others are the most effective tools to end this charade. The dianr RV has become a religion to many people. Not in the sense that it has replaced their own religion but in the sense that it relies on nothing but faith and belief. As a pastor, you probably know how strong that emotion can be. Appealling to the logic and critical thinking portions of the brain is probably more effective than closing their houses of worship (metaphorically speaking, of course). Close one house of worship and they'll just move to another house of worship. This scam thrives on word of mouth. To truly disrupt and put an end to this scam, the faith of dinarians must be broken (or at least challenged). That stops the disciples from spreading the dinar gospel. That stops this scam from proliferating.
DeleteThere is also a clear religions angle to the dinar foolishness. Many state they think the RV is prophesied as part of the rise of new Babylon or whatever. Folks at DV have described what they claim is hearing God tell them to invest and that trumps any notion of logic or economics. Then of course there is the whole "blessing" theme, that dinar investors are going to be "blessed" by the RV. Some may be truthfully expressing their religious views, but I suspect many are sort of using their religious faith to let them believe they will be rich when logic says otherwise and it seems very likely that some of the pumpers have latched onto this theme purely as a sales tactic. I am certainly no biblical scholar, but I have never seen a passage in the Bible along the lines of "turn off your brain and follow me, and oh by the way I'm sending you some investment tips".
DeleteShane, give the senators this link:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.dinartrade.com/blog/dinar-trade-news-buying-what-investors-latch-iraqi-dinar/
And direct them to this quote:
"In 2011, Agha said, his firm (Dinar Trade) sold about $577 million in dinars to U.S. customers, most of whom hold dinars for investment purposes."
577 million USD worth of dinars. The average rate in 2011 was around 1200 USD per million. That's 480 billion dinar. At the actual rate of exchange that dinar that was sold for 577 million USD is only worth 412 million. One company, in one year, ripped people off for 165 million dollars. Add in all the other companies. All the other years. All the people spending hundreds or thousands of dollars on VIP and OSI (go to DV and you'll see people admitting they've spent 1800 USD plus on that worthless garbage) and other nonsense memberships, and the total loss is hundreds of millions of dollars.
It's a serious problem, no doubt.
You can also report people to http://www.ic3.gov/default.aspx
This is a partnership between the FBI and the National White Collar Crime Center. I would guess, but don't know for sure of course, that every single site owner has probably been reported to it before, but you never know, and even if they have, maybe one day there will be a straw that breaks the camels back. A few people have been prosecuted (successfully, the case is practically a slam dunk against almost all these goons), but nowhere near the number I would expect. I suspect you're right and that people just don't think it's as big a problem as it is.
I should add, that 165 million dollar loss is at the current rate. If they were to actually redenominate their currency, which they've been trying to do for several years (but of course politics in Iraq aren't exactly the smoothest machine, even compared to the cluster you know what in this country). If they successfully RD the ultimate loss for "investors" would be FAR greater. I'd guess you could double it, at a minimum, and it could even be a total loss. If they RD'd next year I would estimate the total loss at a minimum of 500 million USD, and could easily be approaching or surpassing a billion.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a religious man, but bless you Shane, for trying to do what's right and help your people.
Oops, had to delete a post on the previous article as I had incorrectly attributed this statement "We have to remember that Iraq was stripped of a massive amount of wealth overnight, so why is it hard to believe that they may gain it back overnight as well?" to NewYork Kevin over at DV. I did not realize he was quoting (without attribution) Adam from his 10/16/13 chat. So this is in fact direct from the horse's ... orifice, so to speak.
ReplyDeletehttp://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/163529-adams-chat-wednesday-october-16/
Ignorant statements like that are what prompted this post. If we were talking about a stock it would be possible to see its value skyrocket like that, but the dinar isn't a stock. For a currency to do that would be disastrous to an economy. Who would spend their money if it was going up in value like that? And when people quit spending the economy tanks. For a currency to increase in value 10% in a year is huge. How many people bought dinar hoping for results like that? Not many, I'm afraid.
Delete"There is also a clear religions angle to the dinar foolishness. Many state they think the RV is prophesied as part of the rise of new Babylon or whatever. Folks at DV have described what they claim is hearing God tell them to invest and that trumps any notion of logic or economics."
ReplyDeleteExactly jrg. This I think is one of the most sad aspects of this scam. Good people with their hearts in the right place are being led around by slick tongued Charlatans who use religion to line their own pockets. I once made the comment on DV that God doesn't care about money or their "investments". Of course I was quickly blasted by the faithful. They claim that God wants all of his followers to be prosperous which is probably true but not by the way of currency scams. God helps those who help themselves and their families not those who use greed and envy to justify an impossible economic event. If God wanted all of his followers to be rich then every Christian on earth would be a billionaire. Obviously this isn't the case because God wants his followers to be rich in love not rich in money.
And a lot of these Christians use their faith as a way to circumvent the common sense God gave them.
DeleteSo true. The only transfer of wealth that I see is money being transferred from Christians to scammers.
DeleteSam,
ReplyDeleteThanks for putting this Site together. It played a big part in reeling me in on reality. I believe if we keep supporting this site, it will continue to help the ones like me that are not to far gone. I afraid that is the only ones that we can help.
Welcome to the dark side, Jay. It's uncomfortable at first, but eventually reality feels just fine.
Delete