The following was posted at Dinar Recaps on Nov. 3. I thought it presented an excellent opportunity to rebut some of these points and help people to understand why the dinar investment is considered a scam. My comments will follow the article.
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For the “Negative Nellies” who told us the Dinar is a Scam
We’ve all heard from someone that investing in the dinar is a scam:
If there is a scam going on, it is the dream stealers trying to rob you of hope. In actuality, they are missing out on the blessings that come with dream building with one’s spouse. That alone is very rewarding, and very telling, into how well two soulmates are really thinking on the same page.
If there is a scam going on, it’s the US govt, Iragi govt and UN holding back info … delaying … the invitable. But post RV/RI you’ll be praised for your insite into this investment by the nay-sayers. (Hindsite investors).
You want an example of a scam? Play the lottery. The odds of winning are astronomically against you. That scam plays on the hopes of the un-informed, or desperate, seeking great rewards without understanding the odds. Governments make unimaginable dollars preying on lottery ticket buyers.
Whereas investing in the dinar, we
can attempt to track international politics and become somewhat educated on our
investment. We are talking the currency of a resource rich country torn by a
former dictatorship, war and civil unrest. In time, this RV/ RI will happen. Maybe not when we expect it,
and maybe not in the manner we expect it, but the value of the Iraqi dinar will
rise.
And eventually, we will see our financial rewards. But with the lottery, as those little balls keep tumbling, the odds of winning never get any better, and you never gain any additional insight on what numbers to pick, and you have to keep buying more tickets for a fresh “chance to win.”
We’ve all heard it’s risky:
Bunk. The most you can lose in dollars, is the amount invested, and that is only if you actually lose your dinar. That is right … if you misplace the currency. After all, dinar dealers have a buy-back policy, right? Does your financial planner or 401K manager have such a policy? ‘Fraid not.
You want to talk risky? Buy into the stock market, without educating yourself. And what can you really learn from a prospectus? And remember, most financial planners are commissioned salespersons. Ask them if they make their living on their commissions, or on the results of the products they invest their clients money into. You’ll be shocked by this scam.
Let’s say you timed the market well, and bought General Dynamics a year ago at about $35/share. And now it is about double that. Forget trading fees, … you doubled. So if you had purchased 5 shares, for $175, you would now have ~$350. Remember these numbers. Double your money in the stock market … but limited realization in terms of dollars gained, but the limited number of dollars invested initially. 100% rate of return in one year.
How about SSI? Counting on this for retirement supplement, now that’s another risky government scam. ‘Nuff said.
How about Real Estate? Let’s compare it to purchasing dinar. Build a spec-house for 200,000 and try to market it for 300,000. That is a 2:1 ratio. Or buy a foreclosure house. Say EFMV $150,000 purchased at auction for $100,000, plus holding costs and closing costs, so max realized gain is maybe $50,000 – again a 2:1 ratio. But you may hold longer than anticipated, (more expense) and lower your selling price and only make $25,000 – now you’re at a ratio of say 5:1. That is saying that for every $5 invested, you only made $1.
If in the example, you are upside down in real estate, you’ve invested 150,000 and got out at 125,000. Now you have lost $25,000. Now compare that to the dinar. In the dinar, you only risk what you invest, and to that I take you back to Dinar Dealers buy-back policy. Further, you did not have to start with a $100,000 investment to try to gain $50,000.
How about buying an estate property below EFMV, and needing to sit on it for three years before reselling it. Even if a profit is gained, the rate of return annualized needs to be divided by three. And was there a positive or a negative cashflow on that property for the three years you held it?
Again, compare that to the dinar. The only argument against the dinar here is that the amount invested was stagnant while you held it.
And if you had the amount of your dinar purchase in a CD right now, could you get 2% return? I doubt it. And to get 2% you’re probably looking at a 5 year hold. ‘Nuff said.
We’ve all heard negative news soundbites:
The few soundbites I’ve heard were so trite, they were laughable. That’s not journalism … it’s sensationalism, not credible research. It’s been the blind leading the blind.
What about how long we have to wait for the RI to exchange.
If you are in an employer based retirement system, how long do you have to work, in terms of years, before you become retirement eligible? And what kind of return do you get? Do you know how to track it? Have you done your homework there? Now that might be a risky investment … a lifetime
Oh, you don’t have an employer based retirement system? Okay. Then look into your Roth or traditional IRA or other “paper assets” in your portfolio. What did you say? You don’t have a portfolio? Or did I just hear you say your portfolio was cut in half in the past two years, as well as your annual earnings? Wow. That was a risky investment, … very risky.
We’ve all heard it’s an pyramid scheme:
Go to work tomorrow to your JOB (just over broke). I’m all for capitalism. I believe in rewarding those that take the calculated risks, those that create jobs for others, those that stabilize local economies. But when you look at the company ladder, well, there is your pyramid at it’s best.
There are the nay-sayers that say the only ones making money on the dinar are the sellers, such as CBI and dinar dealers. Well, time will reveal the truth on that point of contention.
So let’s talk dinar. 100,000 dinar mailed overnight from dinar dealers is approximately $140, + 24 UPS fee, + $1 for the money order = $165 invested. This is a relatively small amount to invest in anything.
Presently the rate is $1=1170 IQD, or $0.0008547/dinar (less than 1/10th cent per dinar). But with shipping, etc, ~= $0.000165 (a trifle above 1/10th cent per dinar.) So we’ll call it $0.001 = 1/10th cent per dinar.
If/when there is an Re-V/I/D, look at the numbers. We’ve heard lows of 1IQD at $0.86 to highs of $3.86.( or much higher) For easy math, I’m just using RV at 1 IQD = $1. That means you $165 investment is now worth $100,000, pretax.
Okay, you’ll have some expense to exchange … minimal in big scheme, but may take your total investment to say $500. So you turn $500 into $99,500 (pretax).
You did not have to risk investing 1,000,000 to make a potential 100,000, or $125,000 to make $25,000.
Better yet, you were not excluded from the opportunity to make this $100,000 because you lacked the $1,000,000 in cash or credit to invest.
And if the increase in the dinar on the currency exchange boards is a gradual float, and not a spike from an RI (not saying this is likely) you will have to decide for yourself when to cash in. But in this scenario, all it needs to do is increase to 1 IQD = 1 penny, and you have a ten fold return on investment, grossing $1000 on a $165 investment. Have your financial planner or realtor or banker deliver that return! Not gonna happen.
Still skeptical? Stay with the gradual float. At a dime, cash in on 25,000 dinar note. Gross $2500 – $165 + fees and tax so say you clear $2000 How is that for a rate of return? Initial investment of $165, net $2000, but n0pot done yet … still holding 75,000 IQD and you’re “playing with house money.” The rate of return calculated on any gain, is infinite … because you already made more than your initial investment on the first cashout.
Now who cares if you have to wait a few years for a float to reach $3.00+. So $3.22 x 75,000IGD = $241,500 (pretax) is pure profit. Understand i am not an advocate of a gradual float, and favor an RI, but wanted to include it in this post, for the negative nellies to chew on as a worst case scenario. I’ll take that return!
Compare the dinar to CDs. No comparison.
Compare the dinar to IRAs/MFs/stocks/bonds, etc. No comparison
Compare the dinar to the lottery. No comparison. How can I say that? In the lottery, the numbers predicate the number of winners, typically one, if any per drawing. But with the dinar, all that exchange are winners. Thus, again I say, no comparison.
Compare the dinar to real estate. I’ve had great returns and can even mathematically show you infinite rates of return, but for the vast majority of people, real estate transactions returns vs the returns on the dinar investment, well … no comparison. Further, how many across the globe are in trouble financially as we speak, because they thought their home was their biggest asset, only to now realize that their mortgage and over-leveraging is eating them up, both financially, and emotionally.
Compare the dinar to pension plans. Took you 20, 25, 30, 35, etc years of your life, and you can only receive pension payments as alloted, under someone elses discression. So, … no comparison.
I’ll conclude with these thoughts. For the negative nellies that say you were scammed when you bought into the dinar investment, with the $165 they did not invest, they may have purchased them something else. Lets say they bought dinner and a movie for two, or some clothes they’ll only wear a few times …
So when your investment is eventually worth (Example only) $99,500 pretax, I hope they enjoyed the dinner, movie and clothes that now cost them ~ $99,500.
And I’m not done yet. Let’s say you pay your taxes and tithes, and then pay off your remaining mortgage, freeing up that $650/mo payment for the next 180 months of your life. Look at how much “not buying dinar” now cost the negative nellies.
So I’m willing to give up a night out with my wife and new shoes. In fact, the reward potential in my household said … what else can we postpone pre RV/RI, … to not have to postpone life any longer?
If you followed all the way through this post, thanks for reading. I needed to vent. I needed to take the frustrations of listening to negative vibes and multiply that with negative reasoning, to produce a positive outcome.
First, the author states that the lottery is a scam. Well the lottery commissions around the country notify all participants of the odds of winning. They don't tell people that they're holding a winning lottery ticket like dinar pumpers have done. People know when they buy lottery tickets that it's a longshot. And as one of my readers DaveD has pointed out, somebody who bought a lottery ticket will hit the jackpot, but nobody who holds dinar is going to get rich. The lottery isn't a scam. People know it's gambling and they know the odds. Dinar investors on the other hand are told that this is a blessing from God, that Dick Cheney, the Fed, and the IMF set this RV up just like they set up the Kuwaiti RV, that there's a global currency reset accompanying the RV, that the US Treasury holds trillions of dinar that they will use to pay off the debt after the RV, that the CBI is reducing the money supply, that the lower denoms have already been printed, that the RV is already done, that special cash-in rates have been negotiated with certain banks .... etc. All lies!
Lottery websites encourage participants to play responsibly. When have you ever seen a dinar dealer site with the same admonition for dinar investors? When have you ever seen a dinar dealer site notifying potential investors that the largest RV in history was less than 40%? When have you ever seen a dinar dealer site mention that the CBI's policy is a stable exchange rate, and that they've announced their intention to demonetize the IQD when they redenominate?
Sure, there are people who ignore the disclaimers from the lottery commissions and spend their rent money on lottery tickets, but it's not because they were lied to. It's because they ignore the advisories. But many dinar investors have spent money that they really can't afford to lose on dinar because they trust somebody who lied to them, and in some cases the liars have a criminal background.
And the statement that the odds in the lottery never improve is completely wrong. You can improve your odds by buying more tickets. For example, if there are 20 million possible combinations that means that the odds of hitting the jackpot with one ticket are 20 million to 1. But if you buy 100 tickets the odds are now 200,000 to 1. If you buy 2000 tickets the odds are now 10,000 to 1. I'm not recommending that you do that, but the point is the odds can be improved with the lottery, but the odds of getting rich by owning dinar will never improve no matter how much you spend. Currencies don't revalue in a way that would make that possible. So whether you approve of the lottery or not, there is no comparison to the dinar.
Next the author claims that the only way that you can lose all your money on the dinar is if you lose your dinars, because dinar dealers have a buyback policy. He doesn't mention however that several times in history countries have closed their borders when they redenominated and people outside of the country were unable to participate in the exchange and lost all they spent on the currency. I'm not saying that this will happen in Iraq, but it has happened before and it's a possibility.
He then goes on to call the stock market, Social Security, and real estate scams. Let's start with the stock market. Sure, if you attempt to pick stocks without doing your due diligence you could lose money. But if you buy the stocks that Warren Buffet is buying over time you will prosper. If you have an investment plan that constantly buys over the years in good times and bad you will gain, because the market over time trends upward. Even people who took a hit on their 401K back in 2008 have seen most all of those losses restored as the DOW is near its all-time high, and if they bought on the dip they came out ahead. Is their risk? Of course there is. But the stock market isn't a scam. It's an investment vehicle that will produce profits over time if used properly.
Social Security? Well, the future of SSI isn't certain, but for now people who have paid into it are able to receive what they're entitled to. Personally I'm inclined to agree with Rick Perry, the presidential candidate from 2012 who called it a Ponzi scheme. But until we run out of new people to pay into it or it becomes insolvent people can still receive their benefits. It might collapse in the future, and if it does we can officially call it a scam then. But until that happens there's still a chance to fix the problem before it's too late. Let's hope our elected representatives are up to the task. Whether Social Security ultimately fails or not, for 75 years people have been getting what they expected from it based on what they paid into it. You can't say that for the dinar.
Real Estate? Historically real estate has provided people with a good way to increase their net worth as they pay off the mortgage on a house that is increasing in value. The problem is that so many people bought real estate during the housing bubble from 2002-2007 and took a hit. Many of them should never have been approved for a mortgage in the first place. Does that make real estate a scam? Of course not. There was dishonesty in the lending industry, but real estate isn't a scam unless you buy a home from somebody who doesn't own it, or that has substandard construction, or that has a lien on it that you aren't informed of. The issue here is fraud. Anything that is sold via dishonesty, even a legitimate product, is a scam if the reason for purchasing is based on a lie.
That's the issue with the dinar. As I've stated since I started this blog, if you're buying dinar because you're going to Iraq and need it for purchases it's not a scam. That's why banks used to offer the exchange service for their customers before speculators started abusing the service. I've also said that the dinar investment isn't a scam if you only bought it thinking it might outperform other investments. While I consider that a highly speculative investment, there have been periods of time over the past ten years where the IQD did exactly that. But come on, how many people have bought dinar from banks and dinar dealers for those reasons? We all know that people are buying dinar because they think it might make them rich, and that won't happen. It can't happen. Not as long as they're on a conventional managed float like all of the other currencies of that region are. Not as long as they're backing tens of trillions of dinar with their foreign currency reserves at 100%.
The author then goes on to dismiss the spread as inconsequential compared to the incredible returns you'll get from an RV to as little as one cent. In his example you buy 100,000 dinar for a total expense of $165. Now, considering that 100,000 dinar is worth less than $86, my math tells me that the spread here is 92%! Sure, 92% is no big deal if you're going to turn that $165 into anywhere from $1650 to $350,000 which would equal an increase of 1000-350,000%. But when you consider the fact that RVs of even 50% don't happen and that Iraq's current arrangement of backing about 84 trillion dinar with $80 billion in their currency reserves only allows for an increase of less than 10%, those spreads of 20-90% start to look pretty steep.
The problem in the dinar community is that people who are ignorant about how currency valuations are determined are making investment decisions based on wrong assumptions. I include myself in that group, because I bought millions of dinar before educating myself in that area. Thousands of us over the years have gone through this same experience and took our losses after coming to understand how the scam works. It feeds on misinformation and wrong assumptions. Assumptions like currencies go up in value as the economy grows. Assumptions like the dinar is backed by oil. Assumptions like people made millions on the German deutschmark and the Kuwaiti dinar (they didn't) so the same could happen with the IQD. The author's numbers are based on impossible events. You might as well try to calculate how much money you'll make if the US dollar increases in value by 100,000%, or how long it would take you to fly to Mars on a magic carpet.
I'll conclude by saying this. The CBI has announced their plan to redenominate (lop). If for some reason that doesn't happen in the next five years, the dinar will not increase in value substantially. It might go up a percent or two here and there, but the IQD will NEVER be worth as much as 2/10 of a penny no matter how long it exists, and even that much of an increase is very unlikely. They will replace it before it increases that much. Chances are it will never be worth more than 1/10 of a penny. When you consider that the vast majority of dinarians have bought in the last five years after the exchange rate was stabilized and are still in the hole, and when you consider that the chances of an increase high enough to get them out of that hole are not very good, the reality of the scam begins to take shape.
And eventually, we will see our financial rewards. But with the lottery, as those little balls keep tumbling, the odds of winning never get any better, and you never gain any additional insight on what numbers to pick, and you have to keep buying more tickets for a fresh “chance to win.”
We’ve all heard it’s risky:
Bunk. The most you can lose in dollars, is the amount invested, and that is only if you actually lose your dinar. That is right … if you misplace the currency. After all, dinar dealers have a buy-back policy, right? Does your financial planner or 401K manager have such a policy? ‘Fraid not.
You want to talk risky? Buy into the stock market, without educating yourself. And what can you really learn from a prospectus? And remember, most financial planners are commissioned salespersons. Ask them if they make their living on their commissions, or on the results of the products they invest their clients money into. You’ll be shocked by this scam.
Let’s say you timed the market well, and bought General Dynamics a year ago at about $35/share. And now it is about double that. Forget trading fees, … you doubled. So if you had purchased 5 shares, for $175, you would now have ~$350. Remember these numbers. Double your money in the stock market … but limited realization in terms of dollars gained, but the limited number of dollars invested initially. 100% rate of return in one year.
How about SSI? Counting on this for retirement supplement, now that’s another risky government scam. ‘Nuff said.
How about Real Estate? Let’s compare it to purchasing dinar. Build a spec-house for 200,000 and try to market it for 300,000. That is a 2:1 ratio. Or buy a foreclosure house. Say EFMV $150,000 purchased at auction for $100,000, plus holding costs and closing costs, so max realized gain is maybe $50,000 – again a 2:1 ratio. But you may hold longer than anticipated, (more expense) and lower your selling price and only make $25,000 – now you’re at a ratio of say 5:1. That is saying that for every $5 invested, you only made $1.
If in the example, you are upside down in real estate, you’ve invested 150,000 and got out at 125,000. Now you have lost $25,000. Now compare that to the dinar. In the dinar, you only risk what you invest, and to that I take you back to Dinar Dealers buy-back policy. Further, you did not have to start with a $100,000 investment to try to gain $50,000.
How about buying an estate property below EFMV, and needing to sit on it for three years before reselling it. Even if a profit is gained, the rate of return annualized needs to be divided by three. And was there a positive or a negative cashflow on that property for the three years you held it?
Again, compare that to the dinar. The only argument against the dinar here is that the amount invested was stagnant while you held it.
And if you had the amount of your dinar purchase in a CD right now, could you get 2% return? I doubt it. And to get 2% you’re probably looking at a 5 year hold. ‘Nuff said.
We’ve all heard negative news soundbites:
The few soundbites I’ve heard were so trite, they were laughable. That’s not journalism … it’s sensationalism, not credible research. It’s been the blind leading the blind.
What about how long we have to wait for the RI to exchange.
If you are in an employer based retirement system, how long do you have to work, in terms of years, before you become retirement eligible? And what kind of return do you get? Do you know how to track it? Have you done your homework there? Now that might be a risky investment … a lifetime
Oh, you don’t have an employer based retirement system? Okay. Then look into your Roth or traditional IRA or other “paper assets” in your portfolio. What did you say? You don’t have a portfolio? Or did I just hear you say your portfolio was cut in half in the past two years, as well as your annual earnings? Wow. That was a risky investment, … very risky.
We’ve all heard it’s an pyramid scheme:
Go to work tomorrow to your JOB (just over broke). I’m all for capitalism. I believe in rewarding those that take the calculated risks, those that create jobs for others, those that stabilize local economies. But when you look at the company ladder, well, there is your pyramid at it’s best.
There are the nay-sayers that say the only ones making money on the dinar are the sellers, such as CBI and dinar dealers. Well, time will reveal the truth on that point of contention.
So let’s talk dinar. 100,000 dinar mailed overnight from dinar dealers is approximately $140, + 24 UPS fee, + $1 for the money order = $165 invested. This is a relatively small amount to invest in anything.
Presently the rate is $1=1170 IQD, or $0.0008547/dinar (less than 1/10th cent per dinar). But with shipping, etc, ~= $0.000165 (a trifle above 1/10th cent per dinar.) So we’ll call it $0.001 = 1/10th cent per dinar.
If/when there is an Re-V/I/D, look at the numbers. We’ve heard lows of 1IQD at $0.86 to highs of $3.86.( or much higher) For easy math, I’m just using RV at 1 IQD = $1. That means you $165 investment is now worth $100,000, pretax.
Okay, you’ll have some expense to exchange … minimal in big scheme, but may take your total investment to say $500. So you turn $500 into $99,500 (pretax).
You did not have to risk investing 1,000,000 to make a potential 100,000, or $125,000 to make $25,000.
Better yet, you were not excluded from the opportunity to make this $100,000 because you lacked the $1,000,000 in cash or credit to invest.
And if the increase in the dinar on the currency exchange boards is a gradual float, and not a spike from an RI (not saying this is likely) you will have to decide for yourself when to cash in. But in this scenario, all it needs to do is increase to 1 IQD = 1 penny, and you have a ten fold return on investment, grossing $1000 on a $165 investment. Have your financial planner or realtor or banker deliver that return! Not gonna happen.
Still skeptical? Stay with the gradual float. At a dime, cash in on 25,000 dinar note. Gross $2500 – $165 + fees and tax so say you clear $2000 How is that for a rate of return? Initial investment of $165, net $2000, but n0pot done yet … still holding 75,000 IQD and you’re “playing with house money.” The rate of return calculated on any gain, is infinite … because you already made more than your initial investment on the first cashout.
Now who cares if you have to wait a few years for a float to reach $3.00+. So $3.22 x 75,000IGD = $241,500 (pretax) is pure profit. Understand i am not an advocate of a gradual float, and favor an RI, but wanted to include it in this post, for the negative nellies to chew on as a worst case scenario. I’ll take that return!
Compare the dinar to CDs. No comparison.
Compare the dinar to IRAs/MFs/stocks/bonds, etc. No comparison
Compare the dinar to the lottery. No comparison. How can I say that? In the lottery, the numbers predicate the number of winners, typically one, if any per drawing. But with the dinar, all that exchange are winners. Thus, again I say, no comparison.
Compare the dinar to real estate. I’ve had great returns and can even mathematically show you infinite rates of return, but for the vast majority of people, real estate transactions returns vs the returns on the dinar investment, well … no comparison. Further, how many across the globe are in trouble financially as we speak, because they thought their home was their biggest asset, only to now realize that their mortgage and over-leveraging is eating them up, both financially, and emotionally.
Compare the dinar to pension plans. Took you 20, 25, 30, 35, etc years of your life, and you can only receive pension payments as alloted, under someone elses discression. So, … no comparison.
I’ll conclude with these thoughts. For the negative nellies that say you were scammed when you bought into the dinar investment, with the $165 they did not invest, they may have purchased them something else. Lets say they bought dinner and a movie for two, or some clothes they’ll only wear a few times …
So when your investment is eventually worth (Example only) $99,500 pretax, I hope they enjoyed the dinner, movie and clothes that now cost them ~ $99,500.
And I’m not done yet. Let’s say you pay your taxes and tithes, and then pay off your remaining mortgage, freeing up that $650/mo payment for the next 180 months of your life. Look at how much “not buying dinar” now cost the negative nellies.
So I’m willing to give up a night out with my wife and new shoes. In fact, the reward potential in my household said … what else can we postpone pre RV/RI, … to not have to postpone life any longer?
If you followed all the way through this post, thanks for reading. I needed to vent. I needed to take the frustrations of listening to negative vibes and multiply that with negative reasoning, to produce a positive outcome.
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First, the author states that the lottery is a scam. Well the lottery commissions around the country notify all participants of the odds of winning. They don't tell people that they're holding a winning lottery ticket like dinar pumpers have done. People know when they buy lottery tickets that it's a longshot. And as one of my readers DaveD has pointed out, somebody who bought a lottery ticket will hit the jackpot, but nobody who holds dinar is going to get rich. The lottery isn't a scam. People know it's gambling and they know the odds. Dinar investors on the other hand are told that this is a blessing from God, that Dick Cheney, the Fed, and the IMF set this RV up just like they set up the Kuwaiti RV, that there's a global currency reset accompanying the RV, that the US Treasury holds trillions of dinar that they will use to pay off the debt after the RV, that the CBI is reducing the money supply, that the lower denoms have already been printed, that the RV is already done, that special cash-in rates have been negotiated with certain banks .... etc. All lies!
Lottery websites encourage participants to play responsibly. When have you ever seen a dinar dealer site with the same admonition for dinar investors? When have you ever seen a dinar dealer site notifying potential investors that the largest RV in history was less than 40%? When have you ever seen a dinar dealer site mention that the CBI's policy is a stable exchange rate, and that they've announced their intention to demonetize the IQD when they redenominate?
Sure, there are people who ignore the disclaimers from the lottery commissions and spend their rent money on lottery tickets, but it's not because they were lied to. It's because they ignore the advisories. But many dinar investors have spent money that they really can't afford to lose on dinar because they trust somebody who lied to them, and in some cases the liars have a criminal background.
And the statement that the odds in the lottery never improve is completely wrong. You can improve your odds by buying more tickets. For example, if there are 20 million possible combinations that means that the odds of hitting the jackpot with one ticket are 20 million to 1. But if you buy 100 tickets the odds are now 200,000 to 1. If you buy 2000 tickets the odds are now 10,000 to 1. I'm not recommending that you do that, but the point is the odds can be improved with the lottery, but the odds of getting rich by owning dinar will never improve no matter how much you spend. Currencies don't revalue in a way that would make that possible. So whether you approve of the lottery or not, there is no comparison to the dinar.
Next the author claims that the only way that you can lose all your money on the dinar is if you lose your dinars, because dinar dealers have a buyback policy. He doesn't mention however that several times in history countries have closed their borders when they redenominated and people outside of the country were unable to participate in the exchange and lost all they spent on the currency. I'm not saying that this will happen in Iraq, but it has happened before and it's a possibility.
He then goes on to call the stock market, Social Security, and real estate scams. Let's start with the stock market. Sure, if you attempt to pick stocks without doing your due diligence you could lose money. But if you buy the stocks that Warren Buffet is buying over time you will prosper. If you have an investment plan that constantly buys over the years in good times and bad you will gain, because the market over time trends upward. Even people who took a hit on their 401K back in 2008 have seen most all of those losses restored as the DOW is near its all-time high, and if they bought on the dip they came out ahead. Is their risk? Of course there is. But the stock market isn't a scam. It's an investment vehicle that will produce profits over time if used properly.
Social Security? Well, the future of SSI isn't certain, but for now people who have paid into it are able to receive what they're entitled to. Personally I'm inclined to agree with Rick Perry, the presidential candidate from 2012 who called it a Ponzi scheme. But until we run out of new people to pay into it or it becomes insolvent people can still receive their benefits. It might collapse in the future, and if it does we can officially call it a scam then. But until that happens there's still a chance to fix the problem before it's too late. Let's hope our elected representatives are up to the task. Whether Social Security ultimately fails or not, for 75 years people have been getting what they expected from it based on what they paid into it. You can't say that for the dinar.
Real Estate? Historically real estate has provided people with a good way to increase their net worth as they pay off the mortgage on a house that is increasing in value. The problem is that so many people bought real estate during the housing bubble from 2002-2007 and took a hit. Many of them should never have been approved for a mortgage in the first place. Does that make real estate a scam? Of course not. There was dishonesty in the lending industry, but real estate isn't a scam unless you buy a home from somebody who doesn't own it, or that has substandard construction, or that has a lien on it that you aren't informed of. The issue here is fraud. Anything that is sold via dishonesty, even a legitimate product, is a scam if the reason for purchasing is based on a lie.
That's the issue with the dinar. As I've stated since I started this blog, if you're buying dinar because you're going to Iraq and need it for purchases it's not a scam. That's why banks used to offer the exchange service for their customers before speculators started abusing the service. I've also said that the dinar investment isn't a scam if you only bought it thinking it might outperform other investments. While I consider that a highly speculative investment, there have been periods of time over the past ten years where the IQD did exactly that. But come on, how many people have bought dinar from banks and dinar dealers for those reasons? We all know that people are buying dinar because they think it might make them rich, and that won't happen. It can't happen. Not as long as they're on a conventional managed float like all of the other currencies of that region are. Not as long as they're backing tens of trillions of dinar with their foreign currency reserves at 100%.
The author then goes on to dismiss the spread as inconsequential compared to the incredible returns you'll get from an RV to as little as one cent. In his example you buy 100,000 dinar for a total expense of $165. Now, considering that 100,000 dinar is worth less than $86, my math tells me that the spread here is 92%! Sure, 92% is no big deal if you're going to turn that $165 into anywhere from $1650 to $350,000 which would equal an increase of 1000-350,000%. But when you consider the fact that RVs of even 50% don't happen and that Iraq's current arrangement of backing about 84 trillion dinar with $80 billion in their currency reserves only allows for an increase of less than 10%, those spreads of 20-90% start to look pretty steep.
The problem in the dinar community is that people who are ignorant about how currency valuations are determined are making investment decisions based on wrong assumptions. I include myself in that group, because I bought millions of dinar before educating myself in that area. Thousands of us over the years have gone through this same experience and took our losses after coming to understand how the scam works. It feeds on misinformation and wrong assumptions. Assumptions like currencies go up in value as the economy grows. Assumptions like the dinar is backed by oil. Assumptions like people made millions on the German deutschmark and the Kuwaiti dinar (they didn't) so the same could happen with the IQD. The author's numbers are based on impossible events. You might as well try to calculate how much money you'll make if the US dollar increases in value by 100,000%, or how long it would take you to fly to Mars on a magic carpet.
I'll conclude by saying this. The CBI has announced their plan to redenominate (lop). If for some reason that doesn't happen in the next five years, the dinar will not increase in value substantially. It might go up a percent or two here and there, but the IQD will NEVER be worth as much as 2/10 of a penny no matter how long it exists, and even that much of an increase is very unlikely. They will replace it before it increases that much. Chances are it will never be worth more than 1/10 of a penny. When you consider that the vast majority of dinarians have bought in the last five years after the exchange rate was stabilized and are still in the hole, and when you consider that the chances of an increase high enough to get them out of that hole are not very good, the reality of the scam begins to take shape.
I think you addressed it pretty well Sam. This poster almost reads like he (or she) is trying to convince themselves that they didn't get scammed rather than trying to convince anybody else.
ReplyDeleteThis post (and others I've read just like it) pre-supposes that the RV has to happen and, therefore, it is not a scam. It's not a question of IF the RV ever occurs with these guys, it's just a question of WHEN it occurs. It's never even crossed their minds that the RV won't or can't happen. They have become so thoroughly convinced that the RV is a certainty, they don't even consider that an option. To them, it's as certain as the sun coming up every day. Heck, anything is a good investment if you SUPPOSE it's going to go up in value. To suppose is to imagine. It's not real. If I suppose gas goes back to being $1 a gallon again then it might make me happy thinking about all the money I'd save driving to work but it wouldn't make a bit of difference about what I pay next time I fill up. My imaginary price won't have anything to do with the real price. It's just a fantasy. I'm sure it's embarassing to admit (it might even be impossible for those that truly believe the dinar is going to RV someday), but anybody that bought dinar supposing that it would go up in value, got scammed. Their imaginary world will never look like the real world.
That's exactly the truth, networth. The general panicked style of writing smacks of desperation. And the entire "Oh yeah! Well what about x" post is built around the common propaganda techniques of 1. "Two wrongs make a right", 2. "False equivalence", and 3. An endless stream of "strawmen" & "red herrings" ("let's say you bought a dinner or movie for two" = Almost word for word identical to what was pumped on CMKX forums a few years back when some started to panic and seek peer comfort amongst the "faithful").
DeleteFrom our buddy Enorrste.
ReplyDelete11-16-2013 Newshound Guru Enorrste
11-16-2013 Newshound Guru Enorrste Economic Reform Law must be passed prior to the float and this could take awhile. The bill was sent back from Parliament to the Government for revision. Parliament is out until the 17th and now is talking about taking a vacation until mid-December. In other words, it doesn't look promising for the remainder of this year. [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]
Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/165828-11-16-2013-newshound-guru-enorrste/#ixzz2l1WS3dpW
Just like the delusional author of the ReCraps article, Enorrste pumps the idea of the float of the Iraqi Dinar. I am guessing that Enorrste has invested so much emotionally into the dinar and has given so much bad finacial advice to so many friends and family that he simply refuses to deal with reality and clings to any rediculous theory on how the dinar can increase by 1000s of percent. This is the same guy who just months ago said that Iraq will force Iraqis to exchnage all of their dinar for USD so that Iraq could then RV by 100,000%. Delusion is strong in the dinar fantasy because so much reality has been ignored for the pursuit of overnight riches.
Good idea bringing this opinion piece over from ReCraps for comment Sam. Just like thousands of RV dreamers the author of the piece fails to understand that RVs on a large scale simply do not and cannot exist in economics. Pumpers and scam artist on the internet have done a great job of convincing thousands that massive RVs are a real thing and unfortunately most do not have the economic education to know any better. I know that I didnt at first. That is all that this whole dinar scam comes down to. RVs are fantasy and cannot exist in any economic environment.
Lets say that Iraq floats the dinar tomorrow. The market will then decide the value. OK. The market value inside of Iraq for the people who actually use the dinar is much lower that the actual exchange rate so why would anyone think that a market driven float of the dinar would increase its value? Especially by 300,000%. Has anyone noticed lately that Iraq is blowing people up daily? The place is unstable as countries come. Not only that they have a joke of a GDP based soley off of oil. Nobody wants Dinar except delusion Enorrste victims.
Isn't this the same clown that was ridiculing everyone on this site a few months back? Wasn't he bragging about some article that came out that supported the idea of floating the dinar? If I remember correctly, he was gloating that he "won" and the "douchebags" (presumably, the posters on this site) lost. The discussion was over (in his mind) and he was vindicated. Yet here are, several months later. There is no RV and there is no float. But there is a lot of violence, corruption, and chaos. There is more of that than ever. Over 6,000 people will be killed in Iraq this year. There is a lot of "exploding" that is going on in Iraq. But none of it involves the value of the dinar.
DeleteYeah that's the one. The one who posted under the name "Steve", who claimed to be a "professional Forex trader", yet it turned out he didn't even know what a trading "pip" was and got his maths wrong by a factor of 1,000x... The one with a supposed "degree in economics" who thinks printing more money makes a currency's value go UP. The one who ended up pushing some weird communist fantasy of a centrally planned Iraqi Government forcibly confiscating 99.9% of banknotes from ordinary Iraqi's without compensation (non redenomination) ;-)
DeleteIn fact, Sam had to correct his chronically bad maths before several times too...
And Sam has also already posted his string of failed predictions and outright lies:-
2-29-2010 - "Iraq will RV at $2.65 by March 1, 2010 or the budget has no credibility" - Enorrste
12-4-2011 - "Iraq has to have a tradeable currency to be considered a sovereign nation, so they will need to RV before Maliki meets with Obama December 12. - Enorrste
2-26-2012 - "the 2013 budget…takes effect 1/1/2013, so they must do the RV prior to that." - Enorrste
etc, etc.
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2013/07/dont-listen-to-gurus.html?showComment=1374384406899#c5155036205595906929
Same ol' failed pumping year after year after year...
Right!! Let's not forget the same douchebag who also claims to have a Ph.d which at best would not even be in underwater BB stacking 101. He wrote some bull crap document which he alleges is the key to understanding the dinar investment like the Iraq Project document that Joey and Vic from The Gatekeepers, formerly from the IQD Team, prior to that Vic was with the MTT (Midnight Think Tank) team and Joey with Revalue.us site. Bunch of self proclaimed genius' yet NONE of them have the slightest understanding in economics nor banking / fiscal policy. Certainly no experience either.
DeleteIn the "if you say it often enough, you will believe it" category. On DV (http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/162628-deleting-three-zeros-from-currency/page-3#ixzz2l47Z3bxu) we this little gem
ReplyDelete"I know you think the IQD is overvalued but can you tell us why when they have the reserves to back their currency 250%. We know the US can not back the dollar. Not even close."
Note how these are just stated as facts. The 250% I think comes from one article where some minister or other says Iraq has foreign reserves equal to 250% of IQD in cash. With about 35T in M0 (physical cash) and 80+B USD in reserves that is indeed about 2.5x . But, of course that has nothing to do with the exchange rate since for a pegged currency you at least have to back M1. Money moves freely between M0 and M1 so it is just nonsense to say you are only going to back physical cash. The difference between M2 and M1 are assets that are not as easily cashed out due to early withdrawal penalties etc. so one might argue that fully backing M2 is not needed (as with Kuwait) but Iraq has chosen to do so. So the idea of Iraq having the reserves to back their currency (not just their cash) by 250% is just plain false.
Then there is the comparison to the poor old US that can not back the dollar. Well of course not as its a floating currency. The definition of which is that the exchange rate is set in real time by whatever buyers (financial institutions mostly) are willing to pay for dollars in various other currencies.
As for the dinar being overvalued that likely refers to the street price being a bit higher (in IQD/USD) then the CBI pegs., But, I would say its valued correctly since that value is limited by the money supply divided by reserves. Iraq has 15% or so of head room but they very likely want to keep the value as it is and use that 15% in case inflation stats to be a problem and they need to inch the rate upward to try and counter that. The street price is higher (worse for dinar holders), but I'd guess that is due to dollars being hard to come by unless used for import. The CBI limits the auctions to the needs of importers so if you just want dollars to hold you will have to pay more (Dinars).
You know I love your site Sam and often come here so that I can look at reality instead of nonsense. I have family members who are tied into this stupid thing and sent to me Dinar Guru today where they are at it again. This is what Mnt Goat is saying today "As most should now know the final revaluation did occur in Iraq yesterday and at a rate of $3.44. Many have been asking me why do we have to wait for the rate of the IQD in Iraq to reach $3.87 prior to rates in USA being activated"...
ReplyDeleteread more: http://www.dinarguru.com/#ixzz2l6VVJPGk. There are several other posts from this person and our old friends Tony and Okie. I just can't understand the fantasy world these people live in. I have said it before and I will say it again it would be funny if it were not so sad and scary. Thanks for keeping the world sane
Yeah that's him networth. That was back in July and one of my responses to his silliness was this.............
ReplyDeleteIraq will not float the current dinar. Guess what......I am right on that so far and you are wrong.
LOL.....looks like I am still right months later and he is still wrong. Shocking huh? A guru is wrong again.
I am convinced that he is doing anything he can to cling onto the RV lie because he is solely responsible for 100s if not 1000s of people wasting money on the dinar scam and he cant face having to deal with that fact.
And just today AGAIN that poppy3 made yet another claim.....that the dinar will revalue at higher than 3.42. Of course that is based on his so called "secret contacts" who have never been correct before but then again neither has this poppy character. He previously claimed we would see a reval of the dinar by thanksgiving. LOL..... between him and that BGG, they have pumped and pumped and pumped their bull for years. Enorste is just a lying know nothing idiot! Then we have 'OL randy koonce who is affiliated with the same dinar dealer as BGG. Koonce has made countless claims but the sheeple still cling to his every word. Most that listen to him hang out in dinar updates chat room day in and day out. I guess they have no life other than dinar which is more sad then the fact that they are brainless sheeple.
ReplyDeleteof course now just yesterday that poppy 3 has moved his prediction from before thanksgiving. this is his common method of operation. he makes a prediction than has a plethora of excuses on why it would happen then extends it. all the sheeple on his site believe him still after YEARS of this garbage! amazing how many brainless people exist! then BGG stands up for poppy when the sheeple get restless basically threatening lawsuits and such which is all BGG is good for besides a laugh!
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
DeleteI believe that same person that writes (Okie's) comments and lie's, wrote this. Nuff Said !
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work Sam!
Not sure if the last comment went thru. But this morning I contacted the man who arrested me on federal racketeering charges. It's a long story of how I was arrested and came to faith in Jesus.
ReplyDeleteHe is a special agent with the FBI. Let's pray and hope he takes this seriously and puts a stop to this nonsense.
Thanks to this blog I was able to give them TNT Tony's real name.
If this is a repeat feel free to delete it.
Shane
I'm glad t hear that you've taken action, Shane. Hopefully we'll see some results from that before long. Brad's trial starts in a couple of weeks. Hopefully we'll see more indictments handed down shortly thereafter.
DeleteGreat job. However, I'm sure the Feds are familiar with the 'Renfrow' last name who are from NC where Tony's brother Ray (Raymond) was found guilty for fraudulent filing of a clients taxes in excess of $1 million. He also used scam trust to carry out his farce practice. For those of you who may have listened to some of his old recordings from years ago while on PTR know that Tony has had his brother on regarding trusts. These guys are pathetic and more so their followers who after all of this continue to munch on their cow chips.
Deletehttp://www.justice.gov/tax/txdv09219.htm
Okie had this posted on recaps last night and got 100 comments pretty much thanking him for doing it. Unbelievable!
ReplyDelete..okieoilman] I AM RECEIVING VERY POSITIVE INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT--PRAY THIS IS SO.
because the brainless sheeple that follow okie, THC tony and all the other cast of characters, are just complete and total idiots! how someone could listen to this crap daily and still think these people have a clue is amazing. same with poppy and bgg, they have been going on and on and on for years......just extending dates for a reval of the dinar time after time, year after year, and their silly chat room followers keep listening to them. its sad that people use hours and hours or their lives paying attention to this bull! then poppy makes his usual bold statements followed by some religious banter to keep the religious loons following! its a never ending cycle of bullsh.......t
DeleteReCraps actually posted a few dissenting comments on Okie's previous diatribe stating that he was hurt that folks were speaking poorly of him, and that they didn't believe him. He's definitively the Wizard of Oz....the charlatan in the room behind the "Great and Powerful".....pulling levers....blowing smoke....but at the end of the day, just a side-show medicine man......
ReplyDeleteReCraps as you call it is in the business of pumping for certain gurus like Okie, Bluwolf and others. Try to post something slightly negative or opposing to Okie's post and it will NOT get posted. They generate commentary as well to continue to get traffic to their site for all of the advertisers. I'm sure most if not all of you know that by now but if you don't then here it is.
DeleteYes, I am well aware of that. I was just a little surprised that a few negative comments made it to post.
DeleteI'm a relative new comer to this whole thing... I bought a couple hundred bucks worth of IQD a few months ago based on a friend's fervent recommendation. I trusted that my friend knew what he was talking about, but me being a skeptical doubter by nature I did some brief due diligence homework. Even though it smacked of scammish intent, I figured I'd play it kind of like my theory on casinos: never walk in the door with more $ (or a debit card lol) than I'm willing to NOT walk out with. I understand fully that the RV will most likely not ever happen, and CANNOT happen at the rates being thrown around by the mindless hopium addicts. But, I figured $250 was a relatively cheap fix and it's easier than going to the gas station twice a week to buy PowerBall tickets. Either way my financial day-dreams are fed. Meanwhile, life goes on and I continue to live in the real world.
ReplyDeleteWhat I absolutely cannot fathom is the ability of all the blind faith sheep on all the boards (recraps especially) to ingest and actually BELIEVE such copious amounts of utter tripe. And for so long! After just a couple weeks I'm so tired of their s**t I want to scream. Especially all the religious rhetoric that's thrown around... referring to the mythical RV as "the blessing", etc (even if it's a bogus investment, it's still an INVESTMENT!). As if talking about tithing some amount of money you don't (and won't ever) have will make whatever deity you pray to inclined to bestow monetary bliss upon you. WTF? The only thing I can come up with is thinking wayyy back to Psych 201 and "true believer syndrome", where the deluded person continues to believe, regardless of hard factual proof that they've been deceived. Or maybe just straight psychosis... either way the sheeple have broke with reality.
I've tried to explain to my dinarian friend how this truly is a scam, and CAN'T possibly happen like he thinks, but he's drank the KoolAid part and parcel. Nothing I say gets through, he basically quotes the reasoning of the post from recraps. I feel bad for him... I know he has a significant amount of his retirement tied up in notes that aren't fit to wallpaper an outhouse. But I've tried to reason with him...to no avail. He's wearing his logic-proof vest apparently.
And it's absolutely true that recraps doesn't post dissenting comments. I think they allow some of the milder ones to go on the board just to maintain the facade of being unbiased, but I know I've tried to post 6 or 7 times there and only 1 has gotten through, because my attempted posts were all critical of one GooRoo or another (I tried to post something about the plausibility of a 350,000% rate of return...take a guess if that went LOL). The only went through was a 'here here's for one of the other dissenters. It's downright sickening the amount of posts there that are nothing but religious adulation for the GooRoos (esp when the Goos get their feelings hurt)... "we LOVE you Okie!" "GOD bless you TNT" "what would we do without you MtnGoat? Thank you so much!"... vomit.
Thanks for maintaining this blog and giving me a chance to rant. Apologies in advance for typos/grammar...typed this on my phone lying in bed...my GF is snoring like a beast and I couldn't sleep. LOL.
Welcome aboard, Jack. If everybody would follow your example of only buying a couple hundred worth this blog wouldn't be needed. Unfortunately people are buying far beyond their ability to absorb. I got an email the other day from a man who said his friend is in it for $100,000. Hundreds of thousands have been lost in reserve orders. When this thing comes to its inevitable anti-climatic end the devestation will be incredible. Families will be torn apart, churches will split, friendships severed .... all because of dinar douchebags exploiting inexperienced currncy speculators. We're able to wake a few people up here and there, but I'm afraid most are like your friend and will never listen until it's too late.
DeleteIf your gf is sleeping well I'm assuming she doesn't own dinar.
Jack, you're right that $250 isn't much to worry about, but wrong when making casino or Powerball comparisons. Casinos and lotteries are not scams. You have a legitimate (but small, of course) chance to win big with both. The dinar is a scam, and you quite literally have zero chance to win big. It isn't a million to 1. It isn't a billion to 1. It isn't a trillion to 1. It is 0.
ReplyDeleteAnd you have a nearly zero chance to break even. One of the things the "realists" on some message boards constantly post is that even if it never RVs 10,000%+, it will likely RD and then go to 3 dollars +, netting a 200%+ return, or worst case, you sell it and break even.
These things are simply not true. They're lies told so that people think there's zero or very little risk, which is far from the case. Most people have paid between 1000 and 1200 USD per million, which means they've lost 15-40% right off the top, meaning that right now they can probably sell and only lose that much. That's not even close to breaking even, and the losses are only likely to get worse from here on, because what most people don't understand is that a rapidly appreciating currency (even appreciating 30%+ so that you could break even) isn't really desirable for a country.
As an economy increases in productivity (which Iraqs has done) there frequently is greater demand for currency with which to do business. Unfortunately for dinar investors, there's two problems with this resulting in a profit for them:
1. The USD is in heavy use in Iraq, and since Iraqs oil is sold for USD, it will absorb a lot of this increase in demand for currency.
2. Increase in demand for dinar can be satisfied in one of two ways. They can keep the supply of dinar stable and let each dinar appreciate in value, or they can keep the value of each dinar stable, and increase the supply. The end result is exactly the same in terms of the total value of the money supply. You only have to spend 30 seconds looking at the CBI's financials to see which method they have decided to go with: they're putting trillions of dinar into circulation every year, and keeping the value stable. This isn't opinion or speculation, it's a cold hard fact.
That's why it's very unlikely that the dinar will even appreciate 20% anytime soon, and why a 100-200% appreciation is essentially impossible. They appreciate the currency 100%, a significant amount of that value goes into the hands of foreign currency speculators. They print 100% more currency and put it into circulation in Iraq, and 100% of it stays in the hands of Iraqis (or gets traded for USD, which is just as good, if not better).
Its not a scam when you can get your money back.
ReplyDeleteThe okies, montanas, and tnt's are a scam, not an investment you can get your money back from
People define "scam" differently, no doubt. Merriam-Webster defines it as "a dishonest way to make money by deceiving people". According to that definition the dinar investment is a scam. The Free Dictionary defines it as "A fraudulent business scheme; a swindle". The DOJ says that misrepresenting the CBI's currency reform as a revaluation rather than a redenomination is fraudulent. They also said that lying about your background to sell dinar is fraudulent, as well as misrepresenting EO13303 and the amount of dinar held by the US Treasury. People might have managed to get most or even all of their money back, but the reasons for buying it were based on lies, and that's the issue. If dinar dealers and promoters/gurus/pumpers were telling people the truth dinar sales wouldn't have been 5% of what they are. And when Iraq does finally RD there could be hundreds of thousands left with worthless currency, so they wouldn't get their money back. In that case it would be a scam by your definition.
Delete