There was a discussion at Dinar Vets about our friend Marcus Curtis' post a while back entitled "Trials for Dinar Holders". In that post MC postulated that Iraq was actually using dinar sales to feed their foreign currency reserves, and that there are about 25 trillion dinar in the hands of speculators. The responses were predictable. "He's a guitarist and an armchair economist" .... "That was before Maliki was removed" ... "It's just a blog; he ddn't even bother to purchase a domain name" ... etc. No real discussion occurred as to the links Marcus provided or the facts he presented.
First of all, the fact that he plays the guitar has nothing to do with whether or not his analysis is valid. After all, what qualifications does Adam "Wolfyman" Montana or any other guru have? What matters is whether or not his theory holds water, and if it's based on facts.
Second, as I've mentioned for some time Maliki has nothing to do with whether or not there's an RV. He's been gone for four months and no RV. I'm confident that four months or four years from now there still won't be any RV of the IQD. Nothing more than a few % anyway. The bloated money supply of the IQD is the issue, not Maliki or Obama or Madame Wu or anybody else. It's about the numbers.
And third, Marcus has never run any ads or made any money from his site, so why should he purchase a domain name? And again, domain name or no domain name ... what counts is facts. It's a fact that the CBI financials show 34 trillion dinar outside of banks, and that less than 10 trillion can be accounted for within Iraq. It's a fact that their money supply steadily increased from 2004-2013. (It seems to have stalled over the past year or so. By a strange coincidence dinar sales have really fallen during that time. Dealers don't really need to buy from out of country any more because they can get all the dinar they want from disillusioned specuators, which would support Marcus' theory that they have used the sale of dinar to grow their foreign currency reserves. No dinar exports for USD = no FCR growth = no expanding money supply. With fewer USD flowing into Iraq for oil due to lower oil prices, and with fewer USD being exchangd for IQD, my guess is that the market value of the IQD will take a hit in 2015 which could trigger another round of inflation, which ironically enough could lead to an increase in the official value of the IQD from its currenct value of $.000857. I wouldn't be surprised to seem them bump the value up a few % next year. Anyway, back to the original topic.) And it's also a fact that dinar from outside of Iraq wasn't accepted during the previous two currency changeovers in Iraq. Marcus provides links for all of that.
So LAC (the lady who asked if there was anything to what Marcus said) take note of the fact that nobody who responded to you dealt with any of these facts. Then form your own conclusions.
On Nov. 17 Breitling said that in the last five or six years the dinar has gone up 26% while the S&P has only gone up about 12%. I thought it might be nice to look at some charts to see if there's anything to this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5Egspc+interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%2210y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D
As you can see the S&P six years ago was at 903, and today it's at 2041. That would be an increase of 126%, or about 21% per year. Now let's take a looksie at the dinar.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=IQD&to=USD&view=10Y
As you can see, the dinar was at $.00085 six years ago and today it's at $.000857 which is an increase of about 8/10 of 1%, or about .0013% per year.
While I'm talking about B, let me issue a reminder about his claim that the Ministry of Planning's feasibility study told us that they're going to raise the value to $1 and eventually $3. That study said that they recommended REDUCING the exchange rate from $3.20 to $1.13. The IQD was never valued at more than a tenth of a penny. The feasibility study is from the Saddam era and is 100% irrelevant. The issue that they were adressing was that depreciation of the Saddam dinar during the 80s had rendered the $3.20 valuation obsolete.
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/08/mop-report.html
It turns out that the study was from 1984 and was revised in 1990. As our friend Brian has pointed out more than once, basing your dinar speculation on this feasibility study makes about as much sense as shopping for a house based on real estate prices from the '70s. I wrote about this two Decembers ago.
In turn, The Guidance For Technical And Economic Feasibility Studies And Post-Project Assessment Of Development Project (Regulations No. 1 for the Year of 1984 and it’s amendment for the year of 1990) has specifies a series of steps to be undertaken, which lead to the completion of a Capital Budget.
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/12/seasons-greetings.html
Also, as you've probably heard in the news the price of oil has dropped about 40% since June. What does that mean for dinar investors? Well, it's good news of course! This means they'll have to hurry up and RV because they're going to be hard up for cash, you see. At least that's what you'll hear from the gurus. Interestingly enough it's also good news for dinarians when the price of oil goes up, because they'll be able to RV at a higher rate. And it's also good news when the price remains stable because Iraq needs stability, you know. So no matter what happens it's all good. (facepalm)
The truth is things are really bad in Iraq, what with ISIS controlling a good amount of the country and sectarian division and all. This slump in oil prices (remember that oil revenues account for nearly 90% of their GDP) only makes things worse. The gurus won't tell you this of course, but I will. Right about now anybody with any sense who has dinar ought to be questioning this "investment". Don't worry, you're not alone. I went through the same epiphany a little over three years ago, and many of my readers did as well. We all make mistakes in life. The important thing is that you learn from them and move on.
And finally, I'd like to issue my annual reminder that the gurus love to predict an RV by the end of the year, and they're ALWAYS wrong. They'll be wrong this time, too.
Happy Holidays!
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Great post as ever, Sam. This paragraph sums everything up:-
ReplyDelete"Also, as you've probably heard in the news the price of oil has dropped about 40% since June. What does that mean for dinar investors? Well, it's good news of course! This means they'll have to hurry up and RV because they're going to be hard up for cash, you see. At least that's what you'll hear from the gurus. Interestingly enough it's also good news for dinarians when the price of oil goes up, because they'll be able to RV at a higher rate. And it's also good news when the price remains stable because Iraq needs stability, you know. So no matter what happens it's all good. (facepalm)"
If they haven't "got it" by now, they never will. Have a Good Christmas all.
some gurus claimed to have prove that special group cashing out at high contract rate with NDA. Is his truth?
DeleteDennis, No! Read this site. All the info is in here about this scam
DeleteDennis, unfortunately it's all lies. Nobody is going to pay high rates for a currency when it can still be purchased for 1/10 of a penny. And NDAs (non-disclosure agreements) are used for business transactions, not currency exchanges.
DeleteThanks Sam,
DeleteBelow statement from one of Guru site. I am so so confused and tired of their BS. And don't understand what their trying to achieve! Can you Please explain.
FRIENDS & FAMILY UPDATE # 2 (WHAT IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE IN DAYS)
WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS THERE ARE NOW WEALTH MANAGERS AT THE SAME BANK DOING EXCHANGES AND BUY/SELL AGREEMENTS WHO HAVE FRIENDS WHO ARE ALSO WEALTH MANAGERS AT THE SAME BANK,AND THEY ARE NOT DOING EXCHANGES AND BUY/SELL AGREEMENTS WITH THEIR CLIENTS , AND THE BANK TELLERS AND CALL CENTER STAFF AND PEOPLE HAVE ALL OF THE DATA AND ACCOUNT INFORMATION.......
IT WAS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THIS TOOK PLACE................
SO TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF WHAT IS TAKING PLACE IS YOU NOW HAVE PEOPLE WHO ARE MEMBERS OF THE SAME ELITE GOLF COUNTRY CLUBS, SOME HAVE EXCHANGED AND DONE BUY/SELL AGREEMENTS AND OTHERS HAVE NOT
AND THESE PEOPLE BANK AT THE SAME BANK
NOW THAT THE LEAD BANK IS #1 FROM THIS PROCESS, BANK STAFF, BANK TELLERS, BANK WEALTH MANAGERS, ANGRY WHALES, ANGRY CALL CENTER STAFF, ANGRY BANK I.T. STAFF, ANGRY TIER 2 BANKS, ANGRY POLITICAL GROUPS, ANGRY PEOPLE WHO COMPLETED BUY/SELL AGREEMENTS, ANGRY WHALES AND POLITICIANS WHO COMPLETED SKR TRANSACTIONS AT LOW RATES, ANGRY BRANCH MANAGERS, ANGRY "LEAD BANK" BRANCH EMPLOYEES NATIONWIDE, AND "LEAD BANK" NATIONWIDE LOCATIONS, WHERE THE ENTIRE STAFF HOLDS THE IQD/VND, ANGRY CUSTOMER SERVICE AGENTS, EMPLOYEES WHO WHO LIED TO CUSTOMERS ABOUT THE IQD/VND, ANGRY FOREX TRADING DESK STAFF AND CUSTOMER SERVICE EMPLOYEES WHO PROCESSED VND/IQD CURRENCY SALE ORDERS, ANGRY COMPETING BANKS WHO WATCHED THE LEAD BANK RISE TO # 1, BRANCH MANAGERS AND BANK VP'S WHO WERE TOLD TO LIE TO CUSTOMERS ABOUT THE IQD BEING A SCAM, BANK EMPLOYEES WITH SAVED IQD IS A SCAM INTRA OFFICE BANK MEMOS , BANK TELLERS AND WEALTH MANAGERS WITH SCREEN SHOTS OF CLIENTS OLD ACCOUNT BALANCES AND NEW ACCOUNT BALANCES, BANK STAFF WHO HAVE FAMILY MEMBERS WITH CURRENCY WHO WERE NOT INVITED OR ALLOWED TO EXCHANGE, ANGRY BANKS AND FIRMS WHO PAY PEOPLE TO SEND THEM DATA, SCREEN SHOTS, ETC..........................
ARE ABOUT TO LAUNCH A CAMPAIGN IN DAYS, VIA GLOBAL SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFOMRS, THAT IS FUNDED BY LEAD BANK EXISTING CLIENTS, WHALES, CUSTOMERS, COMPETING BANKS,TIER 2 BANKS LEFT OUT, POLITICIANS, BANK MANAGEMENT, BANK WEALTH MANAGERS, AND EXISTING EMPLOYEES WHO WERE LEFT OUT........................
DINARLAND NEEDS TO PRAY THE RIGHT THING IS DONE, AS THE GROUP WITH THIS CAMPAIGN HAS THEIR LAUNCH DATE SET IN THE COMING DAYS!!!
Dennis, I wouldn't believe anything Exogen says. If he said the sun is rising in the east I'd be tempted to doubt it. I did a post on him a while back. He's a major douche. http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2014/02/exogen-post-and-response.html
DeleteDennis, currency exchange rates are universal. They are widely known and accepted. They aren't a secret. Why in the world would somebody pay more than 1\10th of a penny for a dinar? There are dozens of suppliers at that price. Whoever suggests it is a liar, plain and simple.
DeleteWhy do people lie so much?
DeleteNice one Sam,
ReplyDeleteEnjoyed the post as every.
Hope to catch up with you and Marcus soon
Bye for now.
Yet, unsurprisingly, Adam Montana, the head clown himself, is optimistic and encouraged by all the progress in Iraq. It must be hard to keep stringing those VIP members along. How long can that schtick persist? Longer than I could have possibly imagined. Paying and paying and paying (and paying and paying) for secret financial and wealth management advice before you have any finances or wealth to manage is patently stupid.
ReplyDeleteYea interesting that Montana seems to be shifting his focus to his awesome (in his mind anyway) plans for protecting your wealth from the nasty nasty government. How dare they demand taxes!! With his "I'm not holding back anymore" theme he looks to be cultivating the survivalist anti-government folks as much as the IQD faithful. Perhaps he's thinking that someday the IQD RV myth will be obvious to everyone and then he can fall back on that being just one tiny part of his overall patriot protection plan, so you should of course keep paying VIP.
DeleteIts so typical of the RV folks to make comments entirely off the point when trying to block any information from piercing the Koolaid veil. Ironically, in this case I think an argument on the merits shows Marcus' argument to be wrong (just about the points in the post referenced above, not that the RV is a myth, which of course it is).
Delete10 trillion at most in Iraq (Sam you say this too) and 25T outside the country? We talking physical cash here right? M0 is 35T or so (maybe 40T by now) so 3/4 of that being out of the country would be extremely odd I think. Its classic guru speak to say Iraq is actually running on USD and now IQD, but I see no evidence for this. He calculates the amount leaving Iraq (I think) by looking at the money supply (M1) growth each year and gets at least 25T since the early 2000s (I thinks its closer to double that). But he also says that replacement notes are issued to "fill the gap" caused by the exported ones, how can there only be 10T in the country? This seems a bit inconsistent to begin with.
But the main flaw as I see it is that the growth of the money supply in perfect sync with the CBI reserves is explained by their trade surplus, and that is a good thing for a growing economy. 70B USD (in 2013) comes in from oil that the MOF exchanges for IQD to spend in the government's budget. But only 60B USD worth go out to buy imports (via the auctions) so the CBIs reserves grown by 10B USD and M1 by 11T IQD and the ratio remains the same. So I don’t see the argument that this shows massive amounts of IQD are leaving Iraq.
Note also that 25T IQD is a huge pile of cash, about 1,000 pallets worth (somewhat more actually as this is based on USD being 1 million notes per a pallet sized cube but IQD are larger notes). Do we really think that 2 pallets of cash are leaving Iraq every week for the past 10 years? I don't buy it.
Could Iraq stop IQD (however much there is) from coming back into Iraq during a redenomination? I suppose its possible but the period for exchanging IQD for the new dinar at banks, has been said to be years. So whatever unusual measures would need to be taken to stop this reverse flow would have to go on for a long time. Iraq has pretty porous borders so I’m not sure its feasible in the first place. Thus it seems unlikely to me, though not impossible.
Yes, I was talking about cash. I was going by Marcus' research, but I've read enough of your comments over the past couple of years to know that I don't want to get into a debate with you on this stuff.
DeleteThanks for the compliment Sam. Coincidentally I just ran across two funny things connected with this subject in a NY Times article on the Amazing Randi and his (wonderful) life long obsession with exposing frauds claiming paranormal feats. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/09/magazine/the-unbelievable-skepticism-of-the-amazing-randi.html?_r=0
DeleteThe first is the term "the resiliency of the duped" referring to how once fooled people will rationalize anything to avoid accepting that they have been fooled. Sounds amazingly familiar somehow! Plus the article mentions a cases of Randi offering his million dollar challenge to such fraudsters, who usually as in this case do not accept. But catch the last sentence. Not really RV related, but funny none the less.
"McCormick had built equipment that could supposedly detect explosives from afar, which Randi recognized was simply a telescoping antenna swiveling on a plastic handle — a dowsing rod. Randi publicly offered the million-dollar prize to McCormick if he could prove that the device worked as claimed. McCormick, who was selling his product to security forces in the Middle East, never responded. But the British Police began an investigation, and last year McCormick was found guilty of fraud and sentenced to 10 years in prison, having sold at least $38 million worth of his miraculous device to the Iraqi government."
In defense of Marcus I will say that he's not alone in his opinion. "Although no regulator knows how many investors hold the dinar, Prof. Bunting estimates “that there are around 40 trillion Dinar in circulation and only about 5 trillion actually reside in Iraq so the rest in held by dinar speculators around the world. I guess you could say that the Dinar is Iraq’s largest export product).” Read John Wasik's article from Forbes back in July.
DeleteIf you look at the finacials page it states there's 35 trillion outside of banks and about 5 trillion in banks. So there are about 40 trillion physical dinar. Obviously there are more than 5 trillion in Iraq, because there are 5 trillion accounted for sitting in banks in Iraq. Of the 35 remaining trillion, I doubt they know the exact whereabouts.
DeleteThe only things I ever saw that talked about was an article soon after the original exchange that stated... ""According to Ahmed Muhammad, a deputy governor of Iraq's central bank, roughly half the 4.5 trillion new dinars have been removed from domestic circulation, either stashed away at home or smuggled out for sale abroad.".
There were numerous articles about sales frenzies in surrounding middle eastern countries and there was the article from and Egyptian journalist who claimed to have knowledge of the plan from the Coalition Authority to pump dinar out as phsy op to get people invested in the whole operation.
It's not too hard to believe that 50% of the currency left the country, which would be 20 trillion.
Not sure why it matters one single bit. They have to support it whether it's in country or out.
I emailed Prof Bunting to ask how he arrived at that estimate. I'll of course share the result, if any.
DeleteIt's funny to see them discount Marcus.
ReplyDeleteI've been around long enough to remember when Marcus was pro RV and he and his post were thrown at me as the words of an expert. I remember long ago exposing him as a musician on a few sites. How times change, and glad he's on the side of right now.
I just had to share some good news. Tony Renfrow is scheduled for a jury trial on June 8th, 2015 in the US District Court, Kansas for his role in the 14DailyPlus scam. Granted, it doesn't have anything to do with the Dinar, but this man has been scamming people for years and it's way past time for justice to be served.
ReplyDeletehttps://ecf.ksd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/CourtSched.pl
Indictment: https://www.docketalarm.com/cases/Kansas_District_Court/2--12-cr-20041/USA_v._Renfrow_et_al/1/
Sam, Any information about "The Red Dragon" funding the project and RV/GCR issue!
ReplyDeleteHere statement from Dave Schmidt The Sedona Connection Trip to Meet The Red Dragon and The Ambassador -
All of my newsletters and announcements can be found on my blog site: www.thesedonaconnection.wordpress.com.
# This newsletter contains a summary of our trip and information regarding recent developments. I consider it to be one of the more informative newsletters in some time. Most of the content is in the video so I would encourage you to watch it.
Our Trip to Meet The Red Dragon and The Ambassador.
Yesterday, Dec. 23rd, The Ambassador was interviewed by Ron Van Dyke, I'm including his video as well. The two videos and the newsletter will give you a good description of what is developing behind the project funding and RV/GCR issue.
24-12-2014: REVELATIONS BY DRAGON FAMILY AMBASSADOR
In this newsletter we are also releasing pictures never before shown to the public. These pictures are from The Ambassadors personal collection of gold, gold backed dinar,assets and historical artifacts. These photos have been displayed at the workshops and they are now ready to be released to the public. These photos are just a very small portion of what The Family has under their trustee authority. When Charla and I had dinner with The Red Dragon in Hong Kong we asked the direct question of funding the projects and the RV. I explain in further detail in the video, but he said yes, it is in The Family's plan to do both, but do not expect it to happen as soon as others are reporting.The Family is in the midst of a change in Administration. Each Administration has a term of 70 years, with an interim period of approximately 2 years, when the new administration is trained to replace the outgoing one. We are in that interim period right now. The Red Dragon, the other senior Family member and The Ambassador are all part of the new incoming administration. That process should be completed about mid year of 2015. The plan to fund projects and the RV is part of the new incoming Administration, and they cannot fully implement those plans until they are in full control. So, prudence and common sense tells us to not expect any large scale issues of fully funding the projects and the RV until the new administration is fully in place.Feel free to forward this newsletter to family and friends. There is an automated forwarding tab at the very bottom of the newsletter.
Enjoy the following pictures, they have never been released to the public before, these are just a small part of what the The Dragon Family has under their trusteeship. #
Dennis, the only information that I have found on the Red Dragon family is in conspiracy theory sites on the internet. You won't find anything about them in any respected publication. I don't believe anything Dave Schmidt says. I'll have more to say about him in my January update. Merry Christmas!
DeleteThanks Sam Merry Christmas to you and yours.
DeleteThat "Dragon Family" stuff sounds like another variant of the usual cr*p Ben Fulford has been churning out for the past 5 years.
DeleteAs for the general 'trustworthiness' & 'honesty' of Dave Schmidt:-
"In the largest questionable expenditure by Schmidt, PDC investigators, in a report issued last week, allege he improperly reimbursed himself $32,260 in unspent donations for wages he claims to have lost serving in the Senate from 2003-06."
http://heraldnet.com/article/20111207/NEWS01/712079892
Unsurprisingly, yet another Dinar pumper turns out to have a history of fraud...
I am embarrassed that I actually wasted the time to read that "Red Dragon" ignorance. LOL......how typical is it in the whole dinar scam though. Make up some super secret important sounding garbage that you can continue to build on while appealing to your victims greed. I remember when Tony Blair was in charge of the "RV" and Obama was holding it up and to just watch China to see when the "RV" would happen. Its all just a con man tactic.
ReplyDeleteAsk yourself why the "Red Dragon Family" (which is fairytale obviously) would "fund" the "RV". What the hell does that even mean? LOL.....this "family" is going to pay out trillions of dollars worth to speculators in return for what?......Dinar that can be bought for 1/10 of a penny right now at 1000s of locations world wide? How stupid are people? It seriously never ceases to amaze.
Agreed Dinark443, though it and related scams go back way further. Dig deep enough on conspiracy forums and you can still find people pushing NESARA "prosperity packages" that are "just awaiting the arrest of the current president Bush / Clinton by Provost Marshalls for delivery tomorrow, soon, next week, imminent, it is done!, I'm hearing good news from one of my trusted sources, any minute now", etc. I still believe this is where the Dinar guru's learned their sales pitch and the importance of "secrecy" and "imminency" to keep a scam alive.
DeleteRepeatedly promise someone $10m for nothing and you'll be surprised as to what extent they will start shutting themselves off from reality / shutting down critical thinking. NESARA, CMKX, the Dinar / Dong / Zimbabwe Dollar "RV" / GCR, Nigerian Prince e-mails, etc, are merely all facets of the same underlying syndrome. The whole thing has long morphed from being a simple Internet scam into one of the most perversely fascinating examples of modern mind control / cult psychology (certainly the way Dinar guru forums are run).