Douchie for April 1-7

Well this week was kind of a letdown for a lot of dinar hopefuls.  The hangover from drinking the koolaid still hasn't worn off for some.  The big buildup for the Arab summit triggering the RV led to yet another disappointment, but the gurus were out there pumping out new dates and rates as if nothing had happened.  Well ... okay I guess nothing did happen.  But you know what I mean.

4-6-2012 Okie_Oil_Man it took awhile but here is the latest intel reported by impeccable sources--the r/v did occur and it encompassed 11 countries of which the iqd and vnd was 2 of them. They ran tests individually thru the system and was successful. There is still a very strong possibility (know what the word possibility means??) that it will be released when the hawaii banks open today.

Yeah, I know what "possibility" means. Do you know what "impeccable" means? Dictionary.com defines it as "faultless; flawless; irreproachable". Given that definition I would describe your sources as very peccable.

4-6-2012 Bluwolf ALL IS DONE...JUST WANT YOU ALL TO REALIZE THAT YOU WILL BE DECLARED MILLONAIRES WITHIN HOURS.

48 hours and counting .....

4-6-2012  Bluwolf 525 IS NOT A RATE AT ALL, THAT IT IS EITHER A SWIFT OR A MT OR A CURRENCY CODE BUT IT IS NOT A RATE, THE RATES THAT YOU WILL SEE WILL BE OF DOUBLE DIGITS AND VERY HIGH... ALL RATES ARE TO BE LOCKED IN AT 10:15 PM PST TODAY FOR SURE...NOTHING IS HOLDING IT AND NOTHING WILL.

speaking of "very high" .... nah ... too easy!


But what really caught my attention this week was not the typical rate and date stuff from the obviously clueless intel gurus, but flawed analysis from a couple of guru "newshounds" with large followings of people who reject the Okies and Johnnwgs of the dinar world.

On Wednesday Adam Montana served up this jewel:

[Adam Montana] let me make ONE point. Wealth cannot simply "disappear", it can only change hands
[Adam Montana] Iraq was once a VERY wealthy country, with a currency valued at 3X the USD
[Adam Montana] now, you'll hear the l0psters talking about M2, they say you can't simply revalue the currency and gain money, etc etc.... the same goes for DEvaluing the currency. It does not matter how many 0's they have on their bills, it doesn't matter if there's 16 gazillion of these Dinars in circulation, because the notion that their wealth simply "disappeared" 8 years ago is a complete sham
[Adam Montana] it didn't disappear. Iraq still has the same wealth that they did in the past, it's just hidden behind a ridiculously undervalued currency
[Adam Montana] UNDERVALUED. When they FIX that value, the wealth doesn't magically reappear, it is simply re-RECOGNIZED

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/112643-adams-drive-by-4412

OMG!!! Where to begin?  Iraq was never a wealthy country.  They had a valuable currency, that's true.  But their people were always poor for the most part and their GDP was never terribly impressive.  During the 1970s they experienced a booming economy, but once Saddam took over the reins in 1979 and plunged them into the war with Iran that ended.  The sanctions imposed after Desert Storm led to further economic decay.

Iraq - GDP Per Capita 1950-2008

Wealth disappears all the time.  It's called supply and demand.  Every bear market on Wall Street ends in a reduction of wealth.  Conversely every bull market brings an increase in wealth.  When Iraq's currency depreciated after Desert Storm the demand for their currency declined, so a certain amount of wealth was lost.  By the way, the dinar was valued at 3000 dinar to 1 USD back in 1995, Adam .... 17 years ago instead of 8.  So you're right I suppose.  The notion that Iraq's wealth suddenly disappeared 8 years ago (something the pumpers like to assert when they try to convince you that it can suddenly reappear) is a sham because it didn't happen.  It declined as a result of the sanctions imposed after Desert Storm (and massive government printing) rather than suddenly disappearing as a result of the invasion in 2003 as you stated.   

Following your logic every country with an abundance of natural resources (Venezuela and Brazil, for example) that suffers from hyperinflation ends up with an "undervalued" currency.  Why don't they just "FIX" that value so that it can be "re-recognized" rather than re-denominate as Venezuela and Brazil did?  Because you can't, Adam.  No more than you can "unscramble" an egg.  In order to fix the value of the IQD you would have to undo the last 22 years of Iraq's history.  Undo Desert Storm.  Undo the sanctions.  Undo Saddam's massive printing of currency.  Undo the Oil for Food program.  Undo Iraqi Freedom.  Undo the insurgency.  Unless somebody comes up with a time machine that ain't gonna happen.

The dinar's value didn't disappear overnight because of some plot by Dick Cheney and the global elite to steal Iraq's wealth.  It depreciated because of the events that unfolded just like Japan, Germany, and Vietnam's currencies did.  None of those countries "fixed" their currency's value with an RV and Iraq won't either.   

By the way, Iraq's currency was never "devalued" as you stated.  Look up the word and you'll see that it's a policy driven reduction in a currency's value.  The dinar's value was driven down by market forces (depreciation), not "devalued" by the CBI.  Geez, I thought you went to Harvard.

And then this from Adam on Thursday:

Iraq has already overcame 99.9% of the hurdles that they needed to get over.   (Has overcame, huh?  Nice grammar there, Mr. Harvard grad.)  They've accomplished what they need to accomplish, and it's now "poop or get off the pot" time...at this time we're looking for the SAME THINGS AS LAST WEEK: (And every other week for the past year) HCL, Chapter 7, RV. It's really that simple. I'm still sticking to my "now to September" timeline.   (As opposed to your "RV by Thanksgiving" timeline from last year?)

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/112776-adams-official-chat-4512


Also this week Randy Koonce held a post-Arab summit conference call to put his followers at ease.

"All the "three zeros" which drives me up the wall ... when people start talking about the 86 cents ... 1) they don't understand economics 2) they don't understand what's being said in the paper - the "three zeros to be removed" only means to get them off the streets ... you can't remove 70% of a rate, okay?  how do you remove 70% of $.00086?  you don't!  it has to be talking about a physical bill.  It's Shabibi, remember?  He's the guy you listen to, not the other guys. Shabibi's the one who said he had 70% of the bills removed from the streets.  All right?  So those are where you've got to focus.  Keep your eyes on what's real.  Don't get your eyes on things that aren't real.  Okay?"

http://files.thevideochannel.net/uploads/fplayer.php?play=2-378931120404_A.mp3

Okay!  What's real about "Shabibi said he had 70% of the bills removed from the streets?"  When did he say that?  If you're referring to the article where they stated that they had removed 70% of excess liquidity I think you need to study up on what excess liquidity means.  It has nothing to do with pulling in the larger notes.

The CBI currently shows 28 trillion dinar outside of the banks.  At your RV rate of $3.41 that would take the value of the dinar in circulation from about $24 billion to about $82 trillion.  That's more money than most economists believe exists.  Now who doesn't understand economics?

Randy I have always considered you one of the good guys.  Even though I don't agree with your view on the RV I have never had any reason to believe that you are lying or profiting in any way off of the dinar.  But this has me stumped.  Do you really believe that Shabibi stated that they have removed 70% of the large notes?  And if they removed 70% of the three zero notes what did they replace them with?  A buttload of 50s, 250s, and 500s?  If  your response is "US dollars" then why wasn't that reflected in their reserves?  This "70% of excess liquidity"  report came out nearly two years ago.  Are we supposed to believe that the Iraqis have been getting by for nearly two years on nothing but lower denoms and USD? 

So this week we have a couple of newshound gurus - Adam Montana and Randy Koonce - sharing the Douchie.  Those of you who have followed this blog for a while know that I consider these "experts" who "explain" the RV as more dangerous than the intel rate and date guys because so many people believe they know what they're talking about.  (Do your own research folks!  IT'S YOUR MONEY!!!)  I hate to award one to Randy since he seems like such a nice guy, but that's the judge's decision.  If Randy can document his claim that Shabibi said they've pulled in 70% of the 000 notes I'll gladly withdraw it.