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Here are my responses to this week's questions for Adam "Wolfyman" Montana.
- How is the changing of the guard at CBI going to effect the chances of an RV? Some folks think it is so Maliki can plunder the reserves. What's your thoughts? Well it didn't have much effect the last time they changed it, now did it? People have been saying that about Maliki for years but the reserves keep growing. However, it's their country and they can run it into the ground if they see fit. That's a risk you take in buying the currency of an unstable country.
- Concerning the loss of value of the us dollar when the RV comes. If the dollar devalues against the Dinar, Dong, etc. How much of the buying power will the US dollar decrease? The dinar is pegged to the USD, so if the dollar loses value the dinar loses value too. If they revalue or devalue it won't make much difference, since (contrary to what the idiot gurus are telling you) those two actions are relatively insignificant in nature. As for the dong, Vietnam prefers to slowly devalue it so I'm not expecting any increase any time soon. The dollar might decrease a few % in value, but in the last few years it seems to be holding up fairly well on the forex. I look for that to continue short term.
- How do you think an rv would affect the stock in iraq? Not much. It's just an exchange rate vs. foreign currencies. Raising the value a few % would only have a negligible impact. Would they just change the nominal value and I'm still left with the same amount of stock? Changing the nominal value would be an RD, not an RV. After they redenominate your stock in XYZ that sold for 1,000 dinar will now sell for 1 dinar.
- Can you give a breakdown of what is happening now in Iraq? Violence, corruption, sectarian division ..... same ol' same ol'. We heard that Turki is being removed and that all has been completed including the HCL, just not implemented. Who knows? Who cares? None of that is going to raise the value of the dinar substantially. What laws are still hanging out there that have to be done? Ditto. What are your contacts in Iraq saying. What contacts? I can't believe they are waiting on the elections to revalue currency. Just doesn't make sense. You're right, it doesn't. They've raised the value in the past with Maliki in office. The only reason they aren't raising the value now is that they apparently don't see the need to.
Responding to "guru" questions is a waste of time. Their questions are about fantasy beliefs having no place in the real world, like the fantasy that Maliki is blocking the so-called "RV", or promoting the so-called "RV", depending on who you listen to. Maliki has nothing to do with any so-called "RV" because there is no so-called "RV" coming.
ReplyDeleteThese so-called "gurus" won't address real world facts like 80 trillion dinar in circulation and real world questions like who would come up with $297 trillion to give everybody $3.71 for their dinar (when they can buy dinar on ebay and lots of other places at $.00086).
There's not that many US dollars in existence, and if the Fed "printed" that many dollars, the US dollar would become worthless (think Weimer Germany).
And the "inconvenient truth" that all the resources in Iraq aren't worth $5 trillion, much less $297 trillion, even if IMF did implement some fantasy valuation of currency based on national resources.
Maliki blocking or promoting a 300,000% "RV", ignoring the glaring fact that it isn't mathematically possible to begin with? Yea, that's how these delusional "dinar gurus" think.
These "gurus" aren't sane rational-thinking people. They're so deep in their delusions and fantasies they would be judged insane by most psychiatrists.
But that's what greed can do to people. Make them build all sorts of wild crazy fantasies in their heads of imminent windfall wealth.
Roger Dorman doesn't even wait for questions.
DeleteHow can there be 80 trillion in circulation when the cbi says they are at 4 billion notes. Article can be found at the news hound.
ReplyDeleteActually the cash outside of banks is around 35 trillion according to the CBI website. Divide that by 4 billion and you get an average of 8750 per note. Since most of the notes in circulation have three zeros, and since trillions of dinars have been exported from Iraq in three zero notes, I think 8750 is a reasonable average. The thing to keep in mind is that money supply figures are never listed in notes but in monetary units. All of the talk about notes is just nonsense from guys like Breitling who want to convince people that the CBI figures aren't right.
DeleteDavid, there are 4bn banknotes (as in 4bn pieces of paper). Obviously each banknote has a value of more than 1 Dinar. Some have denominations of 25,000 Dinar (worth $21.44), others are as little as 50 Dinar (worth 4.3 cents) which are the modern equivalent of old pre-inflated Iraqi 50 fils coins before they got inflated out of existence in the early 1990's.
DeleteAs Sam said, cash outside banks is 35tn Dinar, and total money supply is now 87,766bn (87.8tn) Dinar.
How many of those pieces of paper say "100" or "10,000" or "25,000"? Plus all the dinar deposits in bank accounts not in that 4 billion figure?
ReplyDeleteSorry to have to say this, but if you think 4 billion notes in circulation means only 4 billion dinar exist, and you were suckered into the "300,000% RV" nonsense on that basis, your ignorance is the problem, not some "guru" prediction.
It amazes me how little "dinarians" seem to know about how currencies work. With even a moderate understanding someone would see the impossibility of a 300,000% "RV".
And yet today, right now, the "gurus" are on blogs saying next few days, April 1, April 15, advising people to be cautious with their new windfall wealth, keeping millions of ignorant sheep believing they'll be multi-millionaires any day now ...and it's been "any day now" over 10 years.
What's the take-away message from this? Sheep will go for any carrot-on-a-stick ripoff you dangle in front of them. No wonder many "dinarians" are broke, hoping this fantasy "RV" will bail them out. What other ripoffs have they squandered their money on?
A question I would like to ask "Adam" is "what has become of his open forum policy allowing differing opinions"? I think we all know the answer to that one, Ha!
ReplyDeleteLooks like Keep is trying to put up a good fight almost single handedly, there are a couple of the more moderates giving him some character support but little else. It's plain what's happening, there is a concerted effort now to eliminate the last trace of opposition and "Adam's" little minions are ganging up on him trying to goad him into getting himself banned but obviously he's too smart for that. There was even mention by one of the attackers that visitation was off by 90% (I seriously doubt it's that bad but I sure hope that's true!) and he was blaming Keep and the other "Lopsters" for it! Personally I would take it as a great compliment that they would blame (or give credit as the case may be!) the "Lopsters" for causing a decline in membership, but of course they are responsible to a great extent and "Adam" is well aware of that thus the campaign to attack anyone with a negative view even in the so-called Lopster tank.
Keepm if you read this then hang in there buddy and keep up the fight, you have a lot of support on the outside of the ring and we're rooting for you! Those guys just don't realize that their lame arguments only serve to make your points look sensible and they are definitely a classic case of being their own worst enemy!
Thanks, looks like Im the lone lopper as someone so put it lol.....fibby and boomer got the axe so I guess ill just have to keep the pot warm by myself haha
DeletePoopy is still in pumping mode as usual...............[poppy3]maliki now found to be ineligible again .WOW now if this is true this time as it was announced months ago and was just pushed asside and Maliki continue his bid. Now IF THEY STAND BY THEIR CONDTITUTION AND HOLD FAST TO NOT LETTING HIM RUN AGAIN THEN THE RV WILL HAPPEN ASAP ON THEIR PART. THIS IS VERY POSSIBLE BECAUSE THE CONTROL HE HAS HAD FOR YEARS NOW WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE IS ZIP HE CAN DO TO PRODUCE OR STOP THE RV IT WILL BE UP TO THE CBI,WORLD BANK,IMF, AND GLOBAL NEEDS. WHILE THIS CAN BE VERY GOOD FOR US I AM NOW CONCERNED THAT THE POWERS THAT BE AT THIS POINT MAY ELLECT TO SEE WHOM STEPS FORWARD AND TAKES THE PRIME MINISTERS POSITION AND IN THIS CASE WE MAY HAVE TO GIVE THEM TIME TO REBUILD THEIR CABINET AND THAT COULD TAKE 30 TO 45 DAYS BUT I PERSONALLY THINK THEY WILL NOW NOT WAIT FOR A CABINET . AFTER THE POSITIONING OF IRAQ FINANCING--- THE GOLD PURCHASE , THE DEBT REDUCTION PAID TO THE PARIS CLUB MEMBERS, SETTING IN MOTION TO PAY PENSIONS BEGINNING APRIL 1 AND EVEN MAKING THEM RETRO BACK TO JAN. 1 2014, THE BUDGET AND HCL BOTH NOW ON THE AGENDA FOR THE COMING WEEK MEETINGS FOR SECOND AND FINAL READING AND KNOWING THAT THE HCL REQUIRES THE RV NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND ??? I NOW SEE US PROSPERING WITHIN THIS NEXT MONTH . THE BRICKS HAVE BEEN LAID AND THE TIMING IS RIGHT. GO RV ,GO IRAQ, GO AND GET-R-DONE . POPPY3
ReplyDeleteIf they had 30 trillion and whent to 80 why hasn't the value gone down?
ReplyDeleteThat's a legitimate question. If you look at the chart from my earlier link you'll see that they went from 5.7 trillion cash outside of banks in December of 2013 to 35 trillion in December of 2013. Their M2 went from 7 trillion to 87 trillion during that time frame. The reason the value doesn't go down while the money supply increases is that the reserves backing the currency are also increasing. This is how all of the oil producing economies of that region manage their exchange rates. I wrote about this in a post called Dirty Float.
DeleteProbably same reason USD is still 1.30 thereabouts against the Euro after massive Fed printing (Tarp, QE) since '08. Even though gas groceries gold silver and most other in-demand things have doubled/tripled in price proving USD has lost significant value, all currencies are being printed massively and they're all diluting (losing value) more or less even with each other, meaning exchange ratios change little. The real question is how much has gas and grocery prices gone up in Iraq. That's where you see the currency losing value.
DeleteBecause Iraq have been increasing CBI Foreign Exchange Reserves at roughly the same ratio precisely to maintain a stable peg (which was, still is and will continue to be their policy). In 2004, Iraq had about $8bn FX reserves and 12tn Dinar currency, hence the higher 1460:1 exchange rate. By 2010, Iraq had $50bn in FX reserves and a money supply of 60tn Dinar. Today they have $80bn in FX reserves and a money supply of 87tn Dinar. When they typically print 10-15% more money each year, they also typically add to their CBI reserves, so the overall "pressure" to sustain the peg remains roughly the same.
DeleteThat's how pegged currencies work in the real world away from "guru-land" - they need enough FX reserves to back the amount of Dinar issued x whatever rate they've pegged it at. All throughout these years, the CBI has less than $1 available to back each 1,000 Dinar = hence the sub 1000:1 rate, which is an entirely fair market value given Iraq's massive money supply. A rate of 1000:1 is simply not under-valued when you have tens of billions of reserves to back tens of trillions of inflated paper money.
This is why any "100,000-3,500,000% RV" is total nonsense - if they declared the Dinar to be worth 1,000x more, they'd be forcing themselves to find 1,000-3,500,000x more $ to "buy back" all those Dinar for 1,000-3,500,000x more than they issued them for, ie, instead of $80bn reserves backing 87,700bn Dinar (worth around $75bn @ 1166:1), at 1:1 they'd end up trying to "back" $87,700 worth of Dinar with $80bn, and every bank in Iraq would go bankrupt overnight. They would literally run out of money before people "cashed in" even 0.1% of their banknotes. At stupid "3.5" rates, they'd end up trying to back 3.5 x 87,700bn Dinar = $307,000bn ($307tn) with only $80bn reserves. They would literally run out of money before people "cashed in" even 0.026% of their banknotes. At "$35 rates", they would literally run out of money before people "cashed in" even 0.0026% of their banknotes trying to back 3 quadrillion "worth" of Dinar with $80bn.
To keep things in perspective, the entire global economy is only around $80bn! Why on Earth would Iraq - a country with a 0.25% share of the global economy (including every drop of oil sold) - "deserve" to have a 109-2,830% share of the world's money supply? Sounds utterly ridiculous when spelled out like that - yet that's exactly what the scammer guru's have been pumping all along. That's why the whole thing is a scam based on mathematical gibberish. It doesn't matter what "rate" anyone declares anything to be at, it'll simply end up a junk currency with a far lower black market rate if Iraq over-pegs the Dinar relative to the amount of FX reserves actually backing it. It wouldn't make anyone in Iraq "rich" - it would totally bankrupt them! No-one in Iraq is pumping this "RV" stuff - it all comes from Western scammers selling Dinar to other Westerners. Most Iraqi's aware of it from inside Iraq, are actually amazed the scam has gone on so long.
Iraq ultimately has enough "headroom" for a real-world 5-15% "RV" (which they're unlikely to do as their ongoing policy as laid out in last year's IMF report is a stable unchanging FX rate to attract foreign investment - they also like having a small 5-10% 'buffer' as a hedge against volatile oil prices). All the +100,000% figures guru's are throwing around though, are a complete and total delusion. It's not a difference of opinions - it's a literal impossibility.
I heard $27 offered by some alleged Chinese trillionaire, meaning said fantasy trillionaire would possibly have to shell out $2,349,000,000,000,000 ($2,349 trillion,or $2.349 quadrillion).
Delete"Dinarians" are just flat out of their minds, raving lunatic insanity.
Chinese trillionaire. LOL......Bill Gates is the richest man on earth with a net worth around 70 billion. That's about 930 billion short of the fantasy Chinese trillionaire. Haha.....dinar idiots will believe anything.
ReplyDeleteOk maybe I'm wrong but I can't help it, I have to call bullshit on that Len Holiday character over at BI! Maybe he is who he says and obviously he's well educated but so much so it just supports my point, how could someone who is such a successful stockbroker know so little about the oil market that he believes that 73% of the world's oil supply (plus 2/3 of the world's other natural resources no less!) is held by a worn torn country that's teetering on yet another civil war but except for a few spikes depending on world events oil prices have remained relatively stable? Also his comments on gold and the "new world currency" are right out of guru land or any number of nutcase conspiracy sites! Ok he gives some info to back up who he claims to be but it's not WHO but WHAT he is that matters, in this case he might come across to the uninformed as someone who is well educated and well versed on world economics but in reality what he is saying is pure bovine excrement! I don't care who he claims to be or even if he can back up WHO he is he is as full of chit as a thanksgiving turkey, no stockbroker that has achieved the level of success that he claims could be so gullible as to fall for the pumper generated nonsense he is saying!
ReplyDeleteHere is a response from Kap to a reader who questions articles which continuously refer to Turkey and Iraq's redenomination plan:
ReplyDeleteFranky, I don't ignore anything and I have read all those articles. But, like many of them they come from people who don't know what they are talking about. As for what they mean, what you state is your opinion and not fact. I can assume you never had them professionally translated nor contacted the CBI for verification? I have access to two fluent speaking Arabic translators who provide much more clarification over computer articles. So that being said, the best we have is what professional organizations who are "in the know" would say...and that is a gradual appreciation (or known as "raising the zeros"). Read the IMF Article IV Consultation, etc. It is as clear as day what will happen to the dinar. As for the comparison to Turkey, etc, I think it's fair to say that they are referring to a "process," not the result. Its' funny how LOP'ers want to continually state that is happening but refuse to address factual information that states otherwise. Iraq is going to change currencies, but not to a new currency code. The IQD is the currency of Iraq.
That plan based on everything I know is the gradually appreciate the dinar (raise zeros) down to the day where they can release new smaller denominations.
Kap, the "loppers" do address YOUR "factual information", but as soon as they start making sense, you resort to name calling and telling them how uneducated they are and then ban them. With no control of censorship this is why you will not come here and let the members discuss your "factual information". At least sonny and steve had the balls to show up and make an attempt to defend their opinions.
Now go cry to Sam I Am about being picked on, by email, so no one can see you come to this site.
Hey I'm still waiting for those legal docs. You're a few months behind on getting those to me. Shall I wait a few more months on that empty threat?
and kaperoni also dismissed article 32 of the CBI. he then claimed afterward he didn't dismiss the info and came up with a bunch of crapola excuses. that's of course after he erased the post where he did state what I said. he's VERY famous for erasing posts that don't suit his agenda over at dinar detectives forum!
Deletethen we have moron koonce with more of his monthly idiocracies ..........koonce comes up with all sorts of BS......he looks like a fat, shady used car dealer! and so does BGG, so does EXOGEN, and THC tony!
Randy Koonce
One of the things to go over is that fact that the IMF and UN have not been very forceful in making Iraq complete the things they agree upon… After such the IMF in the urgency to get this RV done was to give Maliki more concessions. This creates a spoiled kid effect which Maliki does not need more of.
Most of the Gurus that have been put in front of me do not have a good handle on what is going on… If they had they would never say this is going to RV on a given date… You and only GIVE windows, writing of which these emails that I am sending out should not be used to speculate on whether or not to buy an Reserve…
Non-Disclosures are not for the individuals who are buying dinar so they do not matter… They were for major banks and News agencies, which is why the news will not cover the RV and that almost none of the banks talk about it…
The window I gave that went to Sunday has moved because the IMF and UN have no resolve. So it moved to Monday morning…… if we pass that date then guys I believe we will be here at least to the Election which starts in April… So pray for this window and that we do not have to go into April….
(Not current info – this timeline has moved thru Tues.)
Large Groups with 800# and NDA and anyone other than friends in a group – stay away from!! Do not give your currency to anyone to cash in for you.
When you go to a bank to exchange – just say you can get the CBI Rate and you want no fees…… If you can do that or better do it…there is no time limit on the currency but you will be pressured to cash in, take your time.
I do not know it all just because I have typed an email. Please use your own judgment on what is about to happen….. I do feel strong we are just about done but this thing has made so many turns it looks like a snake around your arm.
But if for some reason it does not go do not be discouraged we will see this thing through…..
Again if we get past Monday then give me at least a week before I can get the issues….Just pray for this weekend. Check CBI.IQ
I am extremely hopeful at this time.
Does anyone know where Randy Koonce is from?
DeleteThe booming, thriving metropolis of Stanton, Texas.
DeleteHey Sam,
ReplyDeleteI am trying to put together a White Paper on the dinar and the mythical RV. I have heard here and at BI that the money supply in Iraq was in the neighborhood of 20 billion dinars back when their exchange rate was near $3.22. Is there any source on that fact that you can share with me?
Thanks
USMC Sgt A
Check wikipedia among other places, they mentioned massive dinar printing in the 90s drove real-world exch rate down to $.00033, making Saddam's $3.22 "peg" pure BS.
DeleteAnother "inconvenient truth" dinar "gurus" never talk about.
data.worldbank.org shows about 9B (converted to USD, which is likely what it most was anyway) in reserves in 1980. So you can work backwards if you know the exchange rate in 1980. If the rate was $3 per IQD ($1 for 0.3 IQD say), then that would put M2 around 3B IQD. To get to $1 USD to 3000 IQD (10,000 times worse) in the mid nineties then Saddam prints 1000x the money supply and spends 90% of the reserves, which seems plausible from what we know about that period. Still a pretty crude estimate.
DeleteHi Steve. In the 80's, it was indeed below 20bn Dinar. The oldest proof on the CBI's own website is on page 5 of this document:-
Deletehttp://www.cbi.iq/documents/Annual_2002f.pdf
Year = Money Supply / FX rate
1991 = 24,670m (24.7bn) / $1 = 10 IQD
1992 = 43,909m (43.9bn) / $1 = 21 IQD
1993 = 86,430m (86.4bn) / $1 = 74 IQD
1994 = 238,901m (239bn) / $1 = 458 IQD
1995 = 705,064m (705bn) / $1 = 1674 IQD
1996 = 960,503m (960bn) / $1 = 1170 IQD
1997 = 1,038,097m (1tn) / $1 = 1471 IQD
1998 = 1,351,876m (1.3tn) / $1 = 1620 IQD
1999 = 1,483,836m (1.5tn) / $1 = 1972 IQD
2000 = 1,728,006m (1.7tn) / $1 = 1930 IQD
2001 = 2,159,089m (2.1tn) / $1 = 1929 IQD
2002 = 3,013,601m (3.0tn) / $1 = 1957 IQD
2003 = 3,787,658m (3.8tn) / $1 = 3500 IQD
As you can see, from 1991 to 2003, it expanded 152x fold and by pure non-coincidence, the exchange rate fell the more money they printed...
Yesterday a question shows up on one of the blogs asking if amount of dinar in circulation has anything to do with exch rate.
ReplyDeleteGood god these people are idiots.
LOL. I think I'll go hang round a professional commodities forum, and then ask "What could shortages of wheat possibly have to do with the rising price of wheat?" followed up by "But surely the price of a new family car should be $850? After all, that's what my granddad paid in 1940!" ;-)
DeleteThe "logic of the RV" in a nutshell...
More like 87 trillion dinar will "RV" to same exch rate 2 billion dinar had.
ReplyDelete$3.22 x 2 billion dinar = $6.440,000,000. About right for Iraq's GDP at that time.
$3.22 x 87 trillion dinar = $280,140,000,000,000. Nearly 5 times entire planet GDP, and more than entire planet resources is worth.
But these facts don't phase dinarian "guru" lunatic "RV" predictions of $3.71 up to a mind boggling $27.
They (and their idiot sheep followers) will be waiting till hell freezes over.
Ah the ol "everyone knows" ploy.
ReplyDeleteThe latest pile of poo brought over to DV from some posting of Eagle1 (http://snipurl.com/28r7h0p) starts out with
"Everyone knows that George W. Bush signed Executive Order #13303 in 2003 making it lawful for Americans to purchase and hold the Iraqi Dinar, which would otherwise have been a sanctioned currency and unlawful to buy or sell.
....[more nonsense snipped]
No one is arguing with those facts."
I suppose the idea here is that if you claim that everyone knows it and no one is questioning these "facts" some folks might actually accept it. Looking up a presidential executive order is particularly easy at the national archives (http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/executive-orders/2003.html) which will lead you to the government printing office where you can read it, and of course 13303 has nothing to do with Americans owning foreign currency ( http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2003-05-28/pdf/03-13412.pdf ). Its about protecting the Iraq DFI fund from law suits for damages and does not even mention the words currency or IQD or Dinar (its also only two pretty short pages).
But (at least so far) no at DV bothers to so do, they just go along and comment about how interesting and hopeful and sensible it all is. Ironically one commenter states that they are not knowledgeable about all the things Eagle1 talks about, but since they are knowledgable about some things, and think he's correct on those, they will tend trust him for the other stuff too. But I'm guessing even if they looked up 13303 and found that Eagle1 is lying about that, they would not apply this same logic and conclude that everything Egale1 says is 100% manure, but instead jus say 'well he just got that one thing wrong, but we should trust him on the rest...". Its so pathetic.
And "I don't know all the facts, but it's gonna happen soon, you'll see."
DeleteI stumbled across this: "Dinar RV Wow – Okie Oil Man says It’s Dinar Graduation Time - Okie Oil Man & Newshound - Fri, June 1, 2012"
Further down was this comment: "5-31-2012 Intel Guru Bear5642 i would be totally shocked if we dont have an official announcement of the RV tomorrow."
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 365 days a year, year after year, shame on me.
Guys, help me out here...I give lessons to a person who claims he's part of a "private placement" and is about to cash out. He says he knows people who have cashed out already, and that they do it at a bank. What can I say to this poor person???
ReplyDeleteHi Nina. Unfortunately most of these people can't be helped because they're not thinking rationally. The only people who have "cashed out" at a bank exchanged their dinar at the going exchange rate minus fees. Why would anybody give you more for your dinar than they would pay a bank or dinar dealer for the same currency? Nobody has cashed out for $1-$32 as some of these scammers are saying, and nobody is exchanging at banks anymore because the banks quit handling the dinar. Your student is either listening to scammers or scam victims.
DeleteSam, as always, I appreciate what you do. Ive even directed him to your site in the past, and his response was some mix of all the dinar believers' keywords (global reset, its already done, NWO, etc). Like most on this site, I used to believe in the dinar. Now, Im on a crusade to stop the madness, but as youve said, there seems to be no stopping the believers, no matter what facts they're faced with.
ReplyDeleteHe won't totally lose, dinar is fairly good quality wallpaper, and in small bills it's way cheaper per sq ft than other wallpaper :)
DeleteOh, and same thing for dong.