Sunday, July 28, 2013

Dirty Float

Since I started this blog nearly two years ago I've heard this repeated assertion from the gurus that Iraq is holding the value of the dinar down via a dirty float, and presumably someday soon they'll reveal the true value and "we'll all be rich".  I know many people listen to these guys and buy into this nonsense, so I felt compelled to respond with a brief tutorial on dirty floats a.k.a. managed floats.  (This is by no means an exhaustive study of the subject.  I'm only scratching the surface for the purpose of this discussion.)  First of all "dirty" doesn't mean that there's anything sinister going on.  It simply means it's not a free float.  It's managed via manipulation of the money supply to maintain a certain amount of stability. 

The oil based economies of the Gulf region have to have a managed float because oil by its very nature has a volatile price structure.  As we've seen over the past four years a barrel of oil has sold for over $120/bl and below $40/bl.  Since these economies are so dependant on oil, a free floating currency would be very unstable and it would make it virtually impossible to conduct business.  Thus, the managed float. 

Let's take a look at some of the other oil based economies of that region.  We'll start with Qatar.  Their reserves took a dip in late 2011 but they've grown pretty consistently since then.



Now according to the gurus, if their foreign currency reserves grew and they're backing their currency with their reserves, the value should have grown too, right?  Wrong.



Their exchange rate has remained very stable, with the value around $.275.  Now, how could that be?  Doesn't make sense, does it?  Well, yes it does.  You see, the growth is seen in the money supply, not the value.  The chart below shows that the money supply declined at the same time the reserves declined in late 2011, and then it started growing again as the reserves increased.  (I'm using M0, M1, and M2 figures in these examples because these were the charts provided by Trading Economics.)




Now let's look at Saudi Arabia.  Notice the consistent growth in the money supply and reserves, while the exchange rate remained stable.

 





Now let's look at Oman.






As you can see, they all saw a growth in the foreign currency reserves but maintained stability with the exchange rate by increasing the money supply.  That's what a dirty float (or managed float) does.  It prevents the currency's value from being subjected to the volatility that it would experience with a true float.  Are all of these currency's values being "held down"?  Well yes, I suppose they are in a way.  They're being stabilized so that these countries can conduct business.  Are they going to quit holding the value down and revalue their currencies to the point that anybody in possession of their currencies will become rich?  Fat chance.  They're going to keep managing these exchange rates and keep them right about where they are.  Why?  Because they need a stable exchange rate to plan, to budget, and to attract investment into their countries.  Raising the value would do more harm than good. 

A quick check of the financial report at the CBI website shows that Iraq's M1 has grown from 37 trillion in 2009 to about 70 trillion today.  The M2 has gone from 45 trillion to about 80 trillion.  The foreign currency reserves have similarly grown from around $40 billion to almost $80 billion.  And the IQD's rate has been remarkably stable going from 1170:1 to 1166:1.  We can see from these figures that Iraq is essentially following the same approach in maintaining exchange rate stability.   

Often when gurus talk about the dinar floating they seem to think of it like a tennis ball floating from the bottom of a swimming pool to the surface, where the value would grow exponentially.  That's the wrong visual in my opinion.  A better way to think of it is a tennis ball floating on the surface of that pool, bobbing up and down but remaining relatively stable.  You can see from the charts above that some fluctuation is involved with those currencies, but over the years they maintain stability.  And even if Iraq does eventually move to a more flexible exchange rate scenario, you're still talking about a much more stable arrangement than any of these gurus are talking about.  It would probably be no more than 10% a year.  Currencies don't float up 100,000%, or 10,000%, or even 1000% a year.   

This is how the dirty float works, and with these oil based economies it's a must.  That's why the CBI has kept increasing the money supply as their foreign currency reserves grow, rather than raising the value.  And it's why these douchebags who are telling everybody that Iraq is going to RV or float to ten cents, a dollar, $3.44 or whatever are either lying or terribly misinformed.  Iraq is on a managed float and will remain that way as long as their GDP is 90% oil revenues which in my opinion will be for many years to come.





43 comments:

  1. I don't understand why you categorize these currencies as any kind of a float. As far as I can tell (and the wiki agrees) all three are pegged. Officially Saudi Arabia and Oman peg to the IMFs SDR, but in practice its to the dollar and Qatar officially pegs to the dollar. They don't dare float for exactly the reason you state, that their economies are so oil dependent that doing so would introduce volatility based on oil prices, and a varying exchange rate is bad for businesses so to speak. The Saudi's in particular peg at a much lower rate than their money supply (M2 if I recall) and reserves would allow last time I checked (about 1/3). So they could raise their rate, but clearly they think doing so would be bad for their economy. Its a little hard to see if you graphs agree with that due to not having any units shown. That alone would let it float higher even with the volatility if they actually let it float.

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    1. The terms "peg", and "dirty and/or managed floats" are a little hazy. Strictly speaking there is only one true currency peg out there that I know of and that is between the countries that use the euro and those that hope to use the euro in the very near term. None of the economies mentioned in the article are strictly pegged but its true that they are darn close. For example, the SAR will fluctuate by a few pips each week and once in a while it will fluctuate quite a bit, like it did in 2009 and 2008 (or like it has every time there is a financial crisis in the U.S.).

      In my opinion its moot anyway. The countries mentioned are either managing an extremely small dirty float or a mildly fluctuating peg, but the point is the same. In full disclosure, Sam asked me to review the article and I said a "dirty float" was a fine description since the exchange rates do and have fluctuated a little over time. So definitely blame me if you feel confused. I look at it a little bit like trying to pin down the exact definition of "corporate earnings". Its kind of hazy but different approaches will usually get you in the right ballpark for arriving at the same conclusion.

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    2. I stand corrected. As John points out it's a blurry line of distinction between a managed float and a de facto peg. The point I was trying to make is that their money supplies tend to increase and decrease along with their reserves, and that increases in the foreign currency reserves don't normally lead to an increase in value. But you're right about them being classified as pegged. And in effect the dinar is considered a de facto peg to the USD via the CBI's tight management. This is the kind of discussion the dinar community needs to have, rather than debating over the latest rumour from Okie or TonyTNT. Thanks for the input.

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    3. Right no major disagreement with that. Peg, crawling peg, etc, all to me imply the central bank is directly setting the rate that they will exchange to all comers. Thus they have to have reserves sufficient to cover at least M1. If you float, then that is saying that the central bank is not setting the rate of their own currency but is letting the markets do so. They may well participate in the markets (maybe in a big way) to try and exert some amount of control if the rate starts going in a direction they do not like, but they are not just proclaiming the rate is X. Too simplistic?

      That distinction is one of the many odd points with the believers as many say things like "Iraq will float their currency at 1 USD", but if you want the CBI to set the rate it has to be a peg not a float, and if you want it to float then the CBI is not setting the rate its the market and until there is a significant amount of stuff you can buy in dinars there will be no market for dinars. The CBI can't even get the downstream banks in Iraq to sell dollars for 1166 IQD since thy can get 1280 or so.

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  2. Good post Sam.

    Gurus are good at convincing their victims that as soon as Iraq goes to a float then the dinar value is going to skyrocket. They use terms like going international or internationally tradable to confuse their victims into thinking that its a good thing. The bottom line is if Iraq dared to float the dinar (which it wouldn't) then the value would more than likely plummet. Spwerews use the lie that everyone on earth wants dinar and cannot wait to trade in dinar. LOL What a joke. Iraqis don't even want dinar. The only people who want dinar are those who are brainwashed by the spwerews themselves. There is no demand for a country's currency who is using car bombs to blow up dozens of people a week. There is no demand for a country's currency whose leaders are basically tyrants murdering off their opposition. They have a completely dysfunctional wanna be government, they have no economy other than oil (which is bought with USD), they have a shady future at best, they are surrounded by unstable countries and are unstable themselves. Really the only good thing Iraq has going for it is the Kurdish region in the north and they are doing everything they can to break away from Iraq. HAHAHAHA....yeah....really a hot currency in big demand world wide. Have any of the gurus victims even stopped to notice that the dinar is in a hyperinflated state? Do they even comprehend what that means? Obviously not.

    The current dinar will not float.

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  3. Sam "?"
    what is in your opinion in the future for IQD? Realistic, no "guru's" euphoria nor "doom".
    what will happen if Kurdistan split of from Baghdad as independent entity?

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    1. hola I'm no expert on geopolitics. I can only assume that a split wouldn't be good for IQD investors. My opinion for the future of the IQD is that the value will remain about where it is until they eventually get around to enacting their currency reform plan which will result in the demonetization of the IQD and the introduction of a replacement dinar. In other words, I don't see much hope of any profit. I could be wrong, but in the 22 months I've been blogging along these lines the dinar has only increased in value a third of one percent so I think I'm on the right track here.

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    2. Quietly lost in the news cycles has been the violence in Iraq. There was another large bombing in Baghdad yesterday that killed 45 people. In the month of July, nearly 700 people have been killed in Iraq. That is not a trend that instills confidence in the future. To suggest that Iraq has a semblance of stability is wrong. Iraq is a very unstable nation with a corrupt gov't and a continuing culture of violence. Many of the douchebags like to suggest that buying the currency of a nation is like buying the stock of a nation. If it is, would you want to own stock in such a dysfunctional company? Of course not!

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    3. Exactly.....just as I stated above. Iraq is about as unstable as they come. Political killings, religious killings, Iranian backed killings, carbombs, silenced weapons assassinations. Things that gurus love to ignore and things that brainwashed "investors" insist a RV would stop.

      The ignorance is simply unbelievable.

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  4. Good analysis, Sam.

    The point everybody should understand is that it is very disruptive for a currency to move significantly up or down. It is far more beneficial and desirable for a currency to be stable, which is why all but a few currencies freely float in the forex market in the first place. Even the Chinese yuan and Swiss franc are tethered to a currency index ensuring they don't move very much in either direction. The franc used to float freely until a few years ago. It was strengthening so far and so fast that a cup of coffee in Zurich cost nearly $8. It was creating a lot of problems for Swiss citizens (and it only appreciated a paltry 20% over about 6 months). The Swiss gov't finally put it on a tether to the euro and it promptly lost 15%. All these douchebags that claim the dinar is poised to strengthen a huge amount and that is somehow good for Iraq are either willfully ignorant or intentionally deceptive. A massive revaluation would ruin Iraq and cause massive instability (as if Iraq needed any more of that). It simply won't happen. There is nothing "wrong" with the current exchange rate as the douchebags would lead everyone to believe. It is not undervalued. If anything, it is overvalued. You can usually tell the true value of a currency by looking at the exchange rate on street for dollars. Based on that, the dinar is only worth about $.00007 compared to the $.000085 that the CBI uses. It's very possible that if the dinar were allowed to float without a tether (which will not happen), the value would actually fall.

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  6. If you want to browse economic, industrial, climate change, indicators (money supply, GDP, industry segmetns...) for a whole host of countries, a great site is the World Banks data catalog, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

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    1. Good resource. Thanks for the link, jrg.

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  7. Here is some brilliance copied from a chat at DV with our buddy Ennorset and some of his pumper friends Kraperoni and T-liar.




    Here Is A Continuation Of The Original Post With Tlar Challenging Enorrste's Float Theory Vs An RV ...



    Enorrste: Tlar, you have given me a lot to chew on. I will try to address your points in order.

    If, as you say, the CBI goes to Article VIII, they have the power, as Saleh said, to simply exchange dinars for dollars. It becomes a policy decision. Local Iraqis won’t need an incentive to buy dollars. They will be told to do so.
    ...

    The pulling in of the dinars will occur prior to the rise in value of the dinar. That is the whole point.

    They sell (or tell) the idea that it is a part of the “process leading to the issuance of the new currency to remove the old currency.” It is not an option.

    Only AFTER the old currency is removed and the country is totally dollarized will they then float the existing dinar and allow it to rise. Since no one in country has any, they won’t be upset. They got their money’s worth in dollars already.



    Read more: http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/156267-kaperoni-i-expect-this-to-start-any-day/page-2#ixzz2ap6lhMGe


    LOL........So I can already see the directive from the CBI.

    BY ORDER OF THE CBI....ALL IRAQIS MUST EXCHANGE ALL OF THEIR DINAR FOR DOLLARS SO THAT WE CAN DESTROY ALL OF THOSE DINAR AND RV THE TRILLIONS OF DINAR OUTSIDE OF IRAQ BY 100,000%.

    HAHAHAHAHA....I really cant tell if he actually believes the nonsense that he is spewing or if he is just another blatant pumper like his friends he is chatting with.

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    1. Oh that's a hoot! Are they going to send around goon squads to raid people's homes in search of dinar? If people don't turn them in are they going to jail? Are they going to order all banks to convert dinar accounts to dollar accounts? Are they going to force every vendor in the country to conduct dollar only transactions? Are they going to force every employer to make payroll in dollars? Yea, that's much easier to manage and control and doing a simple demonetization to reduce the money supply. At least he's no longer trying to make the case that the CBI will reduce the money supply by simply raising interest rates. LOL! What a buffoon. How is this scam not crystal clear to everyone? It's just utter stupidity on display.

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  8. Whether the pumpers are idiots or scammers is a good question. I think it’s a mix for the most part.
    This is a tough one to get the dinar crowd to swallow. I’ve seen this posted on boards before and even some of the faithful have a hard time believing this line of thinking. Sadly many still do believe it. Imagine the IQ level that would be required to believe that all Iraqis will be forced to give up their dinar so foreigners can become millionaires. I understand the big numbers just cause some to glaze over and not follow the mathematical impossibility of this scam, but when people fall for stories like this, it just makes you realize some people are simply so completely ignorant that there is nothing you can do for them. These are the people for which scammers exist. These are the people who the Nigerian e-mailers are looking for.

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  9. Very true Dave.....

    Sam if you have any Douchie Awards coming up then I here by nominate Steve (aka Ennorste). His delusion and outright ridiculous claims are more than deserving.

    Like Dave said.....the IQ (or lack there of) required to believe this ignorance is mind boggling. And all from an economic major. Lol

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  10. The breathtaking lunacy of Iraqi's not being upset that they were just forced to miss out on a 100,000% gain while foreigners suck the country of all wealth (if even that were possible, which it isn't of course) is staggering. But I'm not sure its a case of being too stupid or to low of an IQ to understand how crazy these ideas are or being a scammer. Belief is an odd thing. Its mote a case of willful ignorance Vs being a scammer. Anyone who thinks about it can see its not possible, its just not that complicated. It doesn't require more than 3rd grade arithmetic. But I think humans can wall off certain aspects of their reality and not think about it. They do things like telling themselves that none of that stuff matters as its all under the control of the mythical PTB. They don't allow any contradictory data to penetrate their fantasy fortress. I think that most, if not all, of the "gurus" ARE scammers, and its only their followers that fall under the willful ignorance label. But hard to know for sure.

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    1. I've been observing these guys for a couple of years now, and I think I probably know as much about them as anybody apart from the scammers themselves and law enforcement. I believe that what you have here is a mix. Some like TerryK and TonyTNT are out and out posers and know that almost everything they say is a lie or distortion. Some know that they're lying about some of the stuff but believe that some of it is true and they justify the lying because they believe that overall there is hope of an RV. Think Breitling and WangDang. Then there are people who believe everything that they are saying. I would put footforward (my personal favorite) and maybe Stryker in that category. Some like Kap and Enorrste I haven't figured out yet. I don't see how they can believe what they're saying but I don't really see how they're profiting from it either.

      I have concluded that the motivation isn't really the issue with me. It's like I've discovered a bridge that has collapsed. I don't care if it collapsed on its own, or from an accident, or was deliberately destroyed. I need to warn people about it until the authorities arrive and close it down. Some of these guys feel that they're providing an imporant service and that I should leave them alone, but that's not gonna happen. I'm not going to just go away and let people drive off into the dinar river because some guru thinks that their intentions are pure. If they're going to put it out there I'm going to comment. It's that simple.

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  11. Enorrste at least had the guts to come here and attempt debate which leads me to believe that he may stand behind the idiocy that he spouts and may even believe most of it. (Same with SWFG) Maybe years of being praised by hundreds as an "RV" genius has gone to his head and he just cannot come to terms with the fact that his thinking is beyond flawed even after he has been shown to be foolish by many on this site. I think he got a dose of something that he isn't use to in the dinar world. Reality.

    Krap on the other hand is a gutless coward straight out dinar pumper who knows better than to show up here because he knows he would be destroyed because he knows everything he spouts is fabricated nonsense with absolutely zero facts to back it up which is why he needs to stay in a forum (or forums) in which he can ban and censor anyone who would dare call him out on the lies. That's just my opinion on Kraper-pony. Not sure either how he is profiting but somewhere behind the scenes he is probably getting kick backs from dinar sales.

    Others like Not-so-Breitling and Montana in my opinion definitely know that RVs are bogus but are profiting from the lies so they have made it their full time jobs to confuse, distort facts, make up history, and manipulate the gullible into a cult like trance.

    You are right though Sam.....no matter what their motivation the bottom line is that they are misleading thousands and its good that there is voices of warning amongst the sea of deception.

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  12. I see the points that are being made but before the first gulf war the dinar was valued at $3.22 until the UN embargoed Iraq, so that fact being stated they were essentially cut off from trade creating inflation to .30 and now to a worse rate. Now that chapter 7 has been lifted they are now taken off restrictions from international trade, why can't the dinar rise back to near its previous rate of $3.22? I also found a page that had a .org after the url so i was wondering what you all thought about it, so check it out if you want. http://buydinar.org/DinarFacts.html Wanted to know if you all thought it was credible, so let me know. Thanks :-)

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    1. Hi crc123. The first problem with your comment is that the $3.22 value wasn't internationally recognized. There had already been a great deal of depreciation due to Saddam using the reserves and borrowing money to fund the war with Iran. Saddam set the value at $3.22 but the market value was closer to 33 cents. Then the sanctions drove the value further down to 3000:1 in 1995 according to the CBI website. You'd have to go back about 30 years to see a value of $3 or more that was considered legit. The second problem is that once a currency has depreciated due to hyperinflation there are basically two choices. You either leave the value in that state like Japan, S. Korea, and Vietnam have done or you redenominate like Turkey, Romania, Brazil, Russia, and dozens of other countries have done. You never see a currency reverse the trend and return to its former value because that would destroy the economy. Currency isn't stock, and one of the biggest lies told by the pumpers is that the dinar is like an undervalued stock in a company that has been turned around as is now profitable again.

      In regards to the link you gave us, it's pretty typical of the guru/pumper BS I've been opposing for the last couple of years. You notice that they quote the State Dept and the Wall Street Journal but they don't provide links to support what they said. The IQD isn't increasing rapidly as the site says. It's gone up a third of 1% in the last 4.5 years. It did increase in value 26% when they were bringing inflation back down to an acceptable level from 2006 to 2009, but that's about it. And the references to Germany and Kuwait are both typical pumper misrepresentations. Germany redenominated from the old reichsmark to the deutschmark after WWII. There was no big RV there. And Kuwait didn't RV either. The only place you could buy the Kuwaiti dinar at ten cents was on the black market in the region around Kuwait. The official value didn't change. So I'd say the site isn't credible. Hope that helps.

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    2. That's cool i understand that you have your views and other people have different ones so until something actually Happens one side will say the other is wrong then they will say they are wrong but eventually something will happen that will prove the other wrong once and for all, so thanks for commenting.

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    3. It's not a matter of views or opinions. What I listed are facts. No currency has ever appreciated 100,000%, 10,000%, 1,000% ... etc. Currencies don't do that. Germany didn't appreciate their currency back to its pre-war level. They redenominated. Look it up. Whatever conclusions you come to about the dinar need to be based on facts, not lies or distortions by people with ulterior motives. Hopefully you'll take the time to get the facts and make the right decision. Best wishes.

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    4. ctc123: One of the most common ploys of the pumpers is "well its just your opinion and no one really knows what will happen". That is true in the sense that no one has full knowledge of the future but, it is also true that Iraq can only choose to do what is possible to do and a RV is not possible. An RD is possible and they may or may not choose to execute one. So despite not knowing just what the future will bring, we know an RV can not happen just as while we do not know what group or country will go to the moon next and exactly how they will get there, we do know it won't be by bicycle.

      Another common guru tactic is just denying history. As Sam points out, the key fact is that Iraq has a hyper-inflated currency. They suffered years of massive inflation under Saddam so while the value of their money supply was not lost, it is spread out over a huge amount of low value currency. Its almost impossible to "unprint" currency. Most efforts by central banks along these lines are just to reduce the growth of the money supply or maybe contract it by a fraction of a percent. So the only way to reduce the money supply by 100,000% is to redenominate.

      The idea that a fiat currency (of which all the worlds currency are these days) can simply be set to any value the country wants is again just nonsense despite what the gurus tell you. The value of a pegged currency is limited by the ratio of the money supply to their foreign reserves. That is simply due to the fact that if a central bank pegs their currency that is a contract that they will exchange at that rate for all comers and thus they have to have the reserves to do so. For Iraq those exchangers are mostly the Iraqi's themselves needing dollars to buy imported goods since they little other than oil to sell to the world and that is sold in dollars. That is what the auctions are about. Think about those amounts of currency, 0.5T-1.5T IQD per week is exchanged for dollars. If the exchange rate were raised to 1 USD to 1 IQD, a single auction day would empty all of the CBI's foreign reserves and then the currency would have no value at all.

      We don't know if they will execute an RD or not, but it certainly is a possible, even likely outcome at some point. An RV on the other hand is simply not possible, such a thing does not exist. Iraq (like everyone one else) can only choose what to do from the array of what is possible to do, and suddenly having a money supply (75T dinar) valued at more then the entire rest of the world's money supply combined (around 50T dollars), is not in the realm of possibility.

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  13. #yolo, #fish, #gobigorgohome, crc123 out!

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    1. I at least would not call investing in something where there is no possibility of a good return as "going big".

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  14. This is a blog site and is based on opinion so what evs bro ;-)

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  15. You have a better chance of hitting the powerball lottery than you do Iraq increasing the dinar value by 100,000%.


    That isn't opinion. That is fact.

    I guess its fun to pretend that "nobody knows" and that all statements of fact and reality are just "opinion".

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  16. "Eventually something will happen" seems to be a predominant view among dinar investors. The problem is: something doesn't have to happen. And it won't, at least not as far as an RV is concerned. But as long as there is a future, the douchebags can claim it's still coming, it's just a function of "when". That keeps the suckers from dumping their VIP memberships or web site subscriptions or selling their dinar. After all, if someone never sells their dinar, they'll guarantee 100% loss on their "investment".

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  17. Like the stat, took a while to find that Didn't it :-), look i just wanted to see ur views because I'm just feeling around, so i got that and thank you but overall I'm done. I have stayed mostly neutral on the subject but have seen both sides and i have looked around the internet and will say i have seen at least 5 to 1 sites that are pro rv so that has just been my observation and IN MY OPINION :-), both sides have brought up good points and both try to prove the other wrong with their facts. You all have been great to talk to and i wish you all a good luck in life :-).

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    1. LOL. There are also more 5x more people who send "pro Nigerian spam e-mail" than "anti-spam services". As jrg said, that's where the money is (if you're dishonest enough). The reason the general populace doesn't create a ton of "anti RV" sites is because to 99% of the population, it's pretty self-evident why people like "Ali" of Dinar Trade are now millionaires (from the huge cut in selling Dinar and buying your $ at ripoff 20% spreads), whereas people who buy & hold Dinar for years on end haven't even broke even, and still can't even grasp basic concepts like "chronic inflation is not 'forgotten hidden wealth' just 'waiting' to be shared out"...


      crc123 - "both sides have brought up good points and both try to prove the other wrong with their facts"

      Most "facts" by the RV crowd are simply wild misinterpretations or flat-out lies. Like "1 Dinar = $3", which simply wasn't a real peg outside of Saddam's mind. Or Kuwait's "RV" which simply didn't exist at all. When Saddam invaded Kuwait, its internal black market rate spiked (inside Kuwait) when some Kuwaiti's panicked, but its international value didn't change at all. This is a measurable objective mathematical fact not someone's opinion which has "equal merit" when "shared" in a certain way, on certain "anything goes" forums if you "want to believe" enough.

      The RV bunch also spent years claiming "facts" like "Iraq has taken 70% of banknotes out of the money supply" or laughably that "Iraq's money supply has shrunk to 3tn", which is debunked right there on the Statistics section of the CBI's own website, and updated every single month (and by everyday Iraqi's). When "reminded" of these past pumped 'facts' on pumper controlled forums (DinarVets, etc), such "trouble-making" posts get rapidly deleted (censored) within 5 minutes and the poster's account banned - simply for quoting the pumpers own "facts", claims & predictions back to them.

      "There's 5x more pro-RV sites so it must be true" and "no-one can possibly know what will happen when Iraq says they'll redenominate dozens of times" are simply the two propaganda tactics of "Appeal to Popularity / Bandwagon" and "Appeal to Ignorance

      If there were no price-redenomination (lop) and people believed the "RV" would mean 1 Dinar = $1 or even $3, then do people really think that an Iraqi who bought an old 2nd hand Toyota for 3m Dinars (approx $2.5k), would suddenly be able to sell it for $2.5m-$7.5m internationally (whilst brand new Toyotas from Japan still cost $12k-$30k)? If not, then they're admitting the "RV" is nothing more than a fake peg that would not even remotely reflect the normal prices of goods for international trade.

      The 99,000-297,000% RV is flat-out wrong - not subjectively in the sense of a "clash of opinions" - but objectively in that It's mathematically impossible for a country to have more money in circulation than the whole planet of every currency on Earth combined of which Iraq's economy makes up about 0.5%.

      If you see nothing wrong with Iraq having a $90,000bn-$270,000bn money supply with only a $120bn economy, and if you see nothing wrong with Iraq having internationally priced $1,000-$3,000 loaves of bread go ahead and buy some - you're just the "right" kind of person who would fit perfectly into "suspension of critical thinking" pumper forums...

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  18. Of course there are more web sites that promote an RV than there are sites that debunk the RV myth, there is money in the first but not the second. If you think an RV is possible, then just explain how. Where will the money come from? No one on any of these sites has ever been able to do so as far as I know. All they do is doge the question.

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    1. I can vouch for the fact that there's not much money in debunking the RV. All that I've managed to do with my Google revenues is make up for what I lost when I sold my dinar. But at least I can sleep at night.

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  19. I really know or care if it is possible, that was not really my point for commenting, I just wanted to see your views on the subject, that is all. I did that and I have acomplished that because of you all responding to my first question, so now you all can stop trying to persuade someone that is neutral that just wanted to feel around for both sides views. Thanks for giving your views on the subject and this will be my final comment.

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  20. I don't understand your statement. If you do not care if an RV is possible, then why are you interested in hearing views on the subject? If you do not understand that an RV is impossible, as your "neutral" stance seems to imply, then you also do not understand the issues.

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    1. I agree it was misleading so just to clearify, I do care if it is possible, I just don't know if it is possible my self which is why I am neutral and want people that know if it is to give me thier views. So hopefuly it is some what clear why I wanted your view. Sorry it did not appear to me misleading until you commented so thanks for letting me clearify. I appreciate you giving your information which has helped me see what different people have to say on the topic and now that I have cleared this up I have now accomplished what I wanted :-). Thank you all, crc

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  21. Hahaha.....all you need to know is that RVs are made fantasy. Once you come to terms with that fact then feeling out different postions becomes irrelevant.

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  22. yea I guess so, but on a more important note (lol), at the bottom of the page an advertisement for five finger death punches new album was flashing, it is awsome, if any of you like rock their song "lift me up" is the one I like best so you all should check it out. Its like the web page was reading my mind that I wanted to listen to the song :-).

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    1. Google AdSense does read your mind in a way. Your cookies reveal your browsing habits and Google selects an ad to run based on that. I've actually been accused of hypocrisy by some people because I run a blog debunking the dinar investment even though I supposedly run dinar ads on the blog, but those ads appear because the users have been visiting dinar sites. If they had been browsing lingerie sites they would probably see a Fredericks of Hollywood ad. All I do is sell the ad space to Google and they handle the rest.

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  23. Yea that's cool i figured that because i had just listened to that song on YouTube before i went on this site because they released their new album on July 31. If you listen to it and you like rock it will make you feel like you can carry the world on your shoulders :-)

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  24. I'm unclear as to what the problem with making money from the sites you point out... Last I checked we were a capitalist Country that encouraged new business. I purchased Dinar many years ago and its price per million has closed to doubled so to argue the investment as non profit is absurd. Words of advise buy on the rumor sell on the news. Understand that you should be informed in any investment and you should not invest more than you can afford to lose. There are thousands of intelligent informed investors involved in dinar investment. Our own treasury department holds an undisclosed amount of dinar but its rumored to be in the 100 billions. Do what you will but to bash folks for running an honest website is juvenile at best and your site is ridiculous and unfounded. I would almost venture to guess that if you continue your path of defamation it wont be long until you get the attention you deserve, served civil suit style, for liable and slander as your blog clearly could damage the site owners in the form of lost revenue just to name one of personal liabilities you have created.
    Good day.
    P.R. Hancock JD PS

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    1. I'm all for capitalism. But I'm also for honesty, and it's dishonest to suggest that a website can't be doing anything wrong or misleading just because they're not being paid by a dealer.

      If you've managed to make a profit on the dinar then congratulations. I can assure you the increases you have seen weren't on any of the gurus' radar screens or pre-announced on any rumour website. You might want to consider taking profits before Iraq redenominates because it could be a bit tricky doing so afterward.

      As for the US Treasury holding dinar, they only hold enough for daily transactions and hold no dinar for investment purposes. That was stated in last year's indictment of Brad Huebner and Rudy Coenen, but you won't read that fact on the rumour sites.

      Honest websites? Seriously? They post lies under the guise of "rumours". Those lies affect lives. They influence people into making tragically bad investment choices. What I'm doing isn't defamation. It's consumer protection. Perhaps you should read the definitions of liable and slander. To qualify, your statements must be untrue. What have I stated that isn't true?

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