Douchie for July 8-14

This was an interesting week, not so much because of intel but because of some of the things being said by douchebags in the dinar community.  Let's start with Blaino and Hammerman.

Apparently the honeymoon is over, as Blaino absolutely ripped HM in a post and an email and banned him from his forum Planet Dinar.  I'm not sure but I believe Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries were together longer than these two.  I don't really know what triggered it but you can read Blaino's thoughts here.

Hammerman quickly had his own new website and responded with a conference call a couple of days later, admitting among other things that he had a drug addiction for 17 years, that he is living with his parents even though he's in his forties, and that he has been in jail but never in prison.  It should come as no surprise that this guy who claims to have the best intel in the dinar world has such a sordid past.  No surprise to my readers anyway.  This is actually quite typical.

Next we had Dan "Checkmate" Atkinson saying in a conference call on Thursday that the numbers don't matter when it comes to the RV.  The reason according to Dan is that the powers that be (PTB) will work their magic and make it happen.  Well, at least he admitted that the numbers don't add up.  That's better than you'll get from a lot of these gurus.


But after careful consideration I felt that this week's Douchie has to go to Adam "Wolfyman" Montana for this (my comments are in bold black):

07/11/2012

[kcw] rightsonword In regards to the ISX, if there is an RV of any amount, we make money. But in the case of bunny-ear, how long before considerable gains are made in your opinion. I would assume that after this whole currency fiasco is done and over with that Iraq's economy should begin to grow rapidly to some extent due to the stability, or at least "perceived" stability, that the ND would bring to the financial, economic sectors, government, etc.

[Adam Montana] In my opinion, you are 100% correct in your assessment of the situation and how the ISX fits in. So the question is "how long before we see profits after a l0p or an RV?"
[Adam Montana] Let's start with "worst case scenario". We see the dreaded (lop) bunny-ear, all of our cash values are reset to a neutral value, and we are forced to wait for the value to grow naturally. In this case, I'm looking at about 6 months before things really start to grow. After that 6 month period, I would expect to see MAJOR growth, giving me 2-3-4-5x my investment. Not what I am hoping for, but it's sure better than what my 401k has done over the last 5 years!  

(While this appears more realistic than predictions of a 100,000% return like you see with many gurus, there's no way the dinar will grow to 5 times its value ($4.30) even after a lop.  Currencies of emerging economies don't move like stocks.  In reality it will take years to go from $1 to $2, if it happens at all.  The only exception to that would be a total collapse of the USD.) 



[kcw] cashman54 Adam, you the man. ... I was looking at the Wall Street Journal this morning and I noticed some of the other currency rates in the Middle East (This information is found in Market and Data section of Money and Investing)
Kuwait Dinar = $3.555
Bahrain Dinar = $2.67
Jordan Dinar = $1.4127
Saudia Arabia riyal = $0.2667
Egypt pound = $0.1650
What I was just curious about is although I am sure these countries have wealth and resources too, it can't be a whole lot better than Iraq right? That just leads me to believe that Iraq deserves to have a decent currency rate you know? Wouldn't you agree that Iraq has more wealth than at least one of these countries and deserves to have a rate at least equivalent to Egypt? Would love to know your thoughts. Thank you for taking my question.

[Adam Montana] I do agree! Iraq does have more natural resources and definitely should have a currency valued at or higher than a country like Egypt. That's another reason I'm hanging onto my IQD  

(The Egyptian pound currently has a little over a trillion [1.0589 trillion to be exact] units in their M2.  At a valuation of $.165 that comes to a monetary base of approximately $165 billion.  Their GDP is roughly twice that of Iraq's.  If Iraq was to RV to 20 cents [a bit higher than Egypt's 16.5 cents] with their current M2 of 72 trillion that would amount to the equivalent of $14.4 trillion in their monetary base.  Would it make sense for a country with a GDP half that of Egypt's to have a monetary base 87 times [$14.4 trillion divided by $165 billion] as much?  Come on, Adam!  Do the math!)  




[kcw] imgesing Adam, The articles have come out now, as it did over a year ago comparing this to Turkey's RD. Can you please explain how it might be similar or dissimilar? What do we trust and what should we be looking at to affirm the potential value of the future dinar? Thanks for all you have done and thank you in advance.

[Adam Montana] Lots of people will compare Iraq to Turkey simply to back up their negative points. True, there are some similarities... but the big picture is very different. Iraq is NOT Turkey, so we can't expect them to make the same choices Turkey made. The lopsters will deny that, but... there's a good reason I don't spend much time talking to lopsters

(Nice dodge, Adam.  The comparison was first made by Shabibi.  Their inflation rate was about what Iraq's is now [around 8%] and their economy was growing at over 8% like Iraq's.  It's all in my post Let's Talk Turkey.)



[kcw] jon29 Hi Adam, one question and please bear with me since I'm not a whiz with this stuff. There have been discussions from time to time about the currency Revaluation and Iraq being able to back it up. One school of thought is hard currency, reserve money, cash "on-hand" backing up the dinar to improve the rate. Another, is the geological assets (like oil in the ground), being calculated to back up a new rate. Which or both of these ideas would be correct with Iraq improving the dinar to a new rate? I hope this isn't remedial and off-base. Thanks.

[Adam Montana] Don't worry about being a whiz at this stuff - it's not 2nd grade material, it's complicated and there is a lot of room for confusion.
[Adam Montana] Regarding Iraq's "cash on hand", geological assets, etc... let's just back up and compare apples to apples. Why do people insist that they have to have "cash on hand" to back up an RV when the US doesn't even follow that guideline? The US does NOT have gold, assets, or "cash" to back up the "value" of our monetary system. The debt we have IS part of the "value" of our money, it is on our balance sheet. Ever since we left the gold standard our "value" has basically been given to us by China and every other country that we owe money to based on one thing: CREDIT.
[Adam Montana] So, if the US doesn't have to have "cash on hand" to back up our debts, why does Iraq?
[Adam Montana] Quite simply, they are not "credit worthy" at this time due to recent instability of the government and their whole situation in general
[Adam Montana] is that changing? YES. Do they have an amazing amount of assets to back up a higher valued currency? YES. Can the entire world benefit from a higher valued Iraqi Dinar? YES.

(Actually it's not that complicated.  Iraq isn't backing their currency with their oil.  They're backing it 100% with their foreign currency reserves which total about $63 billion last I heard.  With 72 trillion in their M2 money supply they can only support a valuation of $.00086.  To raise the value substantially they need to either A. reduce their money supply B. reduce the percentage they use to back their currency C. increase their foreign currency reserves.  They're obviously not reducing their money supply if you read the financial report on their website, and they can't really back their currency with less than 100% because there's so little confidence in it right now, so the only remaining option is to substantially increase their foreign currency reserves.  The only realistic way to do that is to increase their oil production, and currently their infrastructure doesn't really allow for them to increase production by more than about 20% a year.  So unless they do an about face on the money supply I'd say that's about all the increase you could expect to see in the dinar's value for the foreseeable future.  So if the dinar only increases in value by 20% the banks shouldn't have any trouble exchanging them .... IF you can find a bank that handles dinar, that is.)  

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/122814-adams-official-chat-71112/

It was responses like these that convinced me that this guy wasn't a Harvard grad as he claimed, and led to his eventually being exposed.  Hopefully people are starting to get informed now, and see through some of the BS that passes for realistic analysis.