Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Breitling Speaks

I just listened to Breitling's response to my post last week entitled "And the Backpedaling Begins" and I feel that I have to respond. 
  1. Breitling takes a jab at these loppers who are holding onto dinar "just in case".  Okay, maybe I need to clear some things up.  While I can't speak for others I've never told anybody not to buy dinar and I've never told anybody to sell, nor have I called it a scam.  From my very first post entitled "RV Reality Check" I have stated that this is a risky, speculative investment (unlike people like Breitling who have presented it as a 100% sure thing).  Yes I still own dinar, but not nearly as much as I once did and that is because I know a hell of a lot more about it than I did when I first bought.  I am holding on to a small amount just for kicks - no more than I could afford to blow on a weekend in Vegas.  I have always acknowledged that Iraq might decide not to lop, although a lop is clearly what they've been describing when they refer to removing the zeros.  (Ali confirmed that fact in his recent interview with Roger.)  If they choose to go the RV route then I've got a shot at making money here.  Although I know from my research that revaluations of 100,000% don't happen I do think it's possible that Iraq could RV at an unprecedented amount of 100% or more.  In other words I could double or triple my investment.  The problem with the pumpers isn't that they're saying we could make a profit off the dinar.  The problem is in the way they are presenting how revaluations work which is absolute fantasy.  Anybody who suggests that a revaluation from $.00086 to $.86 is realistic with 30 trillion in circulation or that Iraq is going to reduce the money supply to less than a trillion without an RD (lop) is either lying or deluded.  When I say I'm holding on to some dinar it's not because I think I might become a millionaire.  It's because I have weighed the risk (remember there's no guarante that US investors will be able to exchange our dinar for USD or the new dinar after a redenomination) vs. reward and arrived at an amount that I feel comfortable risking which ain't much, I assure you.  It's certainly not $40-50K like Breitling suggested. Ali has stated more than once that he expects to see the dinar slowly increasing in value until it is worth a penny, and at that time he will open his cash-in centers.  If they don't lop I think Ali's scenario is much more believable than the overnight millionaire crap.  That's the reason I still hold some dinar, because there is a possibility of the dinar being worth considerably more in the future, albeit somewhat of a gamble.  It doesn't mean I think Breitling might be right about turning $1000 into a million. Nor does it mean that I'm "screwing" with anybody.  And I'm certainly not working for any dinar dealers since I have repeatedly raised the issue of illiquidity.  How anybody could conclude that my comments would motivate people to buy more dinar is beyond me.   
  2. Breitling says that I'm misrepresenting what he said.  Okay, let's review what he said in the first 14 minutes of this video.  "If they don't follow through there's nothing I can do about it."  "If you're prepared to jump out of the window because you didn't make money off this investment and you're gonna throw a little fit and all that stuff, you should have never been in this investment in the first place."  "You always have to consider that this could be a disaster. That's investments. It's time to grow up."  Exactly how did I misrepresent him?
  3. Breitling is spinning it that if Iraq doesn't RV to around $1 it's because they didn't do what they said they would do, and it's not because Breitling is continually misrepresenting what they've been saying.  I don't think the CBI could be much clearer about their intentions to lop.  They've said it over and over again.  They want to replace the IQD with a new currency at a rate of 1000:1.  They want to reduce the money supply in the process.  They want to ease cash transactions.  This won't change the purchasing power or the savings of the Iraqi people.  It will just make things easier.  Nobody gains anything and nobody loses anything (except for investors who paid 20% more for the dinar that it's worth).  This is my biggest beef with these guys.  They're taking statements about a textbook redenomination and trying to make them mean an unprecedented and quite impossible revaluation to 1000 times or more the current value that will make people millionaires.  They're exploiting novice currency investors who aren't sophisticated enough to see how ridiculous it is to believe you can get rich off an RD. 
  4. Breitling says that these guys posting against him and the dinar came over from IIF (Investors Iraq Forum) and used to post on Dinar Daddy.  I've never posted on or even joined IIF.  I did join Dinar Daddy only to gain access to something but I never posted there.  I don't know who Breitling is referring to but whoever these other guys are I've never met them.
  5. Breitling says I'm trying to bury him.  I'm not out to bury anybody.  I'm just out to present facts to counter the hype and truth to counter the lies.  I'm out to bury the BS about the dinar, and if you're clinging to the BS you might get buried in the process.  It's nothing personal.  Just collateral damage.
The main point that I wanted to address last week was that Roger admitted that he took time off to work on a plan to service his customers in the event of a lop.  In my opinion there's no way he would be doing that unless he had concluded that a redenomination is a strong possibility, which is contrary to what these pumpers have been telling us in the past.   

Back in October I did a post called "Dinar Daddy and Okie" where I presented a theory that Roger got into the dinar because he thought he knew a close associate of Dick Cheney who had inside information on the RV.  That associate turned out to be the laughing stock of the dinar world .... Okie Oilman.  Since Roger had already committed himself his focus became his website and his products rather than the dinar investment itself which he apparently realizes now is likely to be a bust.  Thus the reassessment.  I wrote that post seven months ago and since I wrote it things seem to be confirming the theory's validity.  

I hope Iraq does decide to RV instead of RD.  That way I stand to make up some of the money I've lost.  But I'm fairly convinced as September approaches that the writing on the wall will become clear to just about all of these guys and one by one they'll all look for some way to cover their backsides.  Should be entertaining.



    1. sam, this guy your are talking about banned me from youtube and his website because i asked the same questions you are asking. He's hiding more that he puts out and blocks logical inquiries to his statements. I too have liquidated 75% of this magic money and I do not believe it will ever benefit anyone outside of Iraq.

    2. I posted this on your last topic. I'm dragging it over here because it relates better here.

      Just listened to Breitling. LOL….He seems to be backtracking from the backtracking. He even claims Roger didn’t mean what he said.
      Glad to hear his listeners are sending him this site info.
      Question?? Where in the hell does Breitling come up with this claim that the original 15 Trillion dinar were worth 4 cents? Is he smoking crack? First of all there was no magical “first 15 trillion”. The original exchange was 4.5 trillion dinar.
      Breitling’s math is that of a 4 year old. Just make up numbers… gibberish.

      The math that he talks about that is so simple. Well… he is correct in that respect… but you have to look at the real numbers and it all makes sense.
      Iraq has $60 Billion in FX reserves. Their M2 is 70 Trillion dinar.
      They have stated they want to maintain 100% backing.
      Well guess what. 60 billion (dollars) divided by 70 Trillion (dinar) comes out to .000857 or 1166. I guess Breitling will claim that’s just a coincidence.
      How simple and telling can you get.
      The IMF has even stated the dinar is fairly priced exactly where it is. The real grown up math backs it up.

      It’s hilarious… Breitling says the first 15 trillion that came out was the M1… then the second 15 trillion that came out was the M2… I’m rolling on the floor here. He’s a complete moron… and people fall for his crap.

      To another of Breitlings comments. I can guarantee you that I don’t have one single dinar.
      The lop is not going to be a 2 or 3 hundred percent profit. It will be and even exchange for Iraqis, while people holding dinar in a shoebox half way around the world will loose money selling back to Breitling’s buddy Roger.

    3. Furthermore… I guess I’m one of those he talks about who came from IIF and was then on Dinar Daddy.
      When I bought dinar back in 2005 I was a believer so I joined IFF and the nuttiest guys on the site at that time talked about a 30 cent RV. Most reasonable people hoped for a penny or half a penny and wildly dreamed of 3 cents. It was a pumper named Clay75 (wonder who he is now) who suddenly took it to 40 cents. Then super wild claims of up to $1. It was during that time frame that a few pretty bright guys on IFF found the financial sheets posted on the Central Bank of Iraq website. Once the massive money supply numbers were discovered it was pretty much a done deal at that point. A big RV was not going to happen. Most all of the better posters disappeared at that time and I thought the whole thing would fall apart. Obviously I was wrong. Soon after Clay75 was exposed as a dinar dealer and disappeared. I’m guessing he just moved on to another site with a different alias. The summer of 2006 is when the first redenomination article came out. The minister of finance was proposing it to the Central Bank of Iraq. A quick education on redenominations was all it took for me and I sold 100% right then and there and I though most would follow. Wrong again. I got banned from IIF for trying to explain the money supply numbers to people. I posted on Dinar Daddy and he shut down comments on his site because of me and a few other guys. Same thing… simply trying to educate people on money supply and redenominations. I remember Roger and many gurus saying over and over that money supply DID NOT MATTER. It’s funny to hear him and Breitling now talking about money supply as if they knew all along the money supply was an issue.
      I also posted on IHUB as Aerospace until they made it a pay board which pretty much killed it. I currently post in the comments section on Iraq Business News under the name Stew.
      For the record. I never knew of Sam until a few months ago when I discovered his blog. I’ve never spoken to him or any other so called lopper.

      1. Well then I stand corrected. I guess I do know one of the guys from IIF and Dinar Daddy but I didn't realize it until today. Thanks for the history lesson Dave. Interesting stuff.

      2. Yeah, very interesting, great post Dave. IMO Dave's history lesson shows that until Iraq RD's, this scam isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

    4. OK, maybe this is just me, but I'm listening to the Breitling video and at the 13:30 mark he starts to explain an RD, and then he says that Iraq is going to HAVE to RD. Then he makes a jab at Adam Montana because AM has always said that an RD is bad. Then a couple of minutes later he says there is no way they will LOP.

      Now before I go off and call him a stupid douchebag idiot - does someone else want to take a listen and see if it's me missing something here?

      1. I'm not really sure but I think B is under the impression that this RD is unique because they won't lop like normal RDs but they will reverse engineer by pulling in the larger notes until their money supply is around 30 billion dinar then they will roll out the new lower denoms and flip the switch on the RV. So according to him the RD is a good thing (Adam is sticking with the conventional definition of RD .... lop)but the lop is a bad thing and they mean two different things (I think ... ???) and what Iraq is doing is a special RD/RV. Phoenix has promoted this idea too calling it a novel solution to a novel situation. Other adherents to this belief are Enorrste, Kaperoni, Randy Koonce, and possibly Scooter, along with most of the newshound gurus. They might not refer to it as an RD like B does but I think that's what they all believe. I believed that too until I saw that the money supply was going up instead of down and a country that's trying to reverse engineer by shrinking the money supply so that they can raise the value isn't going to go from 26 trillion to 30 trillion in their money supply.

      2. OK, that makes total sense. And this whole time I was thinking that Iraq would LOP like the other countless examples of countries that have pioneered the LOP!

      3. They know exactly how a RD works...they have to spin it to fit their lies and keep site traffic from going down. Iraq will redenominate and that's a fact. I can't wait for the printing of new currency. What will they say when the rd process starts and millions of IQD holders are not able to exchange their old for new. Iraq will close boarders just like they have before

      4. calling I haven't figured out yet if Breitling is dishonest or just confused. All I know for sure is that he is wrong. Iraq is not reducing the money supply. All you have to do is talk to somebody living in Iraq and they'll tell you that the larger denoms are everywhere. Randy Koonce just repeated today that you can't remove 70% of an exchange rate, and since the CBI said that they had removed 70% of the three zeroes they must be talking about the larger notes. This is one of those forum facts that has been around for 2 years now and it came from a report about removing 70% of excess liquidity. These guys just take whatever story out there seems to suit their fancy on how this will happen and then run with it.

      5. Well Sam seeing as how breitling works for roger and pumps the lower denoms for him I'm sure he is being dishonest and is misleading on purpose. He is not a financial advisor and he has no clue how currencies work. The guy sounds ridiculous when he has to defend himself. He's guilty believe that.

        The 70% excess liquidity story has been beaten to death and debunked but they still try and squeeze that lie into their agenda. We all know what the CBI financials say and this is not a big conspiracy to cover up an rv. They are under sanctions and must be transparent.

        When Iraq releases an RD article it's smoke and mirrors and they say Iraq won't show their hand pointing to an rv

        Then when an article is good or misrepresented it's see I told you there will be an rv.

        They constantly contradict themselves and mislead. Anyone who claims they have contacts or is on guru status are in on the scam. This "investment" is a joke as are the fools that share "intel" are.

      6. I think a good indicator of Breitling being either dishonest or confused would be the amount of money he is making from his dinar related ventures. If he's making a lot then I would have to lean toward dishonest. If he's making a little I would lean toward dishonest too.

      7. I think it’s both. Stupidity is obvious and duplicity can be inferred.

    5. Absolutely correct Sam, in every detail, as are all of the replies here thus far. Breitling has talked in circles for several years now, but has DEFINITELY back pedaled recently. There is SO much well documented evidence of his total BS over an extended period of time, it's difficult to imagine how even HIS delusional brain can believe that there's any way out for him. Some people might excuse stupidity, but I doubt that many will have any sympathy for him when his lower denom nonsense finally comes to light, and people suddenly realize how much money they've lost by listening to his unbelievably "misinformed" diatribes. He and Roger have very likely made serious money selling Dinars while fully aware of the likely outcome.

      Adam (Wolf) is one of a very few who have repeatedly acknowledged that the RD is a possibility, but he did so with a very carefully calculated belief that he was somehow covering his ass, when virtually everything else out of his mouth continuously encouraged people to buy even MORE Dinars than the others, by low-balling the fictional RV at .10 cents, convincing investors that they didn't hold nearly enough to make a significant profit, and therefor desperately needed to avail themselves of his VIP services and books. I wouldn't want to be ANY of the three of them when this thing finally unravels.

    6. I think this was referenced here a few days ago but I think the article has been updated.

      "Iraqi Parliament Finance Committee revealed, on Tuesday, that cutting zeros off Iraqi dinar and its redenomination will be taking place in January 2013 adding that printing the new currency will start as of September 2012.
      “Zeros will be cut off Iraqi dinar and the currency will be denominated in January 2013,” Finance Committee member Haitham Al Jabouri told Alsumarianews noting that printing the new currency bills will start in September 2012.
      “The redenomination of old Currency requires a whole year and the old currency will be fully withdrawn from Iraqi market in the first half of 2014,” Jabouri said stressing that cutting the three zeros off the currency and its redenomination intend to stabilize Iraqi Dinar and decrease demand on the hard currency."

      So no later than June 2014 to cash your old Dinars in.

    7. I'm gonna use a dinaraholic term here. Smokescreen. I will be very surprised if they give that long for the exchange. First off they don't want to advertise a short exchange period because that would lead people to panic and bail early into the dollar. Also they have talked about the concern of counterfeiting. The longer the exchange period, the more exposure to counterfeiting they have.

      1. I don't understand your concerns. The timescale suggests a minimum of 12 months and a maximum of 18 months to switch to "New Dinars". I would think that is normal for such a change. I also think the average Iraqi isn't going to panic into dollars, why should they? It's a redenomination, nothing changes except the number of zeros on the note. I don't recall France having a massive currency run in 1960 or the Euro countries having massive issues with citizens buying Dollars or SFr in 1999 and that was a swap to a new currency not a redenomination.

    8. My concern if I held dinar would be that Iraq is fuly aware that Trillions of dinar are outside of Iraq held by speculators. Iraq stands to gain Billions of dollars if they shorten the exchange period and block currency from re-entering the country.

      1. 18 months maximum is short for this sort of thing from what I can gather. French franc in 1960 ran old and new in parallel for two years I think. British decimalisation was run up over about two years, with several "old" coins still circulating for several years afterwards.
        Note the 18 months is the maximum time frame. The article says starting January 2013 and fully withdrawn in the first half of 2014. That could become effectively not much more than a year. I fully expect old Dinars to only be encashable in specific banks in Iraq and either an upper limit on the amount exchangeable or a daily limit on the amount exchangeable. Further, as I think happened in some places with the Euro introduction, the authorities were keep to interview people who suddenly turned up with stacks of notes. Given all that, the average Dinar Sucker isn't going to get anything whatever the "rate" is at the time.

      2. I don't dispute what you are saying one bit Arthur... but you are looking at redenomination examples that involve joining a currency union. A much better comparison would be to look at the more classic redenominations where coutries are replacing their currency to erase the effects of past inflation. Some of those are very short, some are up to a year I think.
        Problem we have is I don't think there are any examples where a countries currency was being held in shoe boxes in closets around the world to the tune of Trillions.

      3. France 1960. That's exactly what was going on. Two years to swap from old franc to new franc, no big difficulties as far as I know.
        I don't think there's trillions around the world, in fact I'd be surprised if there's more than billions held outside of Iraq. Trillions means 10^12 which at current exchange rates would mean $858,000,000 being held by investors outside of Iraq.

      4. A real fortune could be made by someone who opened a dinar based bank account (which would automatically accomplish the exchange) and when "Oh Shit Day" comes offers to buy dinar at,say, 50% of the official rate for dollars or more likely, euros. Make the offer, start it high, not expecting much at first, keep adjusting down. If you were big enough you could control the market and the lower you offer, the more panic will spread and the more you'll take in. As you get closer to the deadline it's possible you could be buying Dinar at 10 cents on the dollar and just deposit them in your bank, when you need real money just wire transfer funds into a dollar account.
        Of course, you'll need to delay payment for a time to "verify" the incoming Dinar (think float interest here) and that can also be used for marketing as you can give better turn around time if they provide the otherwise useless "certificates" they got from dealers when they first got suckered in.
        This will be very easy to do, actually. Just think of how you'd set up your banking arrangements if you were a US company operating in Iraq and taking in cash. It might be a tough sell to a US bank, but I'm sure some euro banks would do it and I have my suspicions that the reason Ali has been seen in the UK is he's setting up his real cash in plans,not for the RV, but for when all the pretty pictures people have now get a definite deadline.

    9. Breitling is dishonest...I remember when he first came around several years ago...he was on medics "private" dinar vets site. This was before he had his own blog and following. I was a member there and remember him coming into chat claiming to have contacts that were sitting in on the meetings with Iraq regarding the upcoming RV. He would constantly say "don't worry, this is s sure thing, my guys are in on negotiations". I'm pretty sure he wasn't saying this because he was confused, he is an outright liar and has been for years....and he is good at playing this "i'm no rate and date guy i just deal with the facts"...then completely butchers the facts...I still find it interesting that there are so many of these "gurus" connected to medic: Sonny1 is one of his good friends, Breitling got his start on his site...as did Adam Montana. Phoenix also spent some time there before starting his own site.

    10. Correct, JMW. I too was there, reading his never-ending BS about having reputable contacts in the Mideast with inside info. Absolutely none of the provided intel was ever accurate. Not long after, he began touting the Vietnamese Dong as well, promising that it was going to RV at any moment,from one weekend to the next. I suspect that Medic's site was nothing more than a "training ground" for the "real" douchebags, who eventually learned how to make serious money from the RV fantasy as it continued to grow. While it's blatantly clear how Montana (James Wolf), Breitling (Tony Elder, Dinar Daddy (Roger Dorman)and some of the others make money with their endless lies and manipulation, I've yet to see a clear indicator as to how Medic (Rich Mattson)is doing it, though I feel certain that he hasn't spent many hours daily for more than 3 years without compensation from somewhere. Hopefully it will all become very clear in the near future. It's difficult to fathom that these people will survive the wrath of their angry and cheated followers when the truth is eventually realized.

      I have no doubt that Arthur's estimate of there being only "billions" of Dinar outside of Iraq is an extreme miscalculation. The dealers have readily admitted selling billions each month for several years now. Court documents in one case alone described millions of Dollars in Dinar sales. I suspect that "several trillion" is a rather conservative estimate, and the numbers are still increasing daily. People like Montana have drastically increased sales by guesstimating the RV at a paltry 10 cents, convincing investors that they don't hold nearly enough Dinars to achieve the "overnight millionaire" status they desperately desire.

    11. "I have no doubt that Arthur's estimate of there being only "billions" of Dinar outside of Iraq is an extreme miscalculation. The dealers have readily admitted selling billions each month for several years now."
      Please Legolas, is that figure from their audited accounts? From dealers who aren't registered as dealers, who can't tell an RV from an RD (LOP)? There couldn't possibly be a bit of exaggeration going on to try to sell some more could there?
      From what I can gather there is about 20-30 trillion Dinars in circulation. Based on 30 trillion that's $25 billion in total in the world. It might just be possible that there are enough investors to be holding over 4% of a nation's total cash but I doubt it. I also doubt it for another reason. Let's say there is $1bn being held by "investors". What has the average sucker put into this? $50,000? That would mean there's 20,000 of them. Make the average investment $10,000 and there would have to be 100,000 people holding dinars. It's possible but I think unlikely.
      I find even less likely the claim that they've been selling billions each month for years. Run the figures. 30 months of a billion a month? They have sold a minimum of 1/1000th of a nation's total cash? If they are all selling billions then it gets even more unconvincing. You can multiply every dealer by every billion by that 1/1000th and you can soon get to an unbelievable figure.


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