Monday, June 16, 2014

A Few Thoughts on the Situation

Soooo ..... did we RV yet?  All kidding aside, the current situation in Iraq is an unmitigated disaster.  Let's just forget about the dinar for a moment and think about the ramifications.  Turkey to the north is concerned because dozens of Turkish diplomats have been taken hostage by ISIS.  Shia-controlled Iran to the east is offering military assistance to fight off the invasion.  Syria to the west is also concerned, since a Sunni-led revolution next door in Iraq could pose an ongoing threat to their government which is seen as Shia-supported.  When their government faced resistance from ISIS they found Russia among their supporters so we could assume that Russia would support the Iraqi government in this conflict as China already has.  Saudi Arabia to the south is mainly Sunni, and some of the funding for ISIS came from there.  The Saudis have offered resistance to the Shia influence in the region and will no doubt be watching for any signs of renewed uprisings in their area.  Allowing an anti-western entity like ISIS to gain a foothold in the region is a huge mistake, and sooner or later it's one that is going to draw US military involvement again.  But it's hard to isolate this one foreign policy screwup, because it stems from a long line of miscues going back decades. 


Shah of Iran
Ayatollah Khomenei
In 1978 there was an Islamic uprising inside of Iran.  At the time Iran's leader was the Shah, a US ally who followed his father into power in 1941.  In 1951 he was forced from power and fled Iran after a failed coup attempt.  He was restored to power two years later in a CIA funded and orchestrated coup under Eisenhower.  In 1979 he faced another political threat as cries came to "oust the fascist Shah", largely coming from forces loyal to Ayatollah Khomenei, an exiled Muslim cleric.  When he came to the US for medical treatment radicals in Iran stormed the US embassy and took State Department employees hostage for over a year.  President Carter had the option at the time of authorizing a CIA covert operation similar to what Eisenhower had done in 1953 which could have kept a US ally in power, but he refused.  He naively thought that American interests would be better served by non-interference.  As a result the Shah was deposed in 1979 and Iran became an anti-American theocracy under Khomenei.

This led to an Islamic fundamentalist movement that spread throughout the Muslim world.  Prior to the deposition of the Shah the Arab world was becoming westernized.  Young Arab boys listened to the Beatles and watched American movies.  Young Arab girls wore blue jeans and makeup.  That all changed after the Ayatollah came to power. 


In the photo above you can see Osama bin Laden (from Saudi Arabia) wearing bell bottoms during a ski trip to Europe around 1971.  This was very typical of younger Arabs in that day.  It's quite a contrast from the way that younger Saudis and Iranians dress today.  Had we been willing to stand by the Shah it's likely that this would be the norm now instead of the fundamentalist code that is currently being imposed, and it would be much more difficult to radicalize them.

As Iran's radical government became more powerful they posed a threat to the reign of Saddam Hussein next door in Iraq.  Saddam's government was secular, as opposed to Iran's theocracy.  Religious elements in Iran were trying to inspire their fellow Shias in Iraq to overthrow Saddam.  A war ensued, and the US armed Saddam in order to limit Iran's power in the region.  But while Saddam was seen as an ally at the time, he eventually became more of a threat as he pursued WMD and nukes and eventually invaded his neighbors in Kuwait and had troops amassed along the border with Saudi Arabia prior to Desert Storm.

Beirut barracks bombing
During the Reagan administration in 1983 terrorists blew up buildings being used as barracks by US and French forces in Beirut, Lebanon.  Nearly 300 US and French soldiers died in that attack.  Reagan's focus was on winning the cold war against the Soviet Union, and he didn't seem to know how to prevent or respond to the threat from religious radicals.  His successor George H. W. Bush didn't seem to fare any better as Al Queda emerged following Desert Storm in response to US military presence in Saudi Arabia.


Kenyan embassy bombing
Under Clinton US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were bombed by Al Queda in 1998.  Clinton's response was minimal, launching a missile attack against a pharmaceutical facility in Sudan that was never conclusively linked to Al Queda .  He seemed more focused on fighting Serbian leader Slobodan Milošević (who posed no threat to US national security) than Bin Laden, and when Saddam Hussein refused access to UNSCOM inspectors in 1998 Clinton passed up an opportunity to go to the UN and put a coalition together to deal with the situation as his predeccesor had, and again resorted to dropping a few bombs.  This was the best time to act on this as the international community had the will at that time to hold Saddam accountable because of his defiance of UNSCOM.  Instead, the US drifted into a policy of containment, the same policy more or less that was pursued with Al Queda.

Bush being informed of the attack on 9/11
When George W. Bush took office in 2001 there was an excellent opportunity to abandon the containment policy with both Saddam and Bin Laden, but Bush's focus during the campaign and during the first months of his presidency was on education.  He wanted to be known as "the edcuation president", and in fact was sitting in a classroom on 9/11 promoting his education program when the attacks occurred.  It wasn't until after the attacks that his focus shifted toward national security and the war on terror.  He responded to 9/11 by invading Afghanistan to attack Al Queda and remove the Taliban who were harboring them.  He then proceeded to pursue a second war in Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein and install a democratic government which would be friendlier toward the US and its allies, but that spread US forces too thin and stalled the progress in Afghanistan.  The Iraq war itself went well, but the post-war phase was a disaster.  What was expected to take less than half a year ended up taking eight years and cost over 4,000 troops and upwards of $1 trillion, and killed countless Iraqi citizens as a war of insurgency dragged on, a war that seemed to catch the Bush administration completely off guard.  Saddam was a Sunni Muslim and a Bathist, so as a result Sunnis and Bathists were alienated by how the Coalition Provisional Authority set up the new government and military.  That alienation continued into the Obama administtion.

Which brings us to today.  The rapid advancement of ISIS into Iraq seems to have caught Obama sleeping, and he is just now talking with advisors about how to respond where he should have been on top of things weeks or even months ago with a plan in place to prevent the current crisis.  Since coalition forces pulled out of Iraq at the end of 2011 Sunnis have been marginalized by the government of Maliki, who is a Shia.  The advancements that have been made by ISIS in Iraq were due more to the lack of support for the Iraqi government by Sunnis than by the prowess of ISIS' forces.  There were many reports of military leaders instructing their men to abandon their posts.  Loyal forces don't do that.  As a result it would appear that Iraq is headed for a full blown civil war.    

What is the solution?  I could be wrong, but at this point I think it's too late to bring the country back together under the current government.  Even if Maliki doesn't win a third term the die is cast.  Either the UN oversees a breakup into three seperate countries for the Sunnis, Kurds, and Shias, or a civil war follows that could draw in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and God knows who else.  The time to prevent the current dilemma has come and gone, and both Republican and Democrat presidents share the blame.  For the sake of the Iraqi people and the international community, I hope our leaders can handle the situation today better than they have in the past.




 

  

   


23 comments:

  1. this JUST IN Emergency call from tony https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ks4bD2RL3dM must hear less than 1 minute

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    1. Is it really necessary to sink to Tony's level? I think not.

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  2. Thank you for the history lesson Sam. Today easyrider started a topic about how this seems to be all planned and then posted a pic of a local market as if that speaks for the whole country. These conspiracy nuts think all this is being blown up by the MSM and if anyone of them actually knew anything about the history of Iraq none of this would seem "staged". But as we know facts and reality don't matter to crazies like easyrider and LGD. This needs to be posted on all dinar sets to give these delusional dinar dreamers the history. Again Sam thanks for the lesson and research. Keep it up.

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  3. I'm one of those conspiracy nuts and over 6 years have spent 1000s of hours studying it. As you know I'm the anti thesis of a RV but absolutely believe that mossad and the Zionists have had a hand in making the state of Israel with Jewish labor. since I'm in a middle of a move right now I don't have time to give you links but if you don't believe it was a plan to destroy Iraq proper and make it less threatening to Israel and the Zionist pigs who had made it you are just as dense and dumb as these idiots who believe Tony Turd the convicted indicted conman THINK ABOUT THAT and PEACE MIKE

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    1. Lol, what does your conspiracy have to do with the conspiracy that easyrider is talking about on DV. I'm talking about what's currently happening in Iraq with the ISIS. easy is saying that it's not as bad as they are making it out to be and how it's strange timing before the elections. Just typical RV dreamers not believing anything that's ruining their dream if becoming rich.

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  4. I'm not so sure a 3 way partition of Iraq will solve anything, though that might be the outcome. The Kurds might be content with that, as they have wanted their own country for a long time, but the Shia and Sunni factions do not seem to be pushing for their own country as much as to take over Iraq and force their brand of Islam on its people. The ISIL is certainly instituting their own version of extreme Sharia law on the cities they are taking over (if take over is the proper term, destroying might be more apt). Its certainly a mess, no argument there.

    As for this being a Zionist conspiracy to break up Iraq, that makes even less sense to me. A multi-sectarian, even semi-democractic, Iraq is less of a danger to Israel than smaller states with a more homogenous and hence easily swayed population. Smaller single sect states might be willing to carry out actions a larger multi-sect state would never be able to agree on.

    Back in dinarland the faithful seem to be divided into those that think the RV is proceeding as planned and all this is just a ploy by al-Maliki to try and hold into power, and those that think its real and the RV will now be put off for several years. These recent events will if anything make it even less likely that the believes will come to understand that their RV was a myth in the first place as now they have an excuse for why it didn't happen.

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    1. JRG, I must agree with you on everything. But even more so agree that the conspiracy about the Zionist is much more NESARA / White Hat like nonsense. First of all, people who buy into this stuff recognize that this is supposed to be such a "secret plan" by Zionists yet you don't have to dig much to find the info on the web. Since that is the case then why hasn't the PTB scrubbed those sites, shut them down, etc... much like the "secret RV"? It is a bunch of gibberish. FACT is that Sunni & Shia have been bucking for control for an extremely long time and the dam has finally broken. Now if anyone has not seen this coming especially since the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the withdrawal of troops in 2011 then they are the buffoons. One can study, research for 1 million hours but it doesn't make the conspiracy truthful.

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  5. US already stated they are sending in troops supposedly about 275 for now plus most likely drones as well. So yes Sam the US and Iran to boot are getting involved, US because they cannot let the US Embassy fall to these scumbag ISIS but also because it's going to really get ramped up with Syria, Iran and Saudi so this is just the beginning ALL OVER AGAIN but for the asinine dinarians just kiss the currency you own goodbye if you don't attempt to salvage what you have now by exchanging it with whatever dealer will accept it. I see them bailing soon and leaving y'all dry!!!

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  6. We can look back and see how consequential Jimmy Carter's decision not to back the Pahlavi regime was. That disastrous decision created the era of free agency when it comes to foreign relations. Prior to that decision, you were either an ally of the US or an ally of the Soviet Union and you received the full support and backing of those nations.. There was no middle ground. Carter essentially told our allied gov'ts they can't count on us to support them in internal matters. Many allies, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan suddenly became very nervous about their own internal opposition and conflicts and began to aggressively suppress and oppress dissenters. The Soviets took advantage of this by supporting dissenters with money and weapons and propaganda. This sowed the seeds of extremism and desperation that manifests today as terrorism. Terrorism may have existed prior to Jimmy Carter becoming President. But it became far more influential and significant thanks to the feckless and spineless decision of Jimmy Carter not to support the Shah of Iran.

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  7. Sam,

    I agree with your analysis, just not your conclusions. The formation of a seperate, radical Sunni state in the ME is in noone's interests (unless you believe in random beheadings and serious subjugation of women). The Kurds will continue to operate as they have. If the regional powers (Iran and Saudi) accept a tri state solution for Iraq, they are simply buying time for their demise to radicalism. Leaving a state in place for a radicalized army to operate out of will invite more disasters ala 9/11 - the radical elements must have pressure on them - the kind that leaves their body parts in a pool of their own blood. There is NO OTHER EFFECTIVE WAY to deal with these people. They will die all day to kill one foe - so sending them to Allah is the only way to stop them.

    Wish it were different, but it is not. In my opinion...

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    1. CC - I guess I should elaborate a bit. I don't believe for a minute that diplomats or advisors will accomplish much. What I envision is a UN coalition similar to what was carried out in the Balkans by UN and NATO forces after the war in Serbia. How they divide up Iraq is anybody's guess, but I don't believe Iraq is capable of maintaining an inclusive government under the current system. There's too much hatred and sectarianism for it to work. People tend to demonize Maliki and make him out to be a dictator and madman, but the fact is he was elected according to their system largely because he represented the views of those who supported him just as Milosevic did in Serbia. If he is replaced under their current system his successor will likely be no more inclusive or generous in the power sharing. Democracy is only as good as the people it serves.

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  8. The buyback price for dinar has dropped again. On Treasury Vault the price is only $775 for 1 million dinar. A few days ago it was $800. A couple years ago it was as high as $840. This certainly is a sign that dealers are not very interested in buying dinar. Interestingly, their sell price for dinar hasn't changed yet. I suspect they are trying to slowly reduce their inventories before the bottom falls out of the market and they're stuck with a bunch of dinar that, inevitably, will continue to fall in value or be replace. They'll continue to pump up the dinar until their stocks get low and then quietly get out of the dinar business altogether.

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  9. Dinar Inc is paying less @ $750/ million for buy back of uncirculated IQD.

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  10. The buy back rates have fallen as predicted but little else has changed, never underestimate the power of STUPIDITY!

    Just a couple of days ago I was predicting a rush to sell and telling people to watch E-Bay as an indicator of the snowballing effects as the delusional finally came to their senses due to the undeniable events in Iraq, well I COULD NOT HAVE BEEN MORE WRONG! It would seem that if anything sales have actually increased slightly! The gurus are telling everyone that the war is being staged by Maliki and that the fighting is over who will control the "RV" that is certain to occur now that things are happening, it's being said that the only way to end the war is by "RVing" to make everyone wealthy -after all rich people don't fight in wars! The sickening thing is people are believing it! While a few are waking up and selling others are saying now is the time and I even read one saying he hoped the Dinar fell in value before it "RVed" so that he could buy more, others agreed and while I'm sure some of these are shills posted by pumpers/sellers others are undoubtedly sincere.


    I am amazed, appalled and just plain disappointed that people can be even stupider than I ever imagined. Until now it was just beyond my comprehension that civil war breaking out in Iraq could not only fail to bring about the collapse of this scam but could in many cases actually lead to an increase in sales which seems to be happening, at least in some instances.

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    1. Well, I don't feel appalled, amazed nor disappointed because an idiot is and idiot is an idiot. You can't save them, teach them wisdom, or even get them to watch a 5 second clip of reality because they refuse. That being said I post the rate drops as a mockery of their stupidity. You can only feel sorry for someone for so long until you realize that it's pointless and they deserve every bit of it. It is what it is and quite frankly I don't care whether they sink or swim. In fact I hope they drown to the depths of the abyss because you reap what you sow. They are hopelessly lost and that's where they are comfortable so be it.

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  11. There was an article posted on DV yesterday... the Kurds announced they may drop the dinar and either go to the dollar or print their own currency.
    Some actually thought it was a good thing and would force an RV if the dinar.
    Never underestimate the absolute ignorance of these people.

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    1. LMAO!!!

      That's actually great news for the dinarians because it indicates that the Kurds are stepping out of the "ELITE" circle which means that the "secret society of dinarians" is really for the God selected fools that the bible claimed. Watch, that will be the next story line that god is weeding out those he intends not to become millionaires thereby re-inforcing the fabrication that the bible says that all wealth goes to christians only.

      Sorry but I just can't stop laughing because these anal tissues don't realize how wealthy they would be if they went to Hollywood and wrote movie scripts. Steven Spielberg and the like just might have some serious competition. LOL!!!

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  12. As a silent “stalker “ on this site for about two years, let me first tell you how much I appreciate all the work you do Sam, as well as your well informed readers (well, you know the ones I mean). I was peer pressured into the dinar, never really believing the hype, but for some dumb reason did it anyway. When all my friends were so high on the dinar, it was always reassuring to read that it wasn’t me that was off base.

    All that to say, that last week I finally took the step to call xchange of America and sell my dinar, they only buy uncirculated bills purchased from dinartrade. I had driven by their “store” in Ft. Myers Florida on several occasions, no one there, no signage, nothing on the marquee of the shopping center. XOA wanted me to mail the dinar, but I wanted to see how they pulled off having this office. It took a week, but a guy met me at the office. He said he only works occasionally for XOA and he is the only one there and he is not doing it anymore. HE was the one who brought to my attention the siege on the bank in Iraq. He was more than open that he had not invested in the dinar. XOA overnighted my money (it had to come out of “headquarters”) and the check cleared. I am SO glad to get any of my money back.
    DWM, you are correct, my friends continue to buy more dinar every week, the news has not fazed them one bit.

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    1. Thanks bak. Glad to hear you got some of your money back, and sorry to hear about your friend. I accepted long ago the fact that many people will never listen, so I have to be content with the few who do. The important thing is that I did what I could. My conscience wouldn't allow me any other choice.

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  13. When all the chaos came about in Iraq this past week I thought FINALLY!! This is going to come to an end. I saw it as a "way out" for the pumpers and holders both. But no!! Just as others have stated the scenario in Iraq has been used to pump even more! And the dinar holders truly believe the news out of Iraq is hyped and part of the conspiracy!
    Oh how I rue the day I ever came to know and care about someone so deeply involved in this. I also just shake my head and think why in the world is anything to do with a dinar RV even on the landscape of my life?? Waaaayyy too weird for this regular gal....

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  14. Great article Sam. That photo is a stark reminder of just how far some cultures can regress when the crazies take over. As for the other "RV" crazies, it's not really a surprise they try and paint everything as "good news" to the point of it being a genuine serious mental health issue. If the black plague returned and halved Iraq's population killing 15m people in a week, it'll be "good news because it's not overcrowded for the RV" or "reptilian shapeshifting Illuminati agents did it". That's the underlying 'shot to pieces' psychopathic mentality of these people running the scam and the disassociative disorder world-view of many of their cult-like followers.

    Best advice I can give to anyone is : remain in balance when debunking stupid sh*t on the net (on pretty much any topic). You can only help those who help themselves (or want to be helped). "You can't fix stupid" or force common sense, and never will be able to protect all scam victims from their own stupidity - on any scam (look at the CMKX bunch some of whom will spend the rest of their life waiting for their "$3.5tn compensation" for their imaginary "fields of diamonds..."), so don't beat yourselves up about it. It's a sad truth, but if some people really are determined to learn life lessons only via the hard way, that is really their choice and their self-inflicted greater anguish will simply be a better (and more humbling) teacher - for them - in the long-run. It is still best to focus on those who know something isn't right, but don't know exactly why, and simply ignore those completely "away with the fairies & unicorns".

    As for the conspiracy addictions, it's also probably helpful to see the psychology behind them - Once you "buy into" a conspiracy (and paranoia & greed are the two primary drivers behind most of them), it essentially becomes your "new reality", and the real world is "hidden" by the "illusion". Every reference from that point onwards then becomes not related to a boundary of the real world, but rather the boundaries of the internalized conspiracy. This is why "facts don't matter" to some - reality based facts literally don't matter if your have internally divorced yourself from reality and are living a daily "inner world fantasy".

    It is stunning to see how many people in the 21st Century are willing to loose their ties with reality, but much of that is a combination of desperation & looking for an "escape" from daily life - the same reason why people take hard drugs knowing in advance on an intellectual level that it'll damage their health but doing it anyway because they can't deal with reality and do it as a coping mechanism. Everyone experiences some mild degree of disassociation when they daydream, but what turns it into a mental health issue is when you start living a daydream / "wouldn't it be nice if" personal fantasy as 'real' on an almost permanent basis, year after year, and a very large number of the more obsessive "RV investors" are doing just that. They cling to it as if their life depends on it because for some, their mental health does depend on it and it literally is a cry for help.

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  15. When the news in Iraq first broke, my "friend" said "well that's it, my RV is finished" and I thought Yes! Even he, a totally die-hard Dinarian has come to his senses!
    But almost immediately the phone calls and texts and tweets heated up. And then the "emergency" conference calls. His initial panic and anxiety were soon assuaged with the knowledge of the "truth"...relief in what's "really going on"
    Yes, Brian you have assessed the situation perfectly. It is a serious mental health crisis. Withdrawal from reality to fantasy has become more and more intense Very disturbing to watch

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  16. I can't wait till this thing happens and everyone here who is a such a downer will eat all your words z this thing is going to revalue at some point and you'll wish you had dinar and dong when it does . Don't you guys have a life? All you got better to do, your soul purpose in life is to be a nay sayer... What a waste

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