Today marks the second anniversary of the launching of this blog. On Sept. 23, 2011 I wrote my first post "RV Reality Check". As I read through that post today I see that everything I said then has held up. Iraq is still a mess. Bombs are still going off, their leaders are still at odds, and they still can't get a handle on the corruption. Shabibi is gone, Talibani is either dead or disabled. There's chaos next door in Syria, and Iran is still a disruptive force. The dinar has only increased 1/3 of 1%, despite considerable GDP growth which the gurus claimed would produce an increase in the value of the dinar. A year ago four men were indicted for dinar fraud, three of whom I have written about and included in the blog's banner. One of those four has pled guilty, and the others are awaiting trial. And yet the pumpers are still pumping and the scammers are still scamming.
As I look back on that first post I have mixed feelings. On the one hand I'm comforted by the fact that events have vindicated me somewhat, but on the other hand I'm embarrassed by my ignorance at the time. I was under the impression that they were reducing the money supply and thought it was possible to see the dinar increase substantially over time. A few months later I interviewed John Jagerson and discovered that the largest revaluation in history was barely enough to cover exchange fees for dinar investors. Currencies just don't increase that much. And in researching for my posts I eventually learned more about the importance of exchange rate stability, the history of redenominations, and the nature of managed floats or de facto pegs. Some of my readers obviously know more than I do about this stuff and have helped me considerably in getting my education. Thanks guys.
My strength isn't in economics. It's not in investing either, especially currency investing. My strength is in writing and researching. I have put my skills to work over the past two years to expose fraud and douchebaggery whenever and wherever I saw the need. I've received numerous emails thanking me for helping people to see through the lies and fraud. I can't tell you how rewarding that is. I was able to take my (self-imposed) misfortune and make something positive out of it. At the same time I have apparently somehow given some people the impression that I'm an expert on currencies and investing which I am not. People ask me about this currency or that, whether they should invest in gold or silver, where I think the world's economy is going .... etc. How should I know? LOL!!! I'm just a guru-buster. Talk to a professional. That's the biggest problem here. People want to get advice from anonymous hacks on the internet rather than establish a relationship with a qualified professional. If you wouldn't get medical advice that way why do you think you should get financial advice that way?
And now I look to the third year of this blog. I sincerely hope that I'm not still writing about this nonsense a year from now, but I'm not too optimistic. At the rate things are moving in Iraq it could be years before their currency reform is enacted, if ever. I took a break late last year and only intended to post when events warrant, but decided about six months ago that my input was still needed since my search engine ranking was slipping and people weren't getting the information they needed. How long I will remain active I can't say. There are other excellent sites that are holding the gurus accountable. MrIQD is one. Marcus Curtis' blog Iraq Currency Watch is another. One of our readers started one called Adam Montana - Not So Real RV Intel that I really enjoy. And of course John Jagerson's Learning Markets thread on the dinar scam is also great reading. Events in my life might leave me no choice eventually but to move on. Whenever and however that occurs I want to thank everybody now for their support. It has been an incredible experience to say the least. Cheers.