Tuesday, June 18, 2013

John Jagerson Videos

It's been awhile since I talked about these, but it's always a good idea I think to go back to basics from time to time. Every time I watch these videos I get something new out of them. I only wish that I'd grasped what John was saying when I first watched them.






Now I'd like to offer a few observations.  John created these videos four years ago, and since then he has been subjected to name calling, threats, ridicule ... etc.  He's been accused of everything from reverse pumping to hypocritically owning dinar while he's bashing the dinar investment.  And yet since 2009 the IQD's official value has only increased about a third of 1%.  Meanwhile according to the financial report on the CBI website, the amount of currency in circulation has gone from 21 trillion to 31 trillion dinar and the M2 has gone from 45 trillion to 75 trillion dinar.  Also during this time banks have quit handling the dinar, the CBI has announced their "delete the zeros" currency reform plan which is a redenomination (lop), cease & desist orders have been issued on at least four dinar dealers in Colorado, Illinois, and Arkansas, and five men have been indicted (two of whom have now plead guilty) for dinar fraud and other related crimes. 

John has pretty much been vindicated at every turn, unlike the gurus.  That's because he's a professional and he knows what he's talking about, unlike the gurus.  And he offers his real name and his credentials, unlike the gurus.

In these videos he makes several valid points.  He starts off by addressing the difference between real investing principles and common denominators in all scams.

1. Fraud, misleading information, and no disclosure of risk
   a. Dinar dealers are marketing an investment without proper registration (thus the cease & desist orders above) which would require equal emphasis on risk and potential returns.  How often do you hear dealers or gurus honestly discussing the history of redenominations and the obvious potential of a redenomiation with the dinar?  How often do they discuss the potential for civil war or a coup or a failed state scenario?  No, it's usually just "we're almost there ... everything's in place ... looking good!"
   b. The German deutschmark didn't revalue or appreciate after WWII.  It replaced the previous currency the reichsmark in a redenomination.  The Kuwaiti dinar didn't revalue or appreciate after the first Gulf War.  It was reinstated as the official currency at the same pre-war valuation and has since been replaced with a different currency on two occasions.  How many times have we heard about Germany and Kuwait as justification for buying dinar?  "Millionaires were made overnight with the Kuwaiti dinar!!!"  Really?  Prove it.  Give me one name.  Just one! 
   c. The $3+ value of the dinar before the first Gulf War was set by Saddam Hussein, and it wasn't the result of market forces.  Even prior to Saddam's reign the dinar's value wasn't the result of market forces but was established by policy.  As John states it's possible to establish a high value for your currency but it's very expensive to do so, and the trend toward globalization since the pre-Saddam era has caused most countries to prefer a lower value which helps them with developing exports and paying debt obligations.

2. Risks
   a. Illiquidity - You can't spend the dinar outside of Iraq.  Banks are no longer handling it so your only options for exchanging it (outside of flying to Iraq or Jordan) are dinar dealers and public trading sites like Ebay or Craigslist.  If Iraq redenominates like they say they will, those trading sites will no longer be an option and the dinar investors will be at the mercy of the dealers.  If the dealers disappear the investors are screwed with a capital S.  And as John mentioned the spread has been around 20%, so if you are able to exchange for the new dinar or USD you have to add the new spread to the old spread to determine your total cost. 
   b. Currencies aren't stocks.  The idea that the dinar's value will increase as Iraq's economy grows is based on the flawed view that currencies behave like stocks.  They don't.  People who make money speculating on currency do so with electronic currency on Forex and profit off of the slight fluctuations with high volume, leveraged purchases.  They don't make money by buying physical notes and waiting for them to increase in value by more than 20% because currencies rarely do that.  In fact the largest revaluation in history was less than 40%.  If the dinar increases in value by 27% as it did from 2006-2009 you'd be lucky to make any profit at all going through a dealer.  And since the CBI's policy is a stable exchange rate the likelihood of even a 27% RV seems fairly remote.  The fact is currencies that have deprecitated due to hyperinflation either retain their lower value post-hyperinflation or they redenominate. They never appreciate back to their former value. It would destroy the economy.
   c. Inflation - Developing economies like Iraq tend to have problems with inflation.  While the effort to bring inflation down is responsible for the only increase to the dinar's value since 2006, a resurgance of inflation could send the dinar's value into a downward spiral.  I've heard dinar investors say things like "how much lower could the dinar's value go?  It's already a tenth of a penny."  Well look at Turkey's old lira.  Prior to redenomination it was worth less than that.  A lot less.  In fact it would have taken almost 1500 lira to buy one Iraqi dinar.   When Zimbabwe redenominated they removed twelve zeros from their currency. It would have taken over 250 billion Zimbabwean dollars to buy one IQD.  So yes, the dinar could go quite a bit lower in value.  As of now inflation is relatively low, around 2%.  But as John points out it wouldn't take much in an unstable country like Iraq to trigger another round of hyperinflation, and if that occurs they won't be able to do much to control it. 


John has stated that he made these videos because he saw so many people being misled about the potential for the dinar's value.  He witnessed countless military personnel returning from Iraq and Afghanistan who had purchased dinar, believing that it had the potential to make them millions.  Since he wrote the article on the dinar scam and published these videos literally thousands have been spared the financial and emotional devestation that comes with being defrauded.  One day the dinar world will have to acknowledge John's foresight and superior assessment of the dinar "investment", but I'll gladly do so now.  Kudos, JJ.  




12 comments:

  1. Excellent post Sam.

    All anyone has to do is listen to an actual proffesional in currency to see that the dinar is hype and a "RV" is made up fantasy. Yet the delusioned choose to listen to Okie instead or buy into some "powers that be" conspiracy ignorance. John Jagerson knows more about how currencies than every dreamer on DV combined yet they still think that they know better. It's all about when the NWO is going to have a "global reset" of currencies. Its a total joke.

    This is one of your best post Sam and I appreciate your efforts to expose the Dinar con for what it is.

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  2. Good stuff, Sam.

    I have sympathy for the new suckers that this scam ropes in every year. But what really amazes me is the fervor and firm belief of an impending RV that so many in the dinar world still hold. After all these years and all these ridiculous assertions, predictions, and prognostications you would think some doubt would creep into their minds. The person that got me into this continues to be as convinced as ever that the RV is still coming. To characterize it as a religion is not far fetched. There seems to be no amount of information or logic that dissuades them. The foundation is nothing but a faith and belief that it is going to happen. Perhaps that why douchebags like Frank Villa and Okie have not been bashful about using their Christian faith to continuet o pump this scam. Both are eager to push the idea of "faith" to exploit their flock. It's shameful. Kudos to John Jagerson for trying to put logic and common sense on the table.

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  3. Sam, where did you dig up that smug jerk in those two videos? Wow, clearly he has not heard that Shabs is going to reintricate the Dinar to accomodatively supply the demand curve. Obviously the Luminati is behind the delay in the RV. But all my sources say that it is ready to go at the banks. In fact, my local credit union had a special training meeting about it for all their tellers just this afternoon. I will be laughing all the way to the bank!

    Seriously though, thanks for the nice comments. Keep up the good fight.

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    1. What? No flashing screens?

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    2. John, now that was classic. Thanks for being honest about what investing in currency, pink sheets, and Forex entails and what people should be looking out for. Logical thought, evidence, and a simple Google search always tends to provides a person with a leg up when someone tries to make false claims. I thank you! Any opinions on this? Not that you need to, you've already done enough to save the boomers. http://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?sid=6&aid=741&dir=2013/June/Monday17

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  4. Isn’t it amazing how all these gurus who have been calling for a RV every week for years now… suddenly they all claim they knew there was no way RV would happen before release from chapter VII.

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    1. True. All they really want is the headline. They need people to believe the RV is "imminent". They need people to think they are ALMOST too late. That's what motivates people to buy dinar now. They don't want them taking the time to research or check it out. They don't want them waiting. If they wait, they won't buy. They need to create a sense of urgency. The only way to do that is to continually talk about how "close" the RV is.

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  5. I wish Iraq would get out of chapter VII so the economically challenged can start yapping about some other irrevant roadblock standing in the way of the made up fantasy "RV".

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    1. You got your wish! It will be funny to watch the clowns spin this when the RV doesn't occur. A couple of them have acted outraged that more news organizations didn't report the UN vote. They didn't report it because it is a meaningless, insignificant event in the world. It's not going to save the world or save Iraq. Starbucks raising the price for a cup of coffee will have a greater impact on the world economy than this UN vote. Only idiots that think the world revolves them would act outraged at something like that. The dinar scam is perpetuated by people with massive egos playing up the greed of the ignorant.

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    2. Take that networth!! If Adam Montana says it, you can take it to the bank...sort of



      6-29-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana 2 days after the UN voted to remove Iraq from Chapter 7 and we are seeing nothing but GOOD reports out of Iraq. Fingers crossed my friends, we might be at the finish line!



      6-28-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [Will there be a need to bring certain type of documents to the bank?] the only "documents" that you need to take into the bank to cash in is the legitimate dinars. That's it. No bill of sale, no receipt, nothing. Well, you'll probably need ID. Or an attorney that's representing you if you happen to be doing things a little different... but again, that's not what most people will be doing. MOST people will simply need to have authentic notes, cash them in, pay your taxes, and be glad you had the opportunity.

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    3. Yea. I may rue the day I ignored Montana. LOL!

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  6. DaveD wrote on April 4, 2012 at 2:09 PM: John. A question for you. If you go to E-bay and type in “dinar option”, there are 180 listings for people selling options for the dinar. How are dealers getting away with that? Doesn’t selling options require a securities license?

    jjagerson wrote on April 4, 2012 at 2:24 PM: Holy snot! I had never seen that. Wow - that is really tempting fate. Yes, except in very special circumstances (transfer of real estate and some personal property) selling an option on an asset must be done by a licensed broker/dealer or FCM or similar to sell or "write" options on a currency.

    However, you gotta admire their scam. There is no way they will ever be 'called out' on those options. Free money. Yikes.

    I doubt they will be getting away with that for long.

    Hmm. Well, here it is over a year later, and the "dinar options" on E-bay are still rampant. One would think that if the SEC had a problem with this, eBay would have by now had a conniption fit and set up an automatic ban of such auctions. Where are the all the amateur spies who regularly report policy infractions at eBay? There is a long list of forbidden items on E-bay that usually get taken down within an hour of listing, but these alleged tempters of fate can sell "options" with impunity? It makes no sense.

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