Since last summer I have become familiar with the views of a certain very informed dinar analyst who goes by the name of Highlander. She ran a dinar site for a while but has since changed her focus to research and commentary on the dinar. Recently she took the time to answer a few questions related to her experiences in this investment.
Sam: Thanks for taking the time to discuss the dinar with me for my readers. I first approached you about this a couple of months ago but you didn't seem too interested. What changed your mind?
HL: First off I want to thank you for this opportunity. My delayed decision had nothing to do with you or this site. I just feel that if I don't see something worth while sharing or talking about then there is no reason to do so. I will do research and digging and watching until something changes or comes to light that I didn't know or I don't see being presented to the people and then I will share via a conference call.
Sam: Could you give us some insight into who you are and what you do?
HL: I was born and raised in Arizona. I have traveled some and lived in a few different states and also lived in South Korea. I have since returned to my home state and currently I am self-employed with my own business. While I have attended college, I hold no formal degrees at the present time. I am just like many on this net. A very passionate person who just wants to know what is going on with our investment. I respect hard work and self motivation. I love talking to people and hearing their thoughts and opinions, especially if they can base them on research and provable documentation whether they agree with me or not.
Sam: How long have you been a dinar investor?
HL: I first entered this investment in March of 2010.
Sam: How long have you been a researcher?
HL: I very slowly entered the research arena. I started off with articles, but like many out there, I had a hard time at first understanding them. And then if you throw the rumors on top of that it seemed impossible to figure it out. After August of 2011 when Iraq did not get their chapter 7 release I really decided that it was time to know why. That is when I was blessed to be taken under the wing of some of the best researchers on the net and they started sharing documents with me. Once I started down that path I couldn't stop. I was amazed at the information that was truly available to us and I have tried to absorb anything I could get my hands on ever since.
Sam: Who were your influences in researching?
HL: My intial exposure to anyone trying to decipher the news and make it understandable was Enorste. When he moved over to currency chatter I followed and found Randy Koonce there who also was steadfast on articles and research. Then of course I went on to meet the likes of Scooter and Enoch8 which just opened the flood gates! But the one that influenced me the deepest was a gentleman that went by the handle Hiram601. This gentleman not only believed in education, research and hard work but he had spent decades studying the middle east, the culture, the religions, the people, the customs, the list goes on and on. He spent hundreds of hours teaching me to try and not perceive Iraq through western eyes and thoughts but to try and understand through their eyes. Unfortunately he was taken from the dinar community too soon. Tough financial times hit, like it has for most, and there wasn't any money to keep his home or to acquire his blood pressure medicine. With some of the research missing and not having enough knowledge in the arsenal yet, decisions were made that I firmly believe would not have been had he known then what we know now. With the stress of what was going on in his life and the added stress that came from this investment he suffered from a brain aneurysm brought on by his high blood pressure and he passed on. After holding his hand and having to say good-bye to a man that had become like a brother to me I vowed that I was going to research everything I could get my hands on. I don't want to see another person make those choices with their life because they don't have the information that is available out there. That event broke my heart and put a burning passion in me to present the research so people could make educated decisions and not ones based on hopium.
Sam: Unfortunately I've heard far too many similar stories to that one. Thanks for sharing that as it really demonstrates the seriousness of the intel nonsense we're constantly subjected to.
HL: Yes Sam there are far too many people who have suffered similar fates as Hiram601. I have met people who lost their jobs, homes, cars, filed bankruptcy and have nothing left and don't even know where the money is going to come from for groceries next week but they still hold the dinar they purchased. The danger of not looking at all the factual evidence, documents, and history of an event like this is that life altering decisions can be made on bad information or hopium. I truly believe it is important for people to think of this as an investment and not a lottery ticket. If they can do that, it will help ground their thoughts and emotions and open their hearts and minds to all possible outcomes and allow them to properly prepare and make better decisions that affect their lives today.
Sam: Thanks for taking the time to discuss the dinar with me for my readers. I first approached you about this a couple of months ago but you didn't seem too interested. What changed your mind?
HL: First off I want to thank you for this opportunity. My delayed decision had nothing to do with you or this site. I just feel that if I don't see something worth while sharing or talking about then there is no reason to do so. I will do research and digging and watching until something changes or comes to light that I didn't know or I don't see being presented to the people and then I will share via a conference call.
Sam: Could you give us some insight into who you are and what you do?
HL: I was born and raised in Arizona. I have traveled some and lived in a few different states and also lived in South Korea. I have since returned to my home state and currently I am self-employed with my own business. While I have attended college, I hold no formal degrees at the present time. I am just like many on this net. A very passionate person who just wants to know what is going on with our investment. I respect hard work and self motivation. I love talking to people and hearing their thoughts and opinions, especially if they can base them on research and provable documentation whether they agree with me or not.
Sam: How long have you been a dinar investor?
HL: I first entered this investment in March of 2010.
Sam: How long have you been a researcher?
HL: I very slowly entered the research arena. I started off with articles, but like many out there, I had a hard time at first understanding them. And then if you throw the rumors on top of that it seemed impossible to figure it out. After August of 2011 when Iraq did not get their chapter 7 release I really decided that it was time to know why. That is when I was blessed to be taken under the wing of some of the best researchers on the net and they started sharing documents with me. Once I started down that path I couldn't stop. I was amazed at the information that was truly available to us and I have tried to absorb anything I could get my hands on ever since.
Sam: Who were your influences in researching?
HL: My intial exposure to anyone trying to decipher the news and make it understandable was Enorste. When he moved over to currency chatter I followed and found Randy Koonce there who also was steadfast on articles and research. Then of course I went on to meet the likes of Scooter and Enoch8 which just opened the flood gates! But the one that influenced me the deepest was a gentleman that went by the handle Hiram601. This gentleman not only believed in education, research and hard work but he had spent decades studying the middle east, the culture, the religions, the people, the customs, the list goes on and on. He spent hundreds of hours teaching me to try and not perceive Iraq through western eyes and thoughts but to try and understand through their eyes. Unfortunately he was taken from the dinar community too soon. Tough financial times hit, like it has for most, and there wasn't any money to keep his home or to acquire his blood pressure medicine. With some of the research missing and not having enough knowledge in the arsenal yet, decisions were made that I firmly believe would not have been had he known then what we know now. With the stress of what was going on in his life and the added stress that came from this investment he suffered from a brain aneurysm brought on by his high blood pressure and he passed on. After holding his hand and having to say good-bye to a man that had become like a brother to me I vowed that I was going to research everything I could get my hands on. I don't want to see another person make those choices with their life because they don't have the information that is available out there. That event broke my heart and put a burning passion in me to present the research so people could make educated decisions and not ones based on hopium.
Sam: Unfortunately I've heard far too many similar stories to that one. Thanks for sharing that as it really demonstrates the seriousness of the intel nonsense we're constantly subjected to.
HL: Yes Sam there are far too many people who have suffered similar fates as Hiram601. I have met people who lost their jobs, homes, cars, filed bankruptcy and have nothing left and don't even know where the money is going to come from for groceries next week but they still hold the dinar they purchased. The danger of not looking at all the factual evidence, documents, and history of an event like this is that life altering decisions can be made on bad information or hopium. I truly believe it is important for people to think of this as an investment and not a lottery ticket. If they can do that, it will help ground their thoughts and emotions and open their hearts and minds to all possible outcomes and allow them to properly prepare and make better decisions that affect their lives today.
Sam: How have your views on the RV changed since you started researching?
HL: Oh boy have they ever changed! Before dedicating myself to researching I fell into the same roller coaster I still see happening on the net today. I would see the news and hear the "intel" and get all excited and then get let down when it didn't come true. I believed that surely someone had researched these so called "facts". Imagine my dismay when I started digging into the documents, Iraqi parliament minutes, council of ministers minutes, and even video logs from our government and the European government and more and discovered that what we were being told was not the truth at all! I so strongly believed that they would do what we were told that Kuwait did that I even stated on a conference call I wouldn't cash in for anything less than 3.22! Now I have a lot more background not only on Iraq's history but in economics and the study of currency reforms. I am more grounded and have removed myself from that very unpleasant roller coaster that is very harmful to people. I still believe that their is potential for the country of Iraq and their currency. What i am looking at now is how can they make that happen and if they can make that happen then what is realistic for us as investors to expect in return for our investment if anything.
Sam: You were telling me an interesting theory the other day on "The Plan" and how it might have been legit at one time but derailed by the Iraqis. Could you talk about that a little?
HL: The short version is this. I think it is possible that there may have been a lofty plan to go into the country of Iraq and benefit from the wealth of that country. After all the United States had done it multiple times throughout history. The problem they ran into in Iraq, if in fact such said plan did exist, was the history and strength of these people. Just like Britain held out against the on slaught from Hitler day after day, the iraqis have held out against decades, centuries and milleniums of on slaught from many nations. They know how to survive and they have a very rich history and are a very proud people. They had in their history many of the things we try to take credit for giving them. They already had a constitution from the 1930's. In fact they had a democratic government and open trade until the Baath party over threw that government which ultimately led to Saddam. In other words they are capable of deciding their destiny and I belive that is exactly what they are trying to accomplish despite any outside influences.
Sam: Tell us a little about the conference call series that you and a few others are doing now?
HL: Myself along with Enoch8, Proteus and Patriot (with occasional guest appearances from others) have endevored on a series of conference calls that we have entitled "The Iraqi Dinar: Fact or Fiction". The purpose of this series is to try and break down the different items that are the basics of Iraq and monetary reforms and help the people to feel like they have the power to research and understand their investment and not rely on someone else to tell them what is going on. Basically we are trying to lay the foundation that people need to have before they try to build their house. We seperated each item into a week of its own and we try to share as much as we can on the designated topic for the night and demonstrate how it may relate to Iraq and our investment. For example one of the upcoming topics is "Monetary Policy vs. Fiscal Policy. On that call we hope to be able to explain to people the difference between the two, who is in charge of each one, how each one affects the economy and money and how they relate to each other and ultimately try to understand why this is important to investors in the Iraqi Dinar. We are holding this series every Friday night and it is hosted by ReValue.US with a second feed in to the call being handled by the Call Squad. Recordings of the past weeks are available on either of those sites. And I want to take this opportunity to thank both Proteus and Patriot for being willing to tackle these tough issues in their forums along with Enoch8 too for all his time and willingness to share his research and knowledge as well!
Sam: Any advice for investors and potential investors?
HL: I think first and foremost would be the recommendation to people to arm yourself with knowledge of your own. Build your foundation properly and then make your decisions. Only you as an investor or potential investor knows how much risk you can afford without damaging your financial well being. If everyone would remember that this is an investment and not a guarantee they can make more sound financial decisions. Rember that you can lose on an investment just as easily as gain so please make sure that what you invest into this is something that you can do without if this does not turn into a money maker. Please don't fall into the everyday hype of it is going to RV today. That is harmful to yourself and your family. This is not the first monetary reform to have occurred in history and there are steps that have to occur before they can "pull the trigger" as some would say. Learn the steps and then you can sit back and relax and wait this ride out knowing that no matter what the outcome is you are prepared for it.
HL: Oh boy have they ever changed! Before dedicating myself to researching I fell into the same roller coaster I still see happening on the net today. I would see the news and hear the "intel" and get all excited and then get let down when it didn't come true. I believed that surely someone had researched these so called "facts". Imagine my dismay when I started digging into the documents, Iraqi parliament minutes, council of ministers minutes, and even video logs from our government and the European government and more and discovered that what we were being told was not the truth at all! I so strongly believed that they would do what we were told that Kuwait did that I even stated on a conference call I wouldn't cash in for anything less than 3.22! Now I have a lot more background not only on Iraq's history but in economics and the study of currency reforms. I am more grounded and have removed myself from that very unpleasant roller coaster that is very harmful to people. I still believe that their is potential for the country of Iraq and their currency. What i am looking at now is how can they make that happen and if they can make that happen then what is realistic for us as investors to expect in return for our investment if anything.
Sam: You were telling me an interesting theory the other day on "The Plan" and how it might have been legit at one time but derailed by the Iraqis. Could you talk about that a little?
HL: The short version is this. I think it is possible that there may have been a lofty plan to go into the country of Iraq and benefit from the wealth of that country. After all the United States had done it multiple times throughout history. The problem they ran into in Iraq, if in fact such said plan did exist, was the history and strength of these people. Just like Britain held out against the on slaught from Hitler day after day, the iraqis have held out against decades, centuries and milleniums of on slaught from many nations. They know how to survive and they have a very rich history and are a very proud people. They had in their history many of the things we try to take credit for giving them. They already had a constitution from the 1930's. In fact they had a democratic government and open trade until the Baath party over threw that government which ultimately led to Saddam. In other words they are capable of deciding their destiny and I belive that is exactly what they are trying to accomplish despite any outside influences.
Sam: Tell us a little about the conference call series that you and a few others are doing now?
HL: Myself along with Enoch8, Proteus and Patriot (with occasional guest appearances from others) have endevored on a series of conference calls that we have entitled "The Iraqi Dinar: Fact or Fiction". The purpose of this series is to try and break down the different items that are the basics of Iraq and monetary reforms and help the people to feel like they have the power to research and understand their investment and not rely on someone else to tell them what is going on. Basically we are trying to lay the foundation that people need to have before they try to build their house. We seperated each item into a week of its own and we try to share as much as we can on the designated topic for the night and demonstrate how it may relate to Iraq and our investment. For example one of the upcoming topics is "Monetary Policy vs. Fiscal Policy. On that call we hope to be able to explain to people the difference between the two, who is in charge of each one, how each one affects the economy and money and how they relate to each other and ultimately try to understand why this is important to investors in the Iraqi Dinar. We are holding this series every Friday night and it is hosted by ReValue.US with a second feed in to the call being handled by the Call Squad. Recordings of the past weeks are available on either of those sites. And I want to take this opportunity to thank both Proteus and Patriot for being willing to tackle these tough issues in their forums along with Enoch8 too for all his time and willingness to share his research and knowledge as well!
Sam: Any advice for investors and potential investors?
HL: I think first and foremost would be the recommendation to people to arm yourself with knowledge of your own. Build your foundation properly and then make your decisions. Only you as an investor or potential investor knows how much risk you can afford without damaging your financial well being. If everyone would remember that this is an investment and not a guarantee they can make more sound financial decisions. Rember that you can lose on an investment just as easily as gain so please make sure that what you invest into this is something that you can do without if this does not turn into a money maker. Please don't fall into the everyday hype of it is going to RV today. That is harmful to yourself and your family. This is not the first monetary reform to have occurred in history and there are steps that have to occur before they can "pull the trigger" as some would say. Learn the steps and then you can sit back and relax and wait this ride out knowing that no matter what the outcome is you are prepared for it.
Highlander recently made this statement.
ReplyDelete“A LOP down to 25.8 Billion USD is not enough money and that is one of the things Enoch8 and I both firmly believe.”
A lop doesn’t change the total value of the currency. They have $25.8 billion worth as of now. It will be the same after a lop. If that’s not enough how have they been surviving all this time.
Currency is necessary to support the economy. Iraq has practically no economy that relies on dinar.
Think about this. Iraq’s GDP is only about $100 billion a year. About $75 billion of that is from oil sales which are done in dollars. That means there is only about $25 billion of GDP that is dinar related. How much currency do you think they need to support $25 billion of dinar related economic activity?
Let's start with this statement. "They have $25.8 billion worth as of now." I don't agree with you do to the fact that they have 33 trillion dinar per Saleh statements in recent articles that equals 28.3 billion us dollars but you can't forget that on top of that they also have 40% of their local markets functioning on the US dollar directly. On top of that you have the government of Iraq 85% dependant on using the US Dollar for their transactions. The reason the dollar is being used so heavily is the fact that Iraq has not removed all their banking restrictions and moved themselves into article 8 with the IMF. Once they do those 2 things they will be able to use their own currency for importing and salaries and projects and the people will convert over to using the dinar in their own economy and both those events will increase the demand on their own currency. These are all things that occur in a free market economy which I also stated on the call that you took your quote from. Once they complete chapter 7 removal, IMF compliance with Article 8 acceptance and WTO ascension their free market economy can get a moving and with that will come a much greater demand on their currency and dedollarization which leads us to my statement 25.8 billion dinar is not enough money.
ReplyDeleteThanks for replying Highlander. You were the one who came up with the $28.5 billion figure. I wasn’t claiming that right or wrong. I was simply pointing out that whatever the value of the currency currently is… it will be the same after the lop. A lop does not alter the value of the currency. So to say they can’t lop because they wont have enough currency… simply make no sense.
ReplyDeleteNow… the actual numbers as last reported by the CBI are 28.2 trillion outside of banks and 3.8 trillion in bank vaults. That’s 32 Trillion dinar in circulation. At 1166 that’s $27.4 Billion in currency. After the lop it will be 32 Billion dinar worth the same $27.4 billion… minus whatever doesn’t get exchanged for whatever reasons.
You are correct that as the economy grows they will require a larger money supply. That’s basic economics. Your mistake is you are putting the cart before the horse. The money supply needs to grow as a result of the economy growing. They can’t just simply throw money out there and hope the economy follows. That is a classic cause of inflation which they have stated over and over and over is one of things they are determined to keep in check.
Iraq’s total money supply (m2) is about 72 Trillion.
Long ago I did a comparison of all the middle eastern countries and many other countries included. All the countries I checked, their money supply fell somewhere between 50% to 200% of their GDP.
Iraq’s 72 Trillion dinar, (soon to be 72 billion) are worth about $61.75 billion. Their GDP is about $100 billion. So they are a little on the low side of the scale at 62%. But since a huge portion of their economy is dollars from oil sales. 62% is plenty.
Thanks guys. You both made excellent points for discussion. In my discussions with sonny1 on his views of the .10 RV possibility, I think that daveD makes a great case for how a .10 RV could potentially be devastating to their economy. While it is certainly much more reasonable than 1.00, and it would make their total currency in circulation only 2.8 Trillion (3.2T including money in the vaults), this tells us they would be at about 2800-3200% of GDP. This certainly shows a .10 RV would still be a serious threat to create inflation.
ReplyDeleteI don't mind you seeing things differently, in fact I think it is a breath of fresh air to have open discussion. However I can't post a 10 week educational series here in the comments section. I have studied redenominations and liquidity issues and CBI interventions and I know for a fact that Iraq can do this and have it be revenue positive event as long as they can achieve their stated goals of a free market economy and not follow suit with their neighbors and turn themselves into a wealth state or rentier nation. Now please note that I said they could, I did not say they would. It is 2 different issues. I also did not say they could RV and still have 30 trillion dinar still outstanding after the event. I happen to believe that Iraq can land in the middle between a LOP and an RV. Or in other words a revenue positive redenomination but there is still a lot of work in front of them in order for this to happen which means time is on our side. The longer this takes then the more they can work on the necessary items that we need them to accomplish to achieve a revenue postive event.
ReplyDeleteJayP what I am talking about is not a .10 rate. It is a rate of .86 or higher and them using an exchange ratio on the notes to get from the old currency to the new currency.
ReplyDeleteIt is true that an .86 exchange rate with a removal of 3 zeroes would be revenue neutral and would leave Iraq in the exact same economic position they are in right now. But if they were to use a ratio on the notes of lets say, 100 of our dinars we hold today would equal 1 of the new dinars they issue, that would have the effect of us being able to cash out 1 million dinar for 8600.00 us dollars. If they used a ratio on the notes of 10 to 1 that would allow for a cash out of 86,000.00 dollars. The beauty of doing this type of ratio is they accomplish 2 birds with one stone. They get to remove the zeroes and they get to increase the overall buying power of their monetary base at a manageable level. This would only cause a small temporary increase in inflation which would then find an equilibrium. And it would not be a hyperinflation at all. They can handle 10 - 12% inflation temporarily in the markets and my best guess at the projected length of time of the inflation would be 6-12 months if they did a ratio on the notes. Also by using the ratio they get to bring themselves more in line with the dollar buying power which will simplify the dedollarization of the markets via the use of simple bank spreads just like the US Banks have on currencies.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2011/05/30/what-actually-causes-inflation/
The above article is a nice easy explanation of inflation for those who are interested. In this article this gentleman speaks to the fact that inflation can be caused by a growing economy and markets starting to boom. And when that growth is happening the money supply naturally needs to increase with the growth. Iraq is projected by the IMF stats to have 12% growth next year. That coupled along with Saleh stating that the CBI would not be issuing any more dinar this year into the markets and you find a nice window being created for them to be able to handle 1.5 - 3 trillion dinar with an .86 exchange rate to the dollar as their monetary base.
Interesting take Highlander, and great interview and story you have. I am sorry to learn about the loss of your friend, but I appreciate the gift of research he has left with you to share with all of us, as we all benefit from what you do. He obviously had a profound affect on your life.
Deleteas far as this hybrid sort of scenario on deleting 3 zeros, but offering a different exchange like the 100:1 or 10:1, this is something that I considered in the past as well after hearing you mention this some time back, and hoped that this would be something that the CBI would explore as a possibility, but I have seen little evidence of this being the case. Now the question is, if they were to delete 3 zeros, but then offer a 100 to 1 on the exchange of old for new, would they announce that sort of thing ahead of time, or would they keep that quiet due to the speculation that it would cause knowing that there can be a profit of 10x the investment to be made if that were to occur.
One thing that I can say, is that I have read Saleh specifically talk about deleting 3 zeros, and then they also specifically stated that the exchange would be 1000:1 old for new notes, so this does lead me to believe that it would likely not be a 100:1 or 10:1 exchange old for new, but it would certainly be a heck of a nice surprise considering the expectation based on what the CBI has stated is 1000:1 old for new in the exchange when they implement the deletion of 3 zeros.
They are going to do a ratio. They have probably stated it over a thousand times now. “Delete 3 zeros”. That means 1000 of the dinars you hold today will be equal to 1 new dinar. Why talk about 2 zeros or 1 zero when they never once said that, and have specifically said 3 zeros over and over?
ReplyDeleteOne of Iraq’s stated goals that you must have overlooked is their pledge to FULLY back their currency with reserves. They have made that pledge to the IMF and have stated that they plan to continue that into the future. It was contained in a number of the “Letter Of Intents” that accompanied the Stand By Arrangements.
Iraq has just over $60 billion in FX reserves. NOT coincidentally, they have just over $60 billion in currency. Your scenario of 2 zero lop would reduce their FX reserves from 100% to 10%. That’s far from the stated goal of fully backing the currency.
Yes Iraq has told their people what they intend to do over and over again. Why must we sit here and come up with new ways they can up their value. Their articles are meant for their citizens and not us. We are the ones who go online to Iraqi news sites and bring their articles over to forums. There is no conspiracy theory and no mass cover up going on. This whole dinar thing is a joke that has gone way too far. Only the desperate people are the ones that believe this crap amd it's sad cause I have a feeling many will fall into deep depression once Iraq finally rd's and they realize they didn't become millionaires. I also have a feeling Iraq will close its boarders when they issue a new currency and then you will totally lose out. They've done it before and There's even an article stating not their fault if people are speculating on their currency and it's their own fault. Mrfnhappy posted it on dv the other day. It's time for the circus to stop. One thing I do see is more amd more are waking up amd selling off which is good in my opinion. Im glad has this site because people need to put down the kool aid and open their minds to what's really going on. I feel sorry for all those that WASTED money on any services such as text services, books, and the VIP services. Do you really need a text saying its rv'd....most have smart phones and will find out online if such an event occurred. The only ones making money are forum owners selling such wasteful and pointless services. It amazes me how people flock week in and week out for Adams chats and they say the same thing every week. Same questions are asked over and over and the go rvers have their Pom poms out after its over. It's funny and very sad at times watching and reading the comments about their savior who has a fake name and hidden identity. What's wrong with people!!!!!!'
DeleteJayP thank you and I agree with you. The CBI has made a point of leading us to believe 1000:1. I believe that is all the CBI can do on their own. That is why Saleh has stated that the they need help from the government and that the wealth belongs to the government and not the CBI. So if the government does not change some laws, for example the old ancient law on Iraqs books that force them to have 100% backing of all currency issued, then we will be forced to accept the only thing the CBI can give which is a lop.
ReplyDeleteDaveD I have not overlooked their statements about the reserves. However I know why they make those statements and why the CBI continually ask the government for banking reform legislation. You are correct in the fact that if they don't get the banking reforms from the government then this thing goes no where IMO.
Callfoolsout I respect your thoughts and opinions. I choose to study for myself and form my own opinions. What I am talking about on the exchange of the notes is a precedent set in several countries redenominations. In fact the ones I studied were the specific ones that Shabibi told us that he was studying. Again I respect your opinion and thoughts but my research leads me to another possible outcome in this event if the government will get a move on!
That’s a pretty bold claim Highlander. Can you tell me what the precedent is you are referring to. I have studied redenominations quite extensively and I’m not aware of one single one that happened as you described.
DeleteI listened to the revalue.us call this evening, and if you want a bold claim, Kaperoni stated that the dinars we hold will be accepted by our Treasury as reserves, where it will then become a reserve currency, and no longer be a M2, therefore there are only 4 Trillion dinar left, but after pulling all the 3 zero notes out of circulation as he states, they now only have a few hundred billion left in circulation, and the rest is all USD. This is his theory as to why he defines deleting zeros as only the removal of the 3 zeros notes from circulation, and why they will soon be able to RV. Now in my opinion, THAT is what I would consider a bold claim. I wish I understood how he comes up with this stuff, but I think that he is clearly misinformed, or I wish he could provide the proof of such claims like this..
DeleteAnother interesting thing that Kaperoni stated on the call this evening, was that when they asked him about his thoughts on the new notes, he stated that he has read where they have contracted with companies to print the new notes, and they are discussing the designs, coins, etc. The funny thing, is last year he specifically stated to a number of people, including myself, that the notes were already printed, and even went as far as to state that he saw the notes for himself. I think that he forgot about that little statement he made last year when he answered their question tonight. Considering the answers he provided tonight, I would love to get his thoughts about the notes he claims he saw last year for himself, and why the change in tune.
DeleteKaperoni also made the claim today that Iraqis are being paid in lower denoms. If you figure they make about $30 a week then that would be about 100 bills or more per Iraqi. Can you imagine how chaotic that would be?
DeleteThat is interesting Sam. I was not aware of that claim he made today. If that were the case, then at $30 per week, it would actually take about 140 bills if they are paid in 250 notes. If they are paid in 50 dinar notes, it would take 700 notes to get to $30 worth. That would certainly be pretty chaotic.
DeleteDid he mention how he knows this to be true? Did he provide any sort of supporting information to this claim? Thanks!
JayP - http://theiraqidinar.com/2012/03/28/kaperoni-oom-32812/
DeleteI've already emailed this Iraqi and apparently there's nothing to this.
kaperoni: In recent days there has been some talk about a certain Iraqi citizen. That he went on a conference call and made statements that may have implied a LOP if you believed his understanding of the event.
kaperoni: Well, nobody knew that he also sent me an email with this little gem….
kaperoni: “they are paying all employees salaries with lower Denoms now.”
kaperoni: So what does that mean?
kaperoni: It means clearly that Iraqis for some time have been paid in 50, 250, and 500 dinars at the banks. We already knew that months ago…but this quote adds more factual support to what is happening. And this little piece of information goes a long way to support the theory that if the CBI was in fact removing the larger notes as we say, his statement supports that information and confirms we are accurate in “delete 3 zeros,” or now known as “lift 3 zeros”.
This is unfortunate that he maintains this story about his definition he made up about what it means when a country talks about deleting zeros from it's currency. I get the sense that he may have twisted some of the things that Tariq actually said to him, and in usual form, added quite a bit of speculation to meet his own agenda...
DeleteHe claims Tariq told him that in an e-mail.
ReplyDeleteI'll bet $1000 he misinterpreted what Tariq actually said.
Also Jay... what Highlander claimed above is that some country in that past had an RV of either 1,000% or 10,000%. I guess the only place that isn't bold is in dinarland where 100,000% to 1,200,000% RVs are "done deals"
Yes, I agree with you on your thoughts regarding Kap's interpretation to what Tariq was saying or implying, but this would be true to his form from what I have seen in the past.
DeleteRegarding what Highlander said, I understand what you mean, that regardless 1000%, or 10,000%, both is pretty bold. I will give her credit though, because she did admit that based on what we have read though, it certainly does sound a lot like lop, so she was very reasonable in her response.
DaveD you may consider it a bold claim but I don't and here is why. Turkey one year before their redenomination had an exchange rate to the dollar of 1.675 million Lira to 1 US dollar. When they did the redenomination they traded the old notes for the new notes at a ratio of 1 million Lira to 1 US dollar which is already an increase to the people. Turkey's opening exchange rate to the dollar after the redenomination was .75 on the new notes. I see that as a nice and reasonable increase myself as an investor. Russia did something very interesting back in the early 60's and according to government statements they duplicated the same process but with an increased time frame to 1 year to accomplish this. In the 1960 one they only allowed one day. Russia did a 3 zero removal but allowed for a 10 to 1 ratio on the notes. And on the bank accounts they did a sliding scale as follows: 1-3000 rubbles 1:1 3001-10000 rubbles 3:1 and 10001 or more at 10:1. The information on Russia I obtained from autobiographies from russian citizens that experienced it and I found them by googling. My point to this is the money that was made was dependant on the ratio of exchange from the old currency to the new currency in these countries. You have to look at those things specifically. Shabibi also mentioned the marshall plan which also carried a ratio on the exchange for the people. Please remember I said it is possible. No where in my statements did I say Iraq was going to do this I simply stated it is possible and it is their choice.
ReplyDeleteDaveD I am not here to make anyone believe anything. I only know what I have researched. If your research shows you something different that is fine. The beauty of this investment is anything is possible accept for a 22.00 rate like we heard last weekend! LOL If you don't believe you can make money on it that is fine. I am sure you have used your knowledge and research to adjust your financial position in this investment and you are comfortable. I have used my research to adjust my position according to my beliefs. As investors, each of us alone is responsible for our financial well being.
I, for one, agree with you, Highlander.....
ReplyDeleteDo you still agree D.C. After what Dave just posted below?
DeleteI believe this:
Delete"I am not here to make anyone believe anything. I only know what I have researched. If your research shows you something different that is fine. The beauty of this investment is anything is possible accept for a 22.00 rate like we heard last weekend! LOL If you don't believe you can make money on it that is fine. I am sure you have used your knowledge and research to adjust your financial position in this investment and you are comfortable. I have used my research to adjust my position according to my beliefs. As investors, each of us alone is responsible for our financial well being".
Your Turkish example is not true. Use this link, set it to 2004, and you can see the exchange rate for the whole year.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/currency
Or this link…
http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/
You can see that in Dec of 2004 the rate fell to about 1.35 Lira to the Dollar. That’s about 74 cents per lira. That’s pretty close to the 75 cent open you talk about.
It is also discussed here and stated that it would not have either a favorable or an unfavorable effect on exchange rates.
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/iletisimgm/NTL_faq.htm
Bottom line… Turkey did a straight 6 zero lop. 6 zeros off the exchange rate, 6 zeros off the currency. There was no increase or decrease for anyone holding the Turkish Lira.
Russia CONFISCATED notes in their 1947 and 1961 redenomination. The people lost money, they certainly didn’t make any. What you overlook is people were only allowed to exchange a certain amount. The rest was just taken.
The Marshall plan Germany redenomination was the same. People were only allowed to exchange 1000 of their old RM at the 10:1 ratio.
Korea did the same thing recently in their redenomination.
There are a number of examples of people losing money in redenominations due to extremely short exchange periods (making it impossible for most people to exchange) and a limit being placed on the amount allowed to exchange.
There are no examples of people making money on redenomination that I know of.
Bravo Dave D...... That's why I sold my holdings. Im thinking people outside of Iraq won't be able to exchange once they rd.
DeleteAgain DV had a member who was in turkey during the rd he explained it just as you did. Why all the misinformation.....well it's obvious
All the attempts to try and make iraqs magical rv work are pointless and debunked quickly with links. Sell while the gurus are still pumping.
Yes… I don’t think Iraq will do anything to make it tough on their own citizens. It will certainly be a neutral event them.
DeleteForeign holders of dinar may be a whole different story. There are Iraqi laws that limit the amount of currency that was supposed to leave the country. They obviously didn’t enforce those laws vigorously. Once the redenomination is started they sure could use those laws as a reason to shut down currency from re-entering the country.
I will be very surprised if banks accept a redenominated currency. I think dinar holders will be left to deal with the same fine upstanding people that go them into the dinar to get them out of the dinar. If the dealers have a way to get it back into Iraq for exchange, then they will offer the service. It surely wont be done for free. I would expect to see their buy back rates drop to about $500 per million dinar.
It kinda irks me that these douchebags are sitting in a position to probably make a boatload of money on the unwinding of this scam.
I don't think I would give a dealer the pleasure of making money off of buying my dinars back. I'm going to donate and mail my dinars to a U.S soldier if it comes to that.
DeleteDaveD I am sorry but you are the one who is not understanding what I am saying. I said the year prior not the month prior to the redenomination. See below.
Deletehttp://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/announce/2004/Economic-Outlook-CBRT.pdf
On page 26 of that central bank of Turkey document you will find this information.
"the Central Bank did not sell any foreign exchange in 2003 and 2004, even when the Turkish Lira went down to the level of 1,780,000 TL against the USD."
They clearly did not have a 1 million lira to the dollar exchange ratio for 2003 and most of 2004. So depending on when you bought it and how much an individual held or was able to save would determine if they gained any buying power or wealth out of the redenomination.
As far as Russia goes I stated that they only gave one day for the citizens to exchange in 1961. It was not a confiscation, however with it only being a one day chance, that is just about the same thing. But in the 1997 redenomination the government said they would use the same procedures but they would allow 1 year for the exchange this time.
I see what you are saying. Per the currency charts at Oanda the Lira hit 1.7 mill to 1 in March of 2003. 21 months later when they did the redenomination the rate had moved to 1.35 mill to one. So if you had taken a chance and horded Lira when it spiked to that highest level you could have made a little money. About 30%. But you could have made that money any time in they year prior to the redenomination. The redenomination itself was not what would have allowed a little profit. It was the natural increase in the value of the lira from 19 or 20 months prior. The redenomination was a straight revenue neutral event.
ReplyDeleteI think the dinar moved about 20% a few years back also.
The 1998 Russian redenomination was a classic 3 zero lop. The old exchange rate was right at 6,000 to 1. They introduced a new currency with a new rate of right at 6 to 1. 1000 old rubbles were worth one new rubble. Neutral event.
Just for info. The Rubble flopped after the redenomination.