I was privileged last week to conduct an interview with one of the good guys offering analysis on the IQD. I may not agree with everything he says, but I respect his views and his knowledge of the economics (wasn't about to try to debate him on that) and official documents and statements issued from Iraq. I especially appreciate his focus on true intel, meaning verifiable information rather than rumours or hearsay.
Sam I Am: Thanks so much for your time. You have been in the dinar community for several years and have earned a reputation as one of the best analysts of the economic aspects of the IQD. Tell us about your background in economics.
Enoch8: No formal degree in economics, but aced Econ 101 with a 4.0 grade average.
Enoch8: I have been a licensed contractor, a small time builder and developer in Arizona for most of my career, and come from a family of contractors, so well versed in business.
Enoch8: I have been in leadership roles as Arizona Area Coordinator in Public Information, to a very large non profit organization, (over 2 million members), holding numerous offices, and have worked with Intelligence and Research Teams on very large political groups, as a political activist.
Enoch8: I have served the Arizona Court System as an instructor, to a College Course for the Mohave County Court System, in my capacity as Arizona Area Coordinator for Public Information, Area Treatment Facilities and Area Correction Facilities Coordinator, leading to be invited by the Mohave Co Courts to instruct a class for their required courses as officers of the courts.
Enoch8: This was a volunteer position, not to be mistaken with a professional post.
Sam I Am: Have you ever made any money from a dinar related business or website?
Enoch8: No
Enoch8: Friends have paid me a small sum, to get dinar for them, but it was to cover expenses like gas, to pick it up, personally.
Sam I Am: And how did you come to invest in dinar?
Enoch8: I first heard about Dinar, listening to a radio talk show in April 2004, driving home from a weekend long Area Assembly, doing some of that volunteer work.
Enoch8: The show was called the "Collector's Coach" hosted by Jack DeAngelis.
Enoch8: I called into his show and got some dinar, then started making contacts on the internet and Ebay to get more Dinar.
Enoch8: He and I became great friends.
Enoch8: I drove to his studio when he was still in Costa Mesa and visited him at that studio.
Enoch8: Interesting man, for sure.
Sam I Am: How did you get started with dinar forums?
Enoch8: We have a neighbor who is a VP at Chase, who was sending me some emails, that her friends at the bank were getting excited about the news in Iraq.
Enoch8: One of our other friends who we introduced to Dinar, was calling me regularly, to tell me, he had been hearing a revaluation for over 1 Dollar was imminent, all through 2008, as the values were indeed increasing, that year.
Enoch8: So we signed up on 2 different forums and started reading posts and frequenting chats, etc.
Sam I Am: What is your opinion about the information being shared in these forums?
Enoch8: I have of course, always enjoyed the positive attitude in most all the forums.... and one cannot help but admire the energy.
Enoch8: As for the information, it seemed like there was always a promise of what seemed to me, to always be, RV in the next few days and at a rate, that seemed wildly beyond my expectations.
Enoch8: Not sure that answers your question....
Sam I Am: that's fine
Sam I Am: In your opinion what is the most that Iraq could support right now with a straight up RV?
Enoch8: OK..... it is a tricky question and might depend on some factors.
Enoch8: They can support whatever Exchange Rate they want. But that is not the issue.
Enoch8: The real issue and question should be, "How much buying power with the currency liability can Iraq support?"
Enoch8: Do they dedollarize? Yes? No?
Enoch8: How quickly can they institute a viable Primary Bond Market and how much real demand is there in the Secondary Markets?
Enoch8: These are critical to drawing down the circulation, in a manner of simplicity.
Enoch8: But it is not all that simple.
Enoch8: As to an exchange rate..... I have always held, that the Ministry of Planning did a Feasibility Study and literally told us their ideal Exchange Rates projected.
Enoch8: That was $1.13
Enoch8: Want more?
Sam I Am: sure
Enoch8: OK..... Al Saleh, one of the Deputy Governors of CBI, recently projected the possibility , in an example, he reported to the press, that they were considering $1.30 as an exchange Rate, in part of the CBI Plan.
Enoch8: Since, they have also told us, it would be as simple as a 1000 to 1 Redenomination, which would at today's rate would be $.86.
Enoch8: I think he was using that as an example.
Enoch8: My research added to and supported by other fantastic researchers, lead me to believe, that about $1.00 is very close to real feasibility, because Iraq, unlike Kuwait, for example, plans on becoming a stronger entity as an Emerging Market Economy, to exporting non oil goods.
Enoch8: That means they will need a lower Exchange Rate, to compete with other such exporters, than the larger rates of total oil export countries, like Kuwait.
Sam I Am: What would their money supply total need to be in order to achieve that?
Enoch8: It depends on whether or not they are increasing the value or just the exchange rate.
Enoch8: There is a huge difference, most of us either are not aware of, or just refuse to discuss.
Sam I Am: Are you saying it depends on whether they RV or lop?
Enoch8: OK.... that is a simple way to put it, so I want to be more specific to this as to understanding the difference.
Enoch8: How can I put this simply?
Enoch8: OK..... Increasing the exchange rate, also increases the value, as long as they do not demonetize the old currency, as is typically the case with a Redenomination as opposed to a simple change or increase in the rate of exchange.
Enoch8: By increasing the value, that means, the value of the entire money stock in print, increases.
Enoch8: In most redenominations, that is simply not the case.
Enoch8: Example:
Enoch8: Let us say, there are 30 trillion IQD in existence.
Enoch8: As stated by CBI.
Enoch8: At today's rate, that has a value, (Buying Power) or purchase power parity, of about $26 Billion US Dollars.
Enoch8: In a straight up Redenomination of 1000 to 1, the large base is demonetized to create only 1/1000th of the size of the circulation at 1000 times the exchange rate, which is still only valued at the same $26 Billion US.
Enoch8: So..... back to your question....
Enoch8: The value of the Money Supply, could be increased to as much as $30 Trillion US Dollars and that would get us to $1.00 to 1 IQD.
Enoch8: As we just discussed, the value at present is only $26 Billion..... so to be $1.00 in Revaluation, the supply would have to be valued at $30 Trillion, unless they remove a lot from circulation.... which creates a quandary.
Enoch8: What is removed..... STILL IN EFFECT,MUST BE COVERED by something of equitable value, before it can be removed from circulation, or it is not a revaluation but is merely a redenomination.
Enoch8: That means in a nut shell.... for us to be paid real money for our Dinar, it MUST Be COVERED in REAL VALUE or Consideration.
Enoch8: (Not to be confused with CBI paying for it with US Dollars or other money.)
Enoch8: They simply do not have it and it does not work that way.
Enoch8: But it still MUST BE COVERED with some form of consideration.
Enoch8: That is typically done with Bonds and Bills, etc. which removes the liability of circulation, but in fact converts non liquid asset into real tangible equity and liquidity.
Enoch8: This is where it gets complicated.
Enoch8: So I stop here for now.
Sam I Am: Okay
Sam I Am: So in your opinion what's the likelihood of an RV or an RD or a hybrid?
Sam I Am: 1/3 for each?
Enoch8: No, not equal chances at all.
Enoch8: CBI has submitted their proposal to GOI and they have been working on that in conjunction with MOP and Ministry of Finance, since about 2005, when CBI was charged by GOI to draft a plan.
Enoch8: That was submitted to Counsel of Ministers earlier this year, 2011 and was approved in about May, by the Ministers.
Enoch8: At that point it was stated it went to Parliament.
Enoch8: Now, here is something of interest as to why that is.
Enoch8: Apparently, in the proposal, there must be some form of GOI approval, my guess is to create a GOI Bonds program, beyond the authorization of CBI.
Enoch8: That tells me, it is likely, they intend to increase liquidity and the actual overall value of the money supply, which is good news for us.
Enoch8: This is supported by additional information, that in fact, there has been also a plan in the works since art least 2005, to pattern after Japan post WWII Gov. Bonds and Securities Markets.
Enoch8: That was reported earlier this year and last year, with some clear definitions and is also supported by Bank of International Settlements documents, as to how liquidity is raised by the Emerging Market Economies of the world, in real terms, with real examples.
Enoch8: I sent you those links.
Enoch8: They are pdf format
Sam I Am: right
Sam I Am: Do you believe that new, lower denom IQD were printed in 2003 and have been stored for eight years awaiting the RV?
Enoch8: No
Enoch8: The original printing was the US State Dept. involved... and did not have the since required 3 languages on them.
Enoch8: So they could not have been, or they would have 3 languages on the large ones as well.
Sam I Am: I've noticed that most of what you say can be backed by documents or statements coming from Iraq that are verifiable. What do you think about "intel"?
Enoch8: Verification of documents and cross referencing even articles and news reports with facts, IS Intel.
Enoch8: Unverified recon, is typically 80% disinformation or even intentionally planted misdirection, and is worthless, until it is cross referenced, researched and verified.
Enoch8: Most sources are subject to be fed false rumor as intel, much as the enemy on the battlefield plants misdirection and false data in troop movement and strength.
Enoch8: This is also true in real life, that most so called intel is mere conjecture at best.
Sam I Am: So a lot of the so called intel that we're hearing is disinformation coming from higher up?
Enoch8: In fact..... the point of origin of intel, as it goes..... the higher the sources.... the greater the likelihood of false intel or even high society gossip, is inevitable.
Sam I Am: Do you consider yourself a religious person?
Enoch8: Spiritual..... not a bit religious...... at least not on purpose.
Sam I Am: Do you believe that some people use religion to pump the dinar?
Enoch8: Well..... maybe not so much intentionally, but I would caution, that religion has been cover as a cloak to malicious intent, more often than we would like to believe.
Enoch8: Jones Town is a great example.... of people who were genuinely zealous about their faith.
Sam I Am: okay
Sam I Am: One last question ... Look into your crystal ball and tell us where we will be with this investment a year from now
Enoch8: 2 Parts..... 2 viable outcomes.
Enoch8: CBI gets the vote and we get a Redenomination, Jan. 1 2012.... or shortly thereafter..... with some form of increase in value of the circulation, with it possible we are allowed as high as a 1 to 1 redemption before it is demonetized, maybe only a 10 to1 or 100 to 1 allowance, at about $1.00 or thereabout.....
Enoch8: OR-
Enoch8: They do not get approval of this plan and CBI is forced to increase the value in small amounts throughout 2012 and they do it. Jan 2013.
Enoch8: I doubt seriously if they do this mid year for accounting purposes.
Enoch8: 95% or more of all researched countries who do a Redenomination, do so in the 1st 2 years of a new administration and also do so on about Jan 1st.
Enoch8: One side note, if you do not mind.....
Sam I Am: ok
Enoch8: The higher the new rate..... the greater the real likelihood of a lop. That is a fact.
Enoch8: The other option is so bad I do not want to talk about it.... because the only way we see over $3.00 is if we also see a total free fall of the US Dollar.
Sam I Am: So the predictions of a $3 - $8 RV?
Enoch8: No way, unless economic doomsday is tomorrow.
Sam I Am: okay, thanks again for your time and your take on the dinar
Enoch8: Any time, my friend.
Sam I Am: and you are definitely NOT a douchebag!
Enoch8: (whew)
Sam I Am: lol
Enoch8: Thank God! LMAO
Addressing the hype surrounding the Iraqi dinar to prevent more people from being misled about this investment.
We will be updating this blog periodically so please join to be notified about the updates.
Excellent interview....thanks so much for the info on your site!
ReplyDeleteThe rate will be $1.17, after they remove the three zeros. I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night, but I do have a PhD in Economics, have worked for one of the Federal Reserve Banks and The Bank of England. The current level is artificially supported and if allowed to float it would actually drop. I cannot tell you how absurd it is to think that within the next 50 years the Dinar will be (in current denominations) worth over a penny. Iraq is a poor country, better than 90% of their economy is selling natural resources, and that, oil, one that faces a very uncertain future. They can't increase production without affecting price, and they don't have anything else that the world markets want much and is not available elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at the truly wealthy nations of the world, and what do they have in common? Economies based upon things made from natural resources and service businesses. Countries that have stable, predictable and functioning governments, military security and a history of stable property law.
Iraq, on the other hand, has a GDP of less than $2000 per capita (right up there with Bangladesh and Angola), a border with a superior and possibly hostile military power, a government that can't agree on days of the week and is very likely to fall within any given year and a one product economy that can be crippled by a small band of people with a few truckloads of TNT. A RV of he kind the gurus etc... are talking about is not quite as likely as UFOs landing on the White House Lawn.
Gullible fools, and the storytellers who have been scamming them for years, that's the Dinar World.
F8....some of us who invest in both currency, bonds, and stocks, and who have, with eyes wide open, thrown some disposable money at this high risk venture with NO expectations are a bit uncomfortable being considered "gullible fools". Please don't generalize in your judgements...I've been investing in all forms of risks for 40+ years, and know to do so with great investigation of potential. "Disposable" is the key. And.....the phrase "gullible fools" is just rather immature coming from someone so educated.
ReplyDeleteAs a real investment, it has paid normal kinds of returns, off the top of my head, it's up 8% APY over the last 8 years maybe? It's a bit risky for that return, and as the last week or so have shown it's really risky relative the the very real chance the government could fall, a move likely to make them completely worthless. But anyone who fell for the "it's gonna pay off a dollar to the dinar" or similar, what besides gullible fools would anyone be? The Iraqi M3 has gone from 27 Trillion to over 40 Trillion in 2011, what exactly about Iraq making their money supply almost 3x the US GDP overnight remotely possible? Do you not realize that for the Dinar to reach $3 (as many sites state will happen any day now) would require more money that actually exists? Do you not realize that the higher any RV rate the worse it will be for the Iraqi economy?n You do know that whatever they would RV the currency for, they have to have the DOLLARS, EURO or other hard currency to pay out? The whole scenario is about as likely as a kid with a lemonade stand buying out Microsoft, it JUST CANNOT HAPPEN. I appreciate it if you were playing for the 8% play, but as I said before, it will be 50 years or more before the Dinar reaches a penny without a re denomination.
ReplyDeleteAnd you do realize, don't you, that when a country replaces their currency, it is common for them to restrict how much can be exchanged by foreigners? That since at least this current series was introduced that it has been illegal for the most part to take physical dinar out of Iraq and would be normal for them to not allow you to bring any, or any over a nominal amount, back into Iraq to exchange them?
What will the Dinar Millionaires do when the new notes come out, the old ones expire in 6 months and you cannot exchange them anywhere besides Iraq and also you cannot enter Iraq with more than a million dinar? ($1,000 give or take) This not only could happen, it likely will. Dinar forum readers should spend less time debating whether any dinar profits are capital gains (if you have physical possession, they're not) and start wondering what they're gonna do when the Iraqi government imposes a 50% tax on any exchanges by foreigners.
I try to keep an open mind, but really, there is so much absurdity in the forums about dinar that it's hard keep a straight face.
F8...I don't know that I even consider this an "investment". For me, it was a crap shot...and again, disposable. Clearly you are a low risk type investor, and that is fine. My investments range from safe to high risk. If I throw $1000 dollars at the Dinar and lose it all, again....it's disposable.
ReplyDeleteAnyway...Merry Christmas to you from a gullible fool....
Chew on this....the Iraqi money supply is now 40 trillion dinar (up from 27 trillion a year ago), the Kuwaiti money supply is just 27.5 billion. So for Kuwait to redeem every dinar they have in circulation at $3.50 each, it would cost them $96.5 billion, a figure they can come up with, and without much difficulty, from current revenues (and they have foreign reserves of $24 billion on hand). For Iraq to redeem their Dinar at $3 per, would take $120 trillion, more money than actually exists in the world, just short of twice the GLOBAL GDP, now that's just insane. And remember, to redeem these notes, that money would be leaving Iraq, hardly something good for Iraq or the Iraqi people, so let's just quit talking about how good it would be for them, it wouldn't.
ReplyDeleteAlso, 92% of Iraq's economy is from the export of oil. Less than half of Kuwait's economy is oil exports and more than 51% is from services. Like I said somewhere else, the countries that are really rich are not selling their natural resources to others, they USE them to create new wealth.
So, the question remains, if there is an RV, where does the money come from? Answer, it doesn't, because that much money doesn't even exist and Iraq isn't going to have it or anything like it in your grandchildren's lifetime.
F8. The money supply is being reduced, whether by 'raising' the zero's, removing the notes, or changing the exchage rate. While 40 trillion may be your number, I too agree that a RV at such levels is proposterous. We will see the money supply in the Billions in the future. However, prior to the War, the exchange rate, and the value of the dinar was much higher than now as I'm sure you are aware. Thus, it is my belief the Iraqi government wants a currency more substantial that what was artificially given to them during wartime events. That value may be a U.S. penny or dime, but I do see a value increase sometimes in the next 2 years.
ReplyDeleteI bought this investment expecting a penny after 5 years. I do think that number still comes into fruition.
Just a thought, but if you see this investment and our involvement as foolish, why write your commentary here. Why do you care? In my opinion, nothing you could really say to any dinar holder would cause them to sell. So why write, why not let us all lose our money? Why not just let us smile in our make believe world till we learn the horrific truth? You may feel as if you are helping some to find the truth, thus your motivation. However, I somewhat doubt anyone gets out of this investment because of your words from someone they don't know, who goes by F8.. Just my opinion of course.
Best regards, bye the sea
Im going to have to agree with F8. I really think a lot of people want to live in a fantasy about the Dinar and a possible RV soon. After I did quite a bit of research Ive learned that there is quite a bit of disinformation floating around in order to keep Dinar sales strong. Most of the "Gurus" are the same people who post on various sites claiming to have "intel". Its 90% inaccurate when you speak with people who are from Iraq. I sold most of my Dinar a few months ago when I actually spoke with someone who knows the real Adam Montana (fictitious name) in WI of the Dinar Vets site. You would be shocked if you knew who he really was. If you have a significant amount of Dinar do some serious research about who owns a lot of these sites and think about selling a some of it.
ReplyDeletemr.x I sure wish you'd drop me a line. I'd love to discuss this Adam Montana thing.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with FB. Nothing but fantasy out there in the Dinar World and oh yeah, a lot of scam artists that are making boo coo money at the expense of the gullible.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=07BAGHDAD4058
ReplyDeletethe above link is a confidential report from wikileaks regarding the IQD...it is an interesting read and gives great clarity about the auctions and Iraq's "crawling peg" monetary policy.