I was reading his rate prediction and I just don't understand how the math works:
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"Let’s say there is a billion USD worth of Dinar out there right now, or 1 trillion IQD. The CBI pays $2.25 for every $3 worth of Dinar, then resells it the next day for $3. That’s a profit of $75 billion just on the spread. Not bad, right? The problem is it cost them 225 billion to do that… and that 225 billion goes right into the “debt” column."
1 trillion IQD at 3 USD per dinar (minus 25% spread) is 2.25 trillion, not 225 billion.
And for the 10 cent RV:
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"the CBI makes 250 million in the first 90 days at an expense of only 1 billion. This puts their debt on this transaction at only 750 million… a far cry from the 225 billion in the $3 RV!!!"
1 trillion IQD at a 10 cent RV is 100 billion, not 1 billion.
At first I just thought there was some mechanism in there that I didn't understand, but one of his sets of numbers is 10x less than you would expect, and the other set of numbers is 100x less than you would expect, so now I'm just confused. Does anyone understand this?
I also don't understand what he means when he says:
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"An instantaneous RV to $3.00 will create a ton of wealth – coincidentally, probably about the same amount of wealth that they lost when Saddam Hussein was taken out of power and the value of the Iraqi Dinar plummeted to mere pennies!"
Saddam was taken out of power in 2003. According to the CBI the exchange rate in 1995 was already 3,000 to 1. Is he saying the CBI is putting out false information, or is there something else I don't understand here? Thanks for any help, I'm geniunely confused about all this stuff.
Now for Adam's response:
I didn't pull a calculator out at all when I was writing the thesis, and it's true I may have mixed up my billions, millions, or trillions. In all honesty, I simply didn't care if the numbers were 100% accurate because my intention was not to present a mathematically precise prediction...
All of the numbers I used were pulled out of the air for one purpose: to illustrate a point.
If you put your fancy calculator down and just pay attention to the logic behind my theory, then you should be able to understand the point I was making and I have accomplished my goal.
Regarding the actual timing of the decline of the value of the Dinar - come on guys, seriously?! Again, I was making a point and although I didn't cite exact dates, the timeframe is still accurate for the purpose of my article.
Amazing, isn't it? Adam is essentially admitting that he pulled these numbers out of his arse. This "successful entrepreneur" who graduated from Harvard and is married to an accountant can't keep track of millions, billions, and trillions. And on top of that he doesn't even consider it necessary. "Put your fancy calculator down". Gosh, Paw!!! Reckon mebbe we oughtta start cipherin' the good ol' fashion way like Jethro? LOL! And he expects people to pay him for investment advice? When will this charade end, Adam? Just admit you don't know what you're talking about, refund the money to the poor schmucks who thought that you did, and call it a day.
I'm liking people speaking their minds...
ReplyDeleteI will link to you from my Iraqi Dinar Guru Roast blog.
myfatnose.blogspot.com
All the best to ya! Go RV!
I agree with you that some of the osi stuff sounds shady. Here is the scenerio-post RV if he ends up ripping people off-he will have trouble sleeping at night. Thinkin who will be on his track next-Several people have signed up for VIP/OSI.
ReplyDeleteHere is what I believe..I don't think Our Gov't will pull out of Iraq in December and leave Iraq with worthless currency. The country will flop and all of the Soldiers lives and US Debt will be for nothing. Somehow there is something in it for the U.S.A.-I think the RV is just the first step.
What r ur thoughts??
Keep up exposing the Guru's out there-It opened my eyes!
I think the RV is hype. If they RV it will likely be a small adjustment to ward off inflation. I think it's much more likely that they will re-denominate as they have been telling us for some time, and then maybe an RV up to a dollar. I do agree that we won't let Iraq fail, but we will have to depend on troops in Kuwait and Turkey because I do expect us to follow through on our promise to pull out in Dec.
ReplyDeleteI think Adam knows that there won't be any substantial RV and is planning on never having to make good on his promises. (See his comment in chat a couple of weeks ago about "most bets are off" if there's a lop.) If there is an RV all he has to do is come up with some lame excuse about how it's no longer feasible and refund the money for the post-RV stuff. The VIP money he keeps, along with his presumed millions upon cashing in his dinar.
He makes his money on the VIP stuff and the seemingly endless network of websites. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even own any Dinar.
ReplyDeleteThe value of the total supply of Iraqi Dinar has to be equal to or less than the amount of foreign currency reserves of the CBI.
I'm constantly amused by the people saying that the Iraqi people need this to happen. Do they not realize that the money they hope to be making when the big RV happens is money that Iraq has to pay out? Where do they think the money is coming from, the Dinar Fairy? every Dinar that is cashed in, ultimately will be paid for by the CBI, no way around it. Iraq needs the Dinar to stay cheap, any RV would bankrupt the country.